On Day 4, we're swapping leagues again while staying on the coast. as we move to the National League West.
Last year: 91-71 (1st in NL West), 2 wins above COAS Prediction; lost in NLCS
There are some early injury issues here, but the Dodgers return pretty much everyone from last year's team. Corey Seager has a full offseason under his belt, though he's one of the injured, Joc Pederson had another offseason to work on his game, and I'll be interested to see what happens with Yasiel Puig this season, considering he's been demoted before. The bullpen is good, with Kenley Jansen reupping with Los Angeles. That rotation is still the strength of this team though, with several good complementary pieces like Kenta Maeda and Rich Hill to fill in the rest days of one Clayton Kershaw. If he stays healthy all year, the Dodgers will challenge for the best record in the majors.
2017 Prediction: 97-65
Last year: 87-75 (2nd in NL West), 8 wins below COAS Prediction; lost in NLDS
It's not an even year, but Even Year Magic was slain back in October. The Giants shored up their dumpster fire bullpen by picking up Mark Melancon to be their closer. Otherwise this team is still very good; Madison Bumgarner is Madison Bumgarner, and there are great pieces behind him in Johnny Cueto, Matt Moore, and Jeff Samardzija. The lineup is still potent with Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, and Brandon Belt anchoring its heart. I'll be interested to see how Eduardo Nunez does in his first full season in San Francisco, and the same with Jarrett Parker. That's really the only concern I have with an otherwise excellent team.
2017 Prediction: 91-71, Wild Card
Last year: 75-87 (3rd in NL West), 10 wins above COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
Originally I had the Rockies fourth before forgetting how good they were last year. Having a (hopefully) full year out of shortstop Trevor Story will help support Nolan Arenado, along with the supporting cast of Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMaiheu, and Mark Reynolds. I'm just not sold on the pitching. Tyler Chatwood is a solid pitcher, but not an ace. The rest of the rotation falls from there, and while this team should be decent, they won't threaten for a playoff spot.
2017 Prediction: 80-82
Last year: 69-93 (4th in NL West), 16 wins below COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
I whiffed on the Diamondbacks last year, after figuring Zach Grienke would be the missing piece. He hasn't been, after having a down 2016. I have to think he'll round into form this season. Problem is, I don't care much for the rest of this roster. Shelby Miller disappointed, and they'll need continued development from Yasmany Tomas if they want to be better. Paul Goldschmidt will continue to do Paul Goldschmidt things, but that's about it for this team.
2017 Prediction: 74-88
Last year: 68-94 (5th in NL West), 7 wins below COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
Ginny Baker is not walking through that door. The Padres are relying on Clayton Richard and Jered Weaver to be their 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, and if this were maybe 2012, the latter would be a threat, but Weaver isn't as good as he once was. In the lineup, other than Wil Myers, there's not much here I care for. It's a lot of youth that will need some time to develop as the team continues its rebuild.
2017 Prediction: 63-99
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