2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 2

Week 1 of the college football season is in the books! There were a few upsets, but for the most part, things went the way one would expect them to. It's way too early to even really think about the playoffs (yet, some "experts are already picking their four playoff teams for the College Football Playoff... come on, guys). I have no intention of looking at potential Death to the BCS Playoffs brackets for another several weeks. I will nonetheless continue to build on the metrics for those playoffs and keep you up to date on what's going on.

So in this week's look at the NCSS rankings, I'll update the cumulative scores of each conference and re-rank them. You'll see both this week's score and the total one, while I look over how well each conference scheduled (and call out teams that have FCS foes on their schedules). Please also note that a game was suspended over the weekend. A makeup date hasn't been announced, but for now, the NCSS scores from Week 1 have been updated to reflect the change.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 1

I'm starting a new weekly post in relation to the Death to the BCS Playoffs this season. Since the NCSS rankings do have a bit of a weakness to them, I want to more closely analyze the standings in this more important metric on a weekly basis after all the teams are done playing in a given week.

The first link above will take you to the guide for how playoff points work, but I'll expand on it here. I borrow a model similar to what the Illinois High School Association uses for its football playoffs. In the IHSA, you make the playoffs automatically if you win a minimum of 6 games, though if you win 5 you can sneak in if you have enough "Playoff points", which equal the total number of wins of all your scheduled opponents. I like the idea, but I'm going a step further. The IHSA includes combined wins of defeated opponents in the chart on their page, and that's the metric I use for "First Degree Playoff Points".

Obviously, the more games your team wins, the more playoff points you'll have, but they're worth more if you beat good teams. But how do we define "good teams"? That's why I added the "Second Degree Playoff Points" metric this season. Those are calculated by taking the average number of First Degree Playoff Points of the teams you beat. The average, however, will be determined out of the number of wins each team has. So for example, so we don't imbalance the difference between an eight-win team and an eleven-win team, the gross number of playoff points of the teams beat by our eight and eleven-win teams in question are divided by eight and eleven, respectively. This is to ensure that a ton of zeroes don't screw over the smaller teams. The Second Degree metric is used to see, on average, how good the teams you beat actually were.

Photo by Steven Branscombe (USA TODAY Sports)

One note to make though: because I condemn most FCS matchups (unless people lose to North Dakota State, which I think is hilarious, and so does Rodger Sherman at SBNation), wins over those schools add no playoff points to your resume, First or Second Degree. The idea is that you want to beat the best opposition possible. Of course, this could theoretically mean that if Iowa State runs the table from here on out, they'd get the Big 12 automatic bid and would look like a tank at 11-1, but I'd have to dock them somewhat for losing to NDSU.

So what I'll do in this post is go by conference and look at the average number of Playoff Points, starting with First Degree and then Second Degree. It may not mean a ton, but it helps rank the conferences a little better.

AFC West Preview

Everyone has their fourth and final preseason game in the books, so this is the last Sunday for a while without NFL football. The excitement is getting close. With two divisions left to go, each conference still has a wild card that I haven't accounted for, which means there's one more on the docket today.

With just a few days left, you still have time to join in on the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. It's free to join with an ESPN account (also free), and you can pick games against the spread with me and see how you can compare with someone who's happened to be above .500 the last two seasons.

Advertisement out of the way, let's get to the preview. Today, the AFC West.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC East, NFC West

1. Denver Broncos
2013: 13-3 (1st), lost Super Bowl XLVIII
The Broncos broke records upon records last year, with Peyton Manning throwing for 55 touchdowns. There will be some regression to the mean this season, especially with Wes Welker missing at least part of the season with a concussion. Manning still has Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to throw to though, plus a decent running game with Montee Ball. I question this defense a bit though. Adding Aqib Talib was a good move for the secondary, but I'm not sure how good Rahim Moore will be. The defection of DeMarcus Ware is a big move though too, especially when you have him playing with Von Miller. But really, as long as Peyton is around, the Broncos are the team to beat.
2014 Prediction: 12-4

2. San Diego Chargers
2013: 9-7 (3rd), lost in AFC Divisional Round
The power of Phillip Rivers' bolo tie showed up late in the season as the Bolts won their final four games to sneak into the playoffs, and even picked up a playoff win. Early last year, everyone (me included) were down on Rivers. Now, he's worked his way back into the upper tiers of quarterbacks.  It helps that he has some solid weapons again this year with wideouts like Keenan Allen, and Antonio Gates is a veteran presence in the middle of the field. Their running game should be good too with the depth they have. I'm not sure what to make of the defense after they gave up the fourth-most passing yards in 2013. The third place schedule should help a bit though.
2014 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Kansas City Chiefs
2013: 11-5 (2nd), lost in AFC Wild Card Round
This team was kind of a paper tiger last year; after starting 9-0, they closed the year with a 2-6 mark, including that playoff collapse at Indy. If there's some health on this roster the Chiefs will be in contention for a playoff spot, but I'm not super sold on the depth on defense. Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe need to stay healthy. Meanwhile on offense, Dwayne Bowe had a down year again. Is it Alex Smith, or is he past his prime? And just how good is Alex Smith? With Andy Reid at the helm, they can probably do some damage on offense, especially with Jamaal Charles. I just think last year had some flukiness to it.
2014 Prediction: 8-8

4. Oakland Raiders
2013: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
The Raiders got next to nothing from the quarterback spot last year. It's a question this year of which Matt Schaub they got: 2012 or 2013. Rookie Derek Carr could take over if it's the latter. The ground game is intriguing this year with the addition of Maurice Jones-Drew to back up Darren McFadden, but in the air, will the Curse of Leaving Aaron Rodgers hurt James Jones like it hurt Greg Jennings? On defense, Khalil Mack will eventually be a big part of this defense, but a lot of the rest looks like veteran retreads (Nick Roach, Charles Woodson and Justin Tuck to name three). Probably not a good year for the silver and black yet again.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

With the AFC done, here's a look at how I would seed the playoffs.

1. Denver Broncos: 12-4
2. Indianapolis Colts: 11-5
3. New England Patriots: 10-6
4. Cincinnati Bengals: 10-6
5. Baltimore Ravens: 9-7
6. San Diego Chargers: 9-7

Labor Day is tomorrow, but I still have some football posts to do. However, I'm taking a couple day break from the NFL to go back to covering college football. Tomorrow I look at the games from Week 1, then Tuesday will be coverage of the Week 2 schedule. Wednesday I will have my final division preview with the home of the defending champs.

NFC North Preview

This is one that I and probably most of the readership was looking forward to. Seeing as I work in Chicago and live in the western suburbs, a lot of my readers are probably here, though I know this blog randomly gets reads from around the world (a lot from Russia for some reason). Today, we look to see if the oldest and greatest NFL rivalry is tilted the other way.

In the meantime, I'm still taking entries for the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. I'll have another Bears fan picking games here on COAS with me to provide some semblance of balance, but you can compete against us at the link above. It's free to sign up and join, and you can prove me wrong dozens of times over!

With that out of the way, here's how I see the NFC North unfolding.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC South, AFC East

1. Green Bay Packers
2013: 8-7-1 (1st), lost in NFC Wild Card Round
For years, the Packers have had to deal with a ton of major guys missing time due to injury... and yet they've continued to find ways to make the playoffs. Last year the bigger deal was a horrible defense. BJ Raji is already out for the year with a torn bicep, so they'll need their youth to step up. Tramon Williams and Sam Shields need to have bounceback years at corner, but the big hole last year was at safety. Moving Micah Hyde helps, and I was excited to see Ted Thompson draft Ha Ha Clinton-Dix to help out. On offense, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are a good 1-2 punch, with a lot of youth behind them. Rookie of the year Eddie Lacy is back, as is James Starks. Oh, and that Aaron Rodgers guy. He's pretty good, I guess. As long as he's healthy, the Packers will be fine.
2014 Prediction: 11-5

2. Chicago Bears
2013: 8-8 (2nd), missed playoffs
When I was growing up, the Bears were about good, if not great, defense and horrible offense. That script has flipped. The Bears have arguably the best 1-2 receiver punch in the league in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. They have a very good tight end in Martellus Bennett. Matt Forte is one of the best complete backs in the league. The question mark is Jay Cutler. People are talking about him as an MVP candidate, but he needs to be smarter with the ball. The big question mark here though is defense. Julius Peppers defected to Green Bay, but the Bears replaced him with Jared Allen. He lines up opposite Lamarr Houston, so there's a retooled D-line. If Tim Jennings and Peanut Tillman do Tim Jennings and Peanut Tillman things again this year, the Bears could steal the division.
2014 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card

3. Detroit Lions
2013: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
Reggie Bush was a godsend for this offense last year. He topped 1000 yards and helped balance things out so Matthew Stafford could keep throwing bombs to Megatron. Golden Tate is a good counterpart to him, and there's a lot of talent at tight end. They'll light up some scoreboards. Unfortunately for them, their opponents will probably also light up some scoreboards. I really don't think the secondary improved, and up front, Nick Fairley showed up to training camp overweight. They'll need to win a lot of 35-31 type games to have a shot at the postseason.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

4. Minnesota Vikings
2013: 5-10-1 (4th), missed playoffs
Minnesota is trying its hand at another first round quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater, but he won't see the field right away. Instead Matt Cassel gets to show what he can do. I'm not totally sold on him though through no fault of his own; his weapons are the same as last year. Making Norv Turner the offensive coordinator should help though, as it unleashes Adrian Peterson in the passing game. Could be deadly. Some of the defensive line depth is gone now (there's no "Williams" at tackle anymore), and I'm not impressed with the secondary. Captain Munnerlyn is a decent addition, but wasn't a world beater with Carolina. The Vikes need more weapons and defensive help before they can compete with the aerial assaults this division can launch.
2014 Prediction: 6-10

Two wild cards are in, two more remain. Tomorrow I'll head out west for the second-to-last preview before the season starts. That's on Thursday! We're almost there!

AFC North Preview

Slowly but surely, we've been working our way around the country. Half the league is done, and we have yet to come across any wild cards. Playing the odds, you'll probably see one today, right? Read on to find out.

Because I have no shame, I'd like to once again invite you readers to join in on picking games against the spread with me. ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em is free, and you can join the COAS group to see how well you can do picking games against me. After all, I can be an idiot sometimes.

But for now, let's get to today's preview. Today, we take a look at the AFC North.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC South

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2013: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Wild Card Round
While I think he's a good quarterback, I don't understand why the Bengals gave Andy Dalton a 9 figure deal. He leads a good offense though; there's a solid two-pronged rushing attack of Giovani Bernard and the Law Firm, and AJ Green is a legitimate #1 receiver. On defense, the front seven is solid, and while I'm not as high on the secondary as I am that front unit, they allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards in the league last year. That has to count for something. They're good enough to make the playoffs again. I'm just not sold on what happens when they get there.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. Baltimore Ravens
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
The Ravens are one of 15 defending Super Bowl champs to miss the playoffs in their title defense year. A down year offensively didn't help (the Ravens were 18th in passing and 30th in rushing last year), and missing Ray Rice for the first two games for being a horrible fiancé during the offseason hurts them too (it should hurt them more than just two games, but that's another story). Joe Flacco gets another weapon this year in Steve Smith, which should help the passing game somewhat. The wheels didn't fall off too bad on defense last year either, and the unit they have isn't too shabby. Drafting CJ Mosley out of Alabama was a good pick in the first, and if he can live up to the standard of Ray Lewis, the Ravens should be in the hunt again this year.
2014 Prediction: 9-7, Wild Card

3. Cleveland Browns
2013: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
Call me crazy, but this defense should be good. Joe Haden is like Nnamdi Asomugha was during his Oakland days, and adding Justin Gilbert to play opposite him makes for a pretty darn good corner tandem. It's the offense that gives me pause. Miles Austin is pretty much the #1 receiver by default since Josh Gordon is done for the year due to suspension. The running game isn't good unless Ben Tate turns into a sleeper, and I'm not sure what to make at quarterback. Brian Hoyer was decent for stretches last year, but if he struggles, Johnny Manziel waits in the wings. (Honestly, I think he's overrated. Will probably become an average starter someday, but not this year).
2014 Prediction: 6-10

4. Pittsburgh Steelers
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
This is probably the biggest "Huh?" that I'm calling for this season., but I think the recent news about top two running backs LeGarrette Blount and Le'veon Bell facing possible suspensions really hurts. Even with Big Ben leading the offense, I'm not sold on their receivers either. There are some interesting names on defense, like first round pick Ryan Shazier, but Troy Polamalu isn't getting any younger. This might be a stretch, but I have a hunch it's going to be a down year for the black and gold.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

There's one wild card, which means the other is coming from the AFC West. If you're looking for a football fix tomorrow before the college games start, I can oblige, especially for my local readers. The NFC North predictions will be up tomorrow! Will they be able to sneak two teams into the playoffs? Check back in the morning and find out!

NFC East Preview

We're just a week away now! The NFL season is on the horizon, and I have five more divisions to get to. Today I'm switching back over to the NFC but staying out on the East Coast... you know, other than Dallas.

With a week to go, there is still time to get in on the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Follow the provided link to go to the group page and sign up. It's free to play, and you have an opportunity to make me look like a complete idiot. Everyone wins.

With that out of the way, let's take a look at how the NFC East might unfold.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC West, AFC South

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2013: 10-6 (1st), lost in NFC Wild Card Round
Not the easiest schedule in the world for second year coach Chip Kelly. He has the first place teams in the NFC plus the NFC West. Even with that, there's no reason to think this offense still can't blur their way down the field. They were a top-10 passing team and the top rushing attack in 2013. Those numbers will probably drop a bit with Desean Jackson departed for Washington. Shady McCoy will still probably put up huge numbers though. The biggest problem though remains in that this defense couldn't stop a nosebleed last year. They'll have to rely on winning shootouts. Fortunately for them, that's something they can do.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. Dallas Cowboys
2013: 8-8 (2nd), missed playoffs
So, other than Jerry Jones turning into Uncle Creepy... this was more of the same old, same old from Arlington. The cap situation is a mess, the team itself is a mess... and yet somehow, despite my grandfather-in-law's lack of faith in this team (he lives in the Dallas area), they'll be in position to make the playoffs in the final week before blowing it in unbelievable fashion. Tony Romo will continue to put up numbers, especially as long as Jason Witten and Dez Bryant are healthy. Problem is, this defense... oh boy. We might see a lot of games like last year's shootout with Denver.
2014 Prediction: 8-8

3. Washington Redskins
2013: 3-13 (4th), missed playoffs
With the benefit of a (hopefully) healthy RG3 and a last place schedule, the Redskins should be on the way back up this season. Having Desean Jackson defect helps a lot too. Offensively, between the passing game and the Alfred Morris/Roy Helu running back tandem, they'll be fine. It's the defense that's concerning, much like the rest of the division. Picking up Ryan Clark is a pretty good addition to a secondary that will need the help, given Brandon Meriweather is being a thug again. As long as Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan get a decent pass rush, the Skins can be in contention again this year.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

4. New York Giants
2013: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
The G-Men had an off year last year, especially Eli. I doubt he'll have an 18/27 touchdown to pick ration again. It'll be interesting to see though if Rueben Randle can become a competent #2 receiver across from Victor Cruz though. I really don't know what to expect on the ground though; Rashad Jennings was okay as part of a tandem last year, but who backs him up? On defense, getting Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie helps shore up the secondary, but can the Giants get the pass rush they've gotten during their two recent Super Bowl runs? If not, it could be a long year in the Meadowlands.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

And with that, we're at the halfway mark. And so far, no wild cards have shown up. You can check back tomorrow to see if one is present in the AFC North.

AFC East Preview

We're back from the distractions! With Week 1 of the college football schedule numbers out of the way, I can return to NFL-related posting.

Today we head out to the East Coast and look at the AFC teams out there. It's all but been a one team division since the last expansion, but will there really be any difference this year?

Random aside before we begin: I'm still taking entries for another week in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em competition. Want to pick games against the spread with me and a guest picker on a weekly basis? Follow the link above to join for free!

All right, enough shameless plugs. Let's get to it.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC West, NFC North

1. New England Patriots
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Championship Game
As long as Tom Brady remains at quarterback for New England, the Pats will be the favorites in the division. The big question remains about their weapons though. When your best two wideouts are Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola, you have to be slightly concerned, especially when Rob Gronkowski is still a question mark in terms of health. On defense, the Pats might finally have their stoppers at cornerback after signing Brandon Browner and picking up Darelle Revis. He may not be what we was four years ago, but Revis should be a big help to a middle-of-the-pack back end from last year.
2014 Prediction: 10-6

2. New York Jets
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Surprise, surprise: the big thing we heard out of Jets camp is big talk. It's what the Jets are best at. It only makes sense then that they picked up Chris Johnson in the offseason, though whether he can regain his form from his heyday remains to be seen. On the other side of the ball, linebacker Calvin Pace called this defense the best in the NFL. Um... no. There's definitely some good young talent in Dee Milliner and Calvin Pryor in the secondary. I'm not totally sold on the rest though. This isn't a bad team like they were towards the end of the Mark Sanchez era. Geno Smith needs to markedly improve from his rookie campaign though if the Jets want to compete.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

3. Miami Dolphins
2013: 8-8 (T-2nd), missed playoffs
Really, I'm not sure how last year could have gone worse for the 'Fins. They had the huge controversy with Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin; now both men are gone. Mike Wallace struggled in his first year in Miami, and will need to have a better year if the Dolphins want to compete. The defense is all right, and they added a decent safety in Louis Delmas, but the biggest what-if for Miami is Ryan Tannehill. He's been average in his first couple years, and needs to make a leap if they want a shot at the playoffs.
2014 Prediction: 6-10

4. Buffalo Bills
2013: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
EJ Manuel is in Year Two, and hopefully for the Bills is more prepared this season. He has a fun new toy to work with in first round pick Sammy Watkins. This might mean some serious passing yardage this year, we'll have to see. On defense Jairus Byrd is gone, and now there's something of a void in the middle of the field. The front seven isn't terrible though, depending on how well Mario Williams plays this season. It'll be a rough year I think though, as Manuel continues to go through some growing pains.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

I'll be back at it tomorrow as we switch conferences and go to arguably the weakest division in football in the NFC East. Also, I get to make fun of Jerry Jones again. Good times.