Monday, April 30, 2018

2018 NFL Tournament of Champions Preview

I wasn't sure I'd be able to get anything like this running ever again. Fortunately, WhatIfSports is starting to get itself put together again. And with that in mind... it's time to start another major project.

In 2014, I ran my first NFL Tournament of Champions, but kept it down to a simple single-elimination tournament that ended up getting won by the 1999 St. Louis Rams. Now, they have an opportunity to defend their crown, and I'm making this system a little more complicated this time around.

With four new teams entered into the fray, this leaves us with 52 Super Bowl Champions, and while I could go back into the pre-Super Bowl era, I feel like given the results of most other Tournaments of Champions, more recent teams tend to end up winning things, 2017 NBA/ABA Tournament of Champions shenanigans notwithstanding. Sorry, Detroit Lions, Cleveland Browns, and all other teams with a Legacy of Failure upon your franchises, you are unfortunately not invited to this dance.

Photo by David Welker (Getty Images)
But with 52 teams, I need a way to narrow this down while ensuring a large enough sample size. So I went through the results from 2014 Tournament of Champions, and tried to create four balanced groups for round robin play. Each contains a team that made it to at least the semifinals, a team that made the quarterfinals, two that made the round of 16, four that at least made the round of 32 (seven of whom were one-and-done based on first round byes, with all but one group having two of these teams), four teams that lost in that round of 48, and one of our four most recent Super Bowl champions. The groups are as follows:

Group A Group B Group C Group D
1999 St. Louis Rams 1997 Denver Broncos 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 1991 Washington Redskins
2013 Seattle Seahawks 1996 Green Bay Packers 1975 Pittsburgh Steelers 2004 New England Patriots
1969 Kansas City Chiefs 1971 Dallas Cowboys 1988 San Francisco 49ers 1989 San Francisco 49ers
2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1992 Dallas Cowboys 1966 Green Bay Packers 1968 New York Jets
1984 San Francisco 49ers 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers 1985 Chicago Bears 1994 San Francisco 49ers
1972 Miami Dolphins 2009 New Orleans Saints 2010 Green Bay Packers 1973 Miami Dolphins
1995 Dallas Cowboys 1986 New York Giants 1976 Oakland Raiders 1998 Denver Broncos
1977 Dallas Cowboys 1993 Dallas Cowboys 2000 Baltimore Ravens 1978 Pittsburgh Steelers
1980 Oakland Raiders 2011 New York Giants 1982 Washington Redskins 1983 Los Angeles Raiders
2003 New England Patriots 2006 Indianapolis Colts 2012 Baltimore Ravens 1967 Green Bay Packers
1981 San Francisco 49ers 1970 Baltimore Colts 2007 New York Giants 2001 New England Patriots
1987 Washington Redskins 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers 1990 New York Giants 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers
2016 New England Patriots 2017 Philadelphia Eagles 2014 New England Patriots 2015 Denver Broncos

Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea (USA TODAY Sports)
So over the span of the next 13 weeks, these groups will play a single round robin. All teams will play a balanced six home games and six road games as randomly generated. The top six teams from each group will advance, with the top two from each group getting a first round bye. This will take us to a Labor Day title game just in time for the start of the 2018 NFL season.

You can view full standings, plus a schedule, here. I'm opting for a different site because the single round robin schedule got weird with my old website, and this one happened to include a second stage option in it, so I'm skipping out on my usual bracket site unless it does something screwy with the postseason portion. We'll see.

Will the 1999 Rams repeat as Champion of Champions? Or will one of our newcomers usurp the throne? Follow along this summer to find out!

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