This past week was an "improvement," if you can call it such. I overcame a horrid early slate to at least salvage a mediocre week, but it didn't stop Adam or Joe from taking five of seven disputed games with me, while they split their eight.
You can view how we've picked in comparison to each other here. Hero picks continue to be the story, as Adam split his two this past week to bring his success rate down to 17-6 on the campaign. Joe and I each picked up a hero win this week as well, in what I'm hoping means some regression to the mean in that department.
I'm contemplating pulling an Adam from the 2010's and going opposite week, but apparently there's no need as he and I only disagree on three games, Joe and I on five, and Joe and Adam on four games out of 14. Let's get to it!
Thursday Night
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Lucas: Titans. I don't get either of these teams, but with Will Levis back under center in this one for Tennessee I'll take the points.
Adam: Titans. Will Levis’ ex-girlfriend is probably regretting her decision. Levis for 4 touchdowns. Plus Pittsburgh may be cursed with the Biscuit for this week.
Joe: Titans.
Sunday Morning
Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Lucas: Chiefs. Presuming Mahomes will be healthy this week, anyway. A Flu Game last week was not.
Adam: Chiefs. Bring Back Tay Tay... yeah, I said it. KC needs to get back those 11 points she seems to suck from the Chiefs. No seriously, look at the stats, they score 11 more points when she is in attendance.
Lucas note: Bringing back up the screengrab from a couple weeks ago regarding Kelce's receiving numbers.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons (-4.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Get well soon, Kirk.
Adam: Vikings. Two teams that will have new players under center to start the game. Shoutout to Cousins. Wish it didn’t happen this way, but he is a class act.
Joe: Falcons.
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (-8.5)
Lucas: Browns. I keep taking Arizona, and while I got away with it last week, now that they're openly tanking I'll lay the points with a decent Cleveland team.
Adam: Browns. At home, with Arizona with a new QB under center while awaiting Kyler to return from his year long COD tour.
Joe: Browns.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Lucas: Rams. Why is Green Bay favored? Have the oddsmakers seen no Packer football since like... Week 1?
Adam: Rams. Lucas, this one is for you. In our group chat, I was sharing the packers traded a CB to the Bills and Lucas quipped that he was sad but accepted GB was in the middle of a rebuild. To which I reminded him I am a Bears fan so I know what it means to rebuild. After ’85, the Bears have been in about 35 of the 40 years of rebuilding. Max pain is still a few seasons away. I know it seems hard since you; don’t know what it’s like to not be good, but I just recommend don’t fight it.
Joe: Rams.
Washington Commanders @ New England Patriots (-3.5)
Lucas: Patriots. The tank is on. The haul for Sweat might end up being better than it was for Chase Young, but we'll see.
Adam: Patriots. New England is not good, but Washington just traded like 90% of their defense. Even Mac Jones can look competent.
Joe: Commanders.
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints (-7.5)
Lucas: Saints. Speaking of the above, I don't understand the Sweat trade from Chicago's perspective. At posting time, an extension hadn't been agreed upon, and the only way that trade makes sense is if the Bears extend him. If not... this is just Ryan Poles being an idiot. Yes, it's an upgrade to the pass rush, but in what's essentially a lost year there's a lot more to fix than picking up an expiring edge rusher.
Adam: Saints. Could set up for a late backdoor cover, but I don’t think this is realistically close from the start. Bagent looks competent, and I really thought the Bears were looking to deal Fields. May have been the injury to be honest, but I don’t think we have seen the last of Bagent after this week.
Joe: Saints.
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. I'll go against the trope here; Baltimore is just too up and down for me.
Adam: Ravens. Apparently, they are pretty good, so I’ll give them the nod. Plus West coast traveling to east angle.
Lucas note: So I ran the numbers at least for this season since it came up in multiple places. Teams from the AFC or NFC West playing during the early window are 5-8 against the ESPN spread so far this season, but are just 3-8 since Week 1 and haven't covered since the Rams did so at Indianapolis in Week 4. Interesting side note: the Bears are 2-0 against the spread in this sample (covered against Denver in Week 4, and beat the Raiders outright in Week 7.
Joe: Ravens.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans (-2.5)
Lucas: Texans. Houston has to be due for a bounceback game here.
Adam: Texans. A rebound after giving the Panthers their first Dub.
Joe: Buccaneers.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers (+2.5)
Lucas: Colts. Well Carolina, you got one win. I'm not expecting another.
Adam: Colts. Today, we will get to see the rebirth, phoenix style from the ashes, of Jonathan “The Tractor” Taylor. Taylor for 200 plus three touchdowns. You heard it here first.
Joe: Colts.
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
Lucas: Raiders. YOU'RE FREE, VEGAS!
Adam: Raiders. I am going to call this the “We fired our coach we didn’t like so we will look good” game. Raiders by 10.Please be true https://t.co/bExhiLW6Fg
— ed mathey (@edmathey1) November 2, 2023
Joe: Giants.
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Lucas: Cowboys. I still don't fully trust the Eagles. Taking the points.
Adam: Eagles. Love that nicknames the Dallas Fanboyz have given the Eagles, like "Filthy". Maybe I should combine it with the weird spelling Lucas used earlier this year. Filthy Iggles. Should be a good game.
Joe: Eagles.
Sunday Night
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Lucas: Bengals. Though the Bills' injury report from Wednesday was hilarious.
Adam: Bengals. Cincy is the hot team right now. If you take out their first two games where Burrow should not really have played, you really have a solid season by the Bengals. I’ll do just that and ignore those and say Cincy is better.Wednesday injury report pic.twitter.com/dEH9IJTU1H
— Buffalo Bills PR (@BuffaloBillsPR) November 1, 2023
Joe: Bengals.
Monday Night
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Jets (+3.5)
Lucas: Chargers. We gotta build up the hope before we tear it down.
Adam: Chargers. The Jets won last week in a game they had no business winning.
Joe: Chargers.
Records So Far
Lucas: 54-68 (6-10 last week)
Adam: 69-53 (9-7 last week)
Joe: 57-65 (9-7 last week)
Geoffrey: 66-56 (8-8 last week)
Jim: 61-61 (8-8 last week)
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