Saturday, July 22, 2017

MLB Tournament of Champions: NL Wild Card Series

The postseason of the MLB Tournament of Champions is in full swing as we wrap up the Wild Card Round of the Elimination Stage!

This round is taking a little longer to determine than it would in the actual Major League Baseball postseason because this is a tournament to try to find the greatest team of all time... or at least since 1965. As such, I made this round a best of three instead of a winner take all game. I want to minimize the factor that luck has in determining the winner.

We move over in the National League, where the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, a team I didn't think would really play too much of a factor in this tournament, find themselves as the top Wild Card. They were in the mix all through April and by May had pretty much cemented themselves in second place in the Central division, but were pretty much constantly within striking distance of the division title for the next two months until the 2016 Cubs pulled away. But the Reds locked up a Wild Card fairly quickly after the division was lost, and they have home field advantage in this round.

They'll take on the 1998 San Diego Padres, who struggled for a significant chunk of April before finding their way. San Diego even spent a little time in first place in the West, but wasn't much of a threat for a Wild Card until near the end of the regular season when the 1986 Mets were collapsing, and the Padres swept their final regular season series to grab that second spot. During the regular season, the teams split their six games, with the road team winning every matchup.

So these teams will now play a best-of-three series, with the Reds getting home field advantage due to a better record. That home field advantage will play out in a 1-2 format, with the first game in San Diego and Game 2 (and 3 if necessary) being played in Cincy. I gave all the teams a few days between the end of the regular season and the postseason to allow for some time to set up their starting rotations, which is the only pitching-related issue I can control.

I will also be keeping stats during postseason play with the intent of naming an All Tournament Team when it's all said and done. You can keep track of those stats, both by series and in aggregate, here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get the playoffs started!

Wednesday, July 19th

Game 1
'75 CIN 15, @ '98 SD 2
W: Gullett (1-0) | L: Smith (0-1)

The Reds put the pressure on right from the get-go in Game 1. Joe Morgan was hit by a pitch in the top of the first and came around to score on an RBI double by George Foster, though the damage was limited by Steve Finley throwing out Johnny Bench at the plate (with an assist from Quilvio Veras). Cincinnati went back to it in the second, with Cesar Geronimo hitting a two out solo home run, starter Don Gullett singling and coming home on an RBI double by Pete Rose. The Reds put it out of reach in the third with an eight run outburst that included a two run single by Gullet that knocked San Diego starter Pete Smith out of the game, and back to back jacks by Morgan and Bench. Jim Leyritz got the Padres on the board in the bottom half of the inning with a pinch hit two run shot, but Cincinnati completed the scoring with four more in the fifth, and the Padres never really threatened the rest of the way.

Gullett threw seven innings allowing two runs on four hits, walking one and striking out four. Rose, Bench, Tony Perez, and Ken Griffey, Sr. each had three hits, with Morgan and Bench each driving in three runs and homering, while Cesar Geronimo also added a home run. Pete Smith lasted just 2 2/3 innings, allowing eight runs on nine hits, Jim Leyritz had the aforementioned two run home run, and Wally Joyner had two of San Diego's five hits.

Friday, July 21st

Game 2
'98 SD 5, @ '75 CIN 1
W: Brown (1-0) | L: Kirby (0-1) | SV: Hoffman (1)

San Diego got off to a good start in Game 2, with Quilvio Veras singling to start the game and the Padres manufactured a way to get him home and take the early 1-0 lead. The Reds responded int he bottom half of the first with a pair of doubles, with George Foster knocking home Pete Rose to tie the game. The top of San Diego's order came to life again in the third, as after Veras tripled to lead off the frame, Wally Joyner launched a two run shot to retake the lead. Greg Vaughn doubled and would come around on Tony Gwynn's two-bagger to make it 4-1. Meanwhile Padres ace Kevin Brown got into a groove, allowing base runners in nearly every inning but always getting out of it. Vaughn hit a solo home run in the top of the ninth to make it 5-1, and Brown was pulled with two outs and two on in the bottom half for Trevor Hoffman to finish it off and force a winner-take-all Game 3.

Brown went 8 2/3 innings for San Diego, allowing just one run and scattering 10 hits while walking just one and striking out six. The Padres pounded out 14 hits, eight of them for extra bases, as the top five hitters in the order all had at least two hits, paced by three from Veras.

Saturday, July 22nd

Game 3
@ '75 CIN 7, '98 SD 3
W: Norman (1-0) | L: Ashby (0-1)

Once again the road team struck right away, as Quilvio Veras singled to lead off the game and came around to score on a Tony Gwynn ground rule double, though that was all the Padres could manage. The Reds tied it in the second on a solo shot by Tony Perez, but they also squandered an opportunity to add more. The Padres retook the lead in the top of the third with a Greg Vaughn solo homer, and this time it took the Reds until the fifth to tie the game, with Pete Rose walking and scoring on a Johnny Bench double. Carlos Hernandez launched a solo home run in the top of the seventh to give the Padres a 3-2 lead, but this time the Reds didn't wait to strike back. Pinch hitter Dan Dreissen drew a walk, Pete Rose singled, and after a fielder's choice by Joe Morgan, the Reds got the carousel going, with five straight batters singling home a run and moving the runner at first to third, the first of which knocked Padres starter Andy Ashby out of the game. The Padres would not threaten the rest of the way, and the Reds win the NL Wild Card Series.

Bench and Perez each knocked in two runs for the Reds to give Fred Norman a win after he went seven innings allowing three runs on four hits, walking four but striking out 10. Perez finished the day 3-4, also scoring two runs partially thanks to his solo home run. Gwynn had two hits for the Padres, including a double, Vaughn hit his second home run of the postseason, and Ashby pitched well for six innings before falling apart, finishing with a line of 6 1/3 innings allowing five runs on seven hits, walking four and striking out five.

To see the updated bracket, click here.

Congratulations to the 1975 Cincinnati Reds, who advance to the National League Division Series! That series will begin on Monday, but the Reds will have their hands full as they will take on the best team in the regular season in the 2016 Chicago Cubs.

With the AL Wild Card Series already wrapped up, that's it for this round. Check back next week as I'll go series by series with a look at the next round!

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