I'm excited for the season to get underway, as after a few dismal years on the north side of Chicago, there's an elite team playing at Clark and Addison. I'll have more on them in a few days.
As is my tradition, I will do a division a day, alternating leagues and ending with the division containing the defending champion. This year, with the champions coming out of the Central, I have to start on one coast or the other, and this year I'm opting for the west coast. Let's take a look at the NL West.
1. San Francisco Giants
Last year: 84-78 (2nd in NL West), Missed playoffs; 1 win below COAS Prediction
First and foremost, this is an even year, which means the Giants are dangerous. They're especially dangerous in the rotation, with Madison Bumgerner backed up by free agent acquisitions Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, along with holdovers Jake Peavy and Matt Cain. Their lineup is also all the more ridiculous with the addition of Denard Span to play center field and hit leadoff and set the table for a very dangerous lineup. Not everyone agrees, but they're my favorite for the division.
2016 Prediction: 95-67
Last year: 92-70 (1st in NL West), Lost in NLDS; 2 wins above COAS Prediction
Here's the big thing: losing Zach Greinke hurts a bit, so they're going to need guys like Scott Kazmir and rookie Zach Lee to step up behind Clayton Kershaw, who was excellent last year but finished third in Cy Young voting, in the rotation. There's potential in the lineup, and I'm most interested to see if Joc Pederson can improve on a relatively subpar rookie season. With veterans like Justin Turner, Yasiel Puig and Adrian Gonzalez to protect him though, it shouldn't be too bad. The Dodgers will smell October baseball again for Vin Scully's sake, but I don't know how deep a run is in the cards.
2016 Prediction: 89-73, Wild Card
Last year: 79-83 (3rd in NL West), Missed playoffs; 15 wins above COAS Prediction
The aforementioned Zach Greinke defected to the desert and has a team that I vastly underestimated in 2015 at least in the mix for 2016. Adding Shelby Miller as the #2 starter will also help. If enough of the supporting cast in guys like Chris Owings, A.J. Pollock, and Yasmany Tomas can step up to help perennial MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt, the D-Backs can do more than top .500: they could challenge the Dodgers for a playoff spot.
2016 Prediction: 85-77
Last year: 74-88 (4th in NL West), Missed playoffs; 10 wins below COAS Prediction
I kind of whiffed here too, but in my defense, so did everyone else. The Padres had a loud offseason going into 2015 but struggled mightily, and I'm not entirely sold on what remains with this team. Tyson Ross should combine with James Shields and Andrew Cashner for a solid top of the rotation, but there are some question marks there still, and the lineup poses some questions. Wil Myers has a lot of potential, and there were some good additions in Jon Jay and Alexei Ramirez, but I'm not convinced it's going to be enough in this division.
2016 Prediction: 75-87
Last year: 68-94 (5th in NL West), Missed playoffs; 3 wins below COAS Prediction
This is clearly a team in the middle of a rebuild. There are some good pieces in place with Carlos Gonzalez in the heart of the order and Nolan Arenado playing stellar defense at third base while providing a solid bat, but after that I'm just not sold. When Jorge De La Rosa is your projected Opening Day starter, you know your team isn't very good. It could be a long year in the mountains.
2016 Prediction: 65-97
No comments:
Post a Comment