The NFL season is moving pretty quickly already. We're 2 weeks into the season and we have a record 20 teams sitting at 1-1 so far. I was hoping last week I'd get to do a running diary of watching the game with Nathaniel, but laptop difficulties prevented it. Instead, go back to last week on my Twitter feed and read through some of my commentary if you want some mild amusement. We differ on 9 games, which is always a good thing to see a difference of opinion. While you can project a team's record pretty well it's not easy to pick week by week with sustained success, so I'll take a 19 win start to my year. It also put me ahead Waddle and Silvy... and the few other ESPN staff that are picking in their pool.
Anyway, below are my and Nathaniel's picks for Week 3 of the NFL season.
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (+1.5)
Lucas: Panthers. When I first drafted this I picked the Giants but changed it after looking at injury reports. Let's see... missing your top running back, offensive lineman and 2 wideouts, plus needing to get the closest homeless guys off the street to play cornerback... sweet Carolina.
Nathaniel: Panthers. Every year, it seems like the Giants' defense
consists of a lights-out front four and a back seven consisting of
homeless people they found off the street. The trend seems to be
continuing in 2012. Happy hunting, Cam.
St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears (-7.5)
Lucas: Rams. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Bears win at home, but that Bears O-line. Also Jimmy McMillan is very persuasive.
Nathaniel: Bears. The more important question, obviously, is this: WHAT
DO YOU THINK JAY CUTLER'S BODY LANGUAGE WILL BE LIKE, YOU GUYS? It's a
proven fact that he's going to smirk and/or roll his eyes a combined
total of 2,500 times during the game whether they win or lose, so let's
all just accept that and move on.
Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)
Lucas: Bills. Even their subpar defense should contain Brandon Weeden… right?
Nathaniel: Browns. Too much of the Bills' offense right now is revolving
around C.J. Spiller averaging ten yards a carry. And hey, the Browns
have been pretty competitive in their first two games (how, we'll never
know). Let's give 'em a go.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Lucas: Buccaneers. I know it’s in
Dallas, but the Bucs have some good things to build off of after last
week’s narrow loss. They don’t win, but they do cover.
Nathaniel: Cowboys. Will Greg Schiano order his troops to bum rush the
kneeldown this week if they're down by twenty? I have a feeling we're
going to find out.
Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)
Lucas: Lions. Maybe this week is the
week Chris Johnson gets off his lazy butt and does something, given that
Detroit isn’t great on defense. But then again, it is Jake Locker, and I
would think the Stafford to Megatron connection gets
back on track this week.
Nathaniel: Lions. Chris Johnson begins his impossible task of trying to
improve on his 1.1 yards per carry average. $53.5 million well spent, if
you were to ask me!
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Lucas: Colts. Andrew Luck is at home and playing against Blaine Gabbert and the Jags? This might be my lock of the week.
Nathaniel: Colts. Luck over Gabbert. Literally the only rationale I can think of.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)
Lucas: Dolphins. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but with Darelle Revis’ health in question, I think Miami can cover.
Nathaniel: Jets. I'm fairly certain Rex Ryan would kill himself if his
defense gave up half the points the Dolphins put on the Raiders last
week. Well okay, so scoring 17.5 points is technically impossible, but
you catch my drift, I think.
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (+7.5)
Lucas: 49ers. Sorry, Christian Ponder.
You’ve taken some good steps, but you’re going to have to be relied on
to beat San Fran’s secondary since AP will likely not be much of a
factor against their stout run D. Even at the Dome, I think
San Fran wins by double digits.
Nathaniel: 49ers. The moment you've been waiting for all year has
finally come, San Francisco: you've finally earned my respect!
Congratulations! That should really mean a lot coming from someone who's
14-18 in these picks so far.
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)
Lucas: Saints. They’ve got to win
sometime, and when you’re hosting arguably the worst team in the league…
I’m going for this one. But I had to think about it.
Nathaniel: Saints. A get-well gift comes at just the right time for the
Saints. The only silver lining for Kansas City so far this year? They
somehow started even WORSE last year. Remember those 41-7 and 48-3
losses to Buffalo and Detroit? They must be taking this song too literally.
Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (-3.5)
Lucas: Bengals. The Redskins are going
to sorely miss Orakpo and Carriker. This will temper the team’s
expectations for this year a bit, and it hurts starting with this one as
Andy Dalton and company get back on track.
Nathaniel: Redskins. If the first two games are any indicator of the way
the Bengals are going play defensively this year (and now that I've
written this, they probably won't), then RGIII is going to have a
remarkably fun day. Even better than the day he shot all those Subway
commercials, if you can imagine.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)
Lucas: Cardinals. I think this game
gets too close to take the Eagles at this line, especially since the
Cardinals went into Foxboro and stole a game from the Patriots last
week. Vick’s turnovers come back to bite him this time (I said
the same thing last week, but still.)
Nathaniel: Eagles. Both teams are sporting MUCH-better-than-expected
defenses in 2012. Unfortunately, only one of these teams is starting
Kevin Kolb.
Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers (-2.5)
Lucas: Chargers. I’d go with the
Falcons normally, but I think Michael Turner going over 90 miles an hour
while drunk serves as a distraction this week.
Nathaniel: Falcons. It's so shocking to see the Chargers with an
honest-to-God WINNING record in September that you almost have to assume
that regression to the mean is going to set in some point. If my
calculations are correct, then, the Falcons should win this game 77-3
and Philip Rivers is going to throw eight interceptions.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (+1.5)
Lucas: Broncos. Houston hasn’t really
been tested yet, and Peyton is looking to rebound after a rough start in
Atlanta on Monday.
Nathaniel: Broncos. Did you know that the Texans and Broncos are the two
teams that have allowed the fewest yards per play defensively thus far
(4.1)? Now you do! Of course, the Broncos held the above-average
offenses of Pittsburgh and Atlanta to that figure while the Texans
feasted on the pu-pu platter of Miami and Jacksonville. Prove it against
Peyton for me, Houston.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+4.5)
Lucas: Steelers. Pittsburgh can’t seem
to run the ball yet, but maybe facing the defense that allowed Reggie
Bush to relive his days of getting free stuff will be a good remedy.
Nathaniel: Steelers. Gotta tell ya, they should definitely have an
old-timers game featuring the stars from both great '70s teams play
beforehand. I want to see how far Terry Bradshaw can still throw a
football! I want to see if Mean Joe Greene still takes a liking to
smashing Jim Otto's testicles! I want to see how many women 66-year-old
Kenny Stabler carouses with before and after the game! Make it happen,
NFL.
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Lucas: Ravens.When in doubt go with the home team. It’s the regular season;
I think Joe Flacco bounces back and Ray Rice gets re-involved in the
offense. If not I’m losing this matchup. Give the man the ball,
Harbaugh!
Nathaniel: Patriots. While both teams lost last week, one of them lost
because they got shredded through the air (granted, when the other team
wasn't handing the ball over to them). The other lost because Zoltan
Mesko had a punt blocked. As long as the Ravens don't mess with the
Zoltan, I'm liking New England.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
Lucas: Packers. The prospect of going
to the most inhospitable stadium in the league made this a tough pick,
but the line is only 3.5. Green Bay can beat that. They have MVP Tim Masthay! Screw that Rodgers guy and his
122 passer rating last year!
Nathaniel: Seahawks. Playing a hunch here. The Packers looked out of
sync offensively in their first two games at Lambeau; a Monday Night
game against a top-ten defense in the toughest outdoor environment in
the league isn't exactly the easiest time or place to work yourself back
into shape...
Records so far:
Lucas: 19-13, 10-6 last week
Nathaniel: 14-18, 8-8 last week
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