Thursday, November 1, 2018

2018 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 9

As the calendar turns to November, the halfway point of the NFL season is upon us as the coalition enters its ninth week of picking games against the spread!

Really, the only good news from last week is that I took five of the seven disputed games from Adam to open up a six game lead on him. Unfortunately for me, that six game lead is what's keeping me out of the cellar in the group. You can view the full standings here, bearing in mind that Adam has one more point on ESPN than he's supposed to due to an early picking error.

Meanwhile, we have a change at the top of the standings as Kristen's long run atop the standings comes to an end. She is now a game back of her brother Joe, who finally leapfrogged her, and a red hot Aiden, who has literally gone worst-to-first in the span of four weeks. You can see a breakdown of how we've all picked in relation to each other here, noting that we are still winless in consensus picks.

Moving onto Week 9, Adam's desperation to get out of last place has led him back to an old gimmick:
Once again I had a terrible week, so I am going to employ an older tactic of mine: opposite week. I will write my justification for one team, but actually pick the opposing team on ESPN. For example, if I pick the Bills to cover against the Bears, I would justify why the Bills will cover, but then actually pick the Bears on ESPN. This will be represented like this in each pick: Adam: Bills Bears.
This week, we disagree on seven games out of 13. Let's get to it!

Thursday Night

Oakland Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I'm just gonna take the home favorite and move on. This game sucks and is reason number 1,523,635 why Thursday Night Football is a terrible idea.
Adam: 49ers Raiders. Ah, the Battle of the Bay Area. I will actually be out there in a weekish to see my best friend get married. But I assure you no love will be lost in this game. Oakland stealing another first rounder by giving up arguably the best piece of the offense does not look favorable.

Sunday, Early Afternoon

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Redskins (-1.5)
Lucas: Redskins. Because we all know the Falcons will find some way to f*** this up like they have pretty much every other game this season and I don't want to keep underestimating the Skins like I was early in the year.
Adam: Falcons Redskins. The Falcons are coming off their bye week and playing an important game if they want any hope of getting to the playoffs. Ryan and Jones will (finally!) connect on a touchdown pass, and in the red zone too... what?!

Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills (+8.5)
Lucas: Bears. Better crank up the Metallica... for all the good it will do the Bills.
Adam: Bills Bears. The Bears have struggled a little of late, but turned it back on enough last week. The Bills on the other hand kept the GOAT and team to a series of four field goals until the 4th quarter on Monday night. And the Bears' offense is not quite as high powered.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns (+8.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. KILL THE HEAD AND THE BODY WILL DIE.
Adam: Browns Chiefs. He Gone. Hue Jackson gone. Hopefully this opens things up a little for the Browns and Baker can bake... no, not like Gordon…
Lucas note: I have no love for one Ken Harrelson, but I have to here.
Lucas note: And yes, I'm leaving the pot joke alone.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-4.5)
Lucas: Vikings. I cannot get a good read on this Detroit team, but the Vikings' defense has been all right this year. I'll bet on that in a tough division game, especially with freaking Golden Tate gone.
Adam: Vikings Lions. So it seems the Lions are shipping it in this year by trading away the star of their receiving corps. Minnesota, on the other hand, has arguably the best wideout in the league right now in Adam Thielen.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I whiffed on the Jets with the points last week, and even against a not very good Dolphins team, with all the injuries I shouldn't fall for that again.
Adam: Dolphins Jets. Ah, the 72 million dollar man may have finally found his forever home. I mean, how can the Fins be that smart? They brought back Smokin’ Jay last year... but alas, Osweiler will show his value, even if just a glimmer this Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Suddenly the Ravens are looking mortal, and if I'm getting a couple points you bet I'm going to take them.
Adam: Steelers Ravens. I am not too sure I understand the Ty Montgomery trade from the Ravens' side. I am sure the ownership knows what they are doing and specifically banking on that, but still not sure it makes sense to me, anyway.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. BAH GAWD THAT'S FITZMAGIC'S MUSIC!
Adam: Panthers Buccaneers. Tough line. Going to give Cam and crew a slight bump being at home, plus lightning does not strike twice; Fitzmagic will be Fitzfizzle in this game.

Sunday, Late Afternoon

Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Lucas: Texans. Riding the hot hand as long as I can, especially since Deshaun Watson has a new toy in Demariyus Thomas.
Adam: Texans Broncos. After losing Fuller for the season, the Texans make a splash in the open market with the acquisition of Thomas from the Broncos... wait, he just needs to change sidelines. Over/Under on the if he accidentally runs to the wrong side after a play: I’ll set it a 1.5, and you know Vegas has this line out there somewhere.
Lucas note: I can't find one anywhere, but I'll take the under. I know, I'm not adventurous.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I saw a stat I think on Monday night showing how all of these older quarterbacks are lighting up defenses in terms of touchdown passes, and Phillip Rivers is quietly right up there with the legends. I'll ride that here against the declining Seahawks.
Adam: Chargers Seahawks. In the midst of the trades taking place, I am sure many missed the news that the Seahawks dropped former Bears star Brandon Marshall. Though a stud on the field, at least in his prime, he was believed to cause many problems in the locker room, so maybe for the best.
Lucas note: Yeah... Marshall's kind of a locker room cancer after a while.

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
Lucas: Rams. LA got a little lucky against a well-prepared Green Bay team, but I still don't really have a ton of faith in a Saints defense that can be thrown on.
Adam: Saints Rams. Never bet against Brees at home in a shootout and a virtual pick ’em. Done.

Sunday Night

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots (-5.5)
Lucas: Packers. So glad Green Bay found a sucker to take Ty Montgomery. This makes watching this feel even better. My body is ready, MJ.
Adam: Patriots Packers. With the trading of Ty Montgomery and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix Green Bay is signaling that its season is all but over. You could say Green Bay has basically... packed... it in for the season with these moves. See what I did there? Dad joke.
Lucas note: 


Monday Night

Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I'm going with the theory that the 2018 Cowboys are the 2017 Jaguars in the sense that there's a pattern. They've laid eggs in their odd numbered games, while winning their even numbered ones. And against a Titans team that I'm not sold on that has also lost three straight... let's give it a go.
Adam: Cowboys Titans. Dallas fans are excited to see what newly acquired Amari Cooper can do for them. With a clear #1 in the wide receiver spot, it should open up the run game for Zeke just that much more. At home on Monday night? Should be a roll for Dallas.

Records So Far
Lucas: 53-68 (6-8 last week)
Adam: 47-74 (3-11 last week)
Geoffrey: 56-65 (10-4 last week)
Joe: 62-59 (8-6 last week)
Aiden: 62-59 (11-3 last week)
Kristen: 61-60 (6-8 last week)
Jen: 58-63 (8-6 last week)
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