Thursday, September 19, 2013

NBA Tournament of Champions: Championship of Champions

ESPN analyst and Grantland columnist Bill Simmons has a theory about NBA title teams that's backed up by almost 70 years of history.
"You build potential champions around one player. He doesn't have to be a super-duper star or someone who can score at will, just someone who leads by example, kills himself on a daily basis, raises the competitive nature of his teammates, and lifts them to a better place... You surround that superstar with one or two elite sidekicks who understand their place in the team's hierarchy, don't obsess over stats, and fill in every blank they can... From that framework, you complete your nucleus with top-notch role players and/or character guys... who know their place, don't make mistakes, and won't threaten that unselfish culture, as well as a coaching staff dedicated to keeping those team-ahead-of-individual values in place." (The Book of Basketball, pp. 47-48)
So when we look at how the NBA Tournament of Champions has unfolded over the past few months, it's no surprise that teams built around this principle are the ones to have made it to this point. Each titan left standing here today got here primarily behind the efforts of one superstar who is the unquestioned leader of his team, aided by a pair of excellent sidekicks, followed up by a capable group of role players that know their roles and execute them. And these teams might not have been as successful were it not for the men patrolling the sidelines, two of the best ever at their craft. I've simulated 348 games since July 1 to get us to this point, and you learn a lot over that span.

  • My dad noted that after Round 1, 75% of the time (24 of the 32 series), the more recent team advanced. Running the numbers for the rest of the tournament, 11 of the 16 second round series had the more recent team advance, 6 of 8 in the third round, and all 4 teams that made the semis were more recent than their opponents. Last round bucked the trend, as the older teams made the Finals, but overall that's 45 of the 62 series, or about 73 percent of the time. Obviously the recency bias is correlational, not causal, but it definitely backs up my dad's theory (and possibly the algorithms WhatIfSports uses) that today's teams are generally bigger, faster, stronger and better than yesteryear's.
  • WhatIfSports seemed to treat a lot of these games like exhibition games. Many rosters had more than 15 guys and we saw a lot of teams play no-name guys in garbage time. It also allowed for a funky fluke in having Elgin Baylor play for the 1972 Lakers despite his retiring a few games into the season (so to compensate, I didn't put him on the depth chart and he only appeared in games that had gotten out of hand and only for a couple minutes). For a (fictional) tournament to determine the best team ever in the NBA, this is curious.
  • Looking through 358 box scores to compile stats to create All Bracket and eventually the All Tournament Teams is really, really time consuming. And we still have another 4-7 games left!
  • Having an elite post presence is all but essential to being one of the best teams of all time. Looking at the teams that made the third round, you had teams who had a major contributor at either the center or power forward position. Notable examples were Kareem (twice), Shaq, Wilt, Tim Duncan, and Moses Malone. Needless to say, these guys were key factor in advancing their teams. The only possible Achilles heel to this is...
  • If your team has a transcendent talent on the perimeter as its best player, you can largely get by without an elite center. Hence why Both of LeBron's title teams made the semis, and Michael's best team is in the Finals with only 3 losses to their name all tournament long.
I think most of that a lot of people either knew or could have guessed all of these things, but it's nice to have data to back up those theories. I've rambled on enough. You probably know the drill at this point: this Finals series is a best of seven (2-2-1-1-1 format) with home court going to the team with the better overall record (regular season plus playoffs). All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. In the words of Christopher Lambert, "There can be only one!"


 1996 Chicago Bulls (87-13) vs 2005 San Antonio Spurs (75-30)
Game 1: @ '96 Bulls 95, '05 Spurs 88 (CHI leads 1-0)
Game 2: @ '96 Bulls 86, '05 Spurs 79 (CHI leads 2-0)
Game 3: @ '05 Spurs 111, '96 Bulls 108 (OT) (CHI leads 2-1)
Game 4: '96 Bulls 105, @ '05 Spurs 95 (CHI leads 3-1)
Game 5: @ '96 Bulls 92, '05 Spurs 86 (CHI wins 4-1)
The outcomes of the first couple games were never really in doubt, as MJ imposed his will on the Spurs. Tim Duncan was effective, but especially in Game 3 as his 35 points kept the Bulls without much of an answer. In Game 4 the Bulls led a more balanced attack, as Luc Longley had a good game to help the Bulls take a commanding lead back to Chicago. From there, Jordan, Pippen, Kukoc and Company did what they needed to to hold on and claim the throne of the Greatest Team of All Time.

To see the final bracket, click here.

And lo, there was much rejoicing. Really, the Bulls didn't face much stiff opposition until maybe the third round, but none of their final three opponents were slouches in any regard. Yet led by MJ's indomitable will, Scottie's willingness to do anything asked of him, solid team defense, and Phil Jackson's leadership along with key contributions in big moments, the 1996 Chicago Bulls recemented their place as the Greatest of All Time. The Bulls went 24-4 over the course of the tournament, losing those 4 games by an average of 4.5 points, once in overtime. In their 24 wins, the average margin of victory was more than 14 points, with only 7 of their wins coming by single digits (granted, 3 came in this round).

Of course, now that we've played through all the games, it's time to name the All Tournament Team. The only stipulation was that players on this team had to make the Quarterfinals. It's a distinction different from the All Bracket Teams, and basically holds up the general perception in basketball that playoff success is what ultimately matters (even though it's, to an extent, an unfair perception sometimes). But these guys were all excellent over the span of 4-6 rounds and deserve their places of honor. A lot of the guys on the All Tournament Team were no brainers, but there was one position I had to really think about, some finagling with positions was done again to create what could be argued as a smallball lineup, plus there's some other honorable mentions who I'll throw in below. Considering most NBA champions have a primary rotation once you reach the Finals of about 8 or 9 guys, I figure the 8 below provide a good enough team to build around. By the way, the numbers below are each player's per-game averages, plus his shooting splits (field goals/threes/free throws).

NBA Tournament of Champions All Tournament Honorable Mentions
  • Tony Parker ('05 SA, 38 G). 15.4 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 7.3 APG, 0.0 BPG, 1.5 SPG; 49/34/72
  • Jerry West ('72 LAL, 21 G). 22.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 8.5 APG, 0.3 BPG, 2.0 SPG; 47/39/76
  • Chris Bosh ('13 MIA, 31 G). 17.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.5 BPG, 1.0 SPG; 44/31/80
NBA Tournament of Champions All Tournament Team
  • PG: Magic Johnson ('88 LAL, 25 G). 17.9 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 11.4 APG, 0.1 BPG, 2.2 SPG; 47/26/91
  • SG: Michael Jordan ('96 CHI, 28 G). 29.9 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 4.5 APG, 04. BPG, 1.6 SPG; 47/42/84
  • SF: Scottie Pippen ('96 CHI, 28 G). 18.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 5.6 APG, 0.9 BPG, 1.8 SPG; 46/37/61
  • PF: LeBron James ('13 MIA, 31 G). 26.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 6.3 APG, 1.2 BPG, 1.6 SPG; 54/42/75
  • C: Tim Duncan ('05 SA, 38 G). 21.6 PPG, 12.8 RPG, 2.9 APG, 3.1 BPG, 0.7 SPG; 53/20/68
NBA Tournament of Champions MVP: Michael Jordan ('96 CHI). Come on, who else? They lost four games total over the span of the tournament. In those 28 games he failed to score 20 points just twice. There's obviously no question that this Bulls team wouldn't have won the tournament without Scottie Pippen either, but MJ was the heart and soul of the team. Whenever his team needed him to step up, especially after those rare losses, he did (45 points in Game 3 of the Quarterfinals, that 7 steal effort in Game 5 of the Semifinals to help push the Bulls onward, and a great all-around game in Game 4 to retake command of the series going back to Chicago here in the final round.

I think of all the big projects I've done, this one has to have been my favorite. I enjoyed the process of dreaming this up and was excited to actually execute it. I think I can safely say I've never been more nervous about something being simulated on a computer before. Running all the simulations was a fun experience to document, and I learned a fair amount about NBA history by undertaking this. I hope you enjoyed this as much as I did!

One final note: If you want more of a visual reminder of what this team was all about, Game 6 of the '96 Finals is available in (almost) full on YouTube. I may or may not have been watching it the past few days.

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