College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 9

No chaos to speak of this week, unless you count the fact that Wisconsin-Whitewater might not even make the D-III playoffs this year after dropping another game, their first in conference in years. Even so, the college football season continues to have quite a bit of drama as we're down now to 11 unbeatens in the FBS ranks, with Cincinnati dropping one on Saturday to Toledo. But before we get into a refreshed look at the playoffs, here's where each conference stands in terms of out-of-conference scheduling. All "no change" comments note a week where all play stays within the conference.

1. MAC (6.62)- Got a jump from Kent State and Massachusetts hitting the road to face Rutgers and Vanderbilt, respectively, plus a Ball State at Army contest.
2. Conference USA (6.5)- East Carolina hosts Navy.
3. WAC (6.42)- No change.
4. Sun Belt (6.1)- No change.
5. MWC (5.3)- No change.
6. Big East (5.13)- Rutgers hosts Kent State.
7. Big 10 (4.58)- No change.
8. ACC (3.5)- Georgia Tech hosts BYU.
9. Pac-12 (3.33)- No change.
10. SEC (2.93)- Vanderbilt hosts Massachusetts.
11. Big 12 (2.6)- Oklahoma hosts Notre Dame in a contest with playoff implications.

There were some decent-sized changes in the playoff structure from last week. Here's where everyone stands after 8 weeks of play. Again, realize that this is an "If the season ended today" scenario, where the best conference records give teams an unofficial conference title, even in conferences where a title game is played. This runs under the assumption that the team with the best in-conference record will win the conference title and get the automatic berth. Currently, all 5 at large bids were given to unbeaten teams, unfortunately leaving one unbeaten out in the cold. Last week's rankings can be found here.

1. Florida (7-0, SEC Champion, NCSS: 1): Granted, Florida has only played one game outside the conference but technically that 6-0 SEC slate so far is what gives them the edge based on the parameters set above (that I forgot about last week). They close out the year with 3 non-conference games, so we'll see that score of 1 go up before all is said and done.
2. Oregon (7-0, Pac-12 Champion, NCSS: 1): Tough call to pick the #2 at this point, and decided on style points over a strong out-of-conference slate (or lack thereof here). Oregon has beaten 2 ranked opponents and their smallest margin of victory has been 17 over Fresno State. Obviously their defense has done enough to make sure the huge amount of offense generated leads to blowouts, and unlike the BCS computer formulas, margin of victory matters.
3. Notre Dame (7-0, At-Large, NCSS: 13): Again, their out-of-conference score will be much, much higher compared to everyone else's. But they've beaten 3 teams ranked at the time, and have survived the close games. They still have 2 stern road tests left this season, and if they can run the table, they might move up in the seedings.
4. Kansas State (7-0, Big 12 Champion, NCSS: 2): This spot was another tough one. I'm not impressed with K-State's out of conference slate, but they've been pretty convincing in a lot of their wins so far. They've really stepped up on the road against Big 12 foes, and that deserves credit.
5. Rutgers (7-0, Big East Champion, NCSS: 4): Taking Howard from Week 2 out of the equation, they've played a pretty tough schedule, but they've had to keep grinding out wins. They also have yet to play Cincinnati or Louisville, which could tip the balance of this conference.
6. Alabama (7-0, At-Large, NCSS: 4): The 2nd of 3 SEC teams this week, Bama is relegated to at-large status because of the earlier technicality mentioned. Other than an overrated at the start of the year Michigan team, Alabama really hasn't played anyone of consequence, but they've been dominant thus far. Their upcoming battle with Mississippi State will loom large in this picture. Speaking of which...
7. Mississippi State (7-0, At-Large: NCSS: 3): They've already had their cupcake (Bama hasn't yet), but this Bama game looms large. No matter what, there will be no more than 10 unbeatens left after this week, and whoever loses this Bama- Miss St. game might end up out of the playoff picture in next week's edition. Stay tuned.
8. Oregon State (6-0, At-Large, NCSS: 4): They still have a makeup game with Norfolk State on the docket, but it looks like they've been getting stronger as the season goes on. A good out of conference win against Wisconsin helped tremendously.
9. Ohio (7-0, At-Large, NCSS: 5): Tough call on the last at-large team with Louisville in the running as well. Louisville scored higher on my metric (7) than Ohio did, but looking at opponent records, Louisville has beaten a lot of bad teams while Ohio has beaten mediocre ones. So for this edition, I have to leave out one unbeaten just based on the system despite my not wanting to, which makes me glad this isn't the final edition. Plus as mentioned above, one unbeaten at least will get knocked off next week, so assuming both Ohio and Louisville win, they will both be in the playoffs through next week.
10. Northern Illinois (7-1, MAC Champion, NCSS: 5): The reason Ohio is the at-large team out of the MAC is because they are 3-0 in MAC play compared to NIU's 4-0. But the Huskies have looked good in MAC play so far (and really the season in general save the one point loss to Iowa on opening weekend).
11. Florida State (7-1, ACC Champion, NCSS: 1): Before you flood my Twitter/comment feed/whatever with "Are you insane?! FSU is worlds better than NIU!", remember I'm considering body of work in these seedings, and while the Seminoles are in the top 10 in scoring offense and defense, they padded those numbers with a pair of FCS teams to start the year. They've done really well in ACC play, you know, other than at the end of the NC State game, but I can't overlook those early cupcakes. If they were to go head-to-head, I'd even say FSU would kill NIU, but body of work is what counts here. This could change before all is said and done though, so we'll see what happens as the season winds down.
12. Tulsa (7-1, C-USA Champion, NCSS: 3): The biggest loss of the 3 1-loss conference champs (15 to Iowa State), but the Golden Hurricanes have scored a lot of points this season. They have Arkansas looming in a couple weeks, which could raise their seeding.
13. Boise State (6-1, MWC Champion, NCSS: 7): It's been a couple years since these guys have been won a conference title, so it's good to see them at the top of a standings board again. That tough loss in the opener to Michigan State hurt, but their defense is stout and if their record holds up they'll be right in the thick of things again.
14. Utah State (6-2, WAC Champion, NCSS: 9): They've suffered a pair of close losses to Wisconsin and BYU. Based on their record, I also didn't have to bump UTSA this week since they lost this past weekend and are now 5-2 with a loss in conference play.
15. Michigan (5-2, Big 10 Champion, NCSS: 6): Why yes, I did bump the Big 10 champion all the way down to the 15 seed. It's tough, considering their 2 losses are to teams in the playoffs (Alabama and Notre Dame) and how well they've taken care of business aside from those 2 losses and the lack of cupcakes on their slate this year. I'm sure this will even out though as we go along, considering where the at-large teams are at right now.
16. Louisiana-Monroe (5-2, Sun Belt Champion, NCSS: 9): Slightly less forgivable losses this year (Auburn and Baylor, though both major programs so not unforgivable), they've played a lot of overtime this year so far. They also don't have a cupcake on their slate this year so far, which helps, as did the exposing of Arkansas for what they appear to be this season.

I definitely think these prognostications are a little on the crazy side, given the nature of the way I set things up before the season ends. If you think certain teams should have gotten at-large bids that didn't or that I seeded a team to high or too low, feel free to let me know and tell me why you think I did a team injustice so I can keep that in mind for next week. We'll have much different rankings next week with teams falling and maybe some surprise upsets in store. We'll have to find out.