After starting out west, I'm doing my third of six previews with the division containing the National League champion from 2015. It's an interesting division with a couple sexy teams followed up by a couple teams that are clearly still in rebuilding mode. Let's take a look at the NL East.
1. New York Mets
Last year: 90-72 (1st in NL East), Lost in World Series; 16 wins above COAS PredictionAll the Mets did after surprising me with a pennant last year was add to an already ridiculous core. Neil Walker is probably an upgrade over Daniel Murphy (Cub killing from the NLCS notwithstanding), and the Mets were able to retain Yoenis Cespedes, though we'll see how long he lasts in center field. Of course, that part might not matter a ton when you have arguably the best rotation in the majors, made even more terrifying by the fact that they're all young. If this group stays healthy, they're going to be a favorite to return to the World Series.
2016 Prediction: 92-70
Last year: 83-79 (2nd in NL East), Missed playoffs; 14 wins below COAS Prediction
Swap out Denard Span for Ben Revere, and you basically have the 2015 Nationals. There's some solid pieces at the top of this rotation in Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, and you have the the reigning MVP in Bryce Harper, but what about the supporting cast? You're relying on Ryan Zimmerman, who's 31, and Jayson Werth, 37, to help protect Harper in the lineup. Daniel Murphy may help with that a little bit, but while the Nationals will be competitive again, I don't think they make the playoffs.
2016 Prediction: 87-75
Last year: 71-91 (3rd in NL East), Missed playoffs; 13 wins below COAS Prediction
The biggest advantage for Miami this year is health: Jose Fernandez is back, as is Giancarlo Stanton. Fernandez made just 11 starts in 2015 while Stanton missed 88 games due to injury. Their return alone bumps the Marlins up a little bit, as will the continued development of Christian Yelich. If Dee Gordon gets on base at a good clip ahead of him and the rotation other than Fernandez and Wei-Yin Chen steps up, this team could find itself playing meaningful September baseball... you know, as long as Jeff Loria doesn't go into fire sale mode like the scumbag he is.
2016 Prediction: 79-83
Last year: 63-99 (5th in NL East), Missed playoffs; 2 wins above COAS Prediction
Ryan Howard is really the only holdover from the really good Phillies teams of recent memory, and otherwise there's just a ton of youth on this team that is unproven. Jeremy Hellickson and second year man Aaron Nola headline the rotation, and while these guys are decent, I wouldn't peg either one as a bona fide ace. Even so, this is a year to see what the Phillies have more so than anything else.
2016 Prediction: 68-94
Last year: 67-95 (4th in NL East), Missed playoffs; 8 wins below COAS Prediction
There are some good pieces here. Freddie Freeman is a good first baseman, Nick Markakis is a solid big leaguer, and Ender Inciarte will do a good job at the top of the order. The rest of the team isn't that impressive. Julio Teheran is a decent #1 starter, but the rotation behind him is iffy, and I'm not crazy about the supporting cast around Freeman and company. It's going to be a rough final year at Turner Field.
2016 Prediction: 64-98
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