Wednesday, September 9, 2015

2015 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 2

Everything got pushed back a day following the Ohio State-Virginia Tech game on Monday night, so today I'm looking at the Week 2 schedule for college football.

Week 1 was, unless you're a Mountain West school, a pretty good week for scheduling. A grand total of 46 schools got their one allotted cupcake out of the way, and many more schools who played tough Week 1 games will eat theirs this week in an effort to "prepare" their team for the upcoming gauntlets.

I also want to note before we dive into the Week 2 schedule that there were a couple game cancellations this week that impact the Non Conference Schedule Strength. LSU's game against McNeese State got cancelled due to a lightning storm, so they got back their one point they lost. Toledo's game started, but had to be delayed for a long stretch due to severe weather, and ultimately saw the game get cancelled and ruled a "no contest", so Toledo also got their point back. I've already made the changes on my Google Sheet and made notes about the zeroes on there.

So without further ado, let's see how those, plus this week's games, affect NCSS. For this week and every week hereafter, I will post two numbers after each conference: their weekly score and their cumulative score for the season. The rankings will be by cumulative score, but in the event of a tie (and I mean a true tie without the rounding), the higher score for the week will be the tiebreaker. I will also note for future reference: all blue zeroes on the sheet will indicate conference games.



  1. Conference USA: 1.50; 2.83 (LW: 2). Conference play opens on Thursday with Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky, but the non-conference slate is strong. UTEP, Middle Tennessee, Florida International and Rice all hit the road for major conference games, UTSA hosts Kansas State for a couple points, and this is nullified by Charlotte, Southern Mississippi and Old Dominion playing FCS opponents.
  2. Sun Belt: 0.73; 2.64 (LW: 1). Louisiana's Lafayette and Monroe as well as Texas State and Troy try to pick up their first wins of the year against lower level competition, but there's enough tough scheduling to more than make up for it. Appalachian State, Idaho and South Alabama all have road trips to Power 5 opponents, while Arkansas State hosts Missouri.
  3. MAC: 1.62; 2.62 (LW: 5). This was one conference that had a Week 1 adjustment due to a cancellation, and their score gets further boosted by a road trip-heavy week. Only a handful of MAC teams are home this week, with Central Michigan, Northern Illinois and Kent State playing their DI-AA opponents on Saturday.
  4. Pac-12: 1.33; 2.25 (LW: 6). Washington and Arizona State have FCS teams on their plates this week, but this is more than offset by some road tripping. Oregon and Oregon State head out to Michigan this Saturday, while UCLA and Arizona have Mountain West foes in Nevada on their schedules.
  5. Big Ten: 1.00; 2.07 (LW: 3). It's a strong overall showing for the B1G again, other than Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern playing their DI-AA teams. The score is bolstered by Iowa playing at Iowa State, though Rutgers, Michigan and Michigan State host Power 5 teams and Minnesota plays at Colorado State for a couple extra points. 
  6. American Athletic: 1.83; 1.92 (LW: 9). AAC play kicks off with Temple at Cincinnati, but the conference benefits from almost everyone going on the road, several of which are trips to Power Conference opponents. Yes, even Memphis, who is going to play a Kansas team that just lost to South Dakota State.
  7. Mountain West: 1.83; 1.58 (LW: 10). The Mountain West rebounds from the worst-scheduled opening week in Death to the BCS Playoff-era history with a bevy of strong games and no FCS foes to speak of. Utah State, Hawaii, Fresno State and San Diego State all get maximum points for the week while San Jose State and Air Force open conference play.
  8. SEC: 0.57; 1.57 (LW: 4). This conference saw an adjustment with LSU, but don't let the low score for the week fool you; only Auburn is getting penalized for scheduling this week. Most of this can be attributed to three in-conference games. The biggest points for the week come from Tennessee hosting Oklahoma and Missouri heading to Arkansas State.
  9. Big XII: 0.60; 1.30 (LW: 7). West Virginia, TCU, Oklahoma State and Baylor all get their cupcakes this week in a slightly down week from the opener. Oklahoma goes to Knoxville to face Tennessee for major points, while Kansas State visits UTSA for a couple points to rebound from its Week 1 dessert.
  10. ACC: 0.29; 0.71 (LW: 8). I made a mistake last week: I accidentally gave Virginia Tech a zero for its game with Ohio State instead of the two they deserved. This has been corrected. For this week, Miami and Pittsburgh are on the road to face FBS teams, while Virginia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, and NC State all get their FCS game in. Boston College also faces an FCS foe, its second straight, and is thus ineligible for the Death to the BCS Playoffs. 
For full disclosure, the three independent schools have an average score of 3.33, which would be tops in the nation if they were their own conference, but because they're independent, I don't rank them with the conferences for NCSS purposes (this is one flaw of this metric). If you want to see the updated rankings, you can view them here.

Good luck to your teams this upcoming week! I'll be back on Monday with a look at results from the weekend. Also, come back tomorrow for this season's inaugural Pigskin Pick 'Em post!

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