NFC West Preview

We're halfway through the NFL previews so far, with 4 more to go. I also still have one more wild card pick to reveal from each conference, so there's that. But today I'm focused on the NFC West.

This is a division that got a lot stronger in the past year or so as Seattle made a jump that I'm not sure a lot of people were totally expecting (I know I didn't) that made this division very top heavy, but St. Louis was no slouch, and Arizona was... well, not very good. Still, this is arguably the best division in football (I think the NFC North might be the best top to bottom, though the overall talent at the top here might outweigh it). Let's see how this goes.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC South, AFC South

1. San Francisco 49ers
Last year: 11-4-1 (1st), lost Super Bowl XLVII
They battled through a quarterback "controversy" to make the Super Bowl, then addressed it by shipping off Alex Smith in the offseason. A full year of Colin Kaepernick is a pretty terrifying prospect. The biggest question mark I have on offense for these guys though is their receiving corps. Michael Crabtree is out until at least November recovering from a torn Achilles, and Mario Manningham will start the year on the PUP list with a knee injury. Anquan Boldin will be good at one wideout spot, but I'm not sure about Kyle Williams on the other end. That defense though... if Justin Smith is healthy, Aldon Smith will be a factor again, and this defense can be feared. If Nnamdi Asomugha regains his form from his Oakland days... oh man.
2013 Prediction: 13-3

2. Seattle Seahawks
Last year: 10-6 11-5 (2nd), lost in NFC Divisional Round
Sorry, I had to repress the urge to fix their record. I'm not still bitter or anything... Anyway, as long as Russell Wilson avoids the Sophomore Slump, offensively these guys will be fine. Marshawn Lynch is still one of the better backs in the league, and the receiving corps isn't bad. If Percy Harvin can play for any of 2013, these guys could end up in New Jersey for the Super Bowl pretty easily.
2013 Prediction: 11-5, Wild Card

3. St. Louis Rams
Last year: 7-8-1 (3rd), missed playoffs
The departure of longtime running back Steven Jackson leaves a hole in that aspect of the Rams' game, which could pose some problems, but the passing game shouldn't be bad with some new weapons added via the draft in Tavon Austin to give Sam Bradford someone to throw to. Alec Ogletree will certainly help the defense out, so while they may not end up in the playoffs, they're certainly not a bad team. They just happen to be in the wrong division at the wrong time.
2013 Prediction: 7-9

4. Arizona Cardinals
Last year: 5-11, missed playoffs
Arizona addressed one of their most pressing needs in the offseason in getting Carson Palmer to be their field general, which should make Larry Fitzgerald a little happier. They tried to address their biggest need via the draft though in picking Jonathan Cooper 7th overall, but he broke his leg and will likely be gone for the year. Palmer might be lucky to survive back there. If there's any redeeming quality about this team though, it's their defense. Teams found it hard to throw on them last year, and adding Tyrann Mathieu will provide an interesting spark either defensively or on special teams, assuming continues to stay out of trouble.
2013 Prediction: 6-10

Even though tomorrow is a holiday, based on the schedule I'll have another preview up, this time on the AFC West.

AFC South Preview

It's rare that I post on a Saturday lately, but in order to make sure that I get everything posted on time for this season, I have to scramble and post today and tomorrow as well as into this next week. College football might also prompt a couple posts on Thursday. We'll see.

As for today, I'm looking into the AFC South, which should be one of the more fun divisions this season. Maybe not to the same extent as it was last year, but it will be a fun battle for the top. And probably also a fun battle for the bottom.

Common opponents on schedule: AFC West, NFC West

1.  Houston Texans
Last year: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Divisional Round
The offense largely stood pat, which in the grand scheme of things isn't necessarily a bad thing. As long as Arian Foster can keep putting up good numbers, it takes pressure off Matt Schaub, who is a really good, but not great, quarterback. The defense though... even though he's old, when you add Ed Reed to your secondary you're in good shape. It only helps a defense already anchored by J.J. Watt. People like him are why I didn't play football in high school (and I mean that out of utter respect for his physical skills. Dude's an athletic freak.)
2013 Prediction: 12-4

2. Indianapolis Colts
Last year: 11-5 (2nd), lost in AFC Wild Card
The Colts were the big surprise of the 2012 season, becoming a major storyline with head coach Chuck Pagano being diagnosed with leukemia during their bye week, seeing Bruce Arians fill in and then the Colts stepped it up for their ailing coach, winning games they had no business winning, with any appearances by Pagano or shaving of cheerleaders' heads at the 50 yard line between quarters serving as catalysts for #Chuckstrong magic. That kind of magic isn't something you will see every year, so there's bound to be at least some regression. I don't think there will be too much though; not with Andrew Luck under center. They'll still be good, just maybe not to the same degree.
2013 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card

3. Tennessee Titans
Last year: 6-10 (3rd), missed playoffs
It's Year 3 of Jake Locker, who is still developing, but the team is his to run now with Matt Hasselbeck having moved on. Chris Johnson can help a little bit, but the question is whether Nate Washington and Kenny Britt If He Stays Healthy can be productive. Defensively... not impressed. The Titans don't play the Patriots, so Simmons doesn't have to worry about Bernard Karmell Pollard.
2013 Prediction: 5-11

4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last year: 2-14 (4th), missed playoffs
I think they're certainly better than 2-14, if nothing else. Luke Joeckel will help solidify the offensive line, and Denard Robinson can certainly add an element of uncertainty to that offense, but this team isn't going to go anywhere with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback. Chad Henne would be a bit of an improvement, though it's certainly possible that Gabbert can improve in Year 3. I'm not counting on it though.
2013 Prediction: 3-13

Tomorrow is a rare Sunday where I'm not working, but I'll still have a preview post for you as we move to arguably the strongest division in the NFL.

NFC South Preview

After a day off from the NFL to focus on trying to single out the 29 sniveling cowards at the FBS level (don't worry, I'll probably end up singling out just about everyone else by the time the season is over) I'm back to the focus of the level of football I love more.

Today we're back in the NFC South, which has been a seesaw the last few years at the top. Everyone has won the division at least once since 2002, though Tampa has the longest drought. I'm sticking to that seesaw theory in my picks for how this division stacks up.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC West, AFC East

1. New Orleans Saints
Last year: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
The biggest addition this offseason was the return of Sean Payton from his punishment for Bountygate. Ultimately this will be a boon with Drew Brees back to do Drew Brees things again, and his top weapons remain. On defense, they're switching to a 3-4 now, so it's a totally different scheme from what they've been running. I'm not sure how much of a difference it will make though. After giving up the most yards and second-most points in the league last season, I wonder if they'll be able to fix that problem (in 2011, they gave up the 9th most yards and were in the middle of the pack in scoring defense). I think Brees has enough firepower to give the Saints the division now with Payton back, but that defense will bring them back down to earth some.
2013 Prediction: 11-5

2. Atlanta Falcons
Last year: 13-3 (1st), lost in NFC Championship Game
The Falcons let stud running back Michael Turner go in the offseason but replaced him with Steven Jackson, so they'll still have a ground game. Matt Ryan was good last year and finally won a playoff game, so that monkey is off his back. He still has his top 3 receiving targets in Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, and an insensitive idiot who needs to learn to shut his mouth/stay off Twitter and actually watch legal proceedings before making judgments, especially ones that call for people to kill themselves. Scumbag. Anyway, the big thing that gives me pause about this Falcons team was the sort of voodoo magic they seemed to have at home. Their luck in close games last year is bound to come back down, even if just a tad. They'll be back in the playoffs, just not as the division winner.
2013 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card

3. Carolina Panthers
Last year: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
Cam Newton continues to develop, so Year 3 should see continued improvement from him. They had a respectable defense last year too that should only get better with guys like Star Lotulelei. The Panthers also had terrible luck in close games, so based on the same premise as Atlanta, regression to the mean is probably due here. Not enough to get them in the playoffs, but I think these guys are headed in the right direction.
2013 Prediction: 8-8

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last year: 7-9 (4th), missed playoffs
I've been pretty high on Josh Freeman over the years, but I'm not sure I can trust him anymore. He's too inconsistent. He can have stretches like last year where he looked amazing, but then follow that up with several clunkers. They did address their biggest need in pass defense by trading for Darelle Revis, and Doug Martin will be able to run for a lot of yards this year. The question is whether or not that defense can stop anyone from throwing at will, and can Freeman have a year like he did in 2010. I'm not convinced.
2013 Prediction: 5-11

I'm going to put in some weekend work and be back tomorrow with a look at the AFC South.

2013 NCAA FBS Rankings: Week 1

Ah, it's good to be back and doing some number crunching. At least at its highest level, NCAA football begins tonight. There are only a handful of games though, with most of the action starting on Saturday. Nonetheless, I need to get started on crunching the numbers.

Earlier this week I highlighted the formulas I will be using this year, but of the three, I can really only use one of them at this stage. The Road-Home Disparity Index is best saved for the end of the year to account for any cancellations and what have you, and it's much too early to factor in Playoff Points. As such, we're going back to the Non Conference Schedule Strength. What I did in the early part of the season last year was rank each team's point total, but I didn't really release that information until later on when there was a decent sample size and I could start thinking about playoff seeds.

Instead for the first few weeks, I'm going to look at this by conference. Since these conferences range in size from as few as 7 teams to as many as 14, I need to give each conference's score as an average (rounded to the nearest hundreth of a point). I'm sure you'll see a theme pretty early on. So without further ado, here's the initial rankings based on the opening week:

1. Mountain West (1.58). San Diego State, San Jose State and Air Force all scheduled FCS teams, but this is more than offset by 5 teams going to power conference schools. Others get tough opponents or go on the road. Strong starting schedule (which of course will somewhat penalize the tougher conferences, but not too badly).
2. MAC (1.53). Having an extra team compared to the Mountain West doesn't really help when it comes to computing averages, (the sum score for the MAC was 1 point higher) but average is more fair. Kent State, Ball State and Eastern Michigan all face FCS squads, but 6 MAC schools go on the road to face BCS opponents.
3. Conference USA (1.42). Middle Tennessee moved conferences, but they still host a D-IAA opponent, as will Tulsa. This was offset by 4 trips to "big-time" schools. Their sum score actually matched the MAC's as well, but having 14 schools will lower the average.
4. Big Ten (1.17). The highest of the BCS conferences, this is helped by having only a couple schools hosting weak opponents (granted, it's Illinois and Indiana, but still). Northwestern, Penn State and Purdue all travel to face BCS opponents from another conference. (Random aside/possible additional unprovoked shot at the U of I: ESPN Chicago producer Adam Abdalla, who I used to intern for a few years back, came up with a great hash tag for Illini football. Use at your leisure.)
5. SEC (1.14). Part of me was a little surprised they were this high, but we have to remember last year that these guys, for being so "elite" backloaded their schedules with cupcakes (I think as a ploy to cheat the already corrupt BCS). Missouri and Tennessee are the only transgressors this week, countered by Mississippi State and Georgia visiting other BCS schools. Alabama and LSU play neutral site games against other power conference schools, and Krntucky also has a neutral game. South Carolina and Auburn host schools from those conferences too. Not bad.
6. Sun Belt (1.00). Then there's these guys, who have 3 teams (South Alabama, Georgia State, Arkansas State) playing FCS schools, with only 2 teams hitting the road to face BCS opponents. It's enough to average out as each team hosting another FBS school, but still.
7. Pac-12 (0.83). Oregon, Oregon State and Arizona get punished for facing those smaller schools, and this score does get dragged down due to byes by Arizona State and Stanford. California and Arizona State do get kudos though for starting their schedules on the road at BCS opponents.
8. American Athletic (0.7). The former Big East doesn't start too well, with Connecticut, Houston and South Florida pigging out. Memphis is off, and the rest of the conference isn't helped by the lack of big time opponents (though Rutgers and Temple do have decent trips scheduled).
9. ACC (0.64). North Carolina visiting South Carolina is the only thing keeping the ACC really afloat this week. If it weren't also for Clemson hosting Georgia and Virginia Tech's game against Alabama, they'd be really screwed. Boston College, Wake Forest, Duke and Georgia Tech have FCS teams lined up this weekend.
10. Big 12 (0.4). TCU's neutral site game against LSU helps, as does Oklahoma State hosting Mississippi State, but Baylor, Iowa State, West Virginia and Kansas State all host FCS teams. The Kansas State one is hard, seeing as they're playing defending champion North Dakota State, but I have to stick to my guns on this. (This is more of an attack on KSU than a diss of NDSU, I have family up there!)

Next week I'll include a weekly score as well as an overall score through two weeks of scheduling stuff. It'll still be too early to even really look at Playoff Points or RHDI though, so it'll still just be this metric.

AFC East Preview

Another day, another NFL preview, even though we're only into the second day of it. It's a football week, what can I say?

So today we swap conferences but stay out east for the AFC. This has been a division that's undergone a lot of turmoil both in terms of personnel moves and legal ramifications. And injuries. It's been an interesting lead-up to the season out here. Without further ado, here's how I think these guys finish out 2013.

Common opponents: AFC North, NFC South

1. New England Patriots
Last year: 12-4 (1st), lost in AFC Championship Game
I don't even know where to begin with these guys. First you lose Wes Welker in free agency (to Denver of all places), then Gronk ends up needing more surgery, and then the whole situation with Aaron Hernandez that I've actively tried to avoid. That leaves Tom Brady with the possibility of Gronk (assuming he isn't "Yo soy fiesta'ing" his way into a broken cheekbone after drinking shots of tequila and jumping headfirst into a 4-foot pool of Jello or something), Danny Amendola If He Stays Healthy (credit Bill Simmons), and Julian Edelman as his top receivers. His running game is pretty good though with Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, and this is Brady we're talking about. If this were any other division though, I think we'd be talking about a major collapse.
2013 Prediction: 9-7

2. Miami Dolphins
Last year: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
Look, I'm not entirely sold on Ryan Tannehill either. But he has some good weapons (Mike Wallace, rookie Lamar Miller) and it's only Tannehill's second year in the league. As long as he doesn't end up looking like Blaine Gabbert, he'll be fine. Defensively, I'm not 100% sold on their secondary, but their front seven doesn't look too bad. I think it's too early to think playoffs for these guys though.
2013 Prediction: 7-9

3. Buffalo Bills
Last year: 6-10 (4th), missed playoffs
CJ Spiller is CJ Spiller and he's going to put up plenty of yards. This isn't the issue. The issue continues to be the man taking snaps under center. Early in the 2011 season we all thought Ryan Fitzpatrick was going to be a good quarterback and help the Bills back to respectability. He fizzled, and their management decided to bring in... EJ Manuel with a first round pick! My friend and former WONC colleague Trevor, as the one Bills fan I know, was less than thrilled about this and took his frustrations to Twitter (here's a microcosm of the night. Really it was all around entertaining though.) But with Manuel a question mark, we're looking at Jeff Tuel as the Week 1 starter! On the other side of the ball, Jairus Byrd remains a good safety and the biggest question for me is whether or not Mario Williams can rebound. Trevor, I know you said 4-12 is generous, so I'm going to, at least for the next 5 seconds, pretend to be like Andrew Carnegie or something.
2013 Prediction: 6-10

4. New York Jets
Last year: 6-10 (3rd), missed playoffs
So here we have a team that got gashed on the ground last year but was good against the pass, then instead of keeping their best defensive player (Revis Island) traded him away (in fairness, he was coming back from injury). Then in an effort to erase the laughter surrounding the circus franchise, they traded the source of the circus to whom they never gave a chance to salvage things, and now based on Sanchez possibly being hurt and Geno Smith being not very good, Greg McElroy might be your Week 1 starter. You know what? Just for posterity's sake:

2013 Prediction: 4-12
Come back Friday for the NFC South Preview! Tomorrow I'll be looking at how well college football team's set up their Week 1 schedules.

NFC East Preview

Ah, it's good to have the shield back.

We're a little over a week away from the NFL season beginning, and college football starts this week as well. With just a few days left, I'm going to start cranking out previews by division, like I did last year.

Last year I ended up starting with the defending Super Bowl champion's division, but I'm going in reverse this time. I want to end with the defending champs, so I'm starting out east. Here's how I think the NFC East will shake up.

Common opponents on schedule: NFC North, AFC West.

1. Washington Redskins
Last year: 10-6 (1st), lost in NFC Wild Card Round
I feel kind of dumb after picking these guys to finish last last year. I obviously didn't realize how dynamic RGIII was going to be. Ultimately how successful this Skins team will be rests on how well he's recovered from his torn ACL. If he's not able to go in Week 1 (though most signs seem to suggest he will be), I think Kirk Cousins can hold his own. Having Alfred Morris as a running back also helps. This team can score plenty of points. My concern is whether or not their secondary will be able to hold their own. DeAngelo Hall isn't facing Jay Cutler 16 times, after all.
2013 Prediction: 10-6

2. New York Giants
Last year: 9-7 (2nd), missed playoffs
I really have no place picking things when it comes to this team. Every time I thought I had the Giants pegged, they proved me wrong. Their road to winning Super Bowl XLVI went against everything I figured would happen. So, naturally, I went with them whenever conventional wisdom said they'd fail... and they ended up failing! Eli is still a good quarterback. and the Nicks/Cruz pairing is one of the best in the league. But their defense isn't quite what it was, since the depth on the defensive line is diminished and I'm not entirely sure about their back seven. They'll be decent, but I don't think they'll have extended playing time in January.
2013 Prediction: 8-8

3. Philadelphia Eagles
Last year: 4-12 (4th), missed playoffs
This past week, Michael Vick was named the starter again for this team under Chip Kelly. As long as he stays healthy, this team's offense will be tough to beat, with weapons like LeSean McCoy, Desean Jackson and Brent Celek. The issue is, Vick is rarely healthy and always seems to take a beating. So for a best-case scenario, let's say he plays 12 games and Nick Foles starts the other four. The jury is still out on him, ultimately. They've got decent rushers in the 3-4, but I'm not ultimately sold on this defense. Of course, that could be because Andy Reid was kind of dumb with those coordinators. We'll see how Kelly handles it in his first year.
2013 Prediction: 6-10

4. Dallas Cowboys
Last year: 8-8 (3rd), missed playoffs
My fiancee's grandfather lives down in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and at least to some extent follows the Cowboys. He's up to visit and we were talking a little about football the other night and he had... shall we say... some strong words about Jerry Jones. Needless to say, I don't think the local sentiment about him down there is very good. And I think it's with good reason; Jones seems to keep thinking the Cowboys are just one or two pieces away from being a Super Bowl contender. Unfortunately for him, I don't think the offensive line is that great, which doesn't help under any circumstances. As fun as it is to rag on Tony Romo for choking in big games (the Google image search is pretty funny), he still puts up good numbers, and he still has some great targets in Dez Bryant and Jason Witten. But switching over to a 4-3 defense (thus moving DeMarcus Ware to a defensive end spot) is probably not the best idea out there. This all will probably result in Jason Garrett getting canned because Jerry Jones doesn't want to take the blame for his own failures and will replace him with another yes-man resulting in more mediocrity. And crotch scratching.
2013 Prediction: 5-11

2013 NCAA Football Season: New Year, New Formulas, Same Old Playoff Griping

For much of this calendar year I haven't been able to do a lot of writing for COAS (NBA Tournament of Champions aside), and I feel bad about it sometimes, but unfortunately other things take priority. However, as we approach football season and one final year of a piece of crap system, I'm back at calculating how the FBS should really run its postseason.

Last year's run was a pretty fun one, and I kind of enjoyed really following a season for the first time to really try to get a better idea of who to put in a 16 team playoff. It may not have been perfect, but I'm sure people enjoyed it more than the 42-13 drubbing Notre Dame received at the hands of Alabama (you know, unless you're a Bama die hard or Notre Dame hater; I don't fall in either category). The handful of upsets in the tournament made for a little drama, while still not invalidating the regular season.

So with a full season under my belt, I wanted to take things up a notch in terms of formulas, just to give myself a little more information to work with when it comes time to decide at-large teams and seed the field. (Also, it allows me to judge poor scheduling habits that will hopefully start working their way out of the system next year when we actually do get a playoff.) Returning from last year is my Non-Conference Schedule Strength metric, which I use to try to measure how well a team schedules its out of conference slate. For each week, teams receive a score based on how well they schedule. The formula basically goes like this:

• -1 point for facing an FCS team (last year, I penalized UTSA with a -2 a couple times for holding onto old D-II matchups)
• 0 points for a bye week or conference game
• 1 point for hosting an FBS team not in a "BCS Conference" (As much as I harp on equality, almost every year your champion will come out of a power conference barring some crazy voodoo magic happening, hence the favoritism)
• 2 points for going on the road to face an FBS team not in a "BCS Conference"* OR hosting an FBS team in a "BCS Conference"
• 3 points for going on the road AND facing a team in a "BCS Conference"*

Note: The "BCS Conferences" are defined as the ACC, American Athletic, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC.

Obviously independents are going to have a much higher NCSS than everyone else, but this provides a pretty good indicator of how well they're scheduling overall. (This is also why I didn't include an independent average in my weekly rankings.) Inherently it also benefits the "non-BCS conferences" since they tend to go on the road to face more big time opponents, though really it's an indicator that for all the talk from BCS conferences about how "Oh, our schedules are the toughest, you guys don't play anybody!" is something of a lie since their non-conference schedules weren't really up to par.

I need to go beyond that though. Last year a lot of decisions on at-large teams were pretty subjective based on quality of losses, so I found a much more objective system that, while not perfect, should help alleviate some of those problems. The IHSA uses "Playoff Points" in the construction of its football playoffs, and it's an easy enough system to translate over that I'm going to use it here. Basically, at the end of the season, the total number of wins by teams you beat counts as your "Playoff Points". I'm not counting wins against FCS teams in this system, but everything else will. If a team plays in a mediocre conference, this score might get inflated a little bit, but beating a really good team will help balance this out.

Finally, I'm also going to condemn a major scheduling disparity by including what I call the "Road-Home Disparity Index". What I noticed really looking at schedules last year is that most, if not all, FBS teams play an unbalanced schedule in terms of home and road games, with a ton of games coming at home. This is great for you gate receipts and all, but for the sake of competition, this is not ideal. For its upcoming season, my alma mater North Central College has a 10 game slate (they're D-III) consisting of 5 home games and 5 road games. Granted, 4 of the 5 are in-conference, but the athletic administration did a good job of making sure that the non-conference schedule balances it out. Going back as far as 2008, 2011 is the only time North Central played an unbalanced schedule (and also faced an NAIA team at home... shame, though it hasn't happened since thankfully.)

For this formula, I'm going to tally up the number of home, road and neutral site games played during the regular season (conference championships don't count since those are merit-based). From there, I'm going to subtract the number of home games from the number of road games and halve the difference. I won't count neutral site games against either team that plays out of fairness to both. For example, taking Alabama's 2012 schedule would give 7 home games, 4 road games, and 1 neutral site game. Taking the 4 road games and subtracting their 7 home dates gives us -3, which results in a final RHDI of -1.5. I would guess most teams will be in the -1 to -1.5 range. I will probably look more favorably on teams closer to zero, though this, like the other formulas, will not be an end-all, be-all factor in awarding bids or seeds.

Hopefully this regular season will have just as many interesting storylines as last year's did, and hopefully we can see some great matchups set up for another fun playoff! It works at the lower levels; why can't it work at the highest level of college football? I'll start crunching numbers on a weekly basis beginning later this week, since Thursday marks the beginning of this season.