Unfortunately, I'm at the bottom of the pecking order. Last week Adam swept our three disputed games because of course he did, Joe took four of five from me, and they split their four disputed games. As a result I have 18 games I somehow need to make up over the remaining nine weeks of the schedule.
That won't be easy if you look at how we've picked in relation to each other, given that Adam continues his ridiculous run on hero games while I've had a combination of bad luck and some flat out bad picks.
I'm contemplating a halftime adjustment this week, as Adam and I disagree on six games, Joe and I on five, and the two of them on three games out of 14. Let's get the second half underway!
Thursday Night
Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears (-3.5)
Lucas: Bears. Honestly it doesn't matter; this was the first thing I thought of though looking at this matchup given that the Bears own Carolina's first round pick next year.
Sunday Morning
Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots (+2.5)
Lucas: Colts. I mean... I know it's Germany and not England, but Gardner Minshew has to still have special Europe powers from his Jaguars days, right?
Adam: Colts. This seems like a cupcake of a pick. In Germany you have to give the 3 points back; I assume ESPNs algorithm is not smart enough to do that, so really this game should be more like +5.5 on the neutral field. Plus I think we will get to see if the rumors are true: will Belichick get canned with an L this week?
Joe: Colts.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Houston Texans @ Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
Lucas: Texans Bengals. Okay, I'm something like 2-14 in the early slate the past two weeks. Something's gotta give, so I'm pulling an Adam and going opposite for this part of the schedule. I'm all in on C.J. Stroud, which inevitably means he's gonna have some growing pains this week and Joe Burrow will light the Texans' defense on fire. Also, who knows if the Texans will have a kicker this week besides Dare Ogunbowale.
Adam: Bengals. This is purely a line pick, since if the game is tied a touchdown puts it to 7 and Cincy covers. I am not sure it is ever in that scenario, but that’s my thoughts. Let's go CJ, in CJ we trust. Wow, that was an impressive performance by the Texans last week. But it was against the Bucs; the Bengals will be a touch harder.You've heard of Fat Guy Touchdown?
— Schlasser (@UrinatingTree) November 5, 2023
Wait until you find out about Running Back Field Goal!pic.twitter.com/0nBpMK9QtB
Joe: Bengals.
New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings (+2.5)
Lucas: Vikings Saints. I, to some degree, maintain that the Vikings are frauds even though they've righted the ship after a rough start. And Josh Dobbs proved himself last week, which inevitably means we get a Saints revenge game this week.
Adam: Vikings. Josh “I’m a rocket scientist” Dobbs is unreal. Doesn’t even know his teammates names, HASN’T EVEN TAKEN A SNAP! And comes in to with the game.
Joe: Saints.
Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Lucas: Steelers Packers. I don't freaking know. The Packers did what they were supposed to do in beating a backup quarterback, though it looked ugly at times. This game will be no different. At this point, lets just say I'm going contrary because Tom Grossi got nominated for Fan of the Year by the Packers... and does any other NFL franchise have a fan that hit up 30 NFL stadiums in 30 days and raised half a million dollars for St. Jude?
Beyond grateful to be the Packers NFL Fan of the Year.
— Tom Grossi (@tomgrossicomedy) November 7, 2023
Thank you so much for everyone who nominated me & supported me over the years. #GoPackGo https://t.co/idvX3QbyAE pic.twitter.com/giqwNFB1js
Adam: Steelers. Just taking the home team. Not sure what Green Bay team we will get, nor will we know what Steelers team we will get.
Joe: Steelers.
Tennessee Titans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5)
Lucas: Titans Buccaneers. Gut says Titans, which natually means the Bucs will pull some devil magic out of their butts.
Adam: Buccaneers. Difficult loss last week for the Bucs and Will Levis taking the reins officially going forward, it will be some growing pains even off the extended 10 day break.
Joe: Buccaneers.
San Francisco 49ers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)
Lucas: Jaguars 49ers Jaguars. This might be the one that I go with my gut on, but we'll keep the theme. San Francisco has come back down to earth, which inevitably means they're gonna find a way to win this one by like 7-10 points and start to set up for a stretch run.
Adam: Jaguars. Making a change from my first pass picks. I always make my picks in like 2 minutes just on gut reactions on Tuesday when they come out. I originally picked SF, but man, I cannot get past their slow fade they have had the past few weeks, plus traveling east to face the solid Jags team... tough.
Lucas note: This is a fair point. West coast teams went 0-3 both straight up and against the spread last week. This makes a 5-11 mark for the season against the spread, with just three of those wins coming after Week 1. Eff it, this is the one time I'm making a change while I'm writing stuff after getting Joe and Adam's picks.
Joe: Jaguars.
Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Lucas: Ravens Browns. I said last week I didn't trust the Ravens, and what do they do? Go and freaking blow out the Seahawks. So naturally, I'm leaning them this week, which means I have to go contrary and take the Browns to cover. I look forward to going 0-6 in this time slot this week.
Adam: Ravens. Not much else to say here; I don’t fully trust the Browns and the Ravens always seem to fly under the radar for me and have sneaky good seasons.
Joe: Ravens.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals (+1.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. BAH GAWD THAT'S KYLER MURRAY'S MUSIC!
Joe: Falcons.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Chargers (+1.5)
Lucas: Lions. Off the bye? Why not.
Adam: Lions. Off their bye, the Lions emerge from their den hungry and smoke the Chargers, and LA's defense and special teams do a complete 180 from last week. Though thank you to them for last week; I won my fantasy matchup off their stellar performance. I was down 14 plus my opponent had Breece Hall, so my prospects looked grim at best. Well the Chargers showed up with 8 sacks, 3 takeaways, only 6 points allowed and a punt return touchdown. That's 36 points! I ended up winning by 11. Crazy.
Joe: Lions.
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-16.5)
Lucas: Giants. I just... I can't lay that many in a divisional game, even against the Sentient Derp.
Adam: Giants. This line is so absurd I am going against my gut, logic, and probably everyone else in the country except Lucas apparently. I’m taking the G-Men to cover. And heck, if I am going that far, why not go all in? Giants to win outright and it will officially plung the ClownGirls to become the HeiferLadies.
Joe: Cowboys.
Washington Commanders @ Seattle Seahawks (-6.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. They're due for a bounceback after getting shellacked by the Ravens.
Adam: Seahawks. Lucas, are there any stats about east coast team traveling to the west? In any case, the line seems a touch high, so I probably should take Washington, but I like Seattle to rebound off last week poor effort against the aforementioned sneaky good Ravens.
Lucas note: Quick Google search didn't yield much other than this academic study about night games, which showed a pretty heavy advantage towards the West Coast teams. Bear in mind though that this study is 10 years old and also focuses on night games as opposed to the late afternoon slot.
Joe: Seahawks.
Sunday Night
New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5)
Lucas: Raiders. I'm a little surprised this didn't get flexed, but I don't know who you'd replace this with. Regardless, we'll see the Raider resurgence without Josh McDaniels continue.
Adam: Jets. Just imagine: if A A Ron wasn’t out and the Raiders with Jimmy G were actually good, this would be a decent, maybe even great Sunday Night game. But alas we are not so lucky. Jets just because.
Joe: Jets.
Monday Night
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
Lucas: Bills.
Joe: Bills.
Records So Far
Lucas: 60-76 (6-8 last week)
Adam: 78-58 (9-5 last week)
Joe: 66-70 (9-5 last week)
Geoffrey: 75-61 (9-5 last week)
Jim: 69-67 (8-6 last week)
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