Friday, February 21, 2014

2014 NFL Tournament of Champions Second Round: Larry Csonka Bracket

Another week gone by, and another stretch of football stuff is coming here on COAS. In my eternal quest to determine the best of the best in sports, last week I started up the NFL Tournament of Champions. After last weekend, we have eliminated 16 of the 48 Super Bowl champions, and this weekend I'm going to eliminate another 16. But with 32 teams left, all the byes are out of the picture, so we're really bringing the best of the best into play.

I wanted to try to keep the order of brackets relatively similar, but not in the exact same order, so I'm going to start with the Larry Csonka Bracket for this round. His back-to-back Dolphin teams that won Super Bowls appear in this round, but the top seed in this bracket belongs to Brett Favre and the '96 Packers. Will we continue to rock chalk?

To find out, we'll simulate these four matchups as a best-of-three, with the "clinching" game being the official result. I will try to take weather into account as best I can. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's start Round 2.

(XXX) '00 Baltimore Ravens @ (III) '96 Green Bay Packers
Game 1: '00 BAL 6, '96 GB 0
Game 2: '96 GB 41, '00 BAL 3
Game 3: '96 GB 19, '00 BAL 3
Both defenses stood tall in this game, as neither team topped 300 yards of offense. Brett Favre completed 16 of 26 passes for 188 yards to seven different receivers, and Edgar Bennett had the lone touchdown of the game, scampering in from 15 yards out. Trent Dilfer went nine of 25 for 112 yards and was picked off twice.

(XIX) '71 Dallas Cowboys @ (XIV) '72 Miami Dolphins
Game 1: '71 DAL 17, '72 MIA 12
Game 2: '71 DAL 28, '72 MIA 28
Game 3: '72 MIA 20, '71 DAL 7
Game 4: '71 DAL 17, '72 MIA 9
Excuse me while I crack open a bottle of champagne. To be fair, both teams were absolutely awful through the air. Roger Staubach nine of 24 passes for 98 yards, a touchdown to Lance Alworth, and two picks. Earl Morrall and Bob Griese combined to complete 10 of 26 for 109 yards and a pick. Garo Yepremian hit three of four field goals, all from at least 44 yards out, so Dallas' defense really stepped up when they needed to. Unrelated note: I had to include the tied simulation here, so we had an extra game to go through.

(XXVII) '02 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ (VI) '73 Miami Dolphins
Game 1: '73 MIA 16, '02 TB 3
Game 2: '02 TB 13, '73 MIA 3
Game 3: '02 TB 17, '73 MIA 3
On the second possession of the game, Brad Johnson hit Joe Jurevicius for a 71 yard catch-and-run touchdown and the Bucs never looked back. Brad later found Keyshawn Johnson for his other touchdown, and finished with 229 yards on 17 of 25 passing. Mercury Morris ran 14 times for 94 yards for Miami, but Bob Griese only completed six of his 23 pass attempts for 93 yards while being sacked by Simeon Rice three times.

(XXII) '95 Dallas Cowboys @ (XI) '79 Pittsburgh Steelers
Game 1: '79 PIT 21, '95 DAL 20
Game 2: '79 PIT 28, '95 DAL 24
Dallas was in control early, as Emmitt Smith ran for a touchdown and caught another to put the Cowboys up 14-0. A pair of Terry Bradshaw touchdown passes sandwiched an Aikman-to-Novecek connection and made it 21-14 at halftime. Pittsburgh tied it in the third, and after a Dallas field goal with eight minutes to play, Sidney Thornton ran in from 30 yards out with 24 seconds left for his second touchdown of the game. Thornton finished with 120 yards on 12 carries, while Emmitt Smith only had 47 yards on his 21 carries. Bradshaw completed 19 of 25 passes for 265 yards with his two scores and a pick. Aikman notched 235 yards on 19 of 27 attempts and two scores.

To see the bracket so far, click here.

Interesting note: in the first round, only one road team advanced. Through four games in the second round, two have advanced. Recency continues to prove to not be a factor, as all but one of the more recent teams dropped their second round games. We haven't seen dominant quarterback play at all really, but defenses have stepped up big when they've needed to all tournament long so far.

We get a lot of legendary teams in the next bracket, and a lot of powerful offenses. Will the trend of defense hold firm again later today? Or will we see these offenses light up the scoreboard? Check back closer to noon and find out!

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