2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 3

Wow, what a week this past week has been. Most of the chaos has been at the NFL level of course, but you all know how I feel about the whole Penn State under-the-radar reinstatement. At the moment, I still refuse to reinstate them for the Death to the BCS Playoffs. There's a culture problem there, and I address it in the above post. But enough about stupid fans.

We've played three weeks of football, so the Playoff Points metric is starting to gain a little bit more credibility in terms of separating the haves from the have-nots. It's a metric that builds upon itself as the season goes on, which is why I like it so much. What seems like a great win early in the season based on biased polls can mean more of what it's supposed to mean in this system.

If you want to refer back to last week's rankings, you can view them here (or click the link to the post on the sidebar). An explanation of how the Playoff Points system works can be found back at the Week 1 post. But let's see how this weekend's action impacts each conference. All scores are rounded to the nearest hundredth for the sake of space, but any rounded ties will be unrounded to determine which is higher, then rerounded for the blog post.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 2

It's been a crazy football week, especially in the NFL. At least on the field, things were for the most part normal.

It was a pretty strong debut for the coalition for the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em. I stayed on my 2013 pace, but it has me in 2nd place out of four competitors this season. You can view the standings so far here.

So this week, Adam and I are at the picks again. Can I regain some ground in a follow up effort? This week, groupthink prevails, as we only disagree on 3 out of 16 picks. Doesn't bode too well for an early comeback and a flip in the standings. Let's take a look at the picks.

Did the Punishment Fit the Crime?

Photo by Matthew O'Haren (USA TODAY Sports)

Yesterday, amidst the chaos of the most recent Ray Rice fallout, the NCAA tried to sneak through news that Penn State was being reinstated. They now have all their scholarships again, and are eligible for the College Football Playoff this year. This ends what turned out to be about a two year suspension for the program, out of what was a four year sentence. So did the punishment fit the crime then? Did it fit now that we have the benefit of hindsight?

Yesterday, I still wasn't sure how to feel about the reinstatement. I was open to it, but I felt that the timing was absolutely terrible. Then, I saw a Dan Wetzel tweet last night.

At Penn St, celebration for end of Sandusky sanctions turns to restoring Paterno Statue https://t.co/ckI0PGlZii (via @OnwardState)
— Dan Wetzel (@DanWetzel) September 9, 2014

Let me be clear. I have no problem with the fact that students, alums, and other fans assembled to celebrate. That's their right. I might have done the same in their situation. It's a good thing to get your team back to full strength. But the lengths they went to are disturbing. These people are demanding the reinstatement of a statue of someone who admitted they didn't do enough.

There are a few common arguments that Penn State fans and others have been using against the sanctions. "The NCAA doesn't have jurisdiction over what happened." "The people responsible for what happened are no longer at Penn State." "You're punishing innocent kids." "This has nothing to do with the football program." On and on it goes. In 2012, I addressed a few of these concerns. I think they still hold true today.

Obviously, I don't know the exact details of what happened in State College between 1998 and 2011, when the subhuman Jerry Sandusky was finally arrested for his crimes. But based on the Freeh Report (which yes, I know, has some question marks to it based on the reputation of Louis Freeh), unless the emails they found are fake, the following facts can be established.

1. In May of 1998, there was a police report filed regarding Sandusky showering with one of the victims. An investigation takes place, but police decide there's not enough evidence to charge him. By early June, the investigation is closed.
2. During this time, PSU officials (including Joe Paterno, according to emails), are kept up to date with the proceedings. They know there's an investigation here.
3. In 1999, Sandusky retires as an assistant coach of the football team. Despite the lack of precedent for such a move, on August 31 of that year, Sandusky was granted emeritus rank, which allowed him continued access to "recreational facilities" on campus.
4. In 2000, then again in 2001, janitors and Mike McQueary, respectively, saw alleged sexual misconduct in the football building. While the janitors never reported what they witnessed, McQueary told his father about it, and then went to tell Joe Paterno.
5. Joe Paterno told a grand jury in 2011 that McQueary told him something sexual in nature happened in the building. Paterno reported it to his superiors, and they met more than once to follow up on the allegations. Despite this, no police report is filed.

I mentioned this in 2012, and I'll say it again. The 1998 investigation was handled the way it should have been. The police got involved, and authorities at Penn State, including Paterno, knew about it. If police didn't have enough evidence to do anything in 1998, I can give the Penn State leaders a pass at that moment. As soon as the 2001 incident came to their attention, their thoughts should have gone back to 1998. Even though there wasn't enough in '98, the fact that a second report, completely unrelated to the first, came out should have raised suspicion. The police should have been contacted. And don't start with the "Gary Schultz was in charge of the campus police!" His title was "Senior Vice President- Finance and Business". If he was in charge of police, his knowledge of these allegations meant he had an obligation to open an investigation too. If police aren't contacted, didn't these men at least have the obligation to revoke Sandusky's access to the football facility?

I don't know what the rationale was in 2001 for not doing more. But based on the facts above, I remain convinced that Paterno, Spanier, Schultz and Curley are all at the very least morally guilty for not doing more to dig into this. Had a police investigation been opened and nothing been found, these men would not be facing the scrutiny they are. Instead it would fall on the police, based on wondering how they could have found nothing not once, but twice.

So back to 2014. For people to think Paterno was innocent (I'm looking at the attorney general as well, despite the claim that Paterno probably wouldn't have faced charges had he not passed away in early 2012) is naive at best. Unquestionably, he did a lot of good for a lot of people. But we can't forget about the people he failed.

These fans need to realize that it''s okay to celebrate the release of sanctions. They just need to remember why the sanctions were imposed in the first place. Problem is, they aren't. This is why the sanctions were necessary in the first place. People claim there isn't a culture problem at Penn State, but there clearly is. People want not only the statue, but Paterno's official win total to be brought back to its on the field total of 409. Paterno's legacy is more important to some people than what happened in the football facility 15 years ago. That's why I tweeted this last night after seeing Wetzel's tweet.

The more I see, the more I think Penn State should have gotten the death penalty. They don't get it.
— Lucas Mitzel (@northsider89) September 9, 2014

Priorities, people. You can be happy that sanctions got reduced. Just remember what put you in a position to celebrate their removal in the first place.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 3

We've got one week of NFL football in the books, and now the college season is starting Week 3 on Thursday. I love this time of year.

I've been able to start measuring Playoff Points to a greater degree with a couple weeks worth of data in the books, and you can see the analysis here. Even though the Playoff Point metric is better, I still think the NCSS metric is an important one, as it faces the reality that a lot of teams suck at scheduling out of conference tests.

We're starting to get into more of a conference play time of year, but there are still plenty of non-conference tilts left, including a bunch this week. If you want to refer back to last week's rankings, you can view them here. Let's take a look at this week.

The Dark Side of Sports, Part II

Photo uncredited

Wow, it's been crazy today.

Ozzie Newsome took the advice of my open note at the end of that post (...fine, he caved to collective peer pressure) and released Ray Rice. About an hour later, the NFL indefinitely suspended him.

Most of these issues I tackled in the above post, but to recap: the Ravens did the right thing... finally. The NFL also did the right thing... finally. Rice has no recourse with the Ravens, but the NFL Players Association will fight the NFL's decision. It's a second suspension for the same offense. I doubt it stands up. They may go for a middle ground; my coworker thinks that the suspension will ultimately be six games to equal the new system. If he can be reinstated at any point, I would hope NFL general managers realize they will be inviting heavy condemnation if they sign him. If he pays some sort of debt to society and truly repents, I'd be open to him returning, same as Michael Vick. But that isn't happening anytime soon.

Photo by Gene J. Puskar (AP)

Meanwhile, the NCAA decided that this afternoon would be the perfect time to pull a fast one and reinstate Penn State.

Honestly, I'm not sure what the rationale is behind this. What's clear is that the timing is terrible. They knew it would be a controversial decision, and saw a perfect smokescreen with Ray Rice. Fortunately, most of us are smart enough to see through that.

I'm just not sure where to cast my opinion on the decision itself. When the punishment first came down, I was wholeheartedly in support of it. But I need more information. Has the school fully taken steps to turn the corner from a dark part of its history?

@northsider89 time heals all wounds....go back and see how from top to bottom they hid the rape of boys. You'll remember .
— Imperial Intern (@Imperial_Intern) September 8, 2014

Penn State supporters argue that the penalty was unfairly punishing athletes who had nothing to do with what happened. But as much as I dislike the system, bowl games are a privilege, not a right. Officials high up sure seemed like they covered up heinous crimes to protect their football program, and their supposedly sainted head coach was in the middle of it all. The NCAA punished a program that placed football as a higher priority than lives, something I've repeatedly condemned.

So what's the rationale for lifting it now? Has the school done enough to try to atone for the damage caused? I don't have enough information to be the judge of that. Even so, I'm skeptical of this decision, especially given when it was announced. Because of that skepticism, I'm keeping Penn State ineligible for the Death to the BCS Playoffs unless there's enough out there to justify the decision.

The events of today are a great reminder to us all. Sports are great. They can bring people together in ways a lot of other things can't. But sometimes we get too engrossed in sport, and let it blind us to the things that really matter. Temper yourselves, and be careful not to fall into the trap.

The Dark Side of Sports

If you're a regular reader of COAS, or if you know me personally, you know I love sports. It's almost to a fault. I love playing them, watching them, writing about them... it's a big list. It's one of those things that definitely has its flaws and corruptions, but for many of us, we put it on the back burner and deal with it. Sometimes, we see things so heinous that tie to sports, that we are forced to confront the issue head on.

Photo from Getty Images

You've no doubt heard the story by now. Ravens running back Ray Rice made headlines back in February when video was leaked showing him dragging his then-fiancee out of an elevator in Atlantic City. He was charged with aggravated assault, but avoided trial by joining an intervention program. Inexplicably, Roger Goodell decided that two games was a long enough suspension for his misdeeds. If that wasn't enough, prior to the suspenion at a press conference, his now wife apologized for her role in what happened in Atlantic City.

Now today, furor has re-exploded thanks to TMZ releasing the video of what happened on the way into the elevator, but more importantly... in the elevator. Apparently, according to an official NFL statement, no one in the league saw this video until now. Fair warning: this video is pretty disturbing. Click on that link at your own risk.

Union talking about damb HGH when Ray Rice is playing football... Please. Get y'all priorities together...
— LeCharles Bentley (@LeCharlesBent65) September 8, 2014

2 games. Disturbing.
— TJ Lang (@TJLang70) September 8, 2014

2 games? I'm disgusted. This is not the example we want to leave for our youth.
— Garrett Gilkey (@gagilk73) September 8, 2014

Photo by Kenneth K. Lam (MCT)

I'm with the majority opinion that the 2-game suspension was way too light for the crime, and even Goodell thought that when he revamped the conduct policy to punish domestic violence cases more harshly. Unfortunately, as much as I'd like them to, the NFL can't go back and add games to the suspension. That becomes an ex post facto punishment, which is illegal. Yes, I know the NFL is not the court system, but the players' association would make that ex post facto argument, so the league knows better.

I was listening to Mike and Mike on my drive to the train station this morning, and they were talking about the release of this video. They agreed with the notion above, and suggested a Herm Edwards approach: make Ray Rice inactive. I'd love to see that. But will John Harbaugh do it?

Unfortunately, in the highest level of sports, integrity and character don't seem to matter all that much. If a guy can play, teams will take him, and use him. It's only when the bottom line or public image take a hit that anything gets done. And even then, a lot of times on field production will trump doing what's right.

I've been a married man for about two and a half months now. My wife and I have been together for five and a half years now. I would never even consider putting my hands on her, much less doing to her what Ray Rice did to Janay Rice. It's cowardly and disgusting. Ray Rice should be facing prison time for what he did. Instead, he has one more week before he can play football again.

For now, the NFL's hands are probably tied. But when he comes out of the tunnel in Cleveland (and let's be honest: he will, even though he shouldn't), I'm sure a lot of Browns fans will boo him. Heavily. And they should; he deserves it. But Ravens fans should do something to. Refuse to wear, or get rid of any Rice jerseys you have. Refuse to buy anything with his name or likeness on it, or if you want to go further, boycott stores that sell any of those items.

Photo uncredited

People probably already do that with Michael Vick because of his dogfighting past, but I don't want to see false equivalencies with that. Vick paid his debt to society and repented. He now seems to be an advocate against dogfighting, and as long as that remains true, he deserves the second chance he's gotten and has made the most of. If it comes to light that he went back to dogfighting, he deserves banishment from the league and prosecution to the fullest extent of the law. Ray Rice is different; he's not facing jail time now. He hasn't paid a debt to society in any form. And besides, Vick was let go by the Falcons after he was arrested. Rice, despite all the evidence, remains employed by the Ravens.

My last words are an open message to Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome. Do you want a man who had no problem spitting on, then punching his now wife, knocking her out, on your team? Do you want that man representing you and your organization not only on the field, but in the community? Do the right thing.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 2

Another week of college football is in the books. Everyone should have played at least one game, and a lot of teams have played two now. It's still way too early to be thinking about how to seed the playoffs, despite what some people want to do. But it's enough information now that I can start sharing some more of my numbers.

In last week's Playoff Points post, I explained basically how this metric works, so you can refer back to that one if need be. But after one week, everyone remained at zero playoff points, both in First and Second Degree forms. This week, some separation is starting to take place, but it's pretty miniscule.

Nonetheless, because I like this metric in terms of telling how good some teams are, I'm going to go by conference and take a look at the average number of wins in addition to the average number of both First Degree and Second Degree Playoff Points. The idea here is to determine with a little more accuracy which conferences are better than others. This will help when it comes time to determine playoff seeds if two teams are just about even based solely on their own resume.

Since I'm ranking three different things, I'll list each conference alphabetically, put in those averages and include how they rank among the 10 conferences. Independents will be included as their own "conference" for the purpose of these metrics. Just so you know what the abbreviations below mean, PP1 is First Degree Playoff Points, and PP2 is Second Degree Playoff Points.