The Confessions of a Sportscast Pigskin Pick 'Em contest returns for its 12th season, and with it returns the weekly column with picks against the spread for all 272 regular season games.
And as has been tradition, I can't do this alone. So I'm joined for his tenth season as featured guest by defending champion Adam Quinn. Joe Klecka also returns for another full time appearance with his weekly picks.
Our group is once again joined by old friend of the program Geoffrey Clark, as well as long time group member Jim Haupert. While they will not be featured in the column, their records will appear alongside ours on a weekly basis.
As a refresher, we do this through ESPN's Pigskin Pick 'Em game. We'll make our picks independently of each other, Adam and Joe will send me theirs early in the week, and the column will drop Thursday mornings. Once games are complete I will go through and tabulate numbers with how we've picked in relation to each other. All of that will be available to review in each week's post.
And so as we get ready to start another season, Adam and I disagree on nine games, Joe and I on seven, and Joe and Adam on six games out of 16. Let's get started!
Thursday Night
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Lucas: Lions. I usually feel like these primetime openers are tighter than you'd expect. Given the Lions have some expectations this year, combined with the injury news about Travis Kelce, I'll take the points in the opener.
Adam: Lions. My gut reaction here is the Lions cover easily. Both the offense and defense may be the best the Lions have ever had in my lifetime. I’ll nod the early season cap to them.
Joe: Chiefs.
Sunday, Early Afternoon
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)
Lucas: Falcons. Taking the home team in what's essentially a pick 'em. And generally I feel a little more optimistic regarding the Falcons than I do the Panthers.
Adam: Panthers. Maybe I am missing something about Atlanta; seems to be my MO to overlook them especially in the later Matty Ice era. And don’t get me wrong, Carolina is not a good team, but I like them more than Atlanta.
Joe: Falcons.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
Lucas: Bengals. I'm looking forward to bringing this back a bunch this year.
Adam: Browns. With Burrow recovering from the early preseason injury and Watson coming into a full preseason after many many months off for obvious reasons, I just like him coming back. He has something to prove, he is the $250+M man after all.
Joe: Bengals.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (+4.5)
Lucas: Jaguars. Coming off not only a playoff berth, but winning a playoff game, Duval has a bright future this season.
Adam: Jaguars. I am chalking this line up to the expectation that Taylor would be playing. Now that he is not, and the whale has passed, the line looks like a cupcake of a joke.
Joe: Jaguars.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings (-6.5)
Lucas: Vikings. I feel dirty. I maintain that the 2022 Vikings were frauds and they will come back down to earth in close games in 2023... but it's not happening this week. Not with honoring the late Bud Grant.
Adam: Vikings. Now that A A Ron is out of the NFC North, an argument could be made that, at least this year, Cousins is the best QB in the North. Plus who is the QB for TB, do they even have any players? I don’t trust any of them in fantasy anyway so I don’t know any of their names.
Lucas note: Their Week 1 starter I think is *checks notes* Baker Mayfield? Do with that information what you will.
Joe: Vikings.
Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Lucas: Titans. I don't really like either of these teams for 2023, but I'll ride the Euphoric Violet Gazelle against all comers for now.
Adam: Saints. I really like this line here. I think it is one of the few games where there hasn’t been much with injuries or camp holdouts that materially impacted the game, though I bet Lucas will point out the obvious one I forgot about, lol. But in any case, I like NoLa at home in week 1.
Lucas note: Darnell Greene would like a word. No Alvin Kamara for 3 weeks.
Joe: Saints.
San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5)
Lucas: 49ers. I dunno that Stillersgahntasuperbowl, especially not based off of Week 1.
Adam: Steelers. Call this an overreaction to the Niners moving on from Lance and going with the services of Purdy and the ghost watcher (sorry, really old joke, but it makes me laugh every time I think about it). But I don’t think either is going to amount to much, which is an immediate downgrade for fantasy for pretty much all the players. Plus when was the last time Pitt has a losing season?
Lucas note: Never under Tomlin, which is kind of amazing. As much as we crap on Tomlin and the Steelers, the floor is pretty high.
Joe: 49ers.
Arizona Cardinals @ Washington Commanders (-5.5)
Lucas: Commanders. A live look at the desert:
Adam: Commanders. Ahem... ladies and gentlemen, the Cardinals are what a dumpster fire's dumpster fire would look like. And that may be generous.
Joe: Commanders.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Lucas: Texans. I like Baltimore to win here, but maybe not by that much. Taking the points.
Adam: Ravens. I am slightly hesitant to take this line so early in the year, but Jackson has arguably the best offensive weapons he has ever had, and Stroud did not look that sharp in the preseason, so it may take a game or two.
Joe: Ravens.
Sunday, Late Afternoon
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-1.5)
Lucas: Packers. I'm not apologizing.
Adam: Bears. This game is truly a toss-up. I know many people in my points survivor league will be taking the Bears for 32 points hoping they come out on top but I need to see it first. Don’t get me wrong, the Bears will be light-years better than last year, and I have Fields in one of my FFL teams. I am taking the Bears because duh, but I am not confident in it.
Joe: Bears.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Lucas: Raiders. Broncos Country, let's ride... maybe out of the basement? Maybe not right away.
Adam: Broncos. This will be the test for me to see if Russ is cooking or not. I am going to chalk last year up to the wrong coach for the wrong QB, so let's see what Payton can do. I think it could be good, really good.
Joe: Raiders.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots (+4.5)
Lucas: Eagles. Recent history has not been kind to the previous season's Super Bowl loser... but I think the Eagles can buck that trend.
Adam: Eagles. How is Mac Jones still a QB in this league? Eagles take a baby step back, but still light up the scoreboard all season and repeat as NFC East champs.
Joe: Eagles.
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I'm gonna reference back to their anime schedule release a bunch this season, but not yet this week. For now, I think they start slow.
Adam: Dolphins. A good game all around, and could go either way. I’ll take Tua/Hill/Waddle over Herbert/Allen/Ekeler. But the million dollar question will be how long will Tua stays healthy this year. Seriously, even one more concussion and his NFL career is over IMO.
Joe: Chargers.
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
Lucas: Seahawks. The Rams' strategy of "Eff them picks, we got a Super Bowl" continues.
Adam: Seahawks. Once again Mrs. Stafford stirs drama by throwing things around. OK, maybe not pretzels this time, but she was slinging the locker room talk on her podcast. Better question: who listens to an NFL players wife’s podcast?
Lucas note: You know what podcast you should listen to? Then There Were Two: A History of the World Series, hosted by yours truly and Geoffrey Clark. Our 1980 Episode will likely drop Friday, and in the interim you can listen to my crappy a capella version of Pittsburgh's anthem in 1979. [/shamelessplug]
Joe: Seahawks.
Sunday Night
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (+2.5)
Lucas: Giants. Adam, over/under of Week 6 on when we change to Heiferladies?
Adam: Cowboys. Oh Jerra, the master of How to Piss Off My Players 101. Trade for a starting-caliber QB the year before the start of a possible negotiation season for the other starting QB. Stock Jerra. But hey, we will all get to see the 18th best QB in the NFL... he is only saved by the stacked offensive weapons and good O line.
Lucas note: Starting the Dak slander right away in Week 1... and I am here for it. Let's laugh at this one more time before the season starts.
Joe: Cowboys.
Monday Night
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (+1.5)
Lucas: Bills. I will probably regret going with some many road favorites in division, given the below from Todd Fuhrman, but screw it. I'm not sure what to make of the Jets this early. All I know is I miss Aaron.
TRENDING...NFL Version
— Todd Fuhrman (@ToddFuhrman) September 6, 2023
Since the start of 2012, home dogs in divisional matchups Week 1 are 15-2-1 ATS (88%) & 10-6-2 SU (61%)
The 4 home underdogs in divisional matchups this week are the most in any season since 2010 (6)
(via @CBSSportsHQ )
Adam: Jets. Last minute change. You could call it *looks left* *looks right* a no look change... lol, “No Look Pass!” “No Look!”
Joe: Jets.
Records Last Year
Lucas: 127-144
Adam: 131-140
Joe: 128-143
Geoffrey: 119-152
Jim: 128-143
Tom: 124-147
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