2022 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 4

The coalition is back at it again in the wake of the Great Reversal as we prepare for Week 4 of the NFL season!

I mention the Great Reversal again because it was a key talking point going into Week 3. But if the reversal happened... it hit my co-authors more so than it hit me.

While I had a nice bounceback week, it was Joe who shined in Week 3, as he took four of our seven disputed games and picked up a five game sweep of Adam, while I swept the four disputed games with Adam.

Adam's Great Reversal sees him drop into a tie with Joe, but they are only three games off the lead both in the column and in the group (bearing in mind that I screwed up a Week 2 pick and have one more win on ESPN than I should). You can also view how we've picked in relation to each other here. The big story through three weeks is that while we suck when we agree (a 3-7 mark in consensus games is... not great), anyone who's gone hero has seen a ton of early success (a combined 14-4 mark for those of us brave enough to do so).

Adam and I are also working on a new feature to add to the weekly column, as he went a little more in depth and was grabbing numbers by home/road and breaking that down further by favorites and underdogs. He also broke it down by game time, and I'm hoping to be able to have these numbers available as well.

As we look ahead to Week 4, Adam and I disagree on a whopping nine games (you'll see why), Joe and I on only three, and Joe and Adam on ten (again, you'll see why). Let's get to it!

2022 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 3

The coalition is back as we prepare for the upcoming Week 3 Reversal that's been teased the past couple weeks!

...unless, of course, the reversal has already come. The group as a whole did... not have a particularly good performance in Week 2. I was panicking late Sunday afternoon that I was on track for a record worst performance, but managed a couple late wins to salvage a reasonable performance and keep me in contention. The top of the standings flipped, however, as Adam took four of our six disputed games, Joe and I split our six disputed games, and Adam took three of four from Joe.

Group standings can be found here, bearing in mind that they are no longer accurate. This time though it was me who screwed up, picking the Broncos for the column but taking the Texans on ESPN, and the column picks are what counts officially. You can also view how we've picked in relation to each other here. A change was made on Thursday night, with Hunter removed from the contest due to not picking any games, so that chart should now be significantly less confusing.

I also forgot to mention a rule back at the outset; this only came up because it was asked as I was writing this week's column. Each of us are granted four changes between when the column goes live and when the games kick off that we can use for any reason. So far none have been used through two weeks.

As we prepare to deal with the Great Reversal, Adam and I disagree on four games out of 16, Joe and I on seven, and Adam and Joe on five. Let's get to it!

2022 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 2

One week down, the coalition returns to work for the next round of picking NFL games against the spread!

For most of us, this was about par for the course in the opener. I took two of three disputed games from Adam and a whopping five of six from Joe, and Adam took four of five in Week 1. The result of that bloodbath has me with a narrow lead in the group through 16 games, Adam right on my tail, and Joe returning to the basement.

If you check the group, you may notice a 0-0 record for Hunter, one of our new contestants. He entered his picks on the wrong thing, but I'm not going to penalize him for that. We'll give him a mulligan this round and mark him at 0-0, then see how he does from here.

You can view how we've all picked in relation to each other here. It was a good week for hero picks as those of us who opted for them were successful in our first attempts of the year, while the more agreed upon picks saw less success in the opening week. I had to adjust the sheet to account for Hunter not entering picks in the right group, but everything from Week 1 should be accounted for now.

And so we return to column format for Week 2; Joe sent me his picks in advance but did not have time to do any writeups for any games, so his picks are presented without context. This week, Adam and I disagree on 6 games, Joe and I on 6, and Adam and Joe on 4. Let's get to it!

2022 COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em: Week 1

 Like a phoenix rising from the ashes... we return.

Work has been chaotic over the past several months, and it largely prevented me from posting a lot since a wonderful night at Merner Fieldhouse. But with the NFL season about to get underway and the coalition returning for another year... it's time to get back to it.

The Confessions of a Sportscaster Pigskin Pick 'Em contest returns for its 11th year. For the tenth time Adam Quinn is a member of the group, and for the ninth year he will join me for this weekly feature. Also joining us for his first full season is Joe Klecka.

The group is rounded out by old regulars Jim Haupert and friend of the program Geoffrey Clark, and this year as of posting time we are joined by Joe and Adam's friend Hunter as well as my friend Tom. Adding a sixth and seventh means I'll have to change my formula around on the sheet where we compare how we've fared against each other since we've only had five the past couple of years, but we can make this work.

And so let's kick off the fun for the 2022 campaign... this opening week in podcast form!

Game Notes: (MBK) Elmhurst University @ North Central College (1/24/22)

Final Score
NCC 79, Elmhurst 70

Game Summary
Early on, this seemed like a repeat of the Illinois Wesleyan game as the Blue Jays (12-5, 4-4) jumped out to a 17-4 lead just five and a half minutes into the game, forcing Todd Raridon to burn his second early timeout. The Cardinals (11-5, 6-2) had to burn a third at the halfway point of the first half as Elmhurst built a 32-11 advantage. North Central followed that timeout with a 9-0 run, but couldn't trim it to single digits as the Jays took a 45-29 lead into the locker room. A couple early second half Cardinal pushes were negated by answers from Elmhurst, especially halfway through the second half when the Cardinals surrendered a fast break dunk by the Jays to push their lead to 15. But then the Cardinals started to claw their way back, scoring eight straight to cut it to single digits. Elmhurst still led by nine with a little over seven minutes to go before the Cardinals embarked on a decisive 14-0 run that gave the Cardinals their first lead of the game, and the Jays would not recover.

Key Players

• Matt Helwig (NCC): 9-12 FG (1-2 3PT), 2-5 FT; 21 pts, 9 reb (1 off), 5 ast, 1 stl. Having just been crowned the CCIW Men's Basketball Student-Athlete of the Week, the nation's third-leading scorer ended up a little below his season average in this one, but was still a key portion of the comeback in this one. He helped keep the Cardinals in it with 10 points in the first half, then kept them in it for most of the second half before scoring two points during the key 14-0 run. His nine rebounds tied the game-high.
• Shea Cupples (NCC): 6-10 FG (5-9 3PT)l 17 pts, 6 reb, 7 ast. First off, that's a pretty good Connor Raridon-esque box score. Second off, let's differentiate the numbers by half. Shea had four assists and a couple rebounds in the first half, but was 0-4 from beyond the arc and I wasn't feeling super confident in him at the break. But then the second half started. He hit back to back triples fairly early that cut into Elmhurst's half-high lead of 17 points, added a third that trimmed it to four, a fourth that gave the Cardinals their first lead of the game, then served up the dagger with about two minutes to go when he banked home a fifth, followed next time down by adding a layup to push the lead to eight. I think this was easily the best game of Shea's career, and I'm dubbing this, at least for now, The Shea Cupples Game.
• Jake Rhode (ELM): 5-18 FG (2-14 3PT); 12 pts, 3 reb (1 off), 1 ast. Rhode is going to be a unanimous First Team All-CCIW and will likely finish the year as an All-American. So it wasn't a surprise in the early going when he hit two of his first three trey attempts to help get the Jays out to an early 17-4 lead; his second forced the second NCC timeout. So you'd be forgiven for thinking game more or less over five and a half minutes in with him off to a good start. And yet now, look at his final line for the game and marvel at it. He missed his final 11 shots from beyond the arc, something seemingly unthinkable given his history. If he's any closer to his normal self, we're talking about a completely different ball game, considering the help he had from his supporting cast in this game.

Key Stats

• NCC: 8-16 FT (50.0%). This is alarming. And it also factors in a 2-5 night at the stripe by Matt Helwig, who is now ninth in the country in free throw percentage thanks in part to a streak of 61 consecutive makes that was snapped on Saturday at Carthage. They got away with it in this one somehow, but may not again.
• ELM: 7-26 3PT (26.9%). It wasn't just Rhode. The whole Blue Jay team was a tale of two halves. They were hot early as part of building that huge early lead and finished 7-14 from deep in the first half. Those of you who are quick at math will note that that means an 0-12 second half. Rhode took six of those 12 triples that missed, so it wasn't just him that went cold; it was really the whole team.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• IWU 89 (15-2, 8-1), @ CAR 72 (8-9, 1-7)

Final Thoughts

Photo by Steve Woltmann

The Miracle on Brainard Street. The Oshkosh game. Recent years have been kind to Merner Fieldhouse in the number of amazing finishes and outstanding games. And now, The Shea Cupples Game can be added to the lore of legend. I have to count, but I know I'm getting close to the century mark of North Central men's basketball games I've announced. And when the time comes, I want to do a countdown of the best/my favorites. Those two aforementioned games will be at or near the top of the list. And now... so will this one.

#ElmhurstBlewA21PointLead https://t.co/rMxFNqUVTr

— Lucas Mitzel🎙 (@northsider89) January 25, 2022

It was unbelievable even as it was happening. You don't expect after getting your butt kicked for the first ten minutes of a game that you're going to be in it, but the Cardinals never gave up. And even then, with the Cardinals threatening and ultimately pulling back within single digits, it didn't seem like it was going to happen. We were all kind of waiting for the other shoe to drop; Rhode was due to hit eventually. But he kept missing, the Cardinals continued to claw back, he kept missing, all of the sudden it was a one possession game, and then the next thing you know the Cardinals have a lead with under five minutes to go, then they push it out and get a dagger with just couple minutes to go and a building that was limited in fans due to COVID restrictions was as loud as it's been since the Oshkosh game.

I don't want to say this was a must-win for the Cardinals, but in a way it was. This was the halfway point of the conference slate with a pair of losses combined with some struggles in non-conference that won't give this squad a lot of leeway when it comes time to start looking at regional rankings and think about building out a tournament bracket. And even in the CCIW itself, coming into a year where the projection was a big three of Illinois Wesleyan/Wheaton/Elmhurst with the Cardinals a tier below, an 0-2 start against that triumvirate had those projections looking spot on. Instead, with the win North Central finds itself a half game up on Wheaton for second place. With a sweep of eighth place Carthage in hand and one more to go against everyone except North Park, whom the Cardinals have yet to play, this team is in good shape, but doesn't have a lot of margin for error with eight to go.

The second half of CCIW play begins Wednesday as the Cardinals welcome in Augustana. NCC has a win over the Vikings at Carver already in the books and is looking to keep pace with Illinois Wesleyan. Oh yeah... and The Belt^TM is going to be in the building on Wednesday.

Game Notes: (WBK): Elmhurst University @ North Central College (1/24/22)

Final Score
NCC 72, Elmhurst 50

Game Summary
This one was never in doubt, as despite the Blue Jays (2-15, 0-9) taking a 3-2 lead a minute and a half into the contest, that was all they'd get in the opening ten minutes as the Cardinals (7-10, 4-4) cruised out to a 19-3 lead by the end of the quarter. The run finished out at 19-0 before the Blue Jays finally got the lid off the basket. The lead grew to 20 by the halfway point of the second, and the Cardinals took a 22 point advantage into the locker room. North Central pushed the lead as high as 26 in the third, and while the Blue Jays made a mini push right at the end of the third into the fourth, but got no closer than 18 while the Cardinals got the lead as high as 29 before lead assistant Chrissi Ekhomu called off the dogs in the final minutes.

Key Players

• Elle Sutter (NCC): 9-16 FG (2-6 3PT), 1-3 FT; 21 pts, 4 reb (2 off), 2 ast, 5 stl. Elle is quickly turning into a piece the Cardinals can build around for the future. I'd completely forgotten about the collection of steals, but she wreaked havoc on a mostly young Elmhurst backcourt and got quite a few breakaway layups. With her size as well, she's rounding into a strong all-around player. I don't think she's All-CCIW quality... at least not yet, but she's trending in the right direction.
• IxChel Leeuwenburgh (NCC): 6-6 FG, 3-4 FT; 15 pts, 9 reb (5 off), 1 ast, 1 stl. I haven't really been able to hype up one of my favorite Cardinals of late, but she showed up in this one. She had plenty of open looks for layups, and did a good job at the line as well. But the team's best rebounder showed up in this one despite only having three boards at halftime (which I thought seemed low because she seemed to keep ending up with loose balls). When she stays out of foul trouble... she's a problem on the boards, and showed she can't be ignored on offense either.
• Marissa Urso (ELM): 5-8 FG (1-2 3PT), 2-2 FT; 13 pts, 2 reb (1 off), 2 ast, 1 stl. Not a lot of positives to write home about for this one for the Blue Jays, so we'll go with the veteran guard who put up decent numbers in an otherwise forgettable night for the visitors.

Key Stats

• NCC: Outrebounded Elmhurst 44-31. I feel like the Jays had a slight size advantage in this one, but it sure didn't seem like it. That's an impressive rebounding margin for the Cardinals, who collected 18 offensive rebounds leading to 20 second chance points. Elmhurst, by comparison, had seven for six points.
• ELM: 21 turnovers. I feel like 20 is kind of the magic number for turnovers in women's basketball. It's not necessarily a causal link or anything, but anecodotally seems like if you hit that mark in turnovers you're going to have a bad time. And sure enough, the Blue Jays did, with their 21 giveaways leading to 28 Cardinal points. The Jays, for comparison, had 12 off 14 Cardinal turnovers. These two stats more or less tell the story.

CCIW Scoreboard Watch

• IWU 68 (11-7, 8-1), @ NPU 49 (11-5, 4-4)
• AUG 67 (8-10, 2-7), @ CRL 58 (12-4, 4-4)

Final Thoughts
Looking at records in advance, I expected a win. I did not expect the Jays to go almost ten minutes between baskets in the early going while the Cardinals built an insurmountable lead, but that's what ended up happening. It was more or less cruise control from there on out for a Cardinal team down its head coach, as Maggie McCloskey-Bax missed her second straight game due to COVID. Chrissi Ekhomu is 2-0 as the acting head coach, and from what I've heard McCloskey-Bax is doing okay.

I'm skipping the "halfway through conference play" post this year because of all the postponements we've had that have thrown the schedules off, but North Central has knocked out half of its schedule with two against Carroll still to go and a sweep of Carthage in the books. At this stage, we have a couple of tiers. Millikin and Illinois Wesleyan are the class of the conference at 8-1 apiece (with the Titans holding the tiebreaker so far). At the bottom end, you have this Blue Jay team as well as a struggling Augie team (who did get a big win at Carroll on Monday, in fairness)... and then North Central clustered in a group with the rest of the conference. You've got five teams more or less fighting for those last four spots, and the Cardinals are right in the thick of it. The worst loss was by 15 at the Shirk Center in a game the Cardinals led at halftime, as well as 13 point loss at Wheaton, but the other two losses are quality: by six at Millikin and the overtime heartbreaker at home against North Park last week I didn't get to write a recap about. The aforementioned Carthage sweep, plus taking care of business against the bottom of the league has the Cardinals in good position with eight to go.

The upcoming schedule is pretty favorable as they'll get a chance to face those teams in the cluster a second time (or both times, in the case of the Pios) and get the two leaders at home. First up on Wednesday is a rematch with an Augustana team the Cardinals dispatched fairly easily last week.

Game Notes: (WBK) Augustana College @ North Central College (1/17/22)

Final Score
NCC 75, Augustana 59

Game Summary
After two weeks' worth of postponements due to COVID issues and a tough road loss at Wheaton, the Cardinals (5-8, 2-3) finally returned home for a contest, and after surrendering a three early, the Cardinals scored six straight, then traded threes with the Vikings (7-6, 1-5) to go back up by three points. That was Augie's high water mark, as the Cardinals had a brief double digit lead get brought down to seven after one quarter. North Central then opened the second on a 9-0 run to push the lead to 16, though the Vikings would rally in the final few minutes to trim it to 37-31 at halftime. Augie scored to open the second half and cut it to four, but a 13-3 run by the Cardinals proved to be the difference. North Central pushed the lead to 16 by quarter's end, and the Vikings would never pull back within single digits.

Key Players

• Allison Pearson (NCC): 4-11 FG (1-8 3PT), 8-8 FT; 17 pts, 2 reb, 5 ast, 1 stl. On a night where her long ball wasn't falling, Pearson still found a way to make an impact. She made the most of her trips to the line, distributed the ball well, and played solid defense. Another good showing from the senior leader.
• Mitrese Smith (NCC): 3-10 FG, 7-8 FT; 13 pts, 7 reb (3 off), 3 ast, 1 blk, 1 stl. That's a good filling of the stat sheet. Smith made a point of wanting to average a double-double this season, and while she's not at that mark (9.8-5.4) she's still upped her game this season. Her jumper from the elbow is nigh automatic, but what impressed me most in this one was her free throw shooting. She's at about 75 percent on the season, improving her numbers with an excellent performance in this one. 
• Emily Brenneisen (AUG): 6-13 FG (2-5 3PT); 14 pts, 4 reb, 3 ast, 2 stl. There were a few Vikings I could have gone with; we'll opt for the leading scorer who helped out in a few other areas as well. This is a good shooting line, she did a decent job on the boards, and played pretty good defense on the whole. And by the way: she's only a freshman. I'd expect to see this team build around her in the years to come.

Key Stats

• NCC: Outscored Augie in bench points 30-3. I feel like I don't focus a lot on bench scoring. It's a big part of the game, but one I tend to stay away from in favor of shooting numbers, rebounding margin, or things like points off turnovers/in the paint/second chance. But a 30-3 edge in this category is something. Every Cardinal that saw the floor on Monday scored, and the scoring was pretty balanced up and down the lineup. It's one of those good team wins you like to see. Jessica Kowalczyk paced the reserves with 11, with Megan McClure adding eight and Stephanie Kowalczyk chipping in six.
• AUG: 20-59 FG (33.9%). For reference, the Vikings are shooting just a tick above 40 percent for the year to date, so to hold them to this line was really good. A cold first quarter (5-21) kind of doomed them, though that second quarter helped get the numbers back closer to the season average.

Final Thoughts
It was weird to do a Monday night game in January, but given the postponements this has been the plan for the CCIW to make up lost ground. Next week will be crazy with a Monday night doubleheader against Elmhurst.

Photo by Steve Woltmann

For this past Monday night though, this was probably the best game I've seen the Cardinals play in quite some time. They shot well, defended well, and outrebounded a bigger team that played a very physical game. They didn't let a super slow-paced second half drag them down, and most importantly, they didn't have the dreaded cold spell late in the game that cost them often in 2021.

It's a key win in what's part of a major chunk of the schedule coming up against teams all clustered together in the middle of the conference. It's not must-win, every night, but the games are all important, and taking as many as possible is key for postseason hopes. That quest continues Wednesday night as the Cardinals welcome North Park to Merner.