Wednesday, September 11, 2013

2013 NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 3

September is now, for all intents and purposes, in full swing. We've played 2 weeks of college football (and 2 of high school here in Illinois) and one week of the NFL season. I'll have mine and Nathaniel's Week 2 picks for you tomorrow, but for now I'm back to the college ranks.

There's been some compelling games through 2 weeks, even in the midst of dozens of games against FCS competition. Yeah, I've been hard on those schools, and yes, I know the FCS schools like those games to see how they measure up against top tier competition and get a fancy paycheck for doing so, but I really don't think these games should count in the standings... especially when they get played at the end of the year. It's a scummy way to work your way up the rankings. If you're going to play these games, have them be a preseason affair a week before the regular season starts as a tuneup so they don't count in the standings, but fans can get their early fix in for football. The only issue then becomes player safety, which is another matter entirely. I stand by my criticisms.

So if you want a look at where we've been so far, you can view last week's rankings here. While I'm keeping up with the Road-Home Disparity Index, it's too early to post it, and it's also way too early for playoff points. As such, here's how the Non-Conference Schedule Strength metrics measure up by conference. In parentheses are the average scores for the week, followed by the total average score for the conference on the year. Rankings are based on total average score for the conference.

1. MAC (1.77, 4.08; LW: 3). Conference play really hasn't started here yet to knock the averages off, and other than Buffalo and Toledo ordering dessert this week, the schedules turned out pretty good overall. Akron, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Western Michigan, Kent State, and Massachusetts are all off to face BCS opponents. Say what you will about the Indianas of the world, but the scheduling here was actually the best of the week according to the NCSS metric.
2. Conference USA (1.57, 4.07; LW: 2). C-USA did a great job as well. Florida International is the only culprit here this week, and there is a bye for UAB as well as one conference game to bring the average down. Florida Atlantic, Southern Mississippi, Tulsa and UTSA are all off to face tougher opponents though, and much of the rest of the conference didn't do too bad.
T-3. Big Ten (1.33, 3.25; LW: 4). Wow. Minnesota and Michigan State were all that kept the B1G from climbing higher. Ohio State and Wisconsin head west to face Pac-12 foes, Iowa is off to face Iowa State, and even Nebraska and Illinois are hosting Pac-12 teams! It's a good showing for these guys.
T-3. Mountain West (0.58, 3.25; LW: 1). Their fall from the top isn't entirely fair; San Diego State and San Jose State have the week off, and Air Force and Boise State play each other. At the same time, trips by New Mexico, Nevada, and Fresno State were offset by Colorado State, Utah State and Wyoming getting their FCS fixes in. So to an extent they're to blame, but the byes do throw a wrench into things. Ultimately as we get closer to the end of the season though, conference scores don't matter as much; individual team scores do.
T-5. Pac-12 (1.42, 2.50; LW: 9). This was quite the jump, even more so than the Big Ten's. Washington State is getting it's DI-AA on, and there is a conference battle between Oregon State and Utah. Other than them and Arizona's hosting UTSA, everyone else is either on the road and/or facing BCS opposition. Why can't more BCS conferences do this?
T-5. Sun Belt (0.63, 2.50; LW: 5). Again, this one isn't entirely the fault of the teams in conference. There's a pair of conference games, and Texas State has a bye. Louisiana-Lafayette is having a cupcake, and the redeeming scores for this week come from Georgia State and Louisiana-Monroe hitting the road to face major FBS competition.
7. American Athletic (1.00, 2.40; LW: 6). Houston and SMU are off, while Louisville and UCF are off to face BCS foes in their houses. Cincinnati and Temple get the FCS opponents this time. (Random aside, totally didn't expect Cincy to get killed by Illinois. Huh.)
8. SEC (0.71, 2.07; LW: 7). This is another one that isn't entirely fair. Having 3 conference games puts a damper on the week's average (though part of me does want to see that Bama/A&M game if for no other reason than I want them to beat the crap out of each other and need time to recover for the stretch run). Byes don't help either, but no one in the conference is hosting a DI-AA team this week, so there's that! Tennessee and Ole Miss are on the road at BCS foes.
9. ACC (0.71, 2.00; LW: 8). Holy bye week. Duke and Georgia Tech face off to start their ACC slates, and 5 other schools have the week off. This limits the effects of Boston College and Maryland hitting the road for games against other BCS schools, and only Syracuse needs the week to go eat a cupcake.
10. Big 12 (0.80, 1.50; LW: 10). The cellar dwellers remain there, but they didn't have as bad a week as a lot of other conferences did (though most of those conferences weren't really entirely at fault). Oklahoma State has an FCS team scheduled, and while you have a TCU/TTU battle that doesn't help the average, there's no trips to face BCS opponents this week. Texas does get to host Ole Miss, and Iowa State welcomes Iowa, which raised the numbers a bit, but not by a lot.

Quick math after looking over 3 weeks of games shows that we're up to 79 teams that have faced DI-AA opposition at some point this year (if you're Georgia State, they've faced two, though it's a transition year for them like it was for UTSA last year) after 16 more of those games happened this week. No entire conference is guilty quite yet, but a few are close (the Sun Belt for example has all but one team with frosting on its resume). Next week we dive a little more into conference play, but with enough of a dose of non-conference that we can keep up the format of the rankings. Stay tuned!

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