So, as is my custom, I'm going to go division by division and take a look at all 30 clubs, complete with predictions. I look forward to totally overrating a couple clubs while some surprises sneak in and throw everything off, as happens every year.
Since last year's World Series champion came out of the National League West, I'm starting in the opposite league on the opposite coast. You can view last year's AL East predictions here.
1. Toronto Blue JaysLast year: 83-79 (3rd in AL East), Missed playoffs; 1 win above COAS Prediction
The Jays added some quality bats and gloves during the offseason, including the early snagging of one of the big prizes in catcher Russell Martin. They also made the trade for star third baseman Josh Donaldson. He'll help provide some decent protection for guys like Jose Bautista. The pitching is a little bit of a concern for me, as I'm not entirely sure what to expect from R.A. Dickey or Mark Buehrle, who is somehow still going. They've been an iffy pick in recent years, but I'll go out on a limb this season and say they have enough to overtake the Boston's and Baltimore's of the world to make the playoffs.
Prediction: 93-69
Last year: 71-91 (5th in AL East), Missed playoffs; 25 wins below COAS Prediction
I can never get the Red Sox successfully pegged. They lost some of their pitching depth, but still have a solid rotation thanks to some trades with the Cardinals. They got some good defections in the field as well, with Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval leaving the NL West to come play in Fenway. I'm not entirely sure what to expect from Panda, as he came into spring training overweight. He still has a good bat, but it's just a question of how much. Ultimately, I think they fall just short of the division, as well as the wild card.
Prediction: 91-71
Last year: 96-66 (1st in AL East), Lost in ALCS; 25 wins above COAS Prediction
Well, that helped even things out. Chris Davis had an awful 2014 (I'd know; he was my first round pick for my fantasy team), but guys like Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz made up for the average and power drop, and they overcame some serious injury issues to surprise people and make the postseason. I think they lost too much during the offseason to threaten for the division crown, however. Their starting rotation is decent, and I'm sure Davis won't hit below the Mendoza line again, but I don't think they have the firepower to keep up in 2015.
Prediction: 83-79
Last year: 77-85 (4th in AL East), Missed playoffs; 12 wins below COAS Prediction
I had the Rays as a wild card last year, so another misfire. They lost a lot during the offseason, most notably manager Joe Maddon, which is a hard seat to fill. They've also traded away the top of their rotation, yet I can never really count out their farm system and coaching staff from replacing the lost pieces with strong talent. Problem is, I don't have much confidence in their bats. Evan Longoria is still a very good player, but there's a lot of young talent I'm not sure on. They might be in the mix early, but I don't think they're going to be in play for the playoffs.
Prediction: 74-88
Last year: 84-78 (2nd in AL East), Missed playoffs; 14 wins above COAS Prediction
The Yankees surprised last year; I think partially because of the lack of A-Rod to be a distraction. He's back this season, but he's clearly on his way down and out. Much of the rest of the lineup is full of overpaid guys who aren't what they used to be (Carlos Beltran, Mark Teixeira, to name a couple). Their rotation is also a question mark. Masahiro Tanaka was in the running for Rookie of the Year before being lost for the year to injury. Around him, there really aren't any sure things. CC Sabathia is clearly not what he used to be, and when he's your ace... you're in trouble. I was wrong about this team's downfall last year, but I don't think I will be this year. Too many holes.
Prediction: 71-91
I'll be back tomorrow morning with a look at the National League East.
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