Sunday, February 23, 2014

2014 NFL Tournament of Champions Second Round: John Elway Bracket

We're almost down to the Sweet 16 at this point! A lot of teams that have been really good in their respective seasons have already dropped out of contention for best ever. Four more will fall before the day is done. I'd say this is a fitting 300th post in COAS' history.

This bracket has a couple legendary teams, including both of Denver's Super Bowl champs. The 6-seed Packers from 2010 appear here, and we also have two of the best defenses to ever take an NFL field looming here as well. Does defense really win championships? We're about to find out.

I'll simulate all these games as a best-of-three, with the "clinching" game being the official result. I'll pull weather forecasts to get a roughly accurate depiction of what conditions would be if these games were to actually be played. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's go.


(XXXI) '68 New York Jets @ (II) '85 Chicago Bears
Game 1: '85 CHI 27, '68 NYJ 13
Game 2: '68 NYJ 20, '85 CHI 15
Game 3: '68 NYJ 15, '85 CHI 12
...I don't know what just happened. The Bears' Kevin Butler hit four of five field goals, with his miss coming from 54 yards out, and the Bears offense wasn't terrible, but they just couldn't find the end zone. Jim McMahon completed 16 of 22 passes for 148 yards, but Walter Payton could only pick up 48 yards on 19 carries. Matt Snell ran 15 times for 93 yards and the lone touchdown, while Joe Namath completed 18 of 25 passes for 178 yards and a pick. Namath had a pair of 20-plus yard completions on the final drive though to set up a 21 yard field goal by Jim Turner as time expired.

(XVIII) '97 Denver Broncos @ (XV) '10 Green Bay Packers
Game 1: '97 DEN 17, '10 GB 14
Game 2: '97 DEN 35, '10 GB 6
Freaking Elway. While he wasn't fantastic (he only completed 11 of 23 passes for 99 yards), he threw for two touchdowns and ran for another, while Terrell Davis ran for 141 yards on 23 carries and picked up a touchdown. The Broncos also made life miserable for Aaron Rodgers, who did complete 23 of 41 passes for 265 yards, but threw four interceptions.

(XXVI) '98 Denver Broncos @ (VII) '13 Seattle Seahawks
Game 1: '13 SEA 23, '98 DEN 17
Game 2: '98 DEN 27, '13 SEA 20
Game 3: '13 SEA 31, '98 DEN 10
The Broncos couldn't keep Seattle's offense off the field (sound familiar?), allowing 12 of 18 conversions on third down. Marshawn Lynch had a modest 80 yards on 25 carries, but found the end zone twice. Russell Wilson completed 17 of 21 passes for 213 yards and a pair of touchdowns. On defense, that familiar pair (Malcolm Smith and Richard Sherman) each picked John Elway off once, and the unit contained him to eight completions on 18 attempts for 131 yards while sacking him half a dozen times. Terrell Davis had 48 yards rushing for Denver and the lone touchdown.

(XXIII) '93 Dallas Cowboys @ (X) '69 Kansas City Chiefs
Game 1: '69 KC 30, '93 DAL 24
Game 2: '69 KC 23, '93 DAL 7
Emmitt Smith won game MVP honors with 108 yards rushing on 19 carries and Dallas' only touchdown, but he didn't get much help. Troy Aikman went 10 of 19 for 101 yards with a pair of picks, including Emmitt Thomas running one back for a touchdown for the Chiefs. Kansas City racked up 142 yards rushing on 36 attempts, and Len Dawson completed 12 of 25 passes for 170 yards.

To see the bracket so far, click here.

We're down to the Sweet Sixteen! Sadly, I was hoping to see a Bears-Packers game in this tournament (because seriously, what is the NFL without Bears-Packers?), yet both teams that had a shot at it lost. The '85 Bears were also the highest seed this round to take a tumble. I think seven of the 16 games in this round were upsets, so home field wasn't as big a factor this time. The older teams also won three out of four in this bracket, so I definitely think recency bias isn't a factor for this tournament.

Coming up on Friday, I'll narrow the gap down further to the Top Eight. There are a lot of fantastic teams left, but at the end, only one will be left standing. Who will it be? Keep checking back to find out!

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