2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 1

We're here! The college football season officially kicks off tomorrow night, and with that, the preparations for the playoffs begin! You can read up on how the playoffs will be set up at the introductory post here. But basically, every Tuesday will be the kickoff of a new week of the season, so every Tuesday I will go through the schedule for the upcoming week and break it down for the NCSS ranking.

While it's imperfect, basically either going on the road or playing a "Power conference" opponent gets you more points, while teams are penalized for cupcake games (even though I understand their purpose, as far as your strength of schedule goes, you deserve a hit for it). What I do in this post is take the average score for each conference on a week by week basis (rounded to the nearest hundredth for ease), with some specifics about what teams are doing. On the whole, the independents will obviously have the highest scores, followed by teams that have more non-conference games (likely, the SEC with its 8 game conference slates will have higher scores than the Big XII teams, with their 9 game conference slates), so it's a flawed system in some ways. But it can help determine the strength of the part of the schedule teams can control. Let's take a look at our opening slate.

NFC South Preview

We're back at it this morning, a little earlier since I'm back at the office. I'm up against the clock, so I'm working to get all of my NFL previews up in time for the season to start in 10 days. With the college season starting up this week, I have to get those posts in too, so I'll have a break from the NFL tomorrow before getting back to it on Wednesday.

I'm still taking people who want to pick games against the spread this NFL season in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em contest. Follow the link above if you want to join in. It's free, and you can see if you're smarter (or luckier, since a lot of this is a crapshoot) than someone who thinks he knows a ton about sports.

With that out of the way, let's get to the preview. Today, we look at the NFC South.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC North

1. New Orleans Saints
2013: 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Divisional Round
Somehow this defense gave up the second fewest passing yards per game in the league last season, and they arguably only got better, adding Jairus Byrd at safety and getting a little veteran depth with Champ Bailey at corner. They'll be good again this year probably, but the bigger threat is obviously this offense. A list of the best receivers in the NFL likely won't have Marques Colston, Kenny Stills or Robert Meachem too close to the top, the fact that they play with Drew Brees elevates them another level. Overall, this is a division that always seems to avoid repeat winners, so I'm picking the Saints to reclaim their throne this year.
2014 Prediction: 11-5

2. Carolina Panthers
2013: 12-4 (1st), lost in NFC Divisional Round
This team had a reversal of fortune in close games thanks to the timely arrival of Riverboat Ron. I figure some regression to the mean will happen this year. The defense remains solid, especially with Luke Kuechly at the center of it all. The problem here this year though will likely be on offense. Deangelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart aren't getting any younger, and as much as Cam Newton is turning into a really good quarterback, he really doesn't have anyone to throw to with Steve Smith's departure. This team will still be pretty good overall, but not like last year.
2014 Prediction: 9-7

3. Atlanta Falcons
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
The Falcons were arguably the unluckiest team in the NFL last year. Roddy White and Julio Jones combined for 104 catches and 14 missed games in 2013 (Jones missed the final 11 games of the year). Both should be back this season to help Matt Ryan out, but where he really needs help is the offensive line. Ryan got killed back there last year (sacked 44 times), and has already lost left tackle Sam Baker for the year. On the other side, this group was gashed by opposing running games all year. While they added some depth on defense this year, it's hard to say how much they'll improve. With better luck, they'll improve on a bad 2013.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2013: 4-12 (T-3rd), missed playoffs
Bad news this year: I can't make fun of Greg Schiano. Good news this year: I can make fun of Lovie Smith again. Either Josh McCown or Mike Glennon will start at quarterback, which should improve the worst passing attack of 2013. Defensively, this was an average squad last year. Lovie's presence will almost certainly improve that, though this squad isn't quite the caliber of what he had back during his tenure with the Bears. Tampa is on the way back up, but in this division, I'm not sure how good they'll be.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

Wednesday we head east... or a little north I guess, when you look at the geography. The AFC East is next, following tomorrow's look at the opening week of college football.

AFC South Preview

We're almost here! I've been kind of anxious for the NFL season to get underway for a while now. I've been wanting to get to preparing for another college football playoff, a process that starts Tuesday, but I'm just as excited for the pro level to begin.

Like in previous years, I'm going division by division to preview how I think teams are going to finish the 2014 campaign. Like last year, I'm ending with the division of the defending champ, so the NFC West will pop up next week.

Also this year, I will be renewing the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em, and I will be re-instituting picking with a guest writer. He's been excited to join in on this since during the season last year, and I'm excited to have him.

So without further ado, let's dive into the previews, starting with the AFC South.

Common opponents: AFC North, NFC East

1.  Indianapolis Colts
2013: 11-5 (1st), lost in AFC Divisional Round
The schedule gets tougher for this year's Colts after they reclaimed ownership of the division last year. To me for this year, the bigger issue is the offensive line, and how well they do protecting third-year star Andrew Luck. Luck has good weapons at receiver again this year, but I wonder about his running game too. Will Trent Richardson bounce back from an awful year last year? And what about the defense? They've gotten away with it the past couple years in terms of getting to the postseason, but will they hold up against the attacks of teams like Philly, Denver and New England? I think given their overall schedule, they'll be fine.
2014 Prediction: 11-5

2. Houston Texans
2013: 2-14 (4th), missed playoffs
One of the biggest goofs I made last year? Picking the Texans to repeat as division champs. For whatever reason, Matt Schaub turned into a pick-6 machine and Houston couldn't really stop anything. They shored up their defense in the offseason, including drafting Jadeveon Clowney to line up opposite JJ Watt, which is terrifying. Facing a last place schedule, they have some very winnable games. Bill O'Brien proved he's a good coach during his stint at Penn State. But can he get Ryan Fitzpatrick back to the level he was at a few years ago when he got that big contract from Buffalo? If he does, the Texans might contend for a wild card.
2014 Prediction: 7-9

3. Tennessee Titans
2013: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
The keys to the Titan offense have officially been passed to Jake Locker. Looking at his stats, he's actually been a bit better than I would have thought. They made a change at running back too, with Shonn Greene taking over the starting running back role with the departure of Chris Johnson. I'm not too sold on their receiving corps, with Nate Washington as the #1 guy. Defensively, I'm not really sold on these guys either. And Tennessee isn't playing New England, so the Bernard Karmell Pollard curse isn't a factor.
2014 Prediction: 5-11

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
2013: 4-12 (3rd), missed playoffs
This team was bad last year (remember, they were 27.5 point dogs at Denver last year). The advantage of being so bad? They potentially have their franchise quarterback now in Blake Bortles, though we said that about Blaine Gabbert too. Problem is, their starting running back is Toby Gerhart, though he was a good backup to Adrian Peterson in Minnesota. Meanwhile, this is a bad defense that really didn't do a lot to improve. They're on the right track as long as Bortles develops well, but they're not going anywhere this year.
2014 Prediction: 4-12

I'm back to work tomorrow, and I'll switch conferences over to the NFC South.

Dead BCS, Living Better Playoff

In 2012, the yearnings of fans finally broke through the corrupt umbrella of the big conference commissioners: the FBS level schools finally agreed to put an end to the travesty known as the BCS and adopt a playoff to determine a champion. So for the first time, biased and uninformed polls as well as corrupt computer formulas won't decide a paper champion in college football. This year, a selection committee picks the four teams that will get to play for a title. It's a step in the right direction... but it's not quite enough.

This is the new playoff. It's a start.

My concern remains that the committee will be biased towards the big conferences, even if a mid major runs the table. This is why I continue to advocate for the system created by Dan Wetzel, Josh Peter, and Jeff Passan in Death to the BCS. Though with realignment, we have 10 conferences instead of 11, I still like the idea of a 16 team tournament where in reality, every team has a chance to play for a title (win your conference, and you're automatically in). The odds of, say, the Sun Belt champion going on the road to Tuscaloosa or some other traditional football power source and winning is very slim, but they at least have a shot at it, unlike how the old system (and even the current system) plays out.

So for the fourth year in a row (I guess technically third, since the first year had a belated test run with the system), I will be building a playoff using the Wetzel, Peter and Passan system. Sixteen teams enter: the ten conference champions all get in automatically, with the rest of the field being filled out by either independents who ran the table, or any teams that saw some stumbling blocks on their road but still played excellent football for three months. And as I've gotten more experience following regular season results to build a field, I've been able to advance my tools to help me build said field.

The teams that make the tournament are seeded by a selection committee (read: me, though contact me if you want to be a part of the committee to give me another set of eyes and another brain to help decide these things) in an evolving process. The first time was a very organic "Who had the best records, and of them, who had the best wins and/or the least egregious losses?" process. This has since led to my building new metrics to help me out, or borrowing them from Illinois' high school football system. I've made some tweaks to the system this year.

Game Notes: Quad Cities River Bandits @ Kane County Cougars (8/14/14)

Final Score

Cougars 4, River Bandits 1

Game Summary

It was a relatively quick game that started as a pitchers duel. The River Bandits (60-61) had a few early chances, but couldn't push a run across. Meanwhile, the Cougars (77-45) didn't see a base runner until the 5th. Quad Cities manufactured a run in the 6th and with their pitching, it seemed like a good chance of holding up. But the Kane County bats came to life in the 8th when they scored their 4 runs and shut the door in the 9th to lock down the sweep.

Pitchers of Record
W: Jasvir Rakkar (1-0)- 2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB. The Canadian prospect came in in the 8th to maintain the status quo, and did well. Gave up all fly ball outs, but hey, whatever works.
L: Troy Scribner (0-2)- 7.1 IP, 3 R (3 ER), 5 H, 10 K. The undrafted 23-year-old looked really good, retiring the first 14 men he faced. (Full confession: I alluded to the perfect game to my wife trying not to jinx it. My bad.) He had no problems up until the 8th, when the first four guys all hit the ball pretty hard... Especially the last guy he faced.

Key Stats

• Trey Martin (KC)- 1-3, HR (2), 3 RBI. I was up getting Dippin Dots during the rally. A leadoff double was followed by a line out and a base hit to set the stage for what turned out to be Martin's game-winner. I could tell purely by sound it was hit well, but I had to rely on other fans to know that it was gone, just over the wall by the scoreboard.
• Duane Underwood (KC)- 5 IP, 0 R, 3 H, 3 BB, 4 K. The Cougar starter only lasted 5 because of a fairly high pitch count. After a perfect first inning, he gave up a single and a walk to start the second inning. A groundout moved the runners over, but a great play at first nailed the runner going home for the second out and he escaped. In the third, the River Bandits loaded the bases with one out but Underwood struck out the next two guys. Then in the 4th after giving up a leadoff single, catcher Victor Caratini threw out the runner trying to steal. Underwood then walked the next batter before inducing an inning-ending double play.
• James Ramsay (QC)- 1-5, 1B, 2 SB. The Astro's 2013 7th round pick hit the ball really well last night. He opened the game with a rocket the opposite way that Shawon Dunston, Jr. made a great catch at the wall on. He singled with one out in the third, stole second ahead of a Bobby Boyd walk, then swiped third as part of a double steal. He would advance no further. Keep an eye on this guy though; he's got 28 steals on the season. In just over a full season's worth of games, he's only hitting .243 between short-season A-ball and the Midwest League, but he's got a .336 on base percentage and 35 steals in 46 attempts.

Final Thoughts
Growing up, heading out to Geneva to catch a Cougars game was always a treat. After a few year hiatus, it was good to get back for an amazing game last year. I'd wanted to bring Kristen along for a game out here, so we went with my dad and Logan. I think Kristen mainly came for the food (there were funnel cakes right behind our seats), but overall I think she had a pretty good time. As for the game, the Cougars have had some magic at home this season, and it showed last night as they came from behind late to rally and win. They've already locked up a playoff berth after winning the Midwest League Western Division First Half title, but they've just kept rolling, and are in first place in the second half too. Maybe we'll see a 2014 Midwest League Championship for this amazing Minor League program.

An Early Look at NCC Basketball

I know, it's July, and basketball isn't really a factor for another few months, what with baseball still in full swing and football coming up very soon. But yesterday, the North Central Athletic Department released the schedules for both the men's and women's teams. You can view those schedules for yourself at the links provided, but I wanted to look over the key home dates on the schedule even though we're still four months out.

1. Saturday, November 15: WBK vs Albion. This one puzzles me. Thanksgiving is kind of late again this year, so the Tip Off Tournament isn't until the following weekend. It's not the first time they've played a game before the tourney (they opened with a loss at Dominican University in the 11-12 campaign), but it's not a usual thing either.
2. Friday, November 21 and Saturday, November 22: Chicago Marriott Naperville Tip Off Tournament. Two days. Eight games. Probably a good 10-11 hours a day and 8 bottles of Gatorade over both days to sustain my voice. I've had fond memories of the last two tournaments, between the epic Hope-College of Faith battle in 2012 and last year's epic opening game for the women against Ripon College. Like in prior years, the women's bracket is unknown (and probably won't be known until maybe October), but most of the men's field is known, since North Central has predetermined matchups. They get Trinity International University on Friday as a tuneup for the biggest game at Merner since the one that decided the fate of the universe a few years back: a date with defending national champion Wisconsin-Whitewater.
3. Tuesday, November 25: MBK vs Aurora. I like this rivalry. I'd like it more if my sister-in-law who goes to AU gave a crap about sports because then I could engage in unnecessary trash talk, but whatever. Always a fun date. Strangely, the women's team doesn't have Aurora on the docket this year. Then again, the men don't play Benedictine, so maybe it evens out (the women head to Lisle on November 26).
4. Saturday, January 3: WBK/MBK vs Illinois Wesleyan. Wesleyan is one of the bigger rivals in the CCIW for me, and I think for most who bleed Cardinal red. While I'm not sure what to make of the men's team going into this year, the women's game is going to be fun. The Titans lost just twice in CCIW last year, once at CCIW champ Carthage, and the other... at home to NCC! There's probably revenge in mind this year, while you have a prideful Cardinal team that matches up well with them. Great way to kick off the Gauntlet.
5. Wednesday, January 21: WBK vs Carthage. Welcoming the conference champ to your building makes for a big game. The fact that Carthage has (relatively) struggled here the last two years should make it a fun game. Also, I'm still mad about the push off by Stephanie Kuzmanic on what turned out to be the game-winning bucket last year.
6. Saturday, January 31: WBK/MBK vs Wheaton. It's not like I have an undying, seething hatred for every Wheaton Thunder team or anything. I missed out on the Wheaton games last year. I have no intent of missing them this time around. Beat Wheaton.
7. Saturday, February 21: WBK/MBK vs North Park. This marks the end of the regular season, which means this is Senior Night at Merner. This means bidding farewell to several seniors on the women's team who I've had the honor of announcing for for four years and watched unleash hell in the Murderous Press and from beyond the arc. It also means bidding farewell to a couple guys on the men's team I've gotten to watch in recent years. Always an emotional night.

It's too early to really do a preview, especially since I'm not 100 percent sure what Michelle Roof or Todd Raridon pulled off in the way of recruiting (though I do know Coach Roof seemed pretty pleased with the class she got to commit). As we get closer to the season, I'll do an actual preview and refer back to this guide.

Shifting the NBA Balance of Power

I've been on a writing hiatus for the past... four weeks or so, between spending two weeks in Hawaii, getting back into the swing of things at the office, and adjusting to life with the new Mrs. COAS. It's been an awesome few weeks. But things have been happening in the world of sports that I need to get to.

While none of the signings actually happened until I got back from Hawaii, the frenzy that was NBA free agency started while we were down there. I heard lots of rumors but wasn't really able to follow up on much of it. I had moments of hope that the Bulls would actually land one of the prime targets of the offseason, which went unrealized yet again. But there were exciting moments in the past week or so that have shifted the landscape of the league.

For almost my entire life, the balance of power in the NBA has been centered in the Western Conference. There have been a ton of juggernauts based in the East, but based on the number of quality teams, the West has long been stronger. I'd argue that now with a lot of the dust settled, the West is definitely stronger and holds the full balance of power. The defending champs reside in the West. Oklahoma City isn't going away any time soon. You have the Clippers within striking distance as well, and teams like Portland are on the rise. Houston, despite whiffing on all the major free agents, is still a team to worry about despite also losing Chandler Parsons. The odds of 2015's champion coming out of the West are pretty good.

What we did have in the last few years that we won't this upcoming season is a powerhouse in the East to serve as a counterbalance. With the breakup of Miami's "Big Three", the East has opened up significantly.

• Chicago Bulls: Geoffrey Clark over at Grabbing the Bull Horns has covered their major moves, including the signing of Pau Gasol and finally bringing over Nikola Mirotic. These moves combined with Derrick Rose coming back... again... hopefully not to get hurt again put the Bulls in a good position. If Rose is even 80 percent of the guy he was in 2011, look out. The fact that neither LeBron nor Carmelo decided to come to Chicago is kind of sad, but there's still some potential for improved offense this year.
• Cleveland Cavaliers: They got the top prize of the class to come back home. You add LeBron to a talented point guard in Kyrie Irving, plus rookie Andrew Wiggins, and some shooters like Mike Miller are on board. This team isn't as dangerous as LeBron's two title teams in Miami, but this is a young team with upside that, in adding the best player in the league, becomes a contender.
• Indiana Pacers: Two straight Eastern Conference Finals is nothing to sneeze at. But the Pacers seem to be on the downswing now, with Lance Stephenson leaving for Charlotte and the chemistry they had a couple years ago shot. Paul George is still a talented player, but unless Roy Hibbert returns to 2013 Roy Hibbert status, I'm not sure how much of a contender Indy is anymore.
• Miami Heat: Even without LeBron, you still have Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade (who is definitely getting older and his knees are a question mark), and they added a couple solid pieces in Luol Deng and Josh McRoberts. They're not as dangerous as they were the last four seasons, but this team can still make some noise both during the regular season and playoffs.
• Washington Wizards: They snuck into the playoffs last year and proceeded to run over a gassed Bulls team in the opening round. You add to that talent guys like Paul Pierce and lock up a talented big man in Marcin Gortat? These guys can contend in the East as well as long as John Wall and Bradley Beal continue their progress and Nene plays as well as he did against Chicago.

All of this stuff is big, but we're still waiting out the end of the Kevin Love Era in Minnesota (it's coming, probably not till next summer though). Otherwise, most of the big names have moved at this point. What I really enjoy at this point though: the fact that the Lakers will be irrelevant this year (an obscenely overpaid Kobe, rookie Julius Randle, Jeremy Lin, and a bunch of scrubs pretty much) makes me laugh. The whole Carmelo thing is kind of a mixed bag. I have joked for the past couple days, "Keep getting 'dem checks, Melo" with his decision to go back to New York for more money. In the grand scheme of things, it's his choice, and I don't blame him, because I'd be tempted by that amount of money. But if he was looking to win a title... he's not winning one in New York. I feel pretty safe guaranteeing that.

This might be the one season of basketball that I'm most looking forward to since LeBron went to Miami. Maybe it's also because Rose should be back and hopefully the Bulls can make some noise in the playoffs.