Today we're back in the American League looking at the Central division. If you want to refer back to last year's predictions, which, overall, weren't too shabby for the division, you can find them here.
Let's take a look.
Last year: 90-72 (1st in AL Central), Lost in ALDS; 2 wins below COAS Prediction
I know a lot of people aren't as high on the Tigers as they have been in recent years, but I think they still take the division. It's clear the days of Justin Verlander being in the elite of the elite are over, but he's got pressure off of him with David Price back in the fold. Meanwhile, the offense should be fine once again. I doubt Victor Martinez has the kind of year he had last year, but he'll still be good, especially with Miguel Cabrera still there, and Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup to help out.
2015 Prediction: 93-69
Last year: 85-77 (3rd in AL Central), Missed playoffs; 1 win above COAS Prediction
Cleveland looks poised for a breakout this year, especially with Cy Young winner Corey Kluber leading a pretty good rotation. My concerns lay with their offense, however. Michael Bourn has been so-so, though he's a good leadoff man, but I'm not entirely sold on the heart of their order. Michael Brantley isn't bad, but I'm not sure what all he will bring to the table. Even so, it will be enough for Cleveland to be in the race all year, and get rewarded with some extra October baseball.
2015 Prediction: 92-70, Wild Card
Last year: 73-89 (4th in AL Central), Missed playoffs; 3 wins above COAS Prediction
I was a little harsh on the Sox last year (partially because I overrated the Twins), but I do think they surpassed expectations. They had a fantastic offseason that saw the rotation bolstered by the Jeff Samardzija trade, which is big with Chris Sale nursing a foot injury. The offense will be fine too; Jose Abreu is the real deal. The addition of some other bats like Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche will help too. The Sox won't really contend for a playoff spot this year, but they're heading in the right direction.
2015 Prediction: 83-79
Last year: 89-73 (2nd in AL Central), Lost World Series; 7 wins above COAS Prediction
KC was a nice story to root for last fall, but I really don't expect them to be anywhere near the level they were last season. Losing James Shields hurts, and while their rotation is still decent, it doesn't quite pack the same top level punch. If they get late leads though, they'll win most of those games with a fantastic bullpen. Meanwhile, their offense is intriguing enough to score a fair number of runs, even without an elite slugger. With all the losses from last year's pennant winners, they fall off a little bit.
2015 Prediction: 77-85
Last year: 70-92 (5th in AL Central), Missed playoffs; 4 wins below COAS Prediction
The Twins made some decent additions during the offseason, most notably picking up Ervin Santana in free agency to help out the rotation, but there are still holes. There are a few good position players in guys like Mauer (who can still hit for average, but not power), and extending Brian Dozier was a great move. For the most part though, this team is a little ways away from contention, as they wait on guys like Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton to make their big league debuts and try to turn the franchise back around.
2015 Prediction: 67-95
Tomorrow I get to the fun one as we look at the NL Central.
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