Monday, May 7, 2018

2018 NFL Tournament of Champions: Group Play Week 1

We're well into the month of May now, and with that, it is time to begin the NFL Tournament of Champions!

A week ago I set the stage, as we have four new teams that did not compete in the first iteration of this tournament. But the setup last time was just a straight bracket. I have to expand this out and give teams a little longer to really determine who is the best.

I'm keeping track of the tournament through a new website this year, since Challonge was able to parse out a single round robin with giving every team and equal number of home games. TournamentScheduler, which I've used in the past for the last couple of NBA Tournaments of Champions, as well as to help build out the order of series for the MLB Tournament of Champions last year, has trouble with single round robins; it keeps one team on the left side of the matchups every time, which makes home/road games a problem.

The round robin portion of the schedule requires playing 312 games, which I think is few enough that I will keep track of individual stats for the entire tournament. All told, this tournament will take 335 games to decide a Champion of Champions, which is far fewer compared to other tournaments, especially the ones that have had pool play. You can find those stats here (please note that there may be a delay between the posting of game results and the updating of stats).

Since the NFL is played outdoors in almost every situation, weather will be taken into account from yesterday. All simulations for this tournament are provided once again by WhatIfSports.com. Without further ado... let the Tournament of Champions begin!


Pool A

@ '16 NE 13, '13 SEA 10 (OT)
Photo by Jim Rogash (Getty Images)
In a tightly contested defensive struggle, the Patriots scored on the opening possession and made it hold up for the rest of the half. Seattle answered to open the second half, using a short field and scoring 10 plays later to tie the game. They got deep into New England territory but had to settle for a field goal to make it 10-7 just seconds into the fourth. Inside of two minutes, New England got a big play to get into field goal range and had to settle for such with about a minute to play. In overtime after a New England punt, a Seahawk fumble deep in their own territory gave the ball back to New England, and Stephen Gostkowski nailed a 27 yarder to win the contest.

@ '87 WAS 10, '69 KC 6
The Chiefs owned the ground for much of the game and got a fairly early 3-0 lead, all the while holding the host Redskins in check before adding a long field goal to end the half up 6-0. Washington picked off Len Dawson on the second half's opening possession and turned it into a field goal of their own. The Skins struggled to get going against a fierce Kansas City pass rush until midway through the fourth, when Jay Schroeder found an open Gary Clark, who scampered downfield for a 53 yard touchdown to give Washington a 10-6 lead. Kansas City had a couple chances a little ways into Washington territory in the final minutes, but couldn't find the endzone.

@ '81 SF 10, '02 TB 7
The teams traded touchdowns in the opening frame, with Joe Montana capping an 11 play opening drive with a two yard strike to Mike Wilson. Tampa responded with a nine play drive of its own finished off by a 23 yard Michael Pittman run to tie it. The defenses settled in from here, with the Niners missing a pair of second quarter field goals before finally retaking the lead in the third after a couple long pass plays set up Ray Wersching to hit from 38 yards out. The squads traded third quarter turnovers, though the Buccaneers had a chance late in teh game to tie, but Martin Gramatica missed a 52 yard desperation try in the swirling winds as San Francisco held on to win.

@ '03 NE 27, '84 SF 9
This one seemed like a defensive struggle early, which included a goal line stand by the Patriots bridging the first and second quarters. Three drives later New England got on the board with a 46 yard field goal, though Ray Wersching responded with a 28 yarder of his own to tie the game at 3 just before the half. New England retook the lead with a 37 yard field goal late in the third, and after the Niners responded with a 50 yard field goal of their own to tie it at 6, Tom Brady took over, finding Antowain Smith twice, including for a 70 yard score to give the Pats a lead they would not relinquish.

@ '80 OAK 30, '72 MIA 17
The league's only undefeated team in history lost its Tournament of Champions opener and never led, as after forcing a three and out to open the game, Earl Morrall was picked off by Lester Hayes, who returned the pass 20 yards for an Oakland touchdown. The Dolphins would tie the game early in the second, but the Raiders answered with a punishing 10 play, 82 yard drive capped by a Mark Van Eeghen 19 yard touchdown run. Van Eeghen would score again early in the third and despite a Miami touchdown later in the frame set up by a massive punt return, Jim Plunkett put the game away late with a 61 yard touchdown pass to Cliff Branch.

'95 DAL 19, @ '77 DAL 16
Our first intrafranchise matchup results in the first road team victory of the tournament. The '95 team got on the board first with a 27 yard field goal set up by a 46 yard Emmitt Smith scamper, though the '77 Cowboys would answer with a field goal of their own early in the second. A Charlie Waters strip sack of Troy Aikman gave the '77 team the ball back, and Robert Newhouse took advantage with a 28 yard touchdown run, though Efren Herrera would miss the ensuring extra point. The '95 iteration would add a field goal right before the half to make it 9-6, then roared out of the gate in the second half, scoring a touchdown two a half minutes in, forcing a Tony Dorsett fumble, and tacking on a field goal to make it 16-9. The '77 Cowboys scored tied it in the fourth on a 15 yard strike from Roger Staubach to Drew Pearson, though the '95 Cowboys would march downfield for a 37 yard go ahead field goal with 1:56 left. The hosts were able to get within scoring range, but Efren Herrera missed a 58 yard tying field goal wide right, giving the '95 Cowboys the victory.

Pool B

'96 GB 17, @ '17 PHI 10
Remember, since Carson Wentz tore his ACL late last season, he was bumped from the default starting role for Nick Foles, who was absolutely awful in this one. He did enough, however, to lead the Eagles to a field goal on their first possession of the game and give Philly the early 3-0 lead. Brett Favre immediately responded with an 81 yard strike to Robert Brooks to take the lead for Green Bay. The Packers' defense tightened up from there and after an Edgar Bennett 43 yard scamper, two plays later Favre found Antonio Freeman for a 32 yard catch and run touchdown to make it 14-3. After the Packers' Chris Jacke missed a 42 yard field goal, Green Bay forced a LeGarrette Blount fumble and turned it into a 38 yard field goal that made it 17-3. Jay Ajayi would make it interesting late with a 54 yard touchdown run, but Green Bay burned a ton of time on the ensuing drive, though Jacke missed another field goal. Unfortunately for them Green Bay forced four straight incompletions to seal the game.

'71 DAL 26, @ '74 PIT 0
Photo from the Associated Press (Photographer uncredited)
Even overriding the default and starting Terry Bradshaw for the Steelers wasn't enough to prevent the onslaught. The Steelers got a takeaway on their first defensive snap, but couldn't take advantage as Roy Gerala missed the 50 yard field goal. The Cowbos responded with a 12 play drive that culminated in a 39 yard Mike Clark field goal to go up 3-0. They'd add another from 33 on the first play of the second quarter, and after pinning Pittsburgh deep, finally found the endzone as Roger Staubach hit Reggie Rucker from eight yards out. After the two minute warning, Terry Bradshaw was picked off by Dave Edwards, who ran it back 42 yards for a score and a 20-0 halftime lead. Dallas would add a pair of late field goals to pad their shutout victory.

'92 DAL 28, @ '70 BAL 3
Neither team got anything going in the first quarter, with both teams losing a fumble, but in the second the Cowboys finally got on the board about halfway through on a 38 yard Lin Elliott field goal. After forcing a three and out, the Cowboys tacked on a touchdown from two yards out as Troy Aikman hit Alvin Harper, though Elliott would miss the extra point. He would bury a 55 yard field goal at the halftime buzzer though to make it a 12-0 game. Issaic Holt picked off Johnny Unitas on the first drive of the second half, and Jay Novacek caught a six yard touchdown pass to make it 19-0. The Colts would answer with a field goal, but would surrender an early fourth quarter field goal followed by a touchdown after committing a turnover on downs.

'08 PIT 35, @ '06 IND 13
The Steelers ran roughshod over the Colts in this one despite falling behind 3-0 in the first on a 40 yard Adam Vinatieri field goal. Ben Roethlisberger hit Santonio Holmes for a 47 yard completion that helped set up a five yard Willie Parker touchdown to make it 7-3. A Bryant McFadden strip sack of Peyton Manning set up a short field for Roethlisberger, who hit Nate Washington for a 13 yard score to make it 14-3. The Colts would add another field goal, but they still couldn't stop the Steelers' ground game as Mewelde Moore punched one in from two yards out to make it 21-6. Moore and Parker would each add a rushing touchdown in the third quarter to make it 35-6. In garbage time the Colts completed the scoring with a Peyton Manning dumpoff to Joseph Addai, who rumbled 98 yards for a touchdown to narrow the margin.

'09 NO 20, @ '11 NYG 0
The Saints put up 13 points in the final 5-plus minutes of the first half, following up a Lawrence Tynes 50 yard missed field goal. John Carney hit a 42 yarder to make it 3-0, New Orleans forced a three and out, and Drew Brees marched the Saints 79 yards in just under three minutes, with Pierre Thomas punching it in from 11 yards out for a 10-0 edge. A ruthlessly efficient defensive stop gave the Saints just enough time to tack on a 48 yard field goal to make it 13-0. Marques Colston would haul in a 25 yard touchdown in the third quarter to get us to the final margin as the Giants would miss a field goal to open the fourth.

'86 NYG 24, @ '93 DAL 9
The '86 Giants made it a clean sweep for the road teams in Pool B's first round, after breaking the ice late in the first half as Maurice Carthon punched one in from 18 yards out to cap a nine play drive. This left enough time for the Cowboys to tack on a field goal with under a minute to go, and they'd pull within one on the opening drive of the third with a long drive, but the Giants rumbled 62 yards in just over five minutes to pull back away again as Lionel Manuel hauled in a 16 yard touchdown from Phil Simms. The Cowboys would make it 14-9 early in the fourth, but after marching near midfield with about two minutes to play, they turned it over on downs, and two plays later the Giants put it away with a Joe Morris 39 yard touchdown run.

Pool C

'75 PIT 34, @ '14 NE 15
In a drizzle, the Patriots were able to take an early 3-0 lead after a 15 play, six and a half minute drive, but it was short lived as the Steelers came down to answer with one of tehir own. New England answered with yet another, but then the Steelers finally broke the plane with a Rocky Bleier three yard plunge to cap a 13 play, 73 yard drive. Stephen Gostkowski would add his third field goal of the half right before the break to make it 10-9, but Pittsburgh started to pull away as Terry Bradshaw and John Stallworth connected a couple times, including from 19 yards out for a touchdown. New England had to settle for a field goal in response, and the Steelers all but put the game away with an early touchdown in the fourth. Again, New England settled for three, and that was all they could muster offensively.

@ '90 NYG 21, '88 SF 13
A couple massive runs, one by Rodney Hampton for 51 yards and a 33 yard touchdown by David Meggett, got the Giants on the board early, and they added on another to open the second quarter to make it 14-0 when Phil Simms hit Mark Bavaro from 21 yards out. The 49ers got back into it with a Mike Cofer 49 yard field goal, three straight Simms incompletions, and a 54 yard touchdown from Joe Montana to John Taylor. A field goal late in the third narrowed the gap to one, but after San Francisco punted near midfield, the Giants went 77 yards in five plays, capped by backup Jeff Hostetler finding Rodney Hampton for a 49 yard touchdown. The Niners would get to the Giant 31 before turning the ball over on downs, and a desperation drive with 18 seconds left ended when backup Steve Young was sacked on the game's final play.

'66 GB 24, @ '07 NYG 17
Brandon Jacobs picked up a 40 yard touchdown run about five minutes into the game to give the Giants the early lead, but they couldn't take full advantage as Dave Robinson picked off Eli Manning a few drives later and set the Packers up for a 30 yard field goal. Green Bay took the lead following a Dave Robinson interception, with Paul Hornung punching it in from five yards out. Late in the half the Giants blocked a Packers punt and took advantage, with Jeremy Shockey picking up a 21 yard touchdown grab to give the Giants a 14-10 halftime edge. Late in the third David Tynes added a 39 yard field goal to make it a seven point game, but Bart Starr led the Packers back in the fourth, taking advantage of a short field to tie the game with 7:37 let on a Jim Taylor one yard touchdown run, and after forcing a three and out, Starr tore apart the Giants' secondary, culminating in an 18 yard strike to Boyd Dowler with 2:18 to play. Doug Hart picked off Eli Manning for the fourth time in the game with just over a minute to play to effectively end the contest.

'85 CHI 19, @ '12 BAL 9
In a battle of defenses, the Ravens struck first with a 38 yard field goal about ten minutes into the game, though the Bears got those points right back on the next drive. Tucker would miss a 51 yarder on the next drive, and the Bears took advantage as Jim McMahon picked apart the Ravens secondary, finding Walter Payton for an eight yard score to make it 10-3. Chicago would add a field goal with half a minute to go to make it a 10 point game at the half. They'd add another field goal midway through the third from 49 yards out, though Ray Rice got Baltimore back into field goal range, and Justin Tucker hit from 48 to bring it back to a ten point game. Tucker hit again from 35 early in the fourth to make it a one score game, but McMahon again picked apart the defense, took time on the clock, and got Kevin Butler in range for a 34 yard field goal that proved to be the final margin.

@ '82 WAS 13, '10 GB 10
The Packers forced a three and out on the opening drive, and the Packers took advantage immediately, marching 61 yards in eight plays with Aaron Rodgers finding James Jones for a 16 yard screen pass touchdown. The Redskins had an answer though, going 69 yards in just seven plays capped by a 23 yard strike from Joe Theismann to Art Monk to tie the game. Green Bay retook the lead early in the second with a field goal and got an interception to seize momentum, but Brandon Jackson fumbled on the ensuing play from scrimmage and the Redskins recovered, then built off a 33 yard completion to Joe Washington to set up the tying field goal. Neither offense could muster much after that until the fourth, when Washington marched 63 yards in ten plays to set up a 32 yard Mark Moseley field goal to put the Skins up three. Green Bay couldn't get anything going on offense the rest of the way, not getting any closer than the Washington 41 as the Skins walked away with the victory.

@ '00 BAL 19, '76 OAK 16
The Raiders had command early in this one as Clarence Davis swept one in from 24 yards out to get Oakland on the board first, though Fred Steinfort missed the extra point. A Baltimore response fizzled near midfield, and the Raiders picked up 84 yards in just six plays, capped by Mark Van Eeghen rumbling 26 yards for a score to make it 13-0. Baltimore sandwiched a 45 yard Steinfort field goal with a pair from Matt Stover from 42 and 31 yards to make it 16-6 at the break. Neither offense could get anything going until late in the third when the Ravens sustained some rhythm and cashed in on the first play of the fourth with a one yard touchdown from Trent Dilfer to Jamal Lewis. After forcing another three and out, the Ravens came right back down, moving the ball 60 yards and taking over six minutes off the clock to give Matt Stover a shot at a 50 yard field goal, which he nailed to tie the game. On the ensuing play Chris McAlister picked off Ken Stabler

Pool D

@ '15 DEN 30, '04 NE 17
The Broncos got off to a good start in their first Tournament of Champions game, driving 41 yards in seven plays on the opening drive of the game to set up a 41 yard Brandon McManus field goal. After forcing a New England three and out, the Broncos picked up big chunks, with Ronnie Hillman gaining 35 yards on a draw to help set up a 30 yard strike from Peyton Manning to Emmanuel Sanders to make it 10-0. On the ensuing drive, Tom Brady found David Patten for a short gain, but Patten fumbled and the Broncos recovered. Seven plays later, Manning found Bennie Fowler from 12 yards out and it was a 17-0 game. The Patriots finally woke up as Corey Dillon broke a 55 yard run, and four plays later Brady found Daniel Graham from five yards out to get on the board. They'd connect again on the next drive to cut the lead to 17-14, and early in the third quarter the Pats tied the game on a 20 yard Adam Vinatieri field goal. Denver got good field position on the next drive to help McManus put the Broncos in front again with a 52 yard field goal. The Broncos put the game away with a quick touchdown drive late in the fourth, and added a field goal at the buzzer to make it a 13 point game.

'89 SF 23, @ '05 PIT 20
Photographer uncredited (photo from ESPN.com)
John Taylor recorded the first special teams touchdown of the Tournament of Champions, returning a punt 78 yards for a touchdown to get the 49ers on the board first. The Steelers got into the red zone quickly but had to settle for a Jeff Reed field goal on the ensuing drive. San Francisco would get those points back early in the second, but the Steelers mounted a comeback with a Troy Polamalu interception setting up a Zach Miller touchdown from Ben Roethlisberger to tie the game. The Steelers took their first lead of the game early in the second half on a Reed 42 yard field goal after an outstanding kickoff return, though it was short lived as the Niners marched 52 yards in 11 plays and Mike Cofer nailed a 35 yarder to tie the game. After forcing a punt, the Niners took nine minutes off the clock on a 15 play touchdown drive with Roger Craig punching it in from two yards out. With time running out the Steelers picked up 89 yards in just over four minutes, capped by a Duce Staley two yard touchdown run to tie the game. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, they left just under 90 seconds for Joe Montana, who marched the Niners 53 yards, and Cofer buried a 36 yarder as time expired to give the Niners the win.

'68 NYJ 19, @ '01 NE 7
Neither offense could get anything going early until the Jets finally got some traction midway through the second, marching 57 yards in 12 plays to set up a 32 yard Jim Turner field goal. New England's drive stalled, and the Jets took advantage with a perfectly executed two minute drive that culminated with an 11 yard strike from Joe Namath to George Sauer to make it 10-0 at the break. The third quarter was mostly uneventful, other than a late Jet fumble that they recovered and turned into a field goal to make it 13-0. The Patriots would get their lone score with just over five minutes to go on an Antowain Smith 15 yard run, but on their next drive Marc Edwards fumbled deep in Patriot territory, and the Jets added a field goal, plus a completely unnecessary one at the end of the game after a turnover on downs in the red zone.

'94 SF 19, @ '67 GB 7
Bart Starr threw a pick on the first play of the game, and the 49ers were set up on the doorstep, though they only managed a field goal for the trouble. The teams traded punts until late in the first when the Packers finally got some momentum, but Don Chandler missed from 33 yards out wide right to keep the score at 3-0. Ben Wilson would fumble to open Green Bay's next drive, and nine plays later Doug Brien hit from 25 yards out to make it 6-0. Brien would miss to end the half while Green Bay's struggles continued. The Niners took their second drive of the half down to the goal line before Ricky Watters fumbled and the Packers recovered, though they had to punt, and two drives later Watters redeemed himself with a 41 yard touchdown run, with a failed two point conversion. Bart Starr was lifted for Zeke Bratkowski, who found Boyd Dowler for a screen that he took 71 yards to the house with three minutes to go. Marc Logan picked up 38 yards the first play after the two minute warning to set up a Steve Young to Jerry Rice connection with a minute and a half to go to end the game.

'73 MIA 17, @ '83 LAR 12
A Bob Griese interception early in this one didn't lead directly to a score, but two drives later it set up a 35 yard Chris Bahr field goal to give the Raiders the early 3-0 lead. A hold on the ensuing kickoff pinned the Dolphins deep, but they marched 96 yards in 12 plays as Larry Csonka punched one in from four yards out to make it 7-3. Miami would later execute a perfect two minute drive with Mercury Morris scoring from 16 yards out to make it 14-3 at the break. They'd add a field goal with about five minutes to go in the third, and the Raiders finally made a run. A drive bridging the final two quarters ended in a 37 yard field goal, then after trading punts, the Raiders went 85 yards in just over two minutes, surviving a fumble, to see Kenny King score from two yards out, though Marcus Allen would fail the two point conversion. Los Angeles managed to force a stop, but turned the ball over on downs deep in their own territory and the Dolphins escaped with the win.

@ '78 PIT 20, '98 DEN 17 (OT)
We started the day with an overtime game; it's only fitting it ended with one too. Denver forced a punt on the opening possession, then got three straight big plays to go a total of 70 yards, with Rod Smith taking a John Elway pass 29 yards for a score. The Steelers had a quick answer as Terry Bradshaw found Randy Grossman for a 48 yard touchdown to tie the game four plays later. The teams traded punts until an Elway pick with about nine minutes to go in the second quarter, and Roy Gerala hit a 22 yard field goal eight plays later to give the Steelers the lead. After inexplicably punting on fourth and three from the Pittsburgh 36, the Broncos promptly surrendered a 95 yard touchdown drive capped by a 10 yard plunge from Franco Harris to make it 17-7 at the break. The Broncos would get those points back in the third after Tyrone Braxton picked off Bradshaw, and five plays later Elway found Smith again, this time from 15 yards out to make it a three point game. The Broncos would tie the game with eight minutes to go in regulation, and Gerala missed a go-ahead field goal with 1:20 to go. He would not miss on his next try in overtime after the Steelers forced a three and out to start the extra session. A 32 yard pass from Bradshaw to Jim Smith, Jr. set up the winner.

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