The rules of this are pretty simple; we're picking against the spread as opposed to picking winners as it poses more of a challenge and makes you think more about outcomes. Posted below are my and Nathaniel's picks with rationales for each game in Week 1.
Dallas Cowboys at NY Giants (-3.5)
Lucas: Giants. The defending champs by tradition open at home and despite the usual tradition of the Giants starting seasons slowly, I'm confident they beat the spread in the opener. We're looking at probably a 7, 10 point game by the time all is said and done.
Nathaniel: Giants. A. The defending Super Bowl champion NEVER loses this opening night home game. B. The Giants look like they're noticeably better than Dallas this year anyway. One of the easiest picks of the week.
Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears (-10.5)
Lucas: Bears. This was a tough pick and a well-set line by Vegas. I think the Andrew Luck Experience will start well, but from the bits and pieces of Bears preseason football I caught this offense looks scary good. I don't think a Colts defense still adjusting to 3-4 scheme will be able to fully hold off these guys.
Nathaniel: Colts. I'd be shocked if the Bears lost this game, but the likelihood of Andrew Luck coming up with a backdoor cover in the fourth quarter is too great for me to pick them against the spread.
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (+8.5)
Lucas: Eagles. I don't care if it's on the road, it's Cleveland. The better line would be at what point does Michael Vick get hurt? I say he's fine this week, but within a couple weeks he'll be nursing a dislocated elbow or something.
Nathaniel: Browns. Don't get me wrong, the Eagles will be much better than Cleveland this year, but giving a HOME team 8.5 points against a team (supremely talented as they might be) that went 8-8 last year? Gotta take the points, I think.
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-8.5)
Lucas: Lions. Boromir says so.
Nathaniel: Lions. The Lions are not a team you want to play against if you have offensive line issues. Just get out of there without needing a body cast, Sam Bradford!
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+6.5)
Lucas: Patriots. I don't think this secondary can contain Tom Brady and company. Too many points to be given up, and I don't think Jake Locker has the experience or the supporting cast to turn it into a shootout.
Nathaniel: Patriots. To make this interesting, Tennessee's going to have put up at least 24 to have a chance at making the cover and I don't have the faith in Jake Locker to make that leap.
Lucas: Falcons. The Chiefs aren't a terrible team (hence the line), but I don't think they can keep up with Atlanta's offense, and the Falcons are an excellent regular season team.
Nathaniel: Chiefs. To me, these teams are virtually even with Kansas City as the home team; so touché, Vegas. When in doubt, take the half-point?
Lucas: Jaguars in an upset. Adrian Peterson is probably not going to be the guy we're used to seeing and I think it hurts them in their opener.
Nathaniel: Jaguars. Two possible front-runners for the 2013 Matt Barkley Sweepstakes square off; expect the action to be RIVETING.
Lucas: Redskins. I think the line is too high with New Orleans' defense. They're vulnerable and we could see a nice debut from RG3. Saints still win, just not by that much.
Nathaniel: Redskins. Let's see: a supremely exciting and talented quarterback going up against a team that has virtually its whole defense suspended and is being coached by their INTERIM interim coach is getting 9.5 points? Yeah, I think I can go with that.
Lucas: Bills in an upset. Okay, maybe it's not much of an upset with a majority of of the Pick 'Em crowd going with Buffalo but that improved defense shouldn't have much trouble with the Sanchez/Tebow squad. It's just a question of can they score enough.
Nathaniel: Bills. Another toss-up in my book - taking the points and praying for one or fewer Ryan Fitzpatrick interceptions.
Lucas: Texans. Ryan Tannehill doesn't exactly have the weaponry to combat Houston, even though the Texan D lost a few key players. They should still cover in Week 1.
Nathaniel: Texans. HOW IS THIS LINE ONLY 7.5? Not that I'm complaining at all...
Lucas: 49ers. There's enough pressure from the Niner defense to give Aaron Rodgers some fits and Alex Smith has a decent day against a gelling Packer D, but it's not enough to stop the MVP from leading a game winning drive in the 4th quarter.
Nathaniel: Packers. The team that had unsustainably good turnover luck last year (but also has the best quarterback alive) should have no problem with the team that had unsustainably good turnover luck last year (and has Alex Smith).
Lucas: Seahawks in an "upset" similar to the Bills. Arizona has home field but I think Russell Wilson shines in his debut.
Nathaniel: Seahawks. I know Seattle hasn't exactly lit the world on fire the past few years, but I can't possibly understand why a team starting John Skelton at quarterback would possibly be favored in this context. Give me the rookie quarterback on the road in his first start!
Lucas: Panthers. They'll cover the spread, but probably not by much. Tampa will make it an interesting game as Cam Newton starts a bit of a sophomore struggle. Think a 21-17 type of game.
Nathaniel: Buccaneers. My pick for Sunday's most surprisingly entertaining game. With two good offenses and two VERY QUESTIONABLE defenses, this should be a game with a score up in the sixties and extensive nail-biting throughout.
Lucas: Broncos. A little leftover Tebow magic plus Peyton Manning's debut goes pretty well for Denver as they are barely able to cover the spread. Should be a fun game.
Nathaniel: Steelers. Can't believe I'm picking against Peyton Manning in a night game...can't believe I'm picking against Peyton Manning in a night game...can't believe I'm picking against Peyton Manning in a night game...
Lucas: Ravens. Andy Dalton is able to do a little damage with AJ Green against this tough defense, but Joe Flacco comes out firing and Ray Rice is able to run out the clock late after Dalton turns it over one too many times.
Nathaniel: Bengals. Here's where we see how much the Ravens miss Terrell Suggs...
Lucas: Raiders in an upset. It's a small enough line and the Chargers tend to start seasons slowly enough I think the Raiders could pull this one off at home.
Nathaniel: Raiders. Another game that should be wildly entertaining. Of course, since it's going to end at about 1:30 in the morning on the East Coast, not too many people will know that...
We're alternating who's posting our picks for every given week, so Nathaniel will have the picks next week. Enjoy today's season opener and the games on Sunday and Monday!
No comments:
Post a Comment