2014 NFL Tournament of Champions First Round: Larry Csonka Bracket

Hope you're having a wonderful Valentine's Day so far today. As my continued gift to you: a second batch of games for the NFL Tournament of Champions. The bye teams are pretty loaded in this bracket, but they get a week to prepare for the upcoming matchup.

Looking at teams, I almost named this bracket after Ray Lewis, since his two title teams with the Ravens were on here. Then after better thought, I felt the Dolphins of the early 70's deserved the namesake. That meant looking at Super Bowl MVP's, so I opted for Csonka. When you play for lone undefeated team (including playoffs) in Super Bowl history, you have to get some recognition, even if I think you're kind of a jerk for having a champagne celebration when the last undefeated team loses every year.

Neither of his squads plays today since they both were seeded in the top 16, but there are some compelling matchups anyway.  I think I'm more excited though for seeing my 3-seed Packers next week, and there's one more 70's Steelers squad on here.

The method of playing these games out will be like the one I did earlier this morning over in the Montana Bracket. All of these will be simulated best-of-three, with the "clinching" game being the official one. I will grab weather forecasts from each locale in an effort to make the game as realistic as possible for the sake of home field advantage. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's go.

2014 NFL Tournament of Champions First Round: Joe Montana Bracket

Okay, maybe my graphics skills need work... or maybe I didn't want to spend money and thus used Paint... but still. You get the idea.

It's time for me to begin another batch of craziness, only this batch will take me significantly less time than the NBA Tournament of Champions took. The fact that I'm only using 48 teams instead of 64 helps, but so does me not needing to run a best-of-seven series every time. Football is much easier in this regard.

Even with only needing a week for each round, that's still 32 games I need to get through in the span of the next two weeks, which is how long it took to get through one round of the NBA Tournament of Champions. As such, I decided it was easiest to break the tournament up into brackets again. I'm only using four brackets this time, but it will still work great in this regard.

I decided to name each bracket after the superstar that appears most in each. With all the Niners champs from the 80's in here, Joe Montana was the easy name for this one. Yet, he doesn't have the top seed and in fact will be playing in two of the three matchups that I'll simulate today. The seeds you see here are the overall rankings that I pulled from Pro Football Reference, and initial details about the tournament can be found on the preview post.

As a reminder, I'm going to do these simulations as a best-of-three, with the "clinching" game being the official result, and I'll try to tabulate stats as best I can. I will also try to get accurate weather forecasts for the areas as best as I can for these. All simulations for the tournament are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get started.

NFL Tournament of Champions Preview

My insanity knows no bounds. Well, maybe it does, since this project isn't as massive as the one from last year.

We're always looking to compare teams from today to legendary squads from the past. The sport is irrelevant. How do the Green Bay teams that won the first two Super Bowls compare with a team from today? Would those Cowboy and Niner teams of the 80's and 90's be as elite now as they were then? What if you send this year's champion X back to the hard-nosed 70's? This is a question I'm prepared to tackle (ha).

Like I did with the NBA last year, I'm going to run a Tournament of Champions for the NFL to decide who the best team of all time is. The stipulation to qualify is only that the teams in are Super Bowl winners. And since there are now 48 of them, a bracket actually makes sense. This is a little different than one that was run last year where each franchise had a representative and they played through a season. My argument here is that these 48 teams all ran through a gauntlet in their own times and cemented their place as legends already. If that means I exclude some of the all time great teams that could never win a title (looking at you, '07 Patriots), so be it.

Those of you who are mathematically inclined may note that with 48 teams, I can't run a straight up single elimination tournament like I did with the NBA. I need to grant byes. Sixteen of them, in fact. And for that, I need to fairly decide who to give them to. Ultimately, I turned to people who have already cranked out the math for me. Pro Football Reference has a fantastic database for just about everything one could ever want to know about the NFL. Fortunately, that includes Super Bowl history. Looking through each individual team page for their championship years, I can glean basic numbers like their records and overall scoring differential, but I then wanted to go a step further and use Expected Record, which uses those scoring differentials, and borrow PFR's "Simple Ranking System", which isn't perfect, nor is its creator clearly identified, but for the purposes of this tournament should do a fair job of sorting through these teams. The top 16 will be given automatic first round byes, while teams 17-48 will play an extra game. So without further ado, here's how the tournament will be set up.

Game Notes: Millikin University @ North Central College (2/6/14)

Final Score
Millikin 101, NCC 82

Game Summary
After a day's delay due to Millikin University closing on Wednesday, we saw the Cardinals (10-11, 3-7) take the lead on the opening possession, but couldn't press the advantage. Despite sloppy play by both teams, the Big Blue (9-11, 3-6) took an 8-7 lead with 16:40 to go, and, other than a tie at 26-all, never trailed again. They led by as many as 10 points late in the first half, but the Cardinals fought back to within as few as two points before going into the break trailing 47-43. They came out flat in the second half though, needing over three minutes to get on the board as Millikin rebuilt its lead. North Central again closed the gap, this time as close as 70-67 with about 10 minutes to go. The Big Blue woke up and went on another massive run from there though and put the game away within a few minutes, and got over the century mark as time expired.

Key Stats

• MIL: Outrebounded NCC 59-31 (28-8 in the first half). Look, North Central's system means that a lot of shots get put up. On the season, the Cardinals have been outrebounded on average by about 10 boards a game. But to get destroyed this badly on the boards is an alarming stat. While second chance points were even at 11 apiece, the Big Blue outscored North Central in the paint 80-24. Taking that kind of control down low will kill any team. And it kept the Cardinals from running down the other way for chances to work back into the game. After the game, Coach Roof brought up this as one of the big things she was very upset about regarding this game.
• NCC: 12-43 FG (4-22 3PT) in the 2nd half (27.9%). You're going to have bad games from time to time. I get it. But this was abysmal. A lot of these shots were open looks from deep, but there were an alarming number of missed layups as well. You have to take advantage of those. Considering these numbers, the Cardinals didn't deserve to win this game.
• Brittany Czaplicki (MIL): 11-15 FG, 3-7 FT; 25 pts, 8 reb (1 ofr), 5 ast, 3 blk, 2 stl. This is a great floor game. Heck, a great game period. 19 of her points came after halftime as she took over the game, though all five of her assists came in the first. She also hit the bucket at the buzzer that put Millikin over 100 points. The game was out of reach, and the shot clock was off, but she felt it appropriate to score one last time. I get the allure of wanting to score 100 points, but I felt that that last shot was in poor taste, and I definitely didn't appreciate the Big Blue swarming her and celebrating how they did at the end of the game. Maybe it was the frustration from a poorly played game by the Cardinals, but I found it bordering on classless.

North Central System Watch

• NCC 3PT: 11-38 (28.9%). This is definitely dragged down by the poor second half, but the Cardinals shot pretty well before the intermission (7-16). They went cold late; simple as that. Marion Boeck was the best from deep, going 3-5.
• MIL Turnovers: 38. This was a really, really ugly game, especially when you add North Central's 30 turnovers to the mix. The Cardinals did draw a handful of charges early, which helped these numbers, but a majority came off steals (23 in total). Lauren Hernandez and Maryssa Cladis each had four thefts to lead the way, while Bobbi Johns and Marion Boeck each had three. As a team, this Cardinals team is already the second-most prolific at stealing the ball in program history (last year's team has the program record with 442 steals; this year's team now has 358). Individually, Johns now needs just three steals to tie Carol Judkins for tenth-most in a single season in Cardinal history. Kim Wallner's record of 86 in a season is probably safe, at least for now. Her career record of 289 is probably also safe.

CCIW Watch
all games played on Wednesday

• @ Carthage (18-2, 9-0) 64, Wheaton (15-5, 6-4) 45
• Elmhurst (12-8, 4-5) 68, @ North Park (10-9, 3-5) 57
• Illinois Wesleyan (14-6, 8-1) 85, @ Augustana (5-16, 1-9) 71

Final Thoughts
I have a lot tonight. First and foremost though, my thoughts and prayers go out to Lauren Hernandez. Towards the end of the game, she fell and hurt her knee and had to leave the game. She couldn't put any weight on it, and left Merner tonight on crutches. I wished her well on my way out tonight, but I wouldn't be surprised if she's done for the rest of the season. This poses a problem for the Cardinals, as they're down to just two point guards now if that's the case. Hopefully she'll make a full recovery in due time, and be a key part of next year's team if nothing else.

On a lighter note, this was still an interesting game to announce, if for no other reason than the names on Millikin's roster are amazing. NCTV's Justin Zipser, an old friend from my North Central and WONC days, tweeted out a picture of Millikin's roster, complete with a much-needed pronunciation guide (pictured to the right). I don't have a full team of them, but Millikin's Yip Ypya is a unanimous selection to the All-Awesome Name To Announce All Stars. I even told Justin so during halftime.

As for the game itself... this was one the Cardinals needed to have, but the way they played, didn't deserve it. When the team came back onto the floor for second half warmups, Coach Roof was doing her best Manning Face impersonation. Talking to her after the game, all I'll say is that she was definitely pissed about how this one went down. This is a team North Central should have beaten, but played way too poor a game to have done so.

Unfortunately, this is it for me for the 2013-14 campaign. Three of North Central's final four games are on the road, and I have another commitment on Senior Night on the 15th. I felt bad telling Coach Roof I couldn't make it, but I'm planning on stopping by to see this team one last time before the season ends. Even with the underachievement this year and the fact that the Cardinals are all but eliminated from CCIW Tournament contention, this team is a lot of fun to announce for, and I'm going to miss this squad. I'll do a postseason wrap up once everything is in the books, which will be another couple weeks. Hopefully this team can end the year on something of a high note.

Super Bowl XLVIII Preview

Every August, 32 teams convene in different places around the country with a singular goal in mind: making the postseason field of 12 and win two or three games, depending on seeding, to make it to the biggest sporting event in America that should really be a national holiday. Today, two of those teams' dreams will be realized as they take the field in East Rutherford, New Jersey. But only one can come out on top.

This year's Super Bowl itself was mired in controversy months, if not years, ago, when the NFL decided to hold it in the metro New York area. Obviously, hosting in a northern city in general carries risks (but then again Dallas had a freak snowstorm three years ago, so location isn't everything) but holding it in an open air stadium up north caused a lot of bickering. Me, I liked the thought of playing a Super Bowl in the elements. Apparently though, the elements won't be much of a factor if at all. Say what you will about The Weather Channel, but their forecast is calling for a kickoff temperature in the mid-40s, dropping a bit as the game goes on, and a slight chance for some rain. Not what we usually see on Super Sunday, but a far cry from the doomsday some predicted.

I kept waiting for ESPN to run prop bet picks for the past two weeks, but it never materialized, so I'm bypassing that this year. Let's just stick to what's important: the game. Line for picking is taken from Vegas Insiders.

Game Notes: Carthage College @ North Central College (MBK: 2/1/14)

Final Score
Carthage 54, NCC 49

Game Summary
Filling in for the preoccupied Jim Godo, I was at the mic for the men's game as well. It was a very slow-starting game, with the Cardinals (10-10, 3-6) getting the first field goal two and a half minutes in, though the Redmen (14-6, 7-2) had picked up a free throw before that. The Cardinals had managed a couple decent leads for much of the first half, but the Redmen bounced right back and led by as many as seven. A late three by the Cardinals gave them a 28-27 lead to close out the first half. The Redmen came back out of the locker room strong though and retook the lead, building it up to as high as eight points with about ten minutes to go. The Cardinals came right back though and tied the game on a huge 3-point play with 3:17 left. Carthage took the lead back two possessions later and never looked back.

Key Stats

• NCC: 10-18 FT (55.6%). Must've been something in the water in Naperville tonight. The Cardinals aren't that great a free throw shooting team to begin with, especially in the cases of Landon Gamble (1-3 tonight, 62% on the season) and Jack Burchett (2-6 tonight, 50% on the season). These two big men are both very good at what they do, but their lack of free throw shooting is a major Achilles heel.
• Brandon Williams (NCC): 6-13 FG (1-4 3PT), 1-2 FT; 14 pts, 4 reb (3 ofr), 1 ast. Brandon had the best game probably for the Cardinals tonight. He looked really good early, hitting that go-ahead three right before the break. He had a few good looks at the basket all game long before fouling out near the end.
• Malcom Kelly (CAR): 5-9 FG (1-2 3PT), 5-7 FT; 16 pts, 7 reb (2 ofr), 1 stl. When I was preparing for this game, I had heard that Kelly was one of the best guys in the CCIW, and he showed it tonight. Even though he was a little shy of his average (just under 20 points a game), he found good shots when he needed them. The Cardinals had to keep a close eye on him at all times, and I thought they did a decent job, but the numbers are a testament to how good Kelly is.

CCIW Watch

• North Park (4-15, 1-7) @ Illinois Wesleyan (16-3, 6-2): POSTPONED.
• Elmhurst (12-7, 4-4) @ Millikin (7-12, 1-7): POSTPONED.
• Wheaton (14-6, 7-2) 76, @ Augustana (15-5, 5-4) 70

Final Thoughts
This is the first men's game I've gotten to see from beginning to end since the CCIW Championship Game in 2012, and we all know how that turned out. While I'm disappointed with how this game ended, it was nice to fill in for one of these again and watch this team, even if they're a year removed from glory.

Nostalgia aside... the officiating in this game was absolutely atrocious. Three Cardinals fouled out, including Gamble who on the play immediately before fouling out made a move where you could certainly argue for a foul. There was no consistency; the officials would call things at one end that they wouldn't at the other, or go from letting the guys play to suddenly whistling ticky-tack things away from the ball. It was absolutely horrible.

That said... this wasn't why the Cardinals lost. They struggled from the line, which didn't help, and they were outrebounded 37-27. The shots also stopped falling in the second half. The fact remains, this was a game the Cardinals probably should have won, but didn't. I keep wanting to come back to the refs with how bad they were tonight, but I can't pin this loss on them. It puts the Cardinals in a tough spot though, as it seems unlikely that they'll find their way back to the CCIW Tournament this year after 3 straight seasons as a top-two seed. Too many departures. Alas.

Game Notes: Carthage College @ North Central College (WBK: 2/1/14)

Final Score
Carthage 80, NCC 76

Game Summary
In a very back and forth game, neither team went on a major run. The Lady Reds (17-2, 8-0) drew first blood but couldn't breathe for any of the game, as the Cardinals (10-10, 3-6) stuck with them and took multiple one-possession leads. Carthage wouldn't go away and took a couple two-possession leads, but the Cardinals closed the half on a 7-2 run to go up four. They took their biggest lead of the game at seven just over a minute into the second frame. They led by a possession or two for a good ten minutes before the Lady Reds tied it at 65 with 8:12 left. Small leads were traded until less than a minute to go when the Cardinals tied it. But the Lady Reds got the go-ahead bucket with 17 seconds left and the Cardinals failed to answer at the other end. After all was said and done, the game was tied 13 separate times and saw 16 lead changes.

Key Stats

• NCC: 18-26 FT (69.2%). In a game where the largest lead was that 7-point North Central edge, hitting your freebies is a major factor. Percentage wise, this is around what the Cardinals have shot from the stripe for the season. But as the game wound down, they had chances. In the final three minutes, they had 6 free throws and only made three. Considering how the game ended... you tell me how big those free throws were.
• Maryssa Cladis (NCC): 4-9 FG (all 3PT), 2-2 FT; 14 pts, 3 reb (2 ofr), 3 ast, 1 stl. Looking at box scores, it was hard to pick one person to single out, but Maryssa had a good game again. She shot well from beyond the arc, but they all came in the first half. Hitting even one three later in the game might have changed how it ended.
• Stephanie Kuzmanic (CAR): 6-18 FG (0-3 3PT), 5-6 FT; 17 pts, 3 reb (1 ofr), 6 ast, 2 blk, 2 stl. I could have sworn she shot way better than 33 percent. It seemed like later in the game, she could find her way into the lane and just chuck something up, yet see it somehow go in. She's fun to watch, hence why she's the two time defending CCIW Player of the Week. Except on the last possession when she got the ball down on the baseline, pushed off a Cardinal defender, and hit a 14-footer that turned out to be the game winner.

North Central System Watch

• NCC 3PT: 12-43 (27.9%). This was a much more mortal night compared to recent games for the Cardinals. The starting five did nothing (a combined 2-22, with both makes by Kim Wilson). The shots were mostly decent looks, but there were a few very deep ones that I wonder about a bit. If they were closer to their season average, this is another one that turns into a Cardinal win.
• CAR Turnovers: 26. Despite Kuzmanic having a good game as seen above, she did turn it over seven times. That 26 was a high number, with a couple charges to the Cardinals' credit, and they also picked up a ten-second call for the second straight game. A majority of the turnovers were forced though, as the Cardinals had 16 steals. The leader: who else? Bobbi Johns paced the team with three, and four other Cardinals each had two.

CCIW Watch

• North Park (10-8, 3-4) @ Illinois Wesleyan (13-6, 7-1): POSTPONED.
• Elmhurst (11-8, 3-5) @ Millikin (8-11, 2-6): POSTPONED
• Wheaton (15-4, 6-3) 68, @ Augustana (5-15, 1-8) 63

Final Thoughts
I've seen some tough losses in my time working for North Central. The North Park game from last year is still the worst to me. This one is close though. I talked to Coach Roof after the game, and she said she was really disappointed in how this one ended. It's a game the Cardinals should have won on multiple fronts. If they hit more free throws toward the end, they probably win this game. Taking that away, the officiating was terrible for much of this game, but in particular on the last play where the officials missed a blatant pushoff by Kuzmanic on her game-winning basket. But even with that, the Cardinals had time to go down and answer with a basket of their own. They looked panicked on that rush though and turned it over. Coach Roof had a timeout left, and I'm not sure why she didn't call it there to draw up a play. Most of her timeouts are to get substitutions out, but this was a situation where she should have. In a game where just about everything could go wrong, it did go wrong. Too bad.

I don't think the Cardinals have much of a shot anymore to sneak in the back way to the conference tournament, though stranger things have happened. They only have a pair of home games left, including one on Wednesday against Millikin. That will be my last home game of the year as I have another commitment on Senior Night (February 15th). Hopefully though Wednesday can be one last shot at a back door into the tournament.