For the third year in a row, Confessions of a Sportscaster will be picking games against the spread as determined by ESPN.com's Pigskin Pick 'Em game. You can join probably up until kickoff tonight.
In addition to actually making those picks though, I like to rationalize them. It was done in partnership with another NFL blog last year, but this year it will be done entirely on COAS. I also have a new partner whose picks will be appearing alongside my own. Adam Quinn, my wife's cousin's husband, was a part of the contest last season on ESPN. Some time last winter (I think after the regular season ended), I had said something to him about possibly joining me in actually picking games on here, and he was excited to join in. Likewise, I'm excited to have him aboard. And he's a Bears fan, so it tempers the bias here a little bit.
You'll see both of our picks for each game in tandem, along with a short rationale for why we picked what we did. Sometimes this has a lot of football based knowledge. Other times, not so much. For the opening week, we agreed on 10 out of the 16 of results. Good luck to you, sir! Let's reveal the Week 1 picks!
Thursday Night
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks (-5.5)
Lucas: Packers. I haven't forgotten what you did to the Packers, NFL. The Packers probably haven't forgotten what you did either. And with this wide of a line, I'm not betting against a pissed off Aaron Rodgers. Even in Seattle. Screw you, Lance Easley and Golden Tate.
Adam: Seahawks. Solid opening game for the NFL this year. Seattle’s D looks rock solid this pre-season and there is no reason to think that will change going forward. Eddie Lacy should have a breakout sophomore year, but it will not start today.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Lucas: Saints. Not a great defense against Drew Brees? Have fun, Atlanta, while you look to fleece your citizens with a new stadium.
Adam: Saints. Atlanta should be much improved this year but NO is just a little better. With this line, I have to go Saints.
Buffalo Bills @ Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Lucas: Bears. Jim Cornelison is singing the anthem before the game. Your argument is invalid.
Lucas note: *cue to Bills fans nodding sadly*
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Lucas: Bengals. I'd call this a good test of the Disease of More, but Andy Dalton just got paid too. So I'll take the points. I mean, it's not like I want to mention Ray Rice's offseason troubles...
Adam: Bengals. AJ Green is a beast and Ray Rice is a beater…need I say more.
Lucas note: ...so I'll just let Adam make that point for me. :P
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Lucas: Browns. I don't know what to make fun of with Cleveland this year now that Brandon Weeden isn't around. I'm sure I'll find something. Until then, I just have a feeling the Steelers are overrated this year.
Adam: Browns. I won’t hide it; this is a pity vote for Cleveland. The only thing Cleveland has is Cameron who will be wasted once Johnny Football gets under center in a few weeks.Bell could have a nice season for Pitt if he can stay away from the mary jane, so keep an eye on him.
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Lucas: Titans. Regression to the mean kicks in for KC a little bit. It's either that, or... on that day... humanity received a grim reminder.
Adam: Chiefs. 6.5 is the line…really. I may need to put some money on this game. Charles will tear it up.
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets (-4.5)
Lucas: Jets. I'll call jet lag (pun not intended, but realized immediately upon making it) on this one. That, and the fact that the Raiders suck.
Adam: Jets. Only because I had to make a pick.
Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams (-6.5)
Lucas: Vikings. Take into account that the lines were set ridiculously early for this week. I'm pretty sure this one was out before Bradford tore his ACL again. Take the easy points.
Adam: Vikings. With Bradford out for the season the workload will fall to Zac Stacy, a second year back. I just don’t think he will have what it takes; look for a regression off his decent first year stats. Oh and the Vikings have this guy you may have heard of…AP.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
Lucas: Patriots. We'll delay the setback from the Logan Mankins trade for now. I get why they did it, but the setback is coming.
Adam: Patriots. Wow only giving 3.5 points…Brady is a stud and besides how can I pick a team that is a dolphin…no love for flipper from me today.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. This early with a double digit line? I mean, the Eagles can put up points in bunches, but I'm going to take the points anyway. Let's say Admiral Kelly had a little trouble with the warp drive.
Washington Redskins @ Houston Texans (-2.5)
Lucas: Texans. JJ Watt gets to use Johnny Manziel's "Money" celebration now that he's getting paid 9 figures, right? WHY MUST WE WAIT UNTIL NOVEMBER FOR THIS MAGIC?
Adam: Texans. Not really sure where to go with this game. Houston’s D should be good against a scrambling RGIII. But Houston’s only offensive weapon is an aging Andre Johnson. I am going with Houston only because they have a better QB this year and should still put up solid numbers.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (+4.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. Dallas has won two straight season openers, including the opener at the Giants following their last Super Bowl. With as banged up/suspended as the Niners are coming into the season, this seems like a winnable game to give people of Dallas hope before they blow the season in spectacular fashion again. I'm onto you, Jerry...
Adam: 49ers. Someone quick – over/under on game winning drives Romo F's up this year for Dallas...
Lucas note: 3.5. I'm actually going to take the under, but I reserve the right to change that during Week 17 if he's at 3 and the Cowboys are fighting for a playoff spot in exchange for losing a majority of my bet on the under.
Adam note: I'll take the over.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5)
Lucas: Panthers. Even though I think these teams will be closer together in terms of performance compared to 2013, that's awfully generous to Tampa. Though maybe Lovie will work some of that "We like our team, Josh is our quarterback, we have a lot of football left to play," magic.
Adam: Panthers. I see some regression for the Panthers and some significant improvement for TB. I just don’t think McCown has the stuff to be an every week NFL QB. I think TB will rely on Martin too much.
Sunday Night
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Lucas: Broncos. If there's one thing I've learned over the years following picks against the spread, it's this: Don't bet against Peyton Manning at night.
Adam: Colts. There is no way Payton can have another season that he had last year. With Welker’s concussion issues and Decker going off to the Jets; it will be the Thomas show in Denver. Denver will win, but not by 6.5.
Monday Night
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions (-4.5)
Lucas: Lions. How red will Tom Coughlin's face get when his secondary gets burned for the 372nd time, he switches to a dime package, then watches as Reggie Bush tears through the thin defense?
San Diego Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. We'll give Carson Palmer the early benefit of the doubt at home. Not sure yet what to make of San Diego's secondary, even though I picked both these teams to win wild card spots.
Adam: Chargers. I don’t care what anyone says, I like Rivers. I think he is going to have a solid season. Has some decent receives to throw to and will have a 3+ headed committee behind him. Some of which will be able to catch the ball on check-downs.
Records Last Year
Lucas: 144-112
Adam: 116-140
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