A Rivalry, A Dance, and the Fate of the Universe

Picture from northcentralcardinals.com.

I wrote back in October about how big rivalries are in sports. We, as sports fans, grow up with them. And if you play sports for your schools or follow them, you find yourself personally into a rivalry. Me? I've been conditioned to hate sports teams from Wheaton schools since 2003. Aurora Christian's biggest rival was (and might still be, I'm not sure anymore) Wheaton Academy (actually in West Chicago... liars). I was taught from my first months in Eagle red that Wheaton was the enemy. So my transition to North Central was easy; have a bird as the mascot, wear red, and have an archrival school from Wheaton.

So it comes as no surprise that when I look ahead to tomorrow's CCIW Men's Basketball Championship Game, I can't help but already have the pregame jitters. I remember telling someone before I did the NCC-Augie game 3 weeks ago that that was the biggest game I'd ever done public address for. It's just been usurped.

Like the big boys, Division III has a huge national championship tournament featuring the conference champions (42 conferences recognized), a Pool B team of non-AQ conferences (not sure what that's about), and 19 at-large bids. For those of you counting at home, that's 62 teams (up from 61 a year ago). That clears up the confusion about the count on the Tournament FAQ page, but still leaves me with a definitive "How does this work?" question.

And that's before we get into the NCAA Regional Rankings, which are even more of a load of bull. All 4 teams in the CCIW Tournament are in the Midwest Rankings, with Wheaton at #2, Wesleyan at #5, NCC at #7 and Augie at #8. NCC is the top seed in the conference... yet is 7th? They were 5th in previous installments, but fell in the final poll despite winning their final 2 regular season games. Wheaton being above them is defensible because they've won the first 2 matchups (we'll get to matchup 3 in a moment), but Wesleyan? Yes, they're a game up on NCC in the standings. But... NCC beat them. Twice. Still makes more sense than the BCS, but not by much.

My rant complete, this game is huge for both teams, though NCC has more to gain. I think making it to the title game should be enough to get the Cardinals in regardless of the result, but the automatic bid makes everything easier. Wheaton should get in either way, but NCC has revenge on their minds. How do they go about getting it? Here's the key matchups tomorrow night:

1. NCC Frontcourt vs. Wheaton Frontcourt. It's always a battle in the trenches. Tim McCrary of Wheaton (18.5 ppg, 8.7 rpg) is a beast, and while Wesleyan doubled him often tonight, he went off for a 19-12-4 (with 2 steals and 3 blocks for good measure). He has 34 points and 19 rebounds in 2 games against the Cardinals this year, but he'll still have his hands full with the stacked NCC backcourt. Odds are he'll be matched up on Aaron Tiknis tomorrow, which should be a fun matchup. Both guys can score from just about anywhere (though Aaron has a great 3 point shot, McCrary doesn't shoot from deep). Whoever can outduel the other will give his team a great chance to win. Meanwhile, Landon Gamble for the Cardinals will be getting touches in the post, and as the play by play team on WONC said, "If you give him space, he's automatic." If they can keep Gamble away from the hoop, NCC is in trouble.
2. Snipers. A stat I heard on WONC tonight that floored me was that NCC is shooting just under 40 percent from beyond the arc as a team. Of the 5 guys who have shot the most 3's on the team, the two lowest percentages are held by CJ Goldthree (36.4%) and Vince Kmiec (36.5%). I'm honestly shocked Vince's rate is so low, but then you add in Kevin Gillespie (41%), Derek Raridon (43.2%), and the aforementioned Aaron Tiknis (52.3%... that is not a typo.) Wheaton shoots almost as well (38 percent as a team), with 3 key players over 40 percent from deep. NCC went cold early tonight against Augie, but they were able to stay in the game with defense. If they keep Wheaton in check and are hitting from deep early, look out.
3. Defense. You all know the old adage. What really impressed me tonight with Wheaton was how well they moved on defense. Wesleyan really never had any open looks, and it showed in their shooting numbers (30.4% from the field tonight). NCC plays great team defense as well. Whichever team can find (and hit) the open shots, and take care of the basketball will likely win the game.
4. Free Throws. This doomed NCC in their loss at Wheaton, and nearly did the Thunder in tonight (10-20 from the line in the 2nd half). This game, like the previous ones, screams "Close finish, comes down to execution down the stretch." The teams are about even overall from the line, with Wheaton having great shooters (McCrary at 76%, Aaron Garriot at 84%). But NCC has Derek Raridon, who, really, should just have the scoreboard operator put 2 points up without him needing to shoot his freebies, because he's going to make them anyway (91%).

This has the makings of a possible bloodbath, or a fun, fast-paced, high scoring affair. Either way, it will come down to the final possession in an incredibly loud gym, as both fan bases will come out in full force. I'm looking forward to being behind the mic for this game, being my usual, unabashed homer self, and hopefully bringing home a win and a trip to the tournament.

WE ARE NC. GO CARDINALS!