I haven't been the most accurate prognosticator when it comes to the NBA this postseason, though I did pick the Heat to come out of the East, and they get a great matchup with the Spurs coming out of the West. I was way off on my Grizzlies prediction there, but that's just a credit to this Spurs team. They should give the Heat a run for their money.
I heard a fun stat earlier this week saying that since Jordan retired the second time, every Finals series has involved either the Spurs, Lakers, or Heat (the lesson, as always: Stern doesn't believe in parity).
By and large, experience here is a wash, since the Spurs have won 4 titles since 1999 with Tim Duncan leading the way and a great supporting cast beside him. This is probably the most complete team in the league, and definitely more so than the Heat, who counter this with the best player in the league right now.
The old adage remains though that you need 8 or 9 guys to win a title. Both these teams certainly have those qualifying supporting casts, it's just a question of which one steps up more. For the Spurs, my eye is on Kawhi Leonard, since he'll probably be guarding LeBron most of the time. Obviously LeBron will get his, but if Leonard can make him work for it while still contributing, say, 10-15 points offensively, he should be good. For the Heat, I wonder who's guarding Duncan, since even at his age he's putting up really good numbers, but the other question is will Chalmers/Cole be able to contain Tony Parker? Parker won the Finals MVP in 2007 after scoring in bunches (granted, Delonte West was guarding him), so if he's effective like that again, the Heat will have some issues.
Ultimately though I think it comes down to the other members or Miami's Big Three. How hurt is Dwyane Wade? If he can put together a decent enough series with a bum knee, that takes a lot of pressure off LeBron. Chris Bosh is probably just as, if not more important though. He needs to crash the boards and hit his open shots. Individuals can only carry a team so far, you need everyone to step up at this stage.
I do still think the Spurs are the better team, but I'm not sold that they can overcome the best player in the league. Begrudgingly, I'm going with the favorites. Heat in seven.
Whoever wins gets to take part in my next big idea that, in two weeks, is going to rock your world.
For baseball fans, yesterday's Outside the Lines report brings to light a complex issue, especially for fans around my age who grew up in an era now tainted by performance enhancing drugs. I didn't really follow baseball that much until 1998 when I made my first trip to Wrigley amidst the Cubs gunning for the playoffs and Sammy Sosa launching baseballs all over the place. As a 9-year-old, I didn't know anything about PED's, nor did I really care. It wasn't until later when the league started to mandate testing (despite steroids being banned in 1991) and Sosa's name really started to become linked to drug use that I started to care.
With all the allegations that have been thrown around in the past few years, not to mention the degree of accuracy seen with these allegations, I tend to take these rumors pretty seriously. So when I read the news about Tony Bosch of Biogenesis of America finally agreeing to cooperate with Major League Baseball and the hammer that is about to fall, I find myself fascinated by what's to come: who all will be caught in the firestorm? How hard is the hammer going to fall? Will this serve as a warning to players present and future to stay clean? Hard to say on all accounts.
Of the guys mentioned, I'm especially not surprised about either Alex Rodriguez or Ryan Braun showing up. A-Rod has already admitted to past use, so to hear about use since then isn't too surprising, and Braun already failed a test but blamed a middleman for his mistake got off on a technicality. If the allegations are true and Bosch has documentation to prove that these guys did in fact acquire illegal substances from him, they should face those steep 100 game suspensions. As for these other names that haven't been released, they also should face their 50 game punishments, again, assuming the allegations have documentation to prove it.
While watching the KTLA Morning News at work this morning, at least one fan said he thought the steroid allegations were all over and done with. I wish it were the case. I think we're going to see steroid and other PED use for a long time going forward, even if the hammer comes down incredibly hard on these guys, which it should. But hopefully these guys will serve as an example.
In 2011 I argued that Braun deserved his MVP award, something I wrote before the positive test news broke. Especially now, I think his award is nullified, and a lot of these MVP's from the last 20 years are no longer legitimate (A-Rod's 2003 MVP is one that deserves a lot of scrutiny, not to mention the odds that all of Barry Bonds' MVP's are tainted too). If guys test positive for performance enhancers in this day and age and would make the Hall of Fame if their numbers were legitimate, they should not be allowed in. The people before are another story. They don't deserve a place alongside guys like Ruth and Aaron, but they should have a wing for guys who "disgraced the sport", since they're still an important part of baseball history. While we're at it, let's let Pete Rose into that wing as well. We can't just ignore 20 years of baseball history here.
All in all, this is a sad story that puts a lot of baseball's biggest names in a dark light, but at least here the league wants to do something to clean up the game. Hopefully it's a step in the right direction.
Game Summary
The roof was closed at Miller Park, given the rain, so there was some opportunity for fireworks offensively, and they didn't disappoint. The Twins (20-28) put together a 2-out rally in the 1st for a 1-0 lead, and the Brewers (19-30) threatened in their half despite Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez getting days off before great defense bailed out the Twins. Minnesota added a run in the 4th, which Milwaukee got right back. The Twins out together a couple runs in the 5th, and Milwaukee stormed back again in the 6th. The Twins shut them down after that, adding a couple insurance runs towards the end for some padding they wouldn't end up needing.
Pitchers of Record
W: Kevin Correia (5-4): 6 IP, 7 H, 3 R (3 ER), 1 BB, 4 K. Correia got bailed out by his defense to avoid damage in the 1st, then cruised most of the rest of the way. He did give up three home runs in this game, though fortunately for the Twins they all came with nobody on.
L: Wily Peralta (3-6): 5 IP, 5 H, 4 R (3 ER), 5 BB, 3 K. Peralta retired the first two men he faced, then walked the next 2 batters before giving up an RBI single. Walks tend to kill you, and those two put the Brewers at a disadvantage from the get go.
SV: Glen Perkins (10): 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 K. Perkins punched out the first two men he faced before Ron Roenicke decided to bring Ryan Braun in to pinch hit, and Perkins got Braun to line out to end the game.
Key Stats
Joe Mauer (MIN): 1-3, HR (4), RBI, 3 R. Mauer's average is up to .339 for the year now, but he drew a couple big walks to start rallies for the Twins. His home run was also the first time I've been in attendance for a replay review. (Related note: Angel Hernandez was the 2nd base umpire today. Somehow they correctly ruled that the ball went over the yellow line for a home run like I saw from my seat and overturned what was originally ruled as a double. He's still an idiot though.)
Milwaukee: Hit into 3 double plays. The first one came in the first inning after the Brewers loaded the bases with nobody out. Yuniesky Betancourt then lined to short, and Florimon threw to second to get the back end of the double play. Alex Gonzalez bounced into a double play in the 4th after Milwaukee got on the board to kill a tying chance, and the immortal Jeff Bianchi grounded into one in the 6th after the Brewers hit a couple more homers to kill a chance to tie the game. Those are killers.
Carlos Gomez (MIL): 2-3, 2 HR (10), 2 RBI, 2 R. His first was a no-doubter to left center that I lost track of, and his second followed a Jean Segura homer a little short of where he hit the first one. The former Twin has been on a binge lately (I guess he homered twice on Saturday), and was a big reason why the Brewers were close in this one despite sitting several of their regulars.
Final Thoughts
This was the second baseball game I got my fiancee too this season; it was her first trip to Milwaukee for a game, raising her ballpark count to 3. Same for Arnie the Alpaca (pictured to the right). I think she kind of enjoyed the trip, and definitely enjoyed the food that Miller Park has to offer. She thought that "it was too easy to hit home runs" here, which may or may not be true; I haven't kept track of how many homers a game I've seen at Wrigley versus at Miller Park.
Either way, this was a fun game to get to (and I got to enjoy the WONC traffic bed in the 1st inning), and makes it 10 years running of trips to Milwaukee for ball games with my dad. Neither of these teams are likely to play more than 162 games this year, but either team could go on a little run of some sort. You never know.
There was a fair amount of drama and some good basketball being played in the past couple weeks as part of the NBA Playoffs. Even though the Bulls are no longer in, I plan on predicting everything down to the NBA Finals, if for no other reason than I like to prognosticate things.
For the most part, I share Geoffy's thoughts about this Bulls season. I'm disappointed they got ousted by the Heat again, though I expected it, and they gave the Heat a decent series. I'm immensely proud of this Bulls team for sticking together and overachieving without their best player, and I'm looking forward to next season.
So without further ado, here's how I figure the conference championships are going to play out.
I will freely admit: when it comes to LeBron James and the Miami Heat, I am probably incredibly biased. Put them against my Bulls, and that bias grows against this super team from South Beach. After seeing some video of last night's Game 3 though, I had to write something. I may not have gotten to see the game since I went to see Iron Man 3, but from what I've seen, some things need to be addressed.
Coming into this series, I didn't expect the Bulls to win. I don't think my favorite Bulls expert Geoffy did either. I did expect the Bulls to give the Heat hell, and to an extent they have. But like Geoffy said, I think the Heat have gotten into the Bulls' heads a little bit. I love the fact that this series has brought back playoff basketball from the "good old days" when Michael Jordan played, but I fear this Bulls team is going in the direction of the Bad Boy Pistons... and I'm not overly thrilled about it.
It's the playoffs; hard fouls are going to happen. You have to keep your cool through it all. Miami has lost theirs some, but the Bulls have lost theirs more. I love that there's fire in this team. That's what makes me love Joakim Noah (especially for the GIF to the right) and even though he scares me sometimes, Nate Robinson. That block on LeBron was amazing. This team is going to make Miami earn every win they get. And so far, the Heat have definitely earned their two wins in this series. LeBron raised his game a level since Game 1. Miami absolutely deserves to be up in this series, and they're clearly the best team in the league.
But there's things that continue to bother me about this Miami team, hence the title of the post. The biggest moment last night came in the 2nd quarter:
Did LeBron deserve a technical for the extra-curricular shove he put on Nazr Mohammed? Probably. Did Nazr deserve to get tossed for his shove after that? Yeah, absolutely. But when I saw this the first time, my first thought was "LeBron flopped". Yeah, Nazr should have kept his head there and not shoved LeBron. It might have changed the complexion of the game. It was dirty.
But the thing I take away even after having some second thoughts watching this YouTube video a couple times continues to be, "LeBron flopped". Even Tom Thibodeau, someone who I wouldn't necessarily expect to call out an opponent for something like that, said that there was some flopping. Think back to that game where the Bulls broke Miami's long winning streak and LeBron's flagrant foul. Boozer barely budged when LeBron ran into him. Now seemingly the strongest guy in the league, who couldn't knock over Carlos Boozer, is going to fall over after a shove? It doesn't smell right. And if you watch that Nate Robinson block again, Marco Belinelli gets the rebound and Wade flops. It's disgusting.
This Miami team, if they win the title, will probably go into lore as one of the best teams of all time, and they should. The Bulls will not go quietly and Miami will have to earn this series win. But there's a reason people hate this Miami Heat team. It's not because they're talented; I respect their talent. But this is a dirty team that whines and flops, and the ultimate thing I can say about that LeBron play above, or Wade's flop? "MJ would never have done that. Not in a million years." That is why I hate Miami, dislike James, and hate Wade. As talented as these guys are, flopping should be the farthest thing from their mind, not their go-to tactic. Play the game the right way.
I may not be a pundit when it comes to predicting things (my NCAA tournament record speaks for itself), but I think I did all right when it came to first round predictions. Six out of eight isn't too bad, and neither is successfully predicting the entire Eastern Conference for the first round (plus nailing the number of games on three of those series), so naturally I'm going to try to build on that success only to watch everything crash and burn in the next round. Hey, at least I'm honest and realistic about it.
On the whole though, most of the series went the way people were expecting things to break, though I think some people may have been surprised by Golden State Steph Curry going off like he did, and maybe the way the Clippers collapsed, so now I don't have to listen to the KTLA people go on about either Los Angeles basketball team. Good times.
Anyway, here's how I'm thinking the next couple rounds break:
So a rare glimpse into the personal life of yours truly: on my usual Fridays off, I take Logan off to school in the mornings and come home to relax a little bit. Today was a little different in that I was heading to my fiancee's house. The original reasoning for it was that they were down a car and I was taking her mom to work today to help them out. I was mistaken. Kristen had set me up: she had taken the day off of work and had completely fooled me with an elaborate plan that led to a fun afternoon, culminating in this:
