Confessions of a Probably Horribly Off Mock Drafter

I've been writing for COAS since September of 2011, and have done NFL picks for the past two seasons. The one thing I haven't done yet? Actually trying to do a mock draft.

Honestly, trying to predict how a draft will go is one of the biggest crapshoots in sports. But that hasn't stopped countless people from trying to guess what players will go in what order. The tops of drafts more often than not go as planned, but as you go deeper, you start to have a harder time pegging stuff.

None of this is going to stop me from trying. What follows is the official COAS NFL Mock Draft. To track everything, I used the ESPN Draft Machine. If you want to throw together a last-minute mock, you can go to that page to do so. Let's get started. As a foreword, I'm not making any trades here, so each team will pick with the picks they have going into Radio City Music Hall tonight.

1. Houston Texans: Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina). Pretty much the consensus best player in the draft. Houston is also in need of a quarterback, but I don't see anyone good enough to take number one. So when you can pair a freak of nature (regardless of what you say about his work ethic) with another defensive lineman who is also a freak of nature... look out.
2. St. Louis Rams: Jake Matthews (OT, Texas A&M). Prevailing opinion around the Rams is the need for some protection for Sam Bradford. Some people are thinking that they may need a quarterback, but again, I think it's too soon. I was tempted to pull the trigger on Sammy Watkins here, but the Rams do have Tavon Austin as a major weapon, and I'd say trench warfare is more needed today.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Khalil Mack (OLB, Buffalo). Jacksonville has so many needs, it's almost not even funny. There are still a lot of possibilities here, but Mack is one of the best players in the draft, and this will give the Jaguar defense a much-needed lift.
4. Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel (QB, Texas A&M). I'm going to be honest. I think Manziel is overrated. He's obviously very talented, but I think maturity is an issue and I don't know how good of a pocket passer he is. He'd be going to a team in this case with one of the top receivers in the league, but then again... it's Cleveland. This seems both like something they'd do, yet it also kind of makes sense. I think it's too high to pick him, but we'll see how it turns out.
5. Oakland Raiders: Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson). This is, of course, assuming Oakland makes a smart pick with the best receiver in the draft still on the board (old friend, former WONC boss and current 670 The Score producer Nick Shepkowski has no faith in the Raiders). With Matt Schaub in the fold, he would get a new toy to work with in making the transition a little more comfortable.
6. Atlanta Falcons: Greg Robinson (OT, Auburn). Matt Ryan was under duress for much of 2013, and that might have been partially why the Falcons fell so far from the year before. Adding the #1A offensive tackle to the mix fills a major hole and gets the Falcons back in the right direction of where they need to go.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M). Some rumors have been going around that the Bucs will draft a quarterback, but with Mike Glennon doing a decent job last year, plus their pickup of Josh McCown, they're probably okay here this year. Instead, they need some weaponry, and Mike Evans is one of the top receivers in the draft. He goes here to be the third Aggie to go in the first seven picks. Wow.
8. Minnesota Vikings: Blake Bortles (QB, Central Florida). I think at this point, we can probably say that Christian Ponder was a swing and miss. Matt Cassel is around still, but it doesn't hurt to start grooming a future guy, and Bortles needs some grooming. Having him learn for a bit under Cassel to take over, say, next year wouldn't be a bad thing and might give the Vikings a truly balanced attack they've lacked since Favre's first season in purple.
9. Buffalo Bills: Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh). Buffalo is rumored to want to trade up, but I'm assuming they can't pull the trigger. At this point, their major linebacker help is gone. But with the recent arrest of Marcell Dareus, they need help up front, especially when you consider that they were near the bottom in rushing yards allowed per game. Donald will probably help with that.
10. Detroit Lions: Darqueze Dennard (CB, Michigan State). Detroit has a lot of offensive firepower, so some help in the back of their defense is a need here. Safety might be a possibility, but I'm taking a local star to help shore up the pass defense in Dennard. The 6'0" corner might not be as talented as guys like Justin Gilbert or Kyle Fuller, but the Spartan defense was unbelievable at the end of last season except in the Death to the BCS Playoffs.
11. Tennessee Titans: Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina). There's still a lot of talent left on the offensive line and a couple other positions, but with Ken Whisenhunt being a former tight end, he can probably make this work as long as the Titans get decent production at the quarterback position. (Okay, maybe I stole this pick from Paul Kuharsky. I've attributed it. Sue me.)
12. New York Giants: Taylor Lewan (OT, Michigan). Eli was sacked 39 times last season. Add in the sack Curtis Painter took, and that's two and a half sacks per game the G-Men suffered. They need help on the line, and Lewan is one of the best still on the board. It works out on both fronts.
13. St. Louis Rams: Odell Beckham, Jr (WR, LSU). The Rams addressed the protection issue already with the second pick, and looking through numbers, I feel like Bradford might need another weapon. While I thought about adding another lineman, we'll go with one of the better wideouts still on the board in Beckham.
14. Chicago Bears: Calvin Pryor (S, Louisville). Had I not sent Aaron Donald to Buffalo, I'd probably send him here. The Bears had a major problem with their pass rush last year, which might have been part of why their secondary was so awful. They added some safeties in free agency, but they still have Chris Conte (LOL) on the roster. Adding Pryor will be a major piece to help revamp a defense that has gone downhill in recent years.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers: Ryan Shazier (OLB, Ohio State). The Steelers defense has gone downhill as well in recent years, and it seems like pass rush is where they need some help. There might be some argument for UCLA's Anthony Barr here, but ESPN has Shazier higher rated, and Ohio State has a decent history with linebackers (AJ Hawk of the Packers has been serviceable in his career).
16. Dallas Cowboys: Kyle Fuller (CB, Virginia Tech). Remember Matt Flynn leading a fantastic comeback last December? That was fun. So yeah, Dallas needs help on defense. They're out DeMarcus Ware now and that hurts their pass rush, so while I'm tempted to go with someone like Anthony Barr, I'm going to go with one of the best available in Fuller to help their back end. Their pass defense was awful, after all.
17. Baltimore Ravens: Zach Martin (OT, Notre Dame). Talk out of Baltimore has the Ravens desperately needing a lineman. Somehow, I had Martin, who is one of the top guys in this class, falling this far. Giving Flacco some protection will help the Super Bowl XLVII champs get another shot to get back to the postseason.
18. New York Jets: Brandin Cooks (WR, Oregon State). A lot of Jets fans want the team to trade up and grab Beckham, but I have him gone already. Cooks is also a big-play receiver and should help give this team some weapons. Rex may want defense with some good pieces still out there, but the team goes offense first.
19. Miami Dolphins: Morgan Moses (OT, Virginia). This may be a hunch, but the Dolphins probably need some help on the offensive line. I mean, it's not like they had a major scandal or anything last year. Moses might be a bit of a reach here, but he fills a major need for Miami.
20. Arizona Cardinals: CJ Mosley (ILB, Alabama). Arizona needs line help on the offensive side, though things were better last year than the year before, and they have Jonathan Cooper back from injury. They might need linebacker help with rumors of a Daryl Washington suspension looming. The fact that Mosley has fallen this far is kind of amazing. Either that, or I suck at mock drafts.
21. Green Bay Packers: Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (S, Alabama). Green Bay's pass defense the last couple of years... ick. I seriously thought about grabbing Justin Gilbert to bolster the cornerback group, but the Packers' more pressing need is at safety. Clinton-Dix has fallen a ways here to where he can fit a major hole for the Packers and maybe then keep Micah Hyde at cornerback. Then again, if Gilbert is still here and the Pack takes him, I'd be thrilled too.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Marqise Lee (WR, USC). With Desean Jackson bailing on Chip Kelly and the Eagles, they need a replacement. If they don't try to trade up to grab one of the top receivers, Lee would probably be a decent fit here. That he's one of the best available still makes this pick even better.
23. Kansas City Chiefs: Justin Gilbert (CB, Oklahoma State). I can't credibly let him fall any further. I did think a bit about Teddy Bridgewater here given some possible issues with Alex Smith here, but in a division where you have to deal with Peyton Manning twice, you need all the help you can get.
24. Cincinnati Bengals: Jason Verrett (CB, TCU). Bengals fans and experts all agree that corner is a desperate need for this team. The consensus top guys are all gone, and Verrett might be a tad of a reach here, it fills their top need, so this would probably be the direction they go.
25. San Diego Chargers: Louis Nix III (DT, Notre Dame). Okay, I'm stealing another pick, this one from ESPN's Eric D. Williams. While the Chargers gave up quite a few passing yards, they also allowed a lot of yards per carry. Pair Nix up with old teammate Manti Te'o and the Chargers D can be shored up a bit.
26. Cleveland Browns: Bradley Roby (CB, Ohio State). Cleveland has more holes still, and corners have been coming off the board like crazy at this point. I'm not super crazy about the wideouts left, so I'm going with more corner depth for someone to line up across from Joe Haden.
27. New Orleans Saints: Davante Adams (WR, Fresno State). Brees is starting to lose some weaponry, so I'm going with one of the better receivers available. Lance Moore's departure creates a need, and Adams had a monster 2013. Joining one of the NFL's elite quarterbacks should give him a good rookie year.
28. Carolina Panthers: Anthony Barr (OLB, UCLA). I've teased Barr a little bit in prior picks, and I'll finally pull him off the board here. Carolina's defense was a big reason why they won the NFC South last year, and Barr will add a major piece to that defense. They need more help at wideout, but there's a lot of guys still left that they can get later.
29. New England Patriots: Timmy Jernigan (DT, Florida State). Vince Wilfork got hurt last year for the Pats, yet they were still in the AFC Championship game. I seem to rememer Jernigan getting a fair amount of buzz coming into the draft, but he's down the board a bit. Plug him in there under Darth Hoodie and the Pats might be in decent shape again next year.
30. San Francisco 49ers: Cody Latimer (WR, Indiana). Indiana with a first round pick? Whodathunkit? Kaepernick probably wouldn't complain about having a 6'2" target to line up opposite Michael Crabtree in hopes of avoiding Richard Sherman this season. They need corner help still, but Latimer has dropped a bit from what some are projecting him at.
31. Denver Broncos: Stan Jean-Baptiste (CB, Nebraska). The Broncos addressed some problems on the front of their defense, now they address something on the back end. Jean-Baptiste isn't one of the top guys, but he should be good enough to help Denver get better on that side of the ball.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Xavier Su'a-Filo (G, UCLA). This is probably the biggest weakness on the defending Super Bowl champs. Su'a-Filo is the top guard in the draft, and I would say the end of Round 1 is the best spot for him. There are still some good defensive linemen available, and a few decent quarterbacks still remain, but I'm going with need and some value.

The odds of me perfectly nailing the first round? Pretty much zero. Amount of picks I get right? I'd say maybe... eight, tops. We'll see how it goes. You can see my picks compared to ESPN's SportsNation and one of their experts here.

One of the things that makes me sad: I looked into players in the draft by school. Sadly, there are no North Central guys on here. But there are no Wheaton guys either, so I guess that's okay.

Draft starts at 7:00 Central time. Good luck to your team on the best day of the offseason!