The Dark Side of Sports, Part II

Photo uncredited

Wow, it's been crazy today.

Ozzie Newsome took the advice of my open note at the end of that post (...fine, he caved to collective peer pressure) and released Ray Rice. About an hour later, the NFL indefinitely suspended him.

Most of these issues I tackled in the above post, but to recap: the Ravens did the right thing... finally. The NFL also did the right thing... finally. Rice has no recourse with the Ravens, but the NFL Players Association will fight the NFL's decision. It's a second suspension for the same offense. I doubt it stands up. They may go for a middle ground; my coworker thinks that the suspension will ultimately be six games to equal the new system. If he can be reinstated at any point, I would hope NFL general managers realize they will be inviting heavy condemnation if they sign him. If he pays some sort of debt to society and truly repents, I'd be open to him returning, same as Michael Vick. But that isn't happening anytime soon.

Photo by Gene J. Puskar (AP)

Meanwhile, the NCAA decided that this afternoon would be the perfect time to pull a fast one and reinstate Penn State.

Honestly, I'm not sure what the rationale is behind this. What's clear is that the timing is terrible. They knew it would be a controversial decision, and saw a perfect smokescreen with Ray Rice. Fortunately, most of us are smart enough to see through that.

I'm just not sure where to cast my opinion on the decision itself. When the punishment first came down, I was wholeheartedly in support of it. But I need more information. Has the school fully taken steps to turn the corner from a dark part of its history?

@northsider89 time heals all wounds....go back and see how from top to bottom they hid the rape of boys. You'll remember .
— Imperial Intern (@Imperial_Intern) September 8, 2014

Penn State supporters argue that the penalty was unfairly punishing athletes who had nothing to do with what happened. But as much as I dislike the system, bowl games are a privilege, not a right. Officials high up sure seemed like they covered up heinous crimes to protect their football program, and their supposedly sainted head coach was in the middle of it all. The NCAA punished a program that placed football as a higher priority than lives, something I've repeatedly condemned.

So what's the rationale for lifting it now? Has the school done enough to try to atone for the damage caused? I don't have enough information to be the judge of that. Even so, I'm skeptical of this decision, especially given when it was announced. Because of that skepticism, I'm keeping Penn State ineligible for the Death to the BCS Playoffs unless there's enough out there to justify the decision.

The events of today are a great reminder to us all. Sports are great. They can bring people together in ways a lot of other things can't. But sometimes we get too engrossed in sport, and let it blind us to the things that really matter. Temper yourselves, and be careful not to fall into the trap.

The Dark Side of Sports

If you're a regular reader of COAS, or if you know me personally, you know I love sports. It's almost to a fault. I love playing them, watching them, writing about them... it's a big list. It's one of those things that definitely has its flaws and corruptions, but for many of us, we put it on the back burner and deal with it. Sometimes, we see things so heinous that tie to sports, that we are forced to confront the issue head on.

Photo from Getty Images

You've no doubt heard the story by now. Ravens running back Ray Rice made headlines back in February when video was leaked showing him dragging his then-fiancee out of an elevator in Atlantic City. He was charged with aggravated assault, but avoided trial by joining an intervention program. Inexplicably, Roger Goodell decided that two games was a long enough suspension for his misdeeds. If that wasn't enough, prior to the suspenion at a press conference, his now wife apologized for her role in what happened in Atlantic City.

Now today, furor has re-exploded thanks to TMZ releasing the video of what happened on the way into the elevator, but more importantly... in the elevator. Apparently, according to an official NFL statement, no one in the league saw this video until now. Fair warning: this video is pretty disturbing. Click on that link at your own risk.

Union talking about damb HGH when Ray Rice is playing football... Please. Get y'all priorities together...
— LeCharles Bentley (@LeCharlesBent65) September 8, 2014

2 games. Disturbing.
— TJ Lang (@TJLang70) September 8, 2014

2 games? I'm disgusted. This is not the example we want to leave for our youth.
— Garrett Gilkey (@gagilk73) September 8, 2014

Photo by Kenneth K. Lam (MCT)

I'm with the majority opinion that the 2-game suspension was way too light for the crime, and even Goodell thought that when he revamped the conduct policy to punish domestic violence cases more harshly. Unfortunately, as much as I'd like them to, the NFL can't go back and add games to the suspension. That becomes an ex post facto punishment, which is illegal. Yes, I know the NFL is not the court system, but the players' association would make that ex post facto argument, so the league knows better.

I was listening to Mike and Mike on my drive to the train station this morning, and they were talking about the release of this video. They agreed with the notion above, and suggested a Herm Edwards approach: make Ray Rice inactive. I'd love to see that. But will John Harbaugh do it?

Unfortunately, in the highest level of sports, integrity and character don't seem to matter all that much. If a guy can play, teams will take him, and use him. It's only when the bottom line or public image take a hit that anything gets done. And even then, a lot of times on field production will trump doing what's right.

I've been a married man for about two and a half months now. My wife and I have been together for five and a half years now. I would never even consider putting my hands on her, much less doing to her what Ray Rice did to Janay Rice. It's cowardly and disgusting. Ray Rice should be facing prison time for what he did. Instead, he has one more week before he can play football again.

For now, the NFL's hands are probably tied. But when he comes out of the tunnel in Cleveland (and let's be honest: he will, even though he shouldn't), I'm sure a lot of Browns fans will boo him. Heavily. And they should; he deserves it. But Ravens fans should do something to. Refuse to wear, or get rid of any Rice jerseys you have. Refuse to buy anything with his name or likeness on it, or if you want to go further, boycott stores that sell any of those items.

Photo uncredited

People probably already do that with Michael Vick because of his dogfighting past, but I don't want to see false equivalencies with that. Vick paid his debt to society and repented. He now seems to be an advocate against dogfighting, and as long as that remains true, he deserves the second chance he's gotten and has made the most of. If it comes to light that he went back to dogfighting, he deserves banishment from the league and prosecution to the fullest extent of the law. Ray Rice is different; he's not facing jail time now. He hasn't paid a debt to society in any form. And besides, Vick was let go by the Falcons after he was arrested. Rice, despite all the evidence, remains employed by the Ravens.

My last words are an open message to Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome. Do you want a man who had no problem spitting on, then punching his now wife, knocking her out, on your team? Do you want that man representing you and your organization not only on the field, but in the community? Do the right thing.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 2

Another week of college football is in the books. Everyone should have played at least one game, and a lot of teams have played two now. It's still way too early to be thinking about how to seed the playoffs, despite what some people want to do. But it's enough information now that I can start sharing some more of my numbers.

In last week's Playoff Points post, I explained basically how this metric works, so you can refer back to that one if need be. But after one week, everyone remained at zero playoff points, both in First and Second Degree forms. This week, some separation is starting to take place, but it's pretty miniscule.

Nonetheless, because I like this metric in terms of telling how good some teams are, I'm going to go by conference and take a look at the average number of wins in addition to the average number of both First Degree and Second Degree Playoff Points. The idea here is to determine with a little more accuracy which conferences are better than others. This will help when it comes time to determine playoff seeds if two teams are just about even based solely on their own resume.

Since I'm ranking three different things, I'll list each conference alphabetically, put in those averages and include how they rank among the 10 conferences. Independents will be included as their own "conference" for the purpose of these metrics. Just so you know what the abbreviations below mean, PP1 is First Degree Playoff Points, and PP2 is Second Degree Playoff Points.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 1

We're finally here! Tonight begins another campaign. 32 teams. Only one gets to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. And for the next five months, people will be guessing over 250 games in an effort to find out who will claim that trophy.

For the third year in a row, Confessions of a Sportscaster will be picking games against the spread as determined by ESPN.com's Pigskin Pick 'Em game. You can join probably up until kickoff tonight.

In addition to actually making those picks though, I like to rationalize them. It was done in partnership with another NFL blog last year, but this year it will be done entirely on COAS. I also have a new partner whose picks will be appearing alongside my own. Adam Quinn, my wife's cousin's husband, was a part of the contest last season on ESPN. Some time last winter (I think after the regular season ended), I had said something to him about possibly joining me in actually picking games on here, and he was excited to join in. Likewise, I'm excited to have him aboard. And he's a Bears fan, so it tempers the bias here a little bit.

You'll see both of our picks for each game in tandem, along with a short rationale for why we picked what we did. Sometimes this has a lot of football based knowledge. Other times, not so much. For the opening week, we agreed on 10 out of the 16 of results. Good luck to you, sir! Let's reveal the Week 1 picks!

NFC West Preview

Tomorrow night we begin! With just the one day left, I have only the NFC West left to preview. Some people argued that this division should have had three teams make the playoffs last year, but they only managed Seattle and San Francisco. This year, one wild card still remains, but who will get it?

With the season kicking off tomorrow night, you still have a little time to join in on the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. This is your last chance to join in, but it is free to join. It's also a lot of fun. I've enjoyed it a lot... though maybe it's had something to do with being able to crack numerous jokes. I already have a couple in mind, though more will show up as the season goes on.

But enough about that. Let's predict the NFC West.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks
2013: 13-3 (1st), won Super Bowl XLVIII
The defending champs come into the new season without a ton of lost personnel. Most of the defense returns, with the one major notable departure being Brandon Browner. Other than him, the Legion of Boom is still around. Super Bowl MVP Malcolm Smith might start at linebacker, and the defensive line is one of the best in football. On offense, Russell Wilson remains the best value in the league and doesn't need to be a world beater with the talent around him. Golden Tate is gone, but he still has Percy Harvin and Doug Baldwin to throw to, plus Marshawn Lynch to wreak havoc on the ground. There hasn't been a repeat champion in a decade, but the Seahawks could be the ones to break the streak.
2014 Prediction: 13-3

2. Arizona Cardinals
2013: 10-6 (3rd), missed playoffs
The Cardinals had an excellent 2013, but missed the playoffs because of the strength of the rest of the conference. The league's top run defense returns, and adds some pieces to bolster the pass defense. Adding Antonio Cromartie as your #2 corner across from Patrick Peterson will help, as will the return of Tyrann Mathieu. The question is if Carson Palmer can cut down on the turnovers (22 picks in 2013). Michael Floyd and Ted Ginn should be good pieces to take some pressure off of Larry Fitzgerald, while Andre Ellington will be the top running back this year. This year, they won't miss out.
2014 Prediction: 11-5, Wild Card

3. San Francisco 49ers
2013: 12-4 (2nd), lost in NFC Championship Game
Am I crazy? The team that has made three straight NFC title games won't make the playoffs? Colin Kaepernick has a ton of weapons to throw to, yet the Niners had the third fewest passing yards in 2013. There are ground weapons galore though too, with rookie Carlos Hyde backing up veteran Frank Gore. Problem is, there are some questions on the offensive line, and the defense is a question mark. NaVorro Bowman is out to start the year, and Aldon Smith is facing a lengthy suspension. The secondary has also lost a ton of pieces. All these things won't totally kill this talented team, but I think it torpedoes their playoff hopes significantly.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

4. St. Louis Rams
2013: 7-9 (4th), missed playoffs
The RGIII trade gave the Rams a ton of picks to work with, but it hasn't done much for their offense. Sam Bradford will miss the season, which means at least for now Shaun Hill is the Rams' 2014 quarterback. Zac Stacy and Tre Mason will make for a good 1-2 rushing punch, but the passing game will have issues. But you look at that defense... my goodness. The defensive line is probably better than Seattle's, and I really like the linebacking corps. It should help a secondary that I'm not totally convinced of, since quarterbacks will need to throw a little quicker than normal. I just don't know that they can score enough points to make a difference.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

Now that the whole NFC has been predicted, here's how the playoffs will unfold in my vision:

1. Seattle Seahawks: 13-3
2. Green Bay Packers: 11-5
3. New Orleans Saints: 11-5
4. Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6
5. Arizona Cardinals: 11-5
6. Chicago Bears: 10-6

Tomorrow the season starts, and since it's the beginning of a week, I'll have the Week 1 picks of the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. I have a new guest picker this year as well, and I'll introduce him tomorrow morning. Rest up, football fans: tomorrow night should be amazing!

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 2

Week 1 of the college football season is in the books! There were a few upsets, but for the most part, things went the way one would expect them to. It's way too early to even really think about the playoffs (yet, some "experts are already picking their four playoff teams for the College Football Playoff... come on, guys). I have no intention of looking at potential Death to the BCS Playoffs brackets for another several weeks. I will nonetheless continue to build on the metrics for those playoffs and keep you up to date on what's going on.

So in this week's look at the NCSS rankings, I'll update the cumulative scores of each conference and re-rank them. You'll see both this week's score and the total one, while I look over how well each conference scheduled (and call out teams that have FCS foes on their schedules). Please also note that a game was suspended over the weekend. A makeup date hasn't been announced, but for now, the NCSS scores from Week 1 have been updated to reflect the change.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 1

I'm starting a new weekly post in relation to the Death to the BCS Playoffs this season. Since the NCSS rankings do have a bit of a weakness to them, I want to more closely analyze the standings in this more important metric on a weekly basis after all the teams are done playing in a given week.

The first link above will take you to the guide for how playoff points work, but I'll expand on it here. I borrow a model similar to what the Illinois High School Association uses for its football playoffs. In the IHSA, you make the playoffs automatically if you win a minimum of 6 games, though if you win 5 you can sneak in if you have enough "Playoff points", which equal the total number of wins of all your scheduled opponents. I like the idea, but I'm going a step further. The IHSA includes combined wins of defeated opponents in the chart on their page, and that's the metric I use for "First Degree Playoff Points".

Obviously, the more games your team wins, the more playoff points you'll have, but they're worth more if you beat good teams. But how do we define "good teams"? That's why I added the "Second Degree Playoff Points" metric this season. Those are calculated by taking the average number of First Degree Playoff Points of the teams you beat. The average, however, will be determined out of the number of wins each team has. So for example, so we don't imbalance the difference between an eight-win team and an eleven-win team, the gross number of playoff points of the teams beat by our eight and eleven-win teams in question are divided by eight and eleven, respectively. This is to ensure that a ton of zeroes don't screw over the smaller teams. The Second Degree metric is used to see, on average, how good the teams you beat actually were.

Photo by Steven Branscombe (USA TODAY Sports)

One note to make though: because I condemn most FCS matchups (unless people lose to North Dakota State, which I think is hilarious, and so does Rodger Sherman at SBNation), wins over those schools add no playoff points to your resume, First or Second Degree. The idea is that you want to beat the best opposition possible. Of course, this could theoretically mean that if Iowa State runs the table from here on out, they'd get the Big 12 automatic bid and would look like a tank at 11-1, but I'd have to dock them somewhat for losing to NDSU.

So what I'll do in this post is go by conference and look at the average number of Playoff Points, starting with First Degree and then Second Degree. It may not mean a ton, but it helps rank the conferences a little better.