As we make our final geographic move, let's swap leagues again and take a look at the AL Central. Let's note though, that both wild cards are taken.
Last year: 94-67 (1st in AL Central), 10 wins above COAS Prediction; Lost World Series
Well, I was right about Cleveland falling just short, though they made it farther than I anticipated. The Indians blew a 3-1 World Series lead, but there's no reason they can't make it back again this year. They lost Mike Napoli, but added Edwin Encarnacion to DH for this team, and also lost Rajai Davis, though Tyler Naquin was decent last year. The infield is really good as well with Francisco Lindor serving as the linchpin at short. The starting rotation remains excellent with Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer, and Josh Tomlin. The bullpen remains a weapon as well, with Cody Allen and superweapon Andrew Miller (assuming David Ross didn't break him). These guys will be the team to beat.
2017 Prediction: 100-62
Last year: 81-81 (3rd in AL Central), 7 wins below COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
A good chunk of the core from the 2015 title team remains, and they added Jorge Soler to play right field and bring a solid bat to the lineup. Salvador Perez is one of the best catchers in the game, and the infield is solid. The bullpen take a little hit with Wade Davis' departure in the Soler trade, but they remain stacked. The biggest question mark is the rotation, just like last year. If they can get excellent pitching out of guys like Jason Hammel, they'll be in the mix for a playoff spot.
2017 Prediction: 83-79
Last year: 86-75 (2nd in AL Central), 7 wins above COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
Detroit was about where I penciled them last year, though they were a tad better than I thought. The lineup remains potent, anchored by Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez, and Ian Kinsler is still a good piece. The rotation poses an interesting question, as Justin Verlander had a renaissance last year. If he can keep it up this season, the Tigers should contend. If he regresses a little bit, this prediction will look way too optimistic.
2017 Prediction: 83-79
Last year: 78-84 (4th in AL Central), 1 win above COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
The South Siders' record is a little inflated after the team started April incredibly hot last season before falling off. The team then went full rebuild, dealing Adam Eaton and Chris Sale in the offseason. Jose Quintana becomes the ace, and he's certainly pitched like one even though his record doesn't show it. James Shields is also still here, and he'll likely end up taking the ace role over once Quintana gets dealt at the deadline. The lineup is interesting, as Jose Abreu should be a piece to continue to build around, though I expect Todd Frazier may get dealt at the deadline too. Given the state of the Sox, they may tread water for a couple months, but they're going to make some trades, and that will impact the final record. But there are already some good pieces in the pipeline now, so keep an eye on the White Sox going forward.
2017 Prediction: 69-93
Last year: 59-103 (5th in AL Central), 20 wins below COAS Prediction; Missed playoffs
Whoops. I got fooled by the mirage of 2015, pretty badly (though a friend of mine from my WONC days had them as a 90 win team...). When Ervin Santana is your best pitcher, it's not a good omen. The team this year will rely on some growth from Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton as the team will presumably be listening to offers on second baseman Brian Dozier. This is another rebuilding team that has some pieces potentially in place, but the trades they will likely make are going to drop the record as well.
2017 Prediction: 64-98
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