I increased my space from the cellar after last week, taking four of the seven disputed games with Adam. But I'm looking up at a majority of the field as I still haven't really recovered from my disaster Sunday a few weeks ago. You can view the standings here, bearing in mind a picking error has Adam's number off by one.
Kristen maintains her tenuous one game lead on her brother as the gains she made in the early slate on Sunday were wiped away by dinnertime. They now have Aiden and even Jen on their tails, the former of whom has been on something of a hot streak the last few weeks. You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here, noting that we continue to suck when we all come to an agreement after the Titans back door covered in their near victory across the pond.
Moving onto this week, Adam and I once again disagree on seven games out of 14. Let's get to the picks!
Thursday Night
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans (-7.5)
Lucas: Texans. I'm not really sold on the Brockening... not that I would have been sold on Tannehill either, but I like Houston to roll in this one.
Adam: Dolphins. Tough line. At home for Houston, but let’s look at the body of work this year so far: The Fins have wins over Tennessee, the Jets, Oakland, and Chicago; Houston has wins over Jacksonville, Buffalo, Dallas, and Indy. Neither is saying much... give me dem points.
Sunday Morning
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. I don't care that he was awful and got benched for Cody Freaking Kessler. You don't bet against London Bortles. Give me the points.
Adam: Eagles. Bortles got benched in favor of Cody Kessler. Is there any more to say?Blake Bortles was benched Sunday, but next week the Jaguars head overseas. London Bortles has been tough to beat in recent years.— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 21, 2018
Blake Bortles Last 3 Seasons in London
W-L 3-0
Team PPG 36.0
TD-Int 8-1 pic.twitter.com/ySCPfO1MsM
Sunday, Early Afternoon
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Lucas: Jets. I wonder how hurt Khalil Mack is. Obviously enough that it's really had a detrimental effect on the Bears' defense. I'll take the points with that in mind.
Adam: Jets. Not a big fan of this line; would like it a point or two in either direction to make me feel better on whatever I would have picked. Mitch seems to be in a little bit of a funk and Mack is not running at 100%. I’ll take the points in a squeaker that the Bears win.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Andy Dalton is a reverse vampire; it's the only explanation for why he's pretty good during the day but sucks at night. And even as a reverse one, he's still better than a certain two other vampires... but not quite on the level of Alucard. (Note: video contains NSFW language and violence)
Lucas note: That's just over seven yards per attempt, a little below his season average. Despite that, he's tied for seventh in the league this year. Here's the full top ten via Pro Football Reference.
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-8.5)
Lucas: Browns. Cleveland continues to be snakebitten to a degree, but the Steelers should not be over a touchdown favorites. Not with Le'Veon Bell still missing in action.
Adam: Browns. Bell's still not back... this is starting to get a little out of hand, my fantasy season being screwed aside. I think the Steelers and the NFL have to take a hard look at this situation. This hold out could lead to others doing the same thing. And that is not good for football.
Lucas note: I don't necessarily disagree, but this is the only leverage the players have in a league run by egomaniac billionaires. This is really just the most extreme holdout we've seen, and I don't want to point out a pattern that may not exist yet.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. You really think Case Keenum can keep up with Frogger Mahomes?
Adam: Chiefs. It’s really hard to give 10-plus points, but man, does that KC offense look like a well-oiled machine.
Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Lucas: Lions. I keep underestimating Detroit... I should probably stop doing that.
Adam: Lions. I just don’t like Pete Carroll.
Lucas note: After all the potshots I took at Jim Caldwell over the last like four years, this is perfectly fair. Carroll is kind of a weasel.
Washington Redskins @ New York Giants (+0.5)
Lucas: Redskins. I keep missing on the Redskins, which of course means the Giants will win when Pat Shurmur repeats his end of game tactics against the Falcons; tactics which I disagreed with in real time but, it turns out, make mathematical sense.
Adam: Redskins.
Baltimore Ravens @ Carolina Panthers (+1.5)
Lucas: Ravens. I don't know that Cam and company have the horses to do enough damage on Baltimore's defense. Also, I'm not betting against the Justin Tucker Revenge Game.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders (+2.5)
Lucas: Colts. Adam, Joe, and I were texting back and forth on Monday about the Amari Cooper trade. With the bevy of first round picks, the Las Vegas Raiders might be AFC favorites in 2020... you know, assuming Jon Gruden knows what he's doing.
Adam: Raiders. With the first pick in the 2019 NFL draft, the Oakland Raiders select... the Alabama Crimson Tide. Jokes aside, the Amari Cooper trade may actually help the team.
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Rams (-9.5)
Lucas: Packers. This line is a point or two higher than I thought it was going to be. Combine that with a Packer team that's been pretty good off the bye under Mike McCarthy, a still kind of banged up Rams team, and the fact that I'M GETTING NINE AND A HALF WITH THE BEST QUARTERBACK IN THE LEAGUE? Come on.
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (-0.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I want to pass on this game, but I refuse to give Adam back the free point he gave me a couple weeks ago. And since I think the Cardinals are worse than the Niners, I'll take the road team in the pick 'em. I wonder if this will become a trend...
Adam: 49ers. In a pick ’em game, give me the Kittles TE combo with GrubbyHand 2.0 over DJ.
Sunday Night
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (-0.5)
Lucas: Saints. Look, if New Orleans can go into a tough place to play in M&T Bank Stadium and beat the top defense in the league, they can take care of one that hasn't played up to its reputation yet. Having a chance to erase January's heartbreak just makes this even better.
Monday Night
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (+14.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I'm not gonna lie; this line scares me a bit. But per Tuesday Morning Quarterback, the Bills are 3-27 in their last 30 tries against Tom Brady, and have lost six straight on Monday night. I'm not running away from those trends, especially not with Derek Anderson playing like non-2007 Derek Anderson.
Adam: Bills. Only in solidarity with my son, who I saw pick the Bills and even put in a score of 12-20 Bills! Wouldn’t that be a great score.
Lucas note: Godspeed, you two.
Records So Far
Lucas: 47-60 (7-7 last week)
Adam: 44-63 (6-8 last week)
Geoffrey: 46-61 (7-7 last week)
Joe: 54-53 (8-6 last week)
Aiden: 51-56 (9-5 last week)
Kristen: 55-52 (8-6 last week)
Jen: 50-57 (9-5 last week)
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