Express NBA Preview

This is a winter where I'm not really looking forward to professional sports, given that Gary Bettman's head is still not on a platter for all NHL fans to see and Derrick Rose is still rehabbing his knee. But with the NBA set to start tonight, I figured I'd set out on a quick NBA preview.

I'm going to make this a fairly quick one that will hopefully be more correct that my World Series prediction (which ended before I could really even begin it). I'll go over teams that I think can contend with reasons for why they can win the title versus why they can't.


Eastern Conference
 
Miami Heat
Last Year: 46-20, won NBA Championship
Why they can win: LeBron James is the best player in the league and is in his prime. He knows now how to win a title. Adding Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis made them even better than last year.
Why they can't win: With a healthy Wade, will he and LeBron go back to the alternating alpha dog formula that failed them up until last year's playoffs?

Boston Celtics
Last Year: 39-27, lost in Eastern Conference Finals
Why they can win: Despite Allen's defection, Pierce, KG and Rondo know how to win a title. Jeff Green is healthy, Jason Terry came aboard (Irrational Confidence guys can be huge), and this could be an Keyser Soze kind of team. I'm sure Bill Simmons would agree (yes, I know he's a Celtics fan, but still. The man knows basketball.)
Why they can't win: To an extent, this is Year 6 of a 3 year plan with KG and Pierce. Will Terry be able to fill Ray Ray's shoes? Did the layoff hurt Jeff Green? Do they have the athleticism to get past Miami? We'll get a taste tonight.

Indiana Pacers
Last Year: 42-24, lost in Eastern Conference Semifinals
Why they can win: Scrappy team that plays like a team. Good defense, everyone knows their role, they've been there before.
Why they can't win: Who's the alpha dog on this team? Who do you go to when you need a crucial hoop late in the game?

Chicago Bulls
Last Year: 50-16, lost in Eastern Conference Quarterfinals
Why they can win: A retooled Bench Mob looks decent, the core of the team remains intact still, and this team should be in the mix until spring when some point guard from Memphis is cleared to return from a knee injury. 
Why they can't win: Odds are said point guard won't quite be himself when he comes back. The onus is still on guys like Hamilton or Boozer to emerge as that other consistent scorer to take away some of the burden. It's not time quite yet. See Geoffy's blog post for a more in-depth Bulls preview.

Western Conference

Oklahoma City Thunder
Last Year: 47-19, lost in NBA Finals
Why they can win: They play a good brand of basketball and already have some playoff chops. Also, Kevin Durant is amazing.
Why they can't win: Which Russell Westbrook will show up this year? The other obvious problem that showed up last minute is the sudden trade of James Harden. Yes, OKC got some decent pieces back for him rather than let him walk at the end of the year, but the core that got them to the Finals last year is broken up. Who will take on the 2nd unit scoring load Harden did, or bring the ball up for them?

Los Angeles Lakers
Last Year: 41-25, lost in Western Conference Semifinals
Why they can win: Holy crap, that starting five. Dwight Howard joins a long lineage of great Laker centers, they have an old but still plenty capable point guard in Steve Nash, and that Kobe guy is still around.
Why they can't win: Your two best bench guys are Steve Blake and probably Devin Ebanks unless Antwan Jamison still has something left in the tank. Kobe's health is a question mark going in, and with his age, how long can he remain at a high level?

San Antonio Spurs
Last Year: 50-16, lost in Western Conference Finals
Why they can win: Playoff experience matters, and these guys have it. Tim Duncan is a consummate professional and knows how to win. They return a decent core.
Why they can't win: I'm just going to let this box score from last year speak for itself.

These are probably the 7 teams best equipped for a deep postseason run. the Knicks have health issues with Amare and that team construct just doesn't work, as we've seen the last 2 postseasons. Brooklyn is all hype. Atlanta is the sports town that sees regular season success followed up with disappointment in the playoffs. The Clippers don't really have the makeup of a championship team/have too many guys/are coached by Vinny Del Negro. Memphis' window is closing and Denver's is only now starting to open. I could be totally wrong, but right now I'm probably looking at a Miami-OKC rematch in the Finals again. And hopefully this time, the Thunder can last a little longer.

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 10

What a weekend for college football. My North Central Cardinals killed Illinois Wesleyan to solidify homecoming and move up the polls, and a handful of unbeatens fell on Saturday to really murk up the B(C)S rankings. It also makes trying to figure out the playoffs a lot harder since there will be a number of 1-loss teams to sort through and figure out who belongs and who doesn't. Again, I am open to commentary on who you think should be in as at-large teams or where teams are seeded. But before we get into that, here's the new scheduling rankings for the upcoming week of football.

1. WAC (6.86)- New Mexico State visits Auburn. (Yes, Auburn isn't very good this year, but it's still a trip to an SEC school).
2. Conference-USA (6.75)- Tulsa visits Arkansas.
3. MAC (6.62)- No change.
4. Sun Belt (6.6)- Florida Atlantic visits Navy, Troy visits Tennessee.
5. Mountain West (5.5)- Air Force visits Army.
6. Big East (5.38)- Pitt visits Notre Dame.
7. Big Ten (4.58)- No change.
8. ACC (3.5)- No change.
9. Pac-12 (3.33)- No change.
10. SEC (3.14)- Auburn hosts New Mexico State, Arkansas hosts Tulsa, Tennessee hosts Troy.
11. Big XII (2.6)- No change.

For those of you unfamiliar with how my playoff system works, it's based off of Dan Wetzel's system in Death to the BCS. The champions of the 11 conferences all get in automatically, plus 5 at large teams. For the purposes of COAS, I am something of a one-man selection committee, which is why I would love to hear a little feedback on who's in and where I'm seeding everybody, since I'm sure I could improve the system a little bit. But if the season had ended on Sunday morning, here's how the playoffs would have looked according to me. Again, teams labeled as "conference champions" have the best record in their respective conferences at the time, so a team with a better overall record might get left out due to this fact. So without further ado, here's who would get in. Last week's rankings can be found here.

Fall Classic Preview

I'm cutting it about as close as I can get to previewing the World Series. Really, this has been about a good a year for the playoffs as there has ever been, with 5 of the 6 series going the distance so far. It's teams that have been in the Classic fairly recently, and two great teams that have absolutely earned their way to this point so far. Given that we're just minutes from the start of Game 1, I'm going to throw this into quick preview mode.

Starting Pitching
Tonight the Tigers are probably going to win, if for no other reason that one Justin Verlander taking the hill. But I think top to bottom of the playoff rotation, I think the Giants are a little better. That's not a knock and guys like Scherzer or Fister, but more so a credit to the Cain/Lincecum/Baumgarner/Zito quartet. Slight edge: Giants.

Bullpen
The Tigers had some troubles during this postseason with closing, but they seem like they've figured things out. Meanwhile the Giants have had Sergio Romo fill in nicely for Brian Wilson in the 9th. Could go either way. Edge: push. 

Offense
You have the Triple Crown winner in Miguel Cabrera being protected by Prince Fielder. On the other side... just sheer balance up and down the lineup with the presumed NL MVP in Posey, and a guy with fire coming out of his rectum in Marco Scutaro. This could be fun. Edge: push.

Intangibles
In 2006, I said the Tigers were going to beat the Cardinals based on their rest and home field. They don't have home field this time, but got a lot of rest from the Yankee sweep. Meanwhile the Giants have played against the wall all postseason long it seems. The Giants seem to have "Nobody Believes in Us!" on their side based on the MLBtv guys. Edge: Giants.

Final Prediction
This is going to be a fun series. The pitching on both sides is great, and both teams have really good offenses. I think it comes down to depth in the rotation. Giants in 7.

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 9

No chaos to speak of this week, unless you count the fact that Wisconsin-Whitewater might not even make the D-III playoffs this year after dropping another game, their first in conference in years. Even so, the college football season continues to have quite a bit of drama as we're down now to 11 unbeatens in the FBS ranks, with Cincinnati dropping one on Saturday to Toledo. But before we get into a refreshed look at the playoffs, here's where each conference stands in terms of out-of-conference scheduling. All "no change" comments note a week where all play stays within the conference.

1. MAC (6.62)- Got a jump from Kent State and Massachusetts hitting the road to face Rutgers and Vanderbilt, respectively, plus a Ball State at Army contest.
2. Conference USA (6.5)- East Carolina hosts Navy.
3. WAC (6.42)- No change.
4. Sun Belt (6.1)- No change.
5. MWC (5.3)- No change.
6. Big East (5.13)- Rutgers hosts Kent State.
7. Big 10 (4.58)- No change.
8. ACC (3.5)- Georgia Tech hosts BYU.
9. Pac-12 (3.33)- No change.
10. SEC (2.93)- Vanderbilt hosts Massachusetts.
11. Big 12 (2.6)- Oklahoma hosts Notre Dame in a contest with playoff implications.

There were some decent-sized changes in the playoff structure from last week. Here's where everyone stands after 8 weeks of play. Again, realize that this is an "If the season ended today" scenario, where the best conference records give teams an unofficial conference title, even in conferences where a title game is played. This runs under the assumption that the team with the best in-conference record will win the conference title and get the automatic berth. Currently, all 5 at large bids were given to unbeaten teams, unfortunately leaving one unbeaten out in the cold. Last week's rankings can be found here.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 7

Hard to believe we're already to Week 7 of the NFL season. It's not as hard to believe that I've come back down to Earth and Nathaniel is catching up to me. We disagree on enough games that he can overtake me this week. We'll see how it goes.

Unfortunately, we're down a prognosticator this week. After Arnie went 0-1 this past week he went into a coma from eating candy. It's okay, he'll be back soon. Until then, here's our Week 7 picks.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

Lucas: 49ers. Tough to pick, but Seattle is too different a team away from the Pacific Northwest, and the Niners have revenge on their minds. They probably barely beat the spread.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. Let's all take a moment to recognize Richard Sherman's post-game picture with Tom Brady as one of the greatest trolling moments in NFL history. You want to talk about BRASS CAJONES and just a little bit more stupidity than you would expect from a Stanford grad, this Richard Sherman's got it. Hopefully he won't attempt the same thing if the Seahawks beat the Niners because, for serious here guys, there's no sport in picking on Alex Smith.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

Lucas: Bills. Two not very good teams. I’m taking the home team.

Nathaniel: Bills. What would happen if the 2009 Titans with 2009 Chris Johnson came in to play this Bills run defense on Sunday? Would we estimate the number of yards CJ2K would eventually rack up in the hundreds or thousands? Sounds like a question for WhatIfSports.com to answer! (Running simulation...waiting...) What? Just 138 yards on 24 carries?! Now I know that Sim engine is messed up. 

(Lucas note: Mine wasn't much better. 23 for 147 and a score. But the Bills won.)

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

Lucas: Colts. Brandon Weeden looked competent last week. I’m scared. I just don’t think he can replicate it on the road. Maybe Mike Holmgren put a voodoo curse on Brandon Weeden’s stuff yesterday before he left for good.

Nathaniel: Colts. Good news, Browns fans! Your new owner's got a plan! It just involves completely cleaning house and getting rid of your entire front office and coaching staff and starting over from scratch...again. Yikes. Please read this story to transport yourself to a happier time.

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (+5.5)

Lucas: Packers. A supervisor at work who recently left to be closer to his family is a big Rams fan, and in talking to him a few weeks ago he talked like the Rams can really only get field goals. Which with Legatron is a good thing as long as he’s not missing 3. The other problem… I think Aaron Rodgers is back.

Nathaniel: Rams. Much like Mary Tyler Moore or tinder made from various spongy types of fungus, these Rams have spunk and I expect that they'll have this be a close game at the end. And if not close, then at least dirty. They're always good for that.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Lucas: Cardinals. Don’t know why, but I feel like Arizona can cover this. Do I really have that much faith in John Skelton? Especially after...

Nathaniel: Cardinals. Call me primitive or Midwest-biased, but I had never actually seen John Skelton's face without a helmet on before a couple days ago. Thus, I took the liberty of typing "John Skelton" into Google. This is the picture that's associated with his name. AHHHH PUT RYAN LINDLEY IN NOW!!!!

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6.5)

Lucas: Redskins. The “Nobody Believes in Us” Factor doesn’t apply this week. The Giants seem due for a dud, even if they win.

Nathaniel: Redskins. Thing I'm most excited to see in this game: Chase Blackburn trying to chase down RGIII on a scramble. My guess is it's going to work about as well for Chase as it would for William Conrad trying to chase down Usain Bolt, but, really, the actual visuals will be better than anything I could dream up in my head.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

Lucas: Buccaneers. The Saints still have one more game with the interim interim coach. Also the pirate ship malfunctioned on Sunday so Greg Schiano couldn’t open fire even if he wanted to.

Nathaniel: Buccaneers. I don't want to jinx it or anything, but the Buccaneers looked like a juggernaut against the Chiefs last Sunday. Granted, looking like a juggernaut against the Chiefs is the same as looking mediocre against South Dakota State, but let's give them the benefit of the doubt here against a Saints defense that is still terribad.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)

Lucas: Cowboys. Cam Newton’s sophomore slump continues and the Cowboys still win despite Jason Garrett doing everything in his power to lose the game. Also I don’t think Arnie likes Jason Garrett anymore.

Nathaniel: Panthers. With Norv and Andy Reid both on bye weeks and looking like their days may finally be numbered, it's time for the next generation of Clock Management Disaster Enthusiasts to stand and accept the passing of the torch. Call me a dreamer or a naive optimist if you will, but I have all the faith in the world that Jason Garrett and Ron Rivera will rise up and burn all of their timeouts by the midway point of the third quarter. And when it happens...it shall be beautiful.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-6.5)

Lucas: Texans. Green Bay provided the blueprint to beat Houston: Put Aaron Rodgers in a dome and have him destroy everyone. Since Joe Flacco is no Aaron Rodgers and the Ravens saw their spirit and body break last week, Houston rebounds. (Yes, that’s 3 weeks in a row of Ravens/Bane parallels.)

Nathaniel: Ravens. I know basically half the Ravens' defense died last week, but shouldn't this line just be Houston by 3? On the other hand, the Ravens DID only beat the Chiefs by three on the road, so I can understand the opposing viewpoint as well. 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-4.5)

Lucas: Jaguars. I feel like the Jags will use that drubbing at the hands of the Bears as motivation to come out this week strong. And against Oakland, I see them at least covering.

Nathaniel: Raiders. Mike Mularkey must have enjoyed all the free press he got from Joe Biden in the Vice Presidential debate last week. It'll come in handy when he'll eventually be writing out resumes for open offensive coordinator gigs in 2014.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5)

Lucas: Jets. New England has looked quite mortal this year, and even though they’re at home, 10 ½ points is an awful lot to be giving these guys.

Nathaniel: Jets. Now, you and I both know that the Patriots are much, MUCH better than the Jets. But at the same time, they do have the same record, don't they? I'm taking the 10.5 points and if the Patriots end up winning 70-7 and Rex Ryan ends up roasting Mark Sanchez's foot over an open fire at midfield after the game, so be it.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

Lucas: Bengals. James Harrison should be thankful he’s not in Brian Mills’ shoes. Any character played by Liam Neeson that suffered “double-digit concussions” would just shrug it off and go back to killing Albanians for kidnapping his daughter. James Harrison would get fined by Roger Goodell for “dick measuring”.

Nathaniel: Bengals. And the national delusion that the Steelers are still a good team ends right about...now.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-5.5)

Lucas: Bears. We all know what happened the last time “bad guys” from Detroit tried to take out a strong Chicago team.

Nathaniel: Lions. Bears to win, Lions to cover. Although if Matt Stafford keeps throwing 60% of his passes sidearm or at a three-quarters angle, I might take the Bears defense and 5.5 points over Detroit.

Records so Far
Lucas: 44-47 (5-9 last week)
Nathaniel: 40-51 (6-8 last week)

Transcendent Spirit

Huge sports fan that I am, there are some moments that transcend the normal meaning of sports. In middle school one of my teammates in basketball was diagnosed with leukemia and despite playing some in his earlier years at St. Paul's, by 8th grade he was unable to compete. But during our final tournament of the year in Peoria, he started our final game. He was in long enough to receive the opening tip before we called timeout to sub him out. It was a moving moment even for those of us on the bench, who had no idea this was happening (or at least, I didn't.) He passed away about a year and a half later, and much of the St. Paul's community went to his visitation to pay their respects, myself included. I couldn't help but remember this game yesterday as St. Paul's did something quite similar.

Picture from St. Paul's Luther School Facebook page.

Many of you know my family's story, in particular my brother Logan, who was diagnosed with Duchenne muscular dystrophy in 2003. For almost 10 years I've watched his ability to move waste away, and he's been wheelchair bound for almost 2 years now. But while his muscles are weak, his heart and his spirit are incredibly strong.

When he was in 5th grade, the St. Paul's soccer coach asked my parents if Logan could be part of the team, and my parents agreed. For the most part Logan served as a manager and de facto cheerleader for his teammates and friends, and even got to play the final minute of that season. He could still walk at that point, but his balance was an issue, and my parents didn't want to risk him getting hurt, so his playing career ended there. Or so I thought.

In the weeks leading up to the end of this season, Coach Steve Drolema was planning a great finale for this team. Yesterday Zion Lutheran from Marengo made the trip out to Aurora for a couple short games to close out our season. In between games, the teams met at midfield for a pregame prayer led by Logan, and knowing about this game in advance, the kids from Marengo all signed a soccer ball to present to Logan with their favorite Bible verses on it.

Then, Logan made his first career start in soccer. He was at midfield to do the opening kickoff to a teammate, who quickly kicked it out of bounds so Logan could be subbed out. Needless to say, he left to a nice round of applause. His kick could not have been any better, right to his teammate.

I played soccer for St. Paul's for 4 years back in the day, and had some great memories of games at Jericho Park in Aurora and on the incredibly shortened field at Cross Lutheran in Yorkville. I scored once in my career, in 7th grade at home against Cross on what is probably my greatest feat of individual athleticism outside of catching any football thrown at or above head level today. Getting to see my brother take the field with his friends yesterday afternoon topped my goal and every moment I had wearing the much different Cougar uniform from back in the day.

My sincere thanks goes out to Coach Drolema and the entire St. Paul's community and staff for coming out to support this, as well as the coach of Zion-Marengo for agreeing to this special moment. And most of all to Logan, for being the ultimate teammate for 4 years and being part of a moment that transcends sport, and showing that his heart and his spirit outshine anything life can throw his way.

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 8

In the last 2 weeks, we've seen 5 teams ranked in the Top 5 go down. I love it. A little more chaos never hurt anyone. So as we look ahead at Week 8, it's finally time to start thinking about the Death to the BCS Playoffs that are going to be amazing to think about. Only 12 unbeatens remain, and since the Big East and SEC have half of those, that number will go down. Part of me still hopes that we'll have more than two unbeatens left when all is said and done, if for no other reason than to keep poking holes in the dying BCS.

So before we get going with a playoff preview, here's how the conferences' scheduling checks out going into Week 8 of the season.

1. WAC (6.43): Everyone is either in-conference or off this week, so no change at the top.
2. Conference-USA (6.42): Also no out of conference tilts this week. These are becoming rarer and rarer.
3. Sun Belt (6.1): Middle Tennessee is off to Mississippi State, which gave the conference a bit of a boost this week. Other than that, everyone is in conference or off.
4. MAC (6): Eastern Michigan hosts Army, while Buffalo and Toledo host Pitt and Cincinnati, respectively. Good scheduling this week.
5. Mountain West (5.3): No change this week with a lack of out of conference play.
6. Big East (5): Moved up a bit with Pitt and Cincy off to MAC schools. I like their willingness to hit the road for those types of games.
7. Big 10 (4.58): Indiana is off to Annapolis to face Navy. Other than that all play stays within Big 10 borders.
8. ACC (3.42): Nobody playing outside the confines of the conference this week.
9. Pac-12 (3.33): Stands pat with no out of conference games.
10. SEC (2.86): Mississippi State hosts Middle Tennessee to add a small amount to the scoring, but other than that, everyone is staying in the SEC.
11. Big XII (2.5): No one playing outside the conference means they remain in last place.

Now comes the fun part: looking at who would make the playoffs under Dan Wetzel's system. As a reminder, this is a 16 team playoff where the 11 conference champions make it along with 5 at large teams. Higher seeds host in the first 3 rounds before the national title game played at a neutral site. Bear in mind that this is with several games still to be played and something of an "if the season ended today" setup. Please also note that teams listed as "conference champions" are the teams currently with the best conference records, and for the purposes of these rankings they are given the championship bid. Obviously these spots are the most subject to change, but here's where we're at so far. A lot of the top does coincide somewhat with the BCS rankings.