Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

Every August, 32 teams convene in different places around the country with a singular goal in mind: making the postseason field of 12 and win two or three games, depending on seeding, to make it to the biggest sporting event in America that should really be a national holiday. Today, two of those teams' dreams will be realized as they take the field in East Rutherford, New Jersey. But only one can come out on top.

This year's Super Bowl itself was mired in controversy months, if not years, ago, when the NFL decided to hold it in the metro New York area. Obviously, hosting in a northern city in general carries risks (but then again Dallas had a freak snowstorm three years ago, so location isn't everything) but holding it in an open air stadium up north caused a lot of bickering. Me, I liked the thought of playing a Super Bowl in the elements. Apparently though, the elements won't be much of a factor if at all. Say what you will about The Weather Channel, but their forecast is calling for a kickoff temperature in the mid-40s, dropping a bit as the game goes on, and a slight chance for some rain. Not what we usually see on Super Sunday, but a far cry from the doomsday some predicted.

I kept waiting for ESPN to run prop bet picks for the past two weeks, but it never materialized, so I'm bypassing that this year. Let's just stick to what's important: the game. Line for picking is taken from Vegas Insiders.


Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos (-2.5)

All the talk leading up to tonight's game has been about this being the #1 offense versus the #1 defense. If we want to get into all-time proportions, Bill Barnwell wrote a great piece on Monday putting these units in historical context. I think this matchup has probably been overanalyzed by just about everyone, but I think it's pretty simple. Neither team has faced a unit like this before. Peyton isn't going to put up the gaudy numbers he has over the course of the last 18 games; the Legion of Boom won't allow it. But the Legion also hasn't had to contend with a team that has this many weapons. The ground game has done a good job for the Broncos, and that will take away some attention from Manning, who has several very good receivers to get the ball too. They can't cover everyone forever, and Manning has been kept upright basically the whole year. Seattle has to get to him.

I think the more interesting matchup is on the other side though, when Russell Wilson leads his offense on the field against Denver's defense. Let's be honest: Wilson is a very good dual threat quarterback, and turned out to be the steal of the 2012 NFL Draft. You continually have to watch out for Beast Mode, though the odds of him creating an earthquake in New York are probably incredibly slim. If Percy Harvin is a go, that adds a very deadly weapon to the Seahawk attack, and something the Broncos have to watch closely for.

Thing is, I actually like Denver's defense in this matchup. A lot of talk coming into the playoffs was about how their group wasn't that great. In the two games since, they kept Phillip Rivers and the Chargers off the scoreboard for 47 minutes before he led a late charge that fell short. The following week, this defense went up against a running back in LeGarette Blount who had run rampant over Indy's defense and held him for six yards. Overall, they kept the vaunted Patriots offense to just a field goal in the first 50 minutes before Brady got a couple touchdowns to make it interesting. Simply put, Denver's defense has stepped up this postseason to make the plays they've needed to make at the most critical times/ Not that Seattle hasn't done that, Denver has just overcome the perception of mediocrity this postseason.

Even with all this, the Legion of Boom still scares me, and that's without Brandon Browner. Richard Sherman is Richard Sherman, and I have a feeling Demariyus Thomas is not going to do a lot tonight. Fortunately for Peyton he has Julius Thomas... and Eric Decker... and Wes Welker... and a decent running game. They'll be held under their average tonight. But I think they'll do enough to put points on the board and I think Denver's defense makes enough plays. With all apologies to my supervisor from Indy, I'm predicting Peyton's second Super Bowl ring.

Lucas' Prediction: Broncos 27, Seahawks 23

Record So Far
Spread: 145-119-2 (1-1 two weeks ago, 2-6-2 playoffs)
Straight: 5-5 (1-1 last week)