Speaking of our defending champion, they are taking part in my newest project, the MLB Tournament of Champions. You can check out information on that tournament here, and check out the action starting this coming week.
Without further ado, let's get to the NL Central. Let's note once again that both wild cards are taken.
Last year: 103-58 (1st in NL Central), 9 wins above COAS Prediction; Won World Series
I've been waiting a long time to type that final phrase. But now that the dream has been realized, the work of title defense begins. The Cubs' top four pitchers from their rotation return, with Mike Montgomery, who got the fateful final out, likely taking the fifth spot. Wade Davis takes over the closer role from the departed Aroldis Chapman, which is fine, but I worry about bullpen depth a little bit. The lineup is deadly, with MVP Kris Bryant, who just keeps getting better, Anthony Rizzo, who is an MVP contender, but I worry about how stacked this team is and making sure everyone gets at bats. Albert Almora and Jon Jay will platoon in center field with Dexter Fowler's departure, and Ben Zobrist will end up moving around some to make room for Javier Baez, while Kyle Schwarber makes his full return from his ACL tear last April. Really though, this is a good problem to have, and the Cubs are far and away the best team in the division.
2017 Prediction: 100-62
Last year: 86-76 (2nd in NL Central), 6 wins below COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
The Cards made the big move of the offseason to pluck "You go, we go" from the defending champs. Fowler will be a fixture in center for St. Louis for a while, which is important given the amount of youth in the rest of the lineup. The Cards need to find a successor to Yadier Molina though, who was awful behind the plate last season, and doesn't have Javier Baez to make ridiculous tags on would-be base stealers. Yadi will still be decent though, and Jhonny Peralta is another good veteran presence to help guys like Randall Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty, Aledmys Diaz, and Kolten Wong. The Cards' rotation took a major blow a month ago when Alex Reyes went down for Tommy John surgery. This just puts more pressure on Adam Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, and Michael Wacha. Given their propensity for devil magic, the Cardinals will still find a way to be competitive, but it won't be enough as the team misses the playoffs for the second straight season. That's what you get for cheating.
2017 Prediction: 84-78
Last year: 78-83 (3rd in NL Central), 10 wins below COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
I expected Pittsburgh to compete last year, and instead they fell off the table. Andrew McCutchen has fallen off a cliff, and after putting him on the trade block, the Bucs moved him to right field, where he's still a negative defender. Moving Marte to center might help a little bit, but Cutch needs to get his bat back. There's some good young pitching in Pittsburgh's pipeline, but even if it comes this year, I don't know that it will be enough for the Pirates to really threaten again.
2017 Prediction: 77-85
Last year: 73-89 (4th in NL Central), 2 wins above COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
The rebuild is on in force. Neftali Feliz is closing games now for a rotation that isn't all that good other than maybe Matt Garza, though he's not what he used to be. There's a lot of youth on this team that is going to take time to develop, and I'm interested to see what will happen to Ryan Braun and how long he will remain in Milwaukee. At the end of the day though, this is clearly a rebuilding team, though it sounds like there's some optimism in the pipeline.
2017 Prediction: 69-93
Last year: 68-94 (5th in NL Central), 3 wins above COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
This is another rebuilding project. Joey Votto is really the only major holdover from the Reds' brief window atop the Central, and who knows how long he'll remain with the club. Billy Hamilton continues to develop, and he'll steal a ton of bases again. There are some decent young pieces like Tucker Barnhart and Zach Cozart, but that's about it. The pitching will be a problem without any outstanding pieces, including Anthony DeScalfini, who will be out to start the year. Expect the Reds to sell in July.
2017 Prediction: 65-97
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