Adam took five of seven disputed games from me last week to push his lead to six games ahead of me. Joe was able to get picks made last week, but did not make publishing time to pass them along; he did however leapfrog me to put me back in the basement of the group. Geoffrey maintains a two game lead among the group.
You can view how we've picked in relation to each other here. Again, hero picks continue to be the story. Adam has made some smart plays and also gotten incredibly lucky, but that combination has led to an 11-5 mark in those games; everyone else has a combined seven successful hero picks. I'm 0-7 in such games to start the year, which just... isn't sustainable. I'm hitting the copium hard, don't mind me.
This week, Adam and I disagree on a whopping eight games, Joe and I on just three, and the two of them on seven games out of 13. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Okay, maybe the two week stay in London did reset the Jags.
Adam: Jaguars. Not sure I follow the game masters and how they come up with lines; I like the 3.5, but I like it where Jax is favored, so this is an easy pick for me. I’ll take Sunshine on the road +3.5.
Joe: Jaguars.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Las Vegas Raiders @ Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Lucas: Raiders. While opinion in Chicago has soured quickly on Matt Eberflus, he might still be better than his counterpart in this game. Unfortunately for the Bears, Justin Fields' thumb is an issue, which means either a less than 100% Fields, Bagent getting his first career start, or if things get really dire and Chicago needs to go to their emergency option... *checks notes* Nathan Peterman or Trace McSorley? I'm sorry, Bears fans.
Adam: Bears. Going opposite my gut here. The Raiders have not had the best of starts, though neither have the Bears. But at least I know what we are going to get with the Bears, no idea sometimes with the Raiders. I’ll roll the dice and take the points.
Joe: Raiders.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)
Lucas: Browns. Aight, I'm out on the Colts.
Adam: Colts. Fresh off knocking off the 9ers, I see a mini regression here. Plus Tractor Trailer Taylor should be full up to speed and ready to rock everything in his way this week.
Joe: Browns.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (+8.5)
Lucas: Bills. Line's a little high, but I'm not gonna overreact to a narrow win over the Giants on Sunday Night. Buffalo by two scores, minimum.
Adam: Patriots. Again going against the grain for my pick. I know the Pats are crap this year, but the Bills haven’t been as lights out as you may think they should have been to this point. I’ll give ol’ Billy Boy another shot, roll the dice again, and take the points.
Lucas note: For reference: Buffalo's Pythagorean record so far is 5-1, so they've underperformed by a game.
Joe: Bills.
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants (+1.5)
Lucas: Commanders. I'm so glad Tyrod Taylor didn't die last week. I unfortunately don't think he has enough around him though.
Adam: Commanders. Divisional game, so should be close. Washington has had a few down weeks after a better than expected start. I see a rebound against the piss poor G-Men. They have linemen coming off the couch after all!
Joe: Commanders.Justin Pugh keeping it real in his first game back 😂 @JustinPugh
— NFL (@NFL) October 16, 2023
📺: #NYGvsBUF on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/7gJiGANIor pic.twitter.com/tDnrvHpEHP
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. This line seems about right; if you flipped the location and made Atlanta favorites by that margin at home I'd feel right about it. Taking the home team.
Adam: Buccaneers. Meh. Home team seems about right in this epic battle... [/s]
Joe: Buccaneers.
Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)
Lucas: Lions. This line, on the other hand, doesn't make sense. You have an underwhelming team going up against a team that for some reason still seems like the dark horse this year in the Lions. And if AI is anything to go by, that's a dangerous proposition.
Adam: Lions. No field goal fest for the Ravens this week. Not sure who will be in the backfield for the Lions, but I like them better than Baltimore this week.
Joe: Lions.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)
Lucas: Rams. Tough line that I could go either way on, but I just don't trust Matt Canada. Honestly, can you blame me?
Adam: Steelers. Not sure I like this pick; the Steelers have been meh this year, and the Rams have been Meh this year... but the Steelers are coming off their bye and I just like them a touch more.
Joe: Rams.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. Originally went Seattle here, but the Cardinals are feisty, and this line gives me the opportunity to hit on a backdoor cover. Taking the points and hoping maybe the NFL Cardinals can take a page from a certain NCAA Cardinal team that's, ya know, ranked number one in the country and can score, literally, at will.
Adam: Seahawks. This game will either be a last second game winner or a complete blowout. I’m leaning toward the blowout.A 174-yard, 3-touchdown effort at Millikin puts @football_ncc's DeAngelo Hardy on the @d3football Team of the Week for the 2nd straight game.
— NCC Cardinals (@NCC_Athletics) October 17, 2023
The Cardinals have been recognized on the weekly @NCAADIII honor roll for the last 3 weeks.
📰https://t.co/ewVvr8EN47#WeAreNC 🏈 pic.twitter.com/jLGscE3etK
Joe: Seahawks.
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos (+1.5)
Lucas: Packers. Okay, if you can't, coming off a bye after a mini-bye, beat a crappy Broncos team that has gotten lit up by literally everyone so far this season... fire everyone. Also, if I see Preston Smith lined up against a wide receiver again I'm going to flip a chair.
Adam: Broncos. Something has to change for Broncos. Not that Sean Payton’s job is in jeopardy, but something has to change. Russ cannot keep cooking up these burnt dinners...
Joe: Packers.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Less Taylor, more Merrianne Do, please. Thank you.
"This is me and I'm a crazy Chargers fan"
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) October 17, 2023
Merrianne Do #PMSLive pic.twitter.com/QSpK2BPiJ8
Adam: Chiefs. The Chargers just seem to be missing a step... or a... finger. Sorry, bad joke about Herbert’s broken non-throwing hand finger. But seriously, KC is the better team... might be in a... lavender haze. Sorry, bad joke.
Lucas note: Sir, you have exceeded your bad joke limit.
Joe: Chargers.
Sunday Night
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. This isn't an overreaction to the Eagles dropping their first game of the year; it's taking the point out that we had last week of the Eagles being a little underwhelming at times this year. Given that they're going up against the juggernaut that is the Dolphins offense, this could mean a losing streak. At least they have the Phillies. #bellgodong
Adam: Eagles. Philly with the surprise loss last week should rebound at home.
Joe: Dolphins.
Monday Night
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings (+7.5)
Lucas: Vikings. This is less an overreaction to the Niners inexplicably losing to the Browns over the weekend and more a reaction to the line. Yes, I realize I'm betting on Primetime Kirk Cousins, which is usually a poor choice, but the Vikings have at least been competitive this year as they've regressed to the mean in one score games.
Adam: 49ers. I don’t like the line. This is clearly the week of not liking the lines; this makes like five or six that I didn’t like. I could see this going either way, but like Philly, coming off the loss I see a rebound.
Joe: 49ers.
Records So Far
Lucas: 45-48 (6-9 last week)
Adam: 51-42 (9-6 last week)
Joe: 46-47 (8-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 54-39 (9-6 last week)
Jim: 50-43 (10-5 last week)
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