Today we're back in the NFC South, which has been a seesaw the last few years at the top. Everyone has won the division at least once since 2002, though Tampa has the longest drought. I'm sticking to that seesaw theory in my picks for how this division stacks up.
Common opponents on schedule: NFC West, AFC East
Last year: 7-9 (3rd), missed playoffs
The biggest addition this offseason was the return of Sean Payton from his punishment for Bountygate. Ultimately this will be a boon with Drew Brees back to do Drew Brees things again, and his top weapons remain. On defense, they're switching to a 3-4 now, so it's a totally different scheme from what they've been running. I'm not sure how much of a difference it will make though. After giving up the most yards and second-most points in the league last season, I wonder if they'll be able to fix that problem (in 2011, they gave up the 9th most yards and were in the middle of the pack in scoring defense). I think Brees has enough firepower to give the Saints the division now with Payton back, but that defense will bring them back down to earth some.
2013 Prediction: 11-5
Last year: 13-3 (1st), lost in NFC Championship Game
The Falcons let stud running back Michael Turner go in the offseason but replaced him with Steven Jackson, so they'll still have a ground game. Matt Ryan was good last year and finally won a playoff game, so that monkey is off his back. He still has his top 3 receiving targets in Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones, and an insensitive idiot who needs to learn to shut his mouth/stay off Twitter and actually watch legal proceedings before making judgments, especially ones that call for people to kill themselves. Scumbag. Anyway, the big thing that gives me pause about this Falcons team was the sort of voodoo magic they seemed to have at home. Their luck in close games last year is bound to come back down, even if just a tad. They'll be back in the playoffs, just not as the division winner.
2013 Prediction: 10-6, Wild Card
Last year: 7-9 (2nd), missed playoffs
Cam Newton continues to develop, so Year 3 should see continued improvement from him. They had a respectable defense last year too that should only get better with guys like Star Lotulelei. The Panthers also had terrible luck in close games, so based on the same premise as Atlanta, regression to the mean is probably due here. Not enough to get them in the playoffs, but I think these guys are headed in the right direction.
2013 Prediction: 8-8
Last year: 7-9 (4th), missed playoffs
I've been pretty high on Josh Freeman over the years, but I'm not sure I can trust him anymore. He's too inconsistent. He can have stretches like last year where he looked amazing, but then follow that up with several clunkers. They did address their biggest need in pass defense by trading for Darelle Revis, and Doug Martin will be able to run for a lot of yards this year. The question is whether or not that defense can stop anyone from throwing at will, and can Freeman have a year like he did in 2010. I'm not convinced.
2013 Prediction: 5-11
I'm going to put in some weekend work and be back tomorrow with a look at the AFC South.
No comments:
Post a Comment