COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 7

Hard to believe we're already to Week 7 of the NFL season. It's not as hard to believe that I've come back down to Earth and Nathaniel is catching up to me. We disagree on enough games that he can overtake me this week. We'll see how it goes.

Unfortunately, we're down a prognosticator this week. After Arnie went 0-1 this past week he went into a coma from eating candy. It's okay, he'll be back soon. Until then, here's our Week 7 picks.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

Lucas: 49ers. Tough to pick, but Seattle is too different a team away from the Pacific Northwest, and the Niners have revenge on their minds. They probably barely beat the spread.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. Let's all take a moment to recognize Richard Sherman's post-game picture with Tom Brady as one of the greatest trolling moments in NFL history. You want to talk about BRASS CAJONES and just a little bit more stupidity than you would expect from a Stanford grad, this Richard Sherman's got it. Hopefully he won't attempt the same thing if the Seahawks beat the Niners because, for serious here guys, there's no sport in picking on Alex Smith.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-3.5)

Lucas: Bills. Two not very good teams. I’m taking the home team.

Nathaniel: Bills. What would happen if the 2009 Titans with 2009 Chris Johnson came in to play this Bills run defense on Sunday? Would we estimate the number of yards CJ2K would eventually rack up in the hundreds or thousands? Sounds like a question for WhatIfSports.com to answer! (Running simulation...waiting...) What? Just 138 yards on 24 carries?! Now I know that Sim engine is messed up. 

(Lucas note: Mine wasn't much better. 23 for 147 and a score. But the Bills won.)

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

Lucas: Colts. Brandon Weeden looked competent last week. I’m scared. I just don’t think he can replicate it on the road. Maybe Mike Holmgren put a voodoo curse on Brandon Weeden’s stuff yesterday before he left for good.

Nathaniel: Colts. Good news, Browns fans! Your new owner's got a plan! It just involves completely cleaning house and getting rid of your entire front office and coaching staff and starting over from scratch...again. Yikes. Please read this story to transport yourself to a happier time.

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (+5.5)

Lucas: Packers. A supervisor at work who recently left to be closer to his family is a big Rams fan, and in talking to him a few weeks ago he talked like the Rams can really only get field goals. Which with Legatron is a good thing as long as he’s not missing 3. The other problem… I think Aaron Rodgers is back.

Nathaniel: Rams. Much like Mary Tyler Moore or tinder made from various spongy types of fungus, these Rams have spunk and I expect that they'll have this be a close game at the end. And if not close, then at least dirty. They're always good for that.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Lucas: Cardinals. Don’t know why, but I feel like Arizona can cover this. Do I really have that much faith in John Skelton? Especially after...

Nathaniel: Cardinals. Call me primitive or Midwest-biased, but I had never actually seen John Skelton's face without a helmet on before a couple days ago. Thus, I took the liberty of typing "John Skelton" into Google. This is the picture that's associated with his name. AHHHH PUT RYAN LINDLEY IN NOW!!!!

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6.5)

Lucas: Redskins. The “Nobody Believes in Us” Factor doesn’t apply this week. The Giants seem due for a dud, even if they win.

Nathaniel: Redskins. Thing I'm most excited to see in this game: Chase Blackburn trying to chase down RGIII on a scramble. My guess is it's going to work about as well for Chase as it would for William Conrad trying to chase down Usain Bolt, but, really, the actual visuals will be better than anything I could dream up in my head.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

Lucas: Buccaneers. The Saints still have one more game with the interim interim coach. Also the pirate ship malfunctioned on Sunday so Greg Schiano couldn’t open fire even if he wanted to.

Nathaniel: Buccaneers. I don't want to jinx it or anything, but the Buccaneers looked like a juggernaut against the Chiefs last Sunday. Granted, looking like a juggernaut against the Chiefs is the same as looking mediocre against South Dakota State, but let's give them the benefit of the doubt here against a Saints defense that is still terribad.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (+2.5)

Lucas: Cowboys. Cam Newton’s sophomore slump continues and the Cowboys still win despite Jason Garrett doing everything in his power to lose the game. Also I don’t think Arnie likes Jason Garrett anymore.

Nathaniel: Panthers. With Norv and Andy Reid both on bye weeks and looking like their days may finally be numbered, it's time for the next generation of Clock Management Disaster Enthusiasts to stand and accept the passing of the torch. Call me a dreamer or a naive optimist if you will, but I have all the faith in the world that Jason Garrett and Ron Rivera will rise up and burn all of their timeouts by the midway point of the third quarter. And when it happens...it shall be beautiful.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-6.5)

Lucas: Texans. Green Bay provided the blueprint to beat Houston: Put Aaron Rodgers in a dome and have him destroy everyone. Since Joe Flacco is no Aaron Rodgers and the Ravens saw their spirit and body break last week, Houston rebounds. (Yes, that’s 3 weeks in a row of Ravens/Bane parallels.)

Nathaniel: Ravens. I know basically half the Ravens' defense died last week, but shouldn't this line just be Houston by 3? On the other hand, the Ravens DID only beat the Chiefs by three on the road, so I can understand the opposing viewpoint as well. 

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-4.5)

Lucas: Jaguars. I feel like the Jags will use that drubbing at the hands of the Bears as motivation to come out this week strong. And against Oakland, I see them at least covering.

Nathaniel: Raiders. Mike Mularkey must have enjoyed all the free press he got from Joe Biden in the Vice Presidential debate last week. It'll come in handy when he'll eventually be writing out resumes for open offensive coordinator gigs in 2014.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5)

Lucas: Jets. New England has looked quite mortal this year, and even though they’re at home, 10 ½ points is an awful lot to be giving these guys.

Nathaniel: Jets. Now, you and I both know that the Patriots are much, MUCH better than the Jets. But at the same time, they do have the same record, don't they? I'm taking the 10.5 points and if the Patriots end up winning 70-7 and Rex Ryan ends up roasting Mark Sanchez's foot over an open fire at midfield after the game, so be it.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

Lucas: Bengals. James Harrison should be thankful he’s not in Brian Mills’ shoes. Any character played by Liam Neeson that suffered “double-digit concussions” would just shrug it off and go back to killing Albanians for kidnapping his daughter. James Harrison would get fined by Roger Goodell for “dick measuring”.

Nathaniel: Bengals. And the national delusion that the Steelers are still a good team ends right about...now.

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-5.5)

Lucas: Bears. We all know what happened the last time “bad guys” from Detroit tried to take out a strong Chicago team.

Nathaniel: Lions. Bears to win, Lions to cover. Although if Matt Stafford keeps throwing 60% of his passes sidearm or at a three-quarters angle, I might take the Bears defense and 5.5 points over Detroit.

Records so Far
Lucas: 44-47 (5-9 last week)
Nathaniel: 40-51 (6-8 last week)

Transcendent Spirit

Huge sports fan that I am, there are some moments that transcend the normal meaning of sports. In middle school one of my teammates in basketball was diagnosed with leukemia and despite playing some in his earlier years at St. Paul's, by 8th grade he was unable to compete. But during our final tournament of the year in Peoria, he started our final game. He was in long enough to receive the opening tip before we called timeout to sub him out. It was a moving moment even for those of us on the bench, who had no idea this was happening (or at least, I didn't.) He passed away about a year and a half later, and much of the St. Paul's community went to his visitation to pay their respects, myself included. I couldn't help but remember this game yesterday as St. Paul's did something quite similar.

Picture from St. Paul's Luther School Facebook page.

Many of you know my family's story, in particular my brother Logan, who was diagnosed with Duchenne muscular dystrophy in 2003. For almost 10 years I've watched his ability to move waste away, and he's been wheelchair bound for almost 2 years now. But while his muscles are weak, his heart and his spirit are incredibly strong.

When he was in 5th grade, the St. Paul's soccer coach asked my parents if Logan could be part of the team, and my parents agreed. For the most part Logan served as a manager and de facto cheerleader for his teammates and friends, and even got to play the final minute of that season. He could still walk at that point, but his balance was an issue, and my parents didn't want to risk him getting hurt, so his playing career ended there. Or so I thought.

In the weeks leading up to the end of this season, Coach Steve Drolema was planning a great finale for this team. Yesterday Zion Lutheran from Marengo made the trip out to Aurora for a couple short games to close out our season. In between games, the teams met at midfield for a pregame prayer led by Logan, and knowing about this game in advance, the kids from Marengo all signed a soccer ball to present to Logan with their favorite Bible verses on it.

Then, Logan made his first career start in soccer. He was at midfield to do the opening kickoff to a teammate, who quickly kicked it out of bounds so Logan could be subbed out. Needless to say, he left to a nice round of applause. His kick could not have been any better, right to his teammate.

I played soccer for St. Paul's for 4 years back in the day, and had some great memories of games at Jericho Park in Aurora and on the incredibly shortened field at Cross Lutheran in Yorkville. I scored once in my career, in 7th grade at home against Cross on what is probably my greatest feat of individual athleticism outside of catching any football thrown at or above head level today. Getting to see my brother take the field with his friends yesterday afternoon topped my goal and every moment I had wearing the much different Cougar uniform from back in the day.

My sincere thanks goes out to Coach Drolema and the entire St. Paul's community and staff for coming out to support this, as well as the coach of Zion-Marengo for agreeing to this special moment. And most of all to Logan, for being the ultimate teammate for 4 years and being part of a moment that transcends sport, and showing that his heart and his spirit outshine anything life can throw his way.

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 8

In the last 2 weeks, we've seen 5 teams ranked in the Top 5 go down. I love it. A little more chaos never hurt anyone. So as we look ahead at Week 8, it's finally time to start thinking about the Death to the BCS Playoffs that are going to be amazing to think about. Only 12 unbeatens remain, and since the Big East and SEC have half of those, that number will go down. Part of me still hopes that we'll have more than two unbeatens left when all is said and done, if for no other reason than to keep poking holes in the dying BCS.

So before we get going with a playoff preview, here's how the conferences' scheduling checks out going into Week 8 of the season.

1. WAC (6.43): Everyone is either in-conference or off this week, so no change at the top.
2. Conference-USA (6.42): Also no out of conference tilts this week. These are becoming rarer and rarer.
3. Sun Belt (6.1): Middle Tennessee is off to Mississippi State, which gave the conference a bit of a boost this week. Other than that, everyone is in conference or off.
4. MAC (6): Eastern Michigan hosts Army, while Buffalo and Toledo host Pitt and Cincinnati, respectively. Good scheduling this week.
5. Mountain West (5.3): No change this week with a lack of out of conference play.
6. Big East (5): Moved up a bit with Pitt and Cincy off to MAC schools. I like their willingness to hit the road for those types of games.
7. Big 10 (4.58): Indiana is off to Annapolis to face Navy. Other than that all play stays within Big 10 borders.
8. ACC (3.42): Nobody playing outside the confines of the conference this week.
9. Pac-12 (3.33): Stands pat with no out of conference games.
10. SEC (2.86): Mississippi State hosts Middle Tennessee to add a small amount to the scoring, but other than that, everyone is staying in the SEC.
11. Big XII (2.5): No one playing outside the conference means they remain in last place.

Now comes the fun part: looking at who would make the playoffs under Dan Wetzel's system. As a reminder, this is a 16 team playoff where the 11 conference champions make it along with 5 at large teams. Higher seeds host in the first 3 rounds before the national title game played at a neutral site. Bear in mind that this is with several games still to be played and something of an "if the season ended today" setup. Please also note that teams listed as "conference champions" are the teams currently with the best conference records, and for the purposes of these rankings they are given the championship bid. Obviously these spots are the most subject to change, but here's where we're at so far. A lot of the top does coincide somewhat with the BCS rankings.

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 7

It's weeks like this most recent one that give me joy in college football. 3 of the top 5 teams fell over the weekend, there are only 16 unbeatens left in the FBS realm and there was upheaval. I love weekends like that, if for no other reason than to throw the convoluted BCS formula into utter chaos. I know, I'm a college football sadist. Need to take some joy after having another off week in picking NFL games.

But I'm also a realist and someone who knows to put things in perspective. Before getting into the rankings, I want to take a moment (however belatedly) to pay respects to D-III's Washington and Jefferson running back Tim McNerney, who was killed a week ago. NCC doesn't play these guys (unless they were to meet in the playoffs), but there's nothing that can prepare you for losing a teammate and a friend in such a senseless matter. My thoughts and prayers go out to the Presidents and their fans, especially the family of McNerney.

This week held a fair share of non-conference games at the DI-A level now that we're a short time away from the first BCS rankings coming out. You already know my stance on these rankings, which is why next week I'm going to at least try to come up with some sort of system for a playoff preview in the construct of the Death to the BCS playoffs. But for now, we stick to ranking the conferences in terms of how they've scheduled thus far.

1. WAC (6.43): Louisiana Tech hosts Texas A&M (kudos to the Aggies) and (holy crap) UTSA is playing at Rice in an attempt to counterbalance their double dose of D-II schools this season. Not going to save you, guys. This just barely got them to the mountaintop again.
2. Conference-USA (6.42): One point this week in the aforementioned UTSA-Rice battle. Hard to come out on top with the conference schedule in full swing.
3. Sun Belt (5.8): No out of conference games here this week.
4. MAC (5.62): They get the military involved this weekend with Central Michigan hosting Navy and Kent State heading to West Point. The MAC is catching up...
5. Mountain West (5.3): They stand pat as well with no play outside of its own.
6. Big East (4.5): Took a hit this week with Cincinnati hosting its second cupcake of the season, the only contest out of conference. Fairly or not, this is the first week where a conference finished with a negative aggregate score.
7. Big Ten (4.42): Standing pat with no out of conference games. Getting closer to the Big East though because of Cincy's weak schedule.
8. ACC (3.42): Another conference staying in house and staying where it's at.
9. Pac-12 (3.33): Oregon State (BYU) and Stanford (Notre Dame) hit the road this week to raise their score. That Stanford-ND game should be an interesting one.
10. SEC (2.78): Texas A&M is off to Louisiana Tech in a battle of ranked teams. Nice to actually see an SEC team hit the road against a mid major.
11. Big XII (2.5): Holding as firm as the weakest out-of-conference scheduling conference can by staying in house.

We're sure to see some of the 16 unbeatens fall this week and help clear up the picture. My biggest concern with a playoff preview is the prospect of having multiple unbeatens in a conference that requires a championship game (I'm looking at you, SEC) that muddles the whole picture. It won't last, obviously, but it may make next week's playoff look a complicated one.

Meanwhile in the NFL, hopefully Week 6's picks go smoother. I got a point in our ESPN pool that I shouldn't have because of accidentally clicking Seattle when I committed in writing to Carolina. We'll see if that comes into play come the end of the season. You can find mine an Nathaniel's picks this week over at SSLYAR later today.

October Baseball Awards

Being the Cubs fan that I am, there wasn't much to watch this baseball season. But for a fun pastime, this really was an excellent season overall, with a lot of history being made and plenty of drama to unfold as the months went by. The addition of the second wild card I would say was a rousing success and definitely did not take away from the end of the season. And I did make it to games in 3 different cities this year, running my ballpark bucket list to 11 of 30 with a trip to Arlington in June to briefly tie my dad before he and my brother went off to Fenway.


I was talking yesterday morning with a couple guys at work right when I got to the office about how wide open the postseason really is. It's easier to count out the teams that likely don't have a chance versus the teams that have the best chance to win it all. And even that is iffy. While I haven't seen enough baseball to really figure out which teams have the best shot, I do think I can answer the important questions about who will win what awards in the MLB this season.

Manager of the Year

National League
Davey Johnson, WAS- Take a team with a teenage star in the making in Bryce Harper and a squad that people figured were on the way up but not quite ready yet, and lead them to the best record in the majors? Other than the shutting down of Stephen Strasburg (I think it was premature) he handled this group in excellent fashion.

American League
Robin Ventura, CHW- I was one of many who wrote the White Sox off before this season. And go figure, they played incredibly well up until late September. For a guy with no managerial experience to come in and not only exceed expectations, but have a team in the race until the final week is astounding in my book. Give him props.

Rookie of the Year

National League
Norichika Aoki, MIL- At this point I'm trying to grasp at straws I feel. There were so many directions I could have gone with no one rookie standing out and Anthony Rizzo didn't have enough service time in my opinion. Aoki hit well (.288), stole 30 bases, and had a very good K/BB ratio (55-43) in 151 games. 37 doubles helps too. All in all a good year for him.

American League
Mike Trout, LAA- Who else? More on him a little later.

Cy Young

National League
R.A. Dickey, NYM- 20-6, 2.73, 233.2 IP, 54 BB, 230 K, .226 BAA, 1.05 WHIP. Tough call between Dickey and Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. I opted for Dickey because of his 20 wins to Kershaw's 14, but also because of the fewer walks in more innings and the league lead in innings pitched and strikeouts. Honestly the numbers are so close I'm looking for one thing that put it over the top, and for me it was the wins. But I wouldn't be upset if Kershaw takes the trophy again.

American League
Justin Verlander, DET- 17-8, 2.64, 238.1 IP, 60 BB, 239 K, .217 BAA, 1.06 WHIP. Another tough race between Verlander, Jered Weaver of the Angels and David Price of the Rays. Weaver led the AL in WHIP, but struck out almost 100 fewer batters than Verlander did. Price won 20 games and had the lowest ERA, but Verlander pitched more innings (thus having more opportunities for stats) and only walked one more batter than Price did. That's insane.

Most Valuable Player

National League
Buster Posey, SF- .336/.408/.549, 24 HR, 103 RBI, 39 2B. Wow. Had a tough time deciding between Posey and Ryan Braun again. I'm not holding anything against Braun's positive test last year that was overturned on a technicality. Braun led the National League in homers with 41 while stealing 30 bases and was a big reason why Milwaukee finished with a decent mark this year. But Posey played a tough defensive position that involved calling games for a pitching staff while also helping lead his team without Melky Cabrera? Let's also remember that Braun without Prince Fielder saw his team drop in the win column and miss the postseason. It's not an end-all, be-all, but it certainly plays a role. Tough call, but I'm taking Posey. Yet this was nothing compared to the choice for the final category.

American League
Miguel Cabrera, DET- .330/.393/.606, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 40 2B. Let's forget for a second that Cabrera won the Triple Crown, something that hasn't been done in a very long time. That has no relevance in this argument. By contrast, let's look at Mike Trout's season:

.326/.399/.564, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 27 2B, 8 3B, 49 SB

Staggering as well in its all-around brilliance. The big arguments for Trout have been his WAR (I think 10.5 is what I've been hearing, tops in the AL) and the fact that he plays better defense (a .988 fielding percentage for Trout compared to .966 for Cabrera with 13 errors), though manning the hot corner and patrolling center field are two totally different things. My big difference lies in the fact that Detroit made the playoffs while the Angels did not (granted, the Angels did finish with a better record), but in the process, Trout faded in September while Cabrera shined (.308/.378/.654, 10 HR, 24 RBI). Let's also look at one more stat: batting in late/close situations (as defined by MLB.com).

Cabrera: .310/.403/.517, 3 HR, 10 RBI

Trout: .267/.333/.378, 1 HR, 7 RBI

Sorry Mike. Maybe next year.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 5

It's amazing what a difference a week makes. Week 3 was a terrible week for me and Nathaniel, both in terms of picks and at least for me in what happened on the field. Instead this week, we both finished above .500 (I'm very pleased with how Week 4 went), both our teams won, and I got followed on Twitter by Green Bay's M.D. Jennings. Not a bad haul. And to you, M.D. Jennings, if you're reading this: thank you for the follow, good luck, and Go Pack Go!

Anyway, Nathaniel and I hammered out picks for this upcoming week, now that Lovie can move on to the second quarter of his season.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (+1.5)

Lucas: Cardinals. Kevin Kolb or not this team is for real. This should be a good game but I like this spread.

Nathaniel: Rams. I played an electronic game of Yahtzee once where I rolled Yahtzees on my first four rolls and ultimately scored 826 – I thought I’d broken the game. The Cardinals’ season so far has basically been the equivalent of that one crazy round of Yahtzee. I scored a 193 the very next game. Let’s see if the Cards can do any better.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)

Lucas: Bengals. Do you really think Ryan Tannehill can throw for 400 yards again? I mean, it is the Bengals defense, but still…

Nathaniel: Dolphins. I hate to say a team is “due” to win a game, but if anybody is, the Dolphins certainly are. They outplayed both the Jets and Cardinals and Ryan Tannehill is wildly exceeding the puny, puny expectations I had for his season. He’s completed MULTIPLE forward passes this year! It’s still shocking, just to type that out.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)

Lucas: Packers. Aaron Rodgers’ career indoors including playoffs: 378-552, 4,977 yds, 36 TD, 6 INT. That’s a 113.9 passer rating, by the way. Facing a rebuilding Colts defense? It’ll be like Goku versus Nappa and Vegeta.

Nathaniel: Colts. Who knows, maybe this is the week the Packers turn it on and win 45-17. But the Green Bay team I’ve seen so far this year doesn’t deserve to give 7.5 points on the road against anybody…well, anybody other than Kansas City.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)

Lucas: Ravens. “I was wondering what would break first: your spirit, or your Cassel.”

Nathaniel: Ravens. This line is bananas. Has Vegas seen Baltimore’s offense this year? More importantly, have they caught three minutes of any Chiefs game? You’d have to tack on another touchdown to this line before I would even consider taking Kansas City. Patently ridiculous.

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants (-9.5)

Lucas: Browns. Coughlin’s team covered last week! I’m 2-2 in Giants games! (Corrected after last week's mistake in Nathaniel's post). The fact that this line is so high probably means Cleveland will backdoor cover! Of course, that probably also means Eli will throw for 5 touchdowns, 2 to Victor Cruz as CBS’ TV crew admonishes NBC for playing salsa music on Sunday night under his touchdown.
Nathaniel: Giants. Don’t really have anything interesting to add to this, so let’s all just enjoy the great Eli GIF from last Sunday night one more time...

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Lucas: Steelers. Mike Tomlin’s team has won 4 straight coming off the bye week, and amazingly Vick and crew took care of the ball last week. Return to normalcy?

Nathaniel: Eagles. Not sure what I’m getting from either team here. Well, scratch that, I have some basic idea of what’s going to transpire; Michael Vick’ll hold onto the ball too long and get COMPLETELY F-ED UP at least 15 times, James Harrison will try to literally decapitate someone, etc. The score, however…I could see the score ending up any which number of ways. Thus, I’m taking the points and hiding.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (+3.5)

Lucas: Falcons. Matt Ryan is being touted as the early MVP by some folks. He adds to his numbers in Washington in a fun contest against RG3. Speaking of RGIII...

Nathaniel: Redskins. I’d just like to take a moment to write a special message to Robert Griffin III: LEARN HOW TO SLIDE RGIII. WE NEED YOU TO STAY HEALTHY AND PLAY FOR A LONG TIME. AND AS LONG AS YOU RUN UPRIGHT AND LET ANY NO-NAME LINEBACKER SMACK THE GATORADE AND SUBWAY SANDWICHES OUT OF YOU, THAT AINT’ GONNA HAPPEN. PLEASE CONSIDER TAKING CARE OF YOURSELF OUT THERE. THANK YOU. /end all-CAPS.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Lucas: Panthers. Seattle is not the same team away from Century Link. And Cam Newton is probably due for a bounceback game.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. The matchup between Cam and the Panthers offense against that outstanding Seahawks front line may be the most fun matchup of the week – other than possibly that one quarterback duel they’re having in Massachusetts at the same time. When in doubt, take the points.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)

Lucas: Bears. I want to amend this matchup: Chicago Bears defense at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5). I’m still taking the Bears. Holy crap, this defense looks like 2006 all over again.

Nathaniel: Bears. Unless Lance Briggs is still too winded from all the running he had to do last Monday night…

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Lucas: Vikings. I’ll take an 85-90% Adrian Peterson over a “100%” Chris Johnson. Also Christian Ponder over a probably washed up Matt Hasselbeck.

Nathaniel: Titans. Tennessee has actually had surprising success moving the ball this year and I don’t trust Christian Ponder to fully take advantage of the Titans’ defensive inadequacies. This should be a close one.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Lucas: Broncos. Good to see one more Brady/Manning duel. The Pats win but don’t beat the spread. Too much firepower on both sides.

Nathaniel: Broncos. I’d just like to extend a hearty SCREW YOU to the NFL for not putting this game on Sunday night where it would run unopposed. As a Bears fan, I feel an obligation to watch my team play in the same time slot, but I’m going to be flipping back and forth between that game and this one like crazy and I’m not going to be able to enjoy either of them properly and I’m sure fans of the other teams playing at the same time feel the same way. Not cool.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

Lucas: 49ers. I almost took Buffalo here, but then I remembered their defense is atrocious and gave up 52 to New England last week (somewhat understandable, minus the fact that almost all of it came in the 2^nd half) and 48 to the Jets in Week 1. The JETS! Even Alex Smith can beat this spread.

Nathaniel: Bills. 9.5 points is an awfully large spread to be giving a team that’s averaging close to 30 points a game, isn’t it?

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Lucas: Chargers. New Orleans is starting to get its act together, but still holding on the interim interim coach I think the Bolts at least cover.
Nathaniel: Saints. I was all prepared to write something this week about how this would be a perfect time to pick the Saints because they’re going to be undervalued and the Chargers aren’t actually any good and so on and so forth. And this line comes out. Well then. Screw it, I’m still taking the Saints.

Houston Texans at New York Jets (+7.5)

Lucas: Texans. Here’s the intriguing question: will one of Houston’s skill players outgain the entire Jets offense? I say yes. This is going to be a laugher.
Nathaniel: Texans. Maybe the Jets will get more first downs than turnovers this week…

Records so Far
Lucas: 35-28 (11-4 last week)
Nathaniel: 26-37 (8-7 last week)

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 6

Boy, Week 5 was insane, wasn't it? So much offense, and a decent shakeup in the rankings according to the AP, though the top is still the top. But the crazy thing so far is that through 5 weeks, there are still more than 20 unbeaten teams in the FBS. It really says something when you then consider that the NFL only had 3 unbeatens after just 3 weeks. Either there are several really good college teams or they are scheduling cupcakes, and I certainly think a large portion of it is the latter.

Within the next couple weeks we'll have a clearer picture of who's who among the FBS teams and I can start previewing the Death to the BCS playoffs (though some things just won't be solved until the conference title games), so until then we'll have to continue to settle for the scheduling rankings so far.

1. Conference USA (6.33): UAB took its cupcake this week, while Tulane is off to Louisiana-Lafayette. Houston and Southern Miss are hosting other FBS squads, and that's it for non-conference play this week. At this point half the conference has too much fat in their scheduling diet.
2. WAC (5.86): Texas State and Utah State aren't taking it easy this week, and Louisiana Tech has another mid-major at home. Other than that, play is either in conference or off this week. No new cupcakes leaves Louisiana Tech as still the only conference with no cupcake to its name.
3. Sun Belt (5.8): North Texas is at Houston and Louisiana-Lafayette hosts Tulane. Nothing incredibly tough on schedule this week, and the rest are all playing amongst each other if at all. Troy, FIU and ULM remain the 3 teams without an FCS team in sight thus far.
4. MAC (5.38): There's only one conference game this week and it's Miami-Ohio playing in-state at Cincinnati. The non-conference slate has calmed down a lot from when the MAC was constantly off to face the big schools, and the average scores have certainly helped balance out this conference with some of the smaller ones.
5. MWC (5.3): There's a small handful of out of conference tilts this week (Boise State @ Southern Miss, UNLV @ LA Tech, with Air Force and New Mexico at home against non-MWC foes). Boise State is still the only MWC team that's stayed exclusively in D-IA.
6. Big East (4.63): No change from last week, with all conference play this weekend.
7. Big Ten (4.42): Also no change, with 5 conference games and a couple teams off.
8. ACC (3.42): It's mostly within the ACC this week, though the 2 non-conference tilts are on the road (BC @ Army and Miami @ Notre Dame). Everyone has a cupcake in its stomach so far.
9. Pac-12 (3): All conference games this week makes for no changes.
10. SEC (2.64): No change here either, with some byes, but everyone playings is staying in conference.
11. Big XII (2.5): Once again there is no change with everyone staying in conference.

It's weeks like this where most of the big conferences didn't play out of conference that makes me want to look into playoff scenarios. Unfortunately it's still too early and there's still too many unbeatens left to accurately paint a picture. In particular the Big XII and SEC, which have about half the nation's unbeatens in their ranks, are very murky at this point. Within a couple weeks that number should dwindle and clear the playoff picture a little bit. Until then this analysis will continue on its own as I prepare to figure out who should be able to play for a national title this year.