October Baseball Awards

Being the Cubs fan that I am, there wasn't much to watch this baseball season. But for a fun pastime, this really was an excellent season overall, with a lot of history being made and plenty of drama to unfold as the months went by. The addition of the second wild card I would say was a rousing success and definitely did not take away from the end of the season. And I did make it to games in 3 different cities this year, running my ballpark bucket list to 11 of 30 with a trip to Arlington in June to briefly tie my dad before he and my brother went off to Fenway.


I was talking yesterday morning with a couple guys at work right when I got to the office about how wide open the postseason really is. It's easier to count out the teams that likely don't have a chance versus the teams that have the best chance to win it all. And even that is iffy. While I haven't seen enough baseball to really figure out which teams have the best shot, I do think I can answer the important questions about who will win what awards in the MLB this season.

Manager of the Year

National League
Davey Johnson, WAS- Take a team with a teenage star in the making in Bryce Harper and a squad that people figured were on the way up but not quite ready yet, and lead them to the best record in the majors? Other than the shutting down of Stephen Strasburg (I think it was premature) he handled this group in excellent fashion.

American League
Robin Ventura, CHW- I was one of many who wrote the White Sox off before this season. And go figure, they played incredibly well up until late September. For a guy with no managerial experience to come in and not only exceed expectations, but have a team in the race until the final week is astounding in my book. Give him props.

Rookie of the Year

National League
Norichika Aoki, MIL- At this point I'm trying to grasp at straws I feel. There were so many directions I could have gone with no one rookie standing out and Anthony Rizzo didn't have enough service time in my opinion. Aoki hit well (.288), stole 30 bases, and had a very good K/BB ratio (55-43) in 151 games. 37 doubles helps too. All in all a good year for him.

American League
Mike Trout, LAA- Who else? More on him a little later.

Cy Young

National League
R.A. Dickey, NYM- 20-6, 2.73, 233.2 IP, 54 BB, 230 K, .226 BAA, 1.05 WHIP. Tough call between Dickey and Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers. I opted for Dickey because of his 20 wins to Kershaw's 14, but also because of the fewer walks in more innings and the league lead in innings pitched and strikeouts. Honestly the numbers are so close I'm looking for one thing that put it over the top, and for me it was the wins. But I wouldn't be upset if Kershaw takes the trophy again.

American League
Justin Verlander, DET- 17-8, 2.64, 238.1 IP, 60 BB, 239 K, .217 BAA, 1.06 WHIP. Another tough race between Verlander, Jered Weaver of the Angels and David Price of the Rays. Weaver led the AL in WHIP, but struck out almost 100 fewer batters than Verlander did. Price won 20 games and had the lowest ERA, but Verlander pitched more innings (thus having more opportunities for stats) and only walked one more batter than Price did. That's insane.

Most Valuable Player

National League
Buster Posey, SF- .336/.408/.549, 24 HR, 103 RBI, 39 2B. Wow. Had a tough time deciding between Posey and Ryan Braun again. I'm not holding anything against Braun's positive test last year that was overturned on a technicality. Braun led the National League in homers with 41 while stealing 30 bases and was a big reason why Milwaukee finished with a decent mark this year. But Posey played a tough defensive position that involved calling games for a pitching staff while also helping lead his team without Melky Cabrera? Let's also remember that Braun without Prince Fielder saw his team drop in the win column and miss the postseason. It's not an end-all, be-all, but it certainly plays a role. Tough call, but I'm taking Posey. Yet this was nothing compared to the choice for the final category.

American League
Miguel Cabrera, DET- .330/.393/.606, 44 HR, 139 RBI, 40 2B. Let's forget for a second that Cabrera won the Triple Crown, something that hasn't been done in a very long time. That has no relevance in this argument. By contrast, let's look at Mike Trout's season:

.326/.399/.564, 30 HR, 83 RBI, 27 2B, 8 3B, 49 SB

Staggering as well in its all-around brilliance. The big arguments for Trout have been his WAR (I think 10.5 is what I've been hearing, tops in the AL) and the fact that he plays better defense (a .988 fielding percentage for Trout compared to .966 for Cabrera with 13 errors), though manning the hot corner and patrolling center field are two totally different things. My big difference lies in the fact that Detroit made the playoffs while the Angels did not (granted, the Angels did finish with a better record), but in the process, Trout faded in September while Cabrera shined (.308/.378/.654, 10 HR, 24 RBI). Let's also look at one more stat: batting in late/close situations (as defined by MLB.com).

Cabrera: .310/.403/.517, 3 HR, 10 RBI

Trout: .267/.333/.378, 1 HR, 7 RBI

Sorry Mike. Maybe next year.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 5

It's amazing what a difference a week makes. Week 3 was a terrible week for me and Nathaniel, both in terms of picks and at least for me in what happened on the field. Instead this week, we both finished above .500 (I'm very pleased with how Week 4 went), both our teams won, and I got followed on Twitter by Green Bay's M.D. Jennings. Not a bad haul. And to you, M.D. Jennings, if you're reading this: thank you for the follow, good luck, and Go Pack Go!

Anyway, Nathaniel and I hammered out picks for this upcoming week, now that Lovie can move on to the second quarter of his season.

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams (+1.5)

Lucas: Cardinals. Kevin Kolb or not this team is for real. This should be a good game but I like this spread.

Nathaniel: Rams. I played an electronic game of Yahtzee once where I rolled Yahtzees on my first four rolls and ultimately scored 826 – I thought I’d broken the game. The Cardinals’ season so far has basically been the equivalent of that one crazy round of Yahtzee. I scored a 193 the very next game. Let’s see if the Cards can do any better.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)

Lucas: Bengals. Do you really think Ryan Tannehill can throw for 400 yards again? I mean, it is the Bengals defense, but still…

Nathaniel: Dolphins. I hate to say a team is “due” to win a game, but if anybody is, the Dolphins certainly are. They outplayed both the Jets and Cardinals and Ryan Tannehill is wildly exceeding the puny, puny expectations I had for his season. He’s completed MULTIPLE forward passes this year! It’s still shocking, just to type that out.

Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)

Lucas: Packers. Aaron Rodgers’ career indoors including playoffs: 378-552, 4,977 yds, 36 TD, 6 INT. That’s a 113.9 passer rating, by the way. Facing a rebuilding Colts defense? It’ll be like Goku versus Nappa and Vegeta.

Nathaniel: Colts. Who knows, maybe this is the week the Packers turn it on and win 45-17. But the Green Bay team I’ve seen so far this year doesn’t deserve to give 7.5 points on the road against anybody…well, anybody other than Kansas City.

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)

Lucas: Ravens. “I was wondering what would break first: your spirit, or your Cassel.”

Nathaniel: Ravens. This line is bananas. Has Vegas seen Baltimore’s offense this year? More importantly, have they caught three minutes of any Chiefs game? You’d have to tack on another touchdown to this line before I would even consider taking Kansas City. Patently ridiculous.

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants (-9.5)

Lucas: Browns. Coughlin’s team covered last week! I’m 2-2 in Giants games! (Corrected after last week's mistake in Nathaniel's post). The fact that this line is so high probably means Cleveland will backdoor cover! Of course, that probably also means Eli will throw for 5 touchdowns, 2 to Victor Cruz as CBS’ TV crew admonishes NBC for playing salsa music on Sunday night under his touchdown.
Nathaniel: Giants. Don’t really have anything interesting to add to this, so let’s all just enjoy the great Eli GIF from last Sunday night one more time...

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)

Lucas: Steelers. Mike Tomlin’s team has won 4 straight coming off the bye week, and amazingly Vick and crew took care of the ball last week. Return to normalcy?

Nathaniel: Eagles. Not sure what I’m getting from either team here. Well, scratch that, I have some basic idea of what’s going to transpire; Michael Vick’ll hold onto the ball too long and get COMPLETELY F-ED UP at least 15 times, James Harrison will try to literally decapitate someone, etc. The score, however…I could see the score ending up any which number of ways. Thus, I’m taking the points and hiding.

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (+3.5)

Lucas: Falcons. Matt Ryan is being touted as the early MVP by some folks. He adds to his numbers in Washington in a fun contest against RG3. Speaking of RGIII...

Nathaniel: Redskins. I’d just like to take a moment to write a special message to Robert Griffin III: LEARN HOW TO SLIDE RGIII. WE NEED YOU TO STAY HEALTHY AND PLAY FOR A LONG TIME. AND AS LONG AS YOU RUN UPRIGHT AND LET ANY NO-NAME LINEBACKER SMACK THE GATORADE AND SUBWAY SANDWICHES OUT OF YOU, THAT AINT’ GONNA HAPPEN. PLEASE CONSIDER TAKING CARE OF YOURSELF OUT THERE. THANK YOU. /end all-CAPS.

Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Lucas: Panthers. Seattle is not the same team away from Century Link. And Cam Newton is probably due for a bounceback game.

Nathaniel: Seahawks. The matchup between Cam and the Panthers offense against that outstanding Seahawks front line may be the most fun matchup of the week – other than possibly that one quarterback duel they’re having in Massachusetts at the same time. When in doubt, take the points.

Chicago Bears at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5)

Lucas: Bears. I want to amend this matchup: Chicago Bears defense at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5). I’m still taking the Bears. Holy crap, this defense looks like 2006 all over again.

Nathaniel: Bears. Unless Lance Briggs is still too winded from all the running he had to do last Monday night…

Tennessee Titans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Lucas: Vikings. I’ll take an 85-90% Adrian Peterson over a “100%” Chris Johnson. Also Christian Ponder over a probably washed up Matt Hasselbeck.

Nathaniel: Titans. Tennessee has actually had surprising success moving the ball this year and I don’t trust Christian Ponder to fully take advantage of the Titans’ defensive inadequacies. This should be a close one.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (-6.5)

Lucas: Broncos. Good to see one more Brady/Manning duel. The Pats win but don’t beat the spread. Too much firepower on both sides.

Nathaniel: Broncos. I’d just like to extend a hearty SCREW YOU to the NFL for not putting this game on Sunday night where it would run unopposed. As a Bears fan, I feel an obligation to watch my team play in the same time slot, but I’m going to be flipping back and forth between that game and this one like crazy and I’m not going to be able to enjoy either of them properly and I’m sure fans of the other teams playing at the same time feel the same way. Not cool.

Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)

Lucas: 49ers. I almost took Buffalo here, but then I remembered their defense is atrocious and gave up 52 to New England last week (somewhat understandable, minus the fact that almost all of it came in the 2^nd half) and 48 to the Jets in Week 1. The JETS! Even Alex Smith can beat this spread.

Nathaniel: Bills. 9.5 points is an awfully large spread to be giving a team that’s averaging close to 30 points a game, isn’t it?

San Diego Chargers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)

Lucas: Chargers. New Orleans is starting to get its act together, but still holding on the interim interim coach I think the Bolts at least cover.
Nathaniel: Saints. I was all prepared to write something this week about how this would be a perfect time to pick the Saints because they’re going to be undervalued and the Chargers aren’t actually any good and so on and so forth. And this line comes out. Well then. Screw it, I’m still taking the Saints.

Houston Texans at New York Jets (+7.5)

Lucas: Texans. Here’s the intriguing question: will one of Houston’s skill players outgain the entire Jets offense? I say yes. This is going to be a laugher.
Nathaniel: Texans. Maybe the Jets will get more first downs than turnovers this week…

Records so Far
Lucas: 35-28 (11-4 last week)
Nathaniel: 26-37 (8-7 last week)

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 6

Boy, Week 5 was insane, wasn't it? So much offense, and a decent shakeup in the rankings according to the AP, though the top is still the top. But the crazy thing so far is that through 5 weeks, there are still more than 20 unbeaten teams in the FBS. It really says something when you then consider that the NFL only had 3 unbeatens after just 3 weeks. Either there are several really good college teams or they are scheduling cupcakes, and I certainly think a large portion of it is the latter.

Within the next couple weeks we'll have a clearer picture of who's who among the FBS teams and I can start previewing the Death to the BCS playoffs (though some things just won't be solved until the conference title games), so until then we'll have to continue to settle for the scheduling rankings so far.

1. Conference USA (6.33): UAB took its cupcake this week, while Tulane is off to Louisiana-Lafayette. Houston and Southern Miss are hosting other FBS squads, and that's it for non-conference play this week. At this point half the conference has too much fat in their scheduling diet.
2. WAC (5.86): Texas State and Utah State aren't taking it easy this week, and Louisiana Tech has another mid-major at home. Other than that, play is either in conference or off this week. No new cupcakes leaves Louisiana Tech as still the only conference with no cupcake to its name.
3. Sun Belt (5.8): North Texas is at Houston and Louisiana-Lafayette hosts Tulane. Nothing incredibly tough on schedule this week, and the rest are all playing amongst each other if at all. Troy, FIU and ULM remain the 3 teams without an FCS team in sight thus far.
4. MAC (5.38): There's only one conference game this week and it's Miami-Ohio playing in-state at Cincinnati. The non-conference slate has calmed down a lot from when the MAC was constantly off to face the big schools, and the average scores have certainly helped balance out this conference with some of the smaller ones.
5. MWC (5.3): There's a small handful of out of conference tilts this week (Boise State @ Southern Miss, UNLV @ LA Tech, with Air Force and New Mexico at home against non-MWC foes). Boise State is still the only MWC team that's stayed exclusively in D-IA.
6. Big East (4.63): No change from last week, with all conference play this weekend.
7. Big Ten (4.42): Also no change, with 5 conference games and a couple teams off.
8. ACC (3.42): It's mostly within the ACC this week, though the 2 non-conference tilts are on the road (BC @ Army and Miami @ Notre Dame). Everyone has a cupcake in its stomach so far.
9. Pac-12 (3): All conference games this week makes for no changes.
10. SEC (2.64): No change here either, with some byes, but everyone playings is staying in conference.
11. Big XII (2.5): Once again there is no change with everyone staying in conference.

It's weeks like this where most of the big conferences didn't play out of conference that makes me want to look into playoff scenarios. Unfortunately it's still too early and there's still too many unbeatens left to accurately paint a picture. In particular the Big XII and SEC, which have about half the nation's unbeatens in their ranks, are very murky at this point. Within a couple weeks that number should dwindle and clear the playoff picture a little bit. Until then this analysis will continue on its own as I prepare to figure out who should be able to play for a national title this year.

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 5

It's Week 5- you can start to see the cream of the crop rise to the top of the rankings. It's not as convoluted as we near the end of September to start ranking these college football teams for what matters for 2 more years.

I think the new non-conference ranking worked out pretty well this past week in that taking the conference's scheduling outside of itself on a team average basis instead of a cumulative basis really worked well in figuring out which teams schedule better than others. These rankings start to take less meaning now that conference play is really starting to kick in all over this week, but there will still be the occasional out of conference game that will be played that needs to be taken into account when the Death to the BCS Playoffs begin. So without further ado, here's where we stand after 5 weeks of schedule analysis.

1. Conference-USA (6.08): Marshall has its second big school road test of the year (Purdue), with Southern Miss, UCF and SMU all getting one more big game in (Louisville, Missiouri and TCU, respectively) before they start conference play. They've also managed as a conference just 5 games against FCS competition in 5 weeks of the season. Impressive.
2. Sun Belt (5.5): Middle Tennessee gets to be a sacrificial lamb for Georgia Tech while Louisiana-Monroe gets a decent road test in Tulane. Other than that it's all byes or conference games. The Sun Belt had 7 FCS opponents through 5 weeks with all but one coming in the first 2.
3. MAC (5.15): This week Bowling Green hosts a cupcake while Buffalo is off to UConn. Bowling Green brings the MAC's total of cupcakes to 11 for the year, with only UMass and Ball State having the dignity to not face an FCS team yet this season.
4. WAC (5.14): No rounding was needed to determine the MAC/WAC placement. The WAC has a really tough schedule this week though, with Idaho (UNC) and Louisiana Tech (Virginia) off to ACC country. UTSA and New Mexico State open conference play, finally putting an end to the Roadrunners' sham of a schedule so far. Tech, as the only school without a cupcake so far helps offset the average and keeping the WAC toward the upper end of the rankings.
5. Mountain West (4.7): Hawaii, Nevada and UNLV are all on the road this week against non-conference FBS opponents. Nobody in big conferences, but still a good showing. Continuing with a trend of these conferences not having many schools without a cupcake to their name continues, as only Boise State has this distinction here.
6. Big East (4.63): I didn't realize until I started writing this that this is the first of the "major" 6 conferences to appear in this week's rankings... which kind of proves my original hypothesis, though not completely. The mid major conferences seem to have more out of conference tilts right now, which I do think skews the rankings a tad (not to mention half the conference being off this week), but Louisville is on the road, and South Florida and Cincy are facing big conference teams. That being said, UConn is the only team without a cupcake so far.
7. Big Ten (4.42): Another one that seems a little unfair with only Purdue facing a team out of conference, which helps explain the drop into the lower half. However a third of the conference hasn't had an FCS team on slate yet (both Michigan schools, as well as OSU and PSU). And even with those cupcakes, there have been some decent schedules (I look at Northwestern in particular).
8. ACC (3.08): Amazing what happens when FSU finally decides to get off its butt and hit the road while Virginia Tech is off to a neutral site against Cincy. Took the ACC long enough. Every team there has a cupcake on its resume (and remember, FSU has 2).
9. Pac-12 (3): No change from last week, as again, everyone is either off or facing other Pac-12 teams. Just over half the conference has a cupcake already faced with both Oregon schools, Stanford, USC and UCLA all avoiding that scarlet letter. Yet looking at their cumulative score they have one fewer point than the next conference down, a big reason why using averages is important.
10. SEC (2.64): Missouri is at UCF this weekend, but that's offset by LSU needing a recovery from barely getting by Auburn in Towson. This Tigers game puts them at over half of the conference hosting an FCS team this year. To give the polls some credibility, #1 Alabama is one of the schools that hasn't yet.
11. Big XII (2.5): These rankings have not been kind here. But when only Texas has held its head high without an FCS team in sight, there are some problems in house. This week, TCU's trip to SMU is the only game bringing points to an otherwise dismal non-conference slate this season.

Obviously with some non conference tilts left here and there, we may see more cupcakes scheduled. We have a couple months left though before these rankings really take on importance. Meanwhile in the NFL, at some point this morning Nathaniel will have our Week 4 picks on Someone Still Loves You, Alberto Riveron.

Taking Candy from a Packer

I'm typing this on my phone from the train on my way to work. Hopefully later I can go through and maybe add more imagery or detail or something. I don't know. But after last night I needed to vent. I will also freely admit that I am a little biased given my loyalties, but this was embarrassing.

For much of the night, the Green Bay-Seattle game was an excellent contest. And without the ending, it was a great game played by 2 teams who wouldn't give up. That gets lost in the chaos today: Seattle played a great football game. They gave Rodgers the Cutler treatment early and for the most part they played fantastic defense. And you have to credit Russell Wilson for putting Seattle in a position to win at the end.

I have said on here many times: the officials don't decide games, the players do, regardless of how poorly called a game was. The way Seattle played the first 30 minutes was worthy of a win, but the Packers made the necessary halftime adjustments. When Green Bay scored the go-ahead touchdown, for the half they had run probably 40 plays from scrimmage to the Seahawks' 6. 6 plays. A pair of three and outs. Dominance. They forced a turnover on downs with less than 2 minutes left after Russell Wilson moved them downfield (with some zebra help). You can say Green Bay left them too much time on the clock to score. You can say they couldn't execute on defense on that final drive. But that's where the problem lies.

Green Bay did execute on that final play. If you've listened to the analysis or watched the postgame last night and look at this close up you can see. At first I thought it was simultaneous possession. But the more you look at the play the more you realize they were wrong. Green Bay won the game. And it got taken away.

For what it's worth, I thought Mike McCarthy handled his postgame presser with as much class as one could in that situation. Had it been me I might have received the first million dollar fine in NFL history. But I love that Packer players went right to Twitter to vent. Tom Crabtree and TJ Lang were the first to get to social media and vent... Especially Lang. I like his take:

@TJLang70: F*** it NFL.. Fine me and use the money to pay the regular refs.

Most experts were saying it would take something like this to force the NFL's hand with the referees' union. I wish it wasn't my team that had to be the victim, but I'd feel bad for any team that lost like this.

The other fascinating thing to me about this game: the social media reaction as a whole. Other than the night Osama bin Laden was killed, this game seemed to make Twitter explode the most (and will probably stay so until the November elections.) But from an objective perspective, it's fascinating to see. We are a culture of immediacy. Everything that happened in the first 59:52 of that game was put on the back burner because of the final 8 seconds. It's fair because the referees decided this outcome, but at the same time it ruins what was otherwise actually a really good game.

I was pissed off last night and didn't get enough sleep. But what sleep I did get I think helped temper my anger over injustice. It's hard to, but part of me does feel bad for these replacements who are doing the best they can, but when a rule is not followed and the officials' mistake cost the team a game, we have problems. The NFL is a much faster game than the lower levels from whence these refs came. This is not to detract from D-II or D-III football because I love D-III football, but all these replacements regardless of level are having a tough time with the adjustment. Bring back the real refs. Now.

One final thought that again needs to be made. We saw based on social media how angry this has made people over a game. For a split second last night I wished harm on Golden Tate (moreso because of his blatant pushoff, not helped by the fact that he denies it) before I checked myself. Thats not what's important. This game overshadowed what should have been the top storyline from this week in Torrey Smith of the Ravens. He lost his brother early Sunday morning and with a heavy heart went out and played and had a great game in a win. All for his late brother. Recognizing our loved ones and cherishing every moment we have with them is what's most important. It's a damn shame that our eyes are drawn away from that and into a debacle that could have been and needs to be solved. Now. Before another fan base has to go through what I and millions of fellow Packer fans had to. I love the NFL. I don't want this to destroy it.

COAS/SSLYAR Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 3

The NFL season is moving pretty quickly already. We're 2 weeks into the season and we have a record 20 teams sitting at 1-1 so far. I was hoping last week I'd get to do a running diary of watching the game with Nathaniel, but laptop difficulties prevented it. Instead, go back to last week on my Twitter feed and read through some of my commentary if you want some mild amusement. We differ on 9 games, which is always a good thing to see a difference of opinion. While you can project a team's record pretty well it's not easy to pick week by week with sustained success, so I'll take a 19 win start to my year. It also put me ahead Waddle and Silvy... and the few other ESPN staff that are picking in their pool.

Anyway, below are my and Nathaniel's picks for Week 3 of the NFL season.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (+1.5)

Lucas: Panthers. When I first drafted this I picked the Giants but changed it after looking at injury reports. Let's see... missing your top running back, offensive lineman and 2 wideouts, plus needing to get the closest homeless guys off the street to play cornerback... sweet Carolina.

Nathaniel: Panthers. Every year, it seems like the Giants' defense consists of a lights-out front four and a back seven consisting of homeless people they found off the street. The trend seems to be continuing in 2012. Happy hunting, Cam.

St. Louis Rams at Chicago Bears (-7.5)

Lucas: Rams. Don’t get me wrong, I think the Bears win at home, but that Bears O-line. Also Jimmy McMillan is very persuasive.

Nathaniel: Bears. The more important question, obviously, is this: WHAT DO YOU THINK JAY CUTLER'S BODY LANGUAGE WILL BE LIKE, YOU GUYS? It's a proven fact that he's going to smirk and/or roll his eyes a combined total of 2,500 times during the game whether they win or lose, so let's all just accept that and move on.

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (+2.5)

Lucas: Bills. Even their subpar defense should contain Brandon Weeden… right?

Nathaniel: Browns. Too much of the Bills' offense right now is revolving around C.J. Spiller averaging ten yards a carry. And hey, the Browns have been pretty competitive in their first two games (how, we'll never know). Let's give 'em a go.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)

Lucas: Buccaneers. I know it’s in Dallas, but the Bucs have some good things to build off of after last week’s narrow loss. They don’t win, but they do cover.

Nathaniel: Cowboys. Will Greg Schiano order his troops to bum rush the kneeldown this week if they're down by twenty? I have a feeling we're going to find out.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (+3.5)

Lucas: Lions. Maybe this week is the week Chris Johnson gets off his lazy butt and does something, given that Detroit isn’t great on defense. But then again, it is Jake Locker, and I would think the Stafford to Megatron connection gets back on track this week.

Nathaniel: Lions. Chris Johnson begins his impossible task of trying to improve on his 1.1 yards per carry average. $53.5 million well spent, if you were to ask me!

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)

Lucas: Colts. Andrew Luck is at home and playing against Blaine Gabbert and the Jags? This might be my lock of the week.

Nathaniel: Colts. Luck over Gabbert. Literally the only rationale I can think of.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)

Lucas: Dolphins. I can’t believe I’m doing this, but with Darelle Revis’ health in question, I think Miami can cover.

Nathaniel: Jets. I'm fairly certain Rex Ryan would kill himself if his defense gave up half the points the Dolphins put on the Raiders last week. Well okay, so scoring 17.5 points is technically impossible, but you catch my drift, I think.

San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (+7.5)

Lucas: 49ers. Sorry, Christian Ponder. You’ve taken some good steps, but you’re going to have to be relied on to beat San Fran’s secondary since AP will likely not be much of a factor against their stout run D. Even at the Dome, I think San Fran wins by double digits.

Nathaniel: 49ers. The moment you've been waiting for all year has finally come, San Francisco: you've finally earned my respect! Congratulations! That should really mean a lot coming from someone who's 14-18 in these picks so far.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

Lucas: Saints. They’ve got to win sometime, and when you’re hosting arguably the worst team in the league… I’m going for this one. But I had to think about it.

Nathaniel: Saints. A get-well gift comes at just the right time for the Saints. The only silver lining for Kansas City so far this year? They somehow started even WORSE last year. Remember those 41-7 and 48-3 losses to Buffalo and Detroit? They must be taking this song too literally.

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Redskins (-3.5)

Lucas: Bengals. The Redskins are going to sorely miss Orakpo and Carriker. This will temper the team’s expectations for this year a bit, and it hurts starting with this one as Andy Dalton and company get back on track.

Nathaniel: Redskins. If the first two games are any indicator of the way the Bengals are going play defensively this year (and now that I've written this, they probably won't), then RGIII is going to have a remarkably fun day. Even better than the day he shot all those Subway commercials, if you can imagine.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (+4.5)

Lucas: Cardinals. I think this game gets too close to take the Eagles at this line, especially since the Cardinals went into Foxboro and stole a game from the Patriots last week. Vick’s turnovers come back to bite him this time (I said the same thing last week, but still.)

Nathaniel: Eagles. Both teams are sporting MUCH-better-than-expected defenses in 2012. Unfortunately, only one of these teams is starting Kevin Kolb.

Atlanta Falcons at San Diego Chargers (-2.5)

Lucas: Chargers. I’d go with the Falcons normally, but I think Michael Turner going over 90 miles an hour while drunk serves as a distraction this week.

Nathaniel: Falcons. It's so shocking to see the Chargers with an honest-to-God WINNING record in September that you almost have to assume that regression to the mean is going to set in some point. If my calculations are correct, then, the Falcons should win this game 77-3 and Philip Rivers is going to throw eight interceptions.

Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (+1.5)

Lucas: Broncos. Houston hasn’t really been tested yet, and Peyton is looking to rebound after a rough start in Atlanta on Monday.

Nathaniel: Broncos. Did you know that the Texans and Broncos are the two teams that have allowed the fewest yards per play defensively thus far (4.1)? Now you do! Of course, the Broncos held the above-average offenses of Pittsburgh and Atlanta to that figure while the Texans feasted on the pu-pu platter of Miami and Jacksonville. Prove it against Peyton for me, Houston.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+4.5)

Lucas: Steelers. Pittsburgh can’t seem to run the ball yet, but maybe facing the defense that allowed Reggie Bush to relive his days of getting free stuff will be a good remedy.

Nathaniel: Steelers. Gotta tell ya, they should definitely have an old-timers game featuring the stars from both great '70s teams play beforehand. I want to see how far Terry Bradshaw can still throw a football! I want to see if Mean Joe Greene still takes a liking to smashing Jim Otto's testicles! I want to see how many women 66-year-old Kenny Stabler carouses with before and after the game! Make it happen, NFL.
 

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Lucas: Ravens.When in doubt go with the home team. It’s the regular season; I think Joe Flacco bounces back and Ray Rice gets re-involved in the offense. If not I’m losing this matchup. Give the man the ball, Harbaugh!

Nathaniel: Patriots. While both teams lost last week, one of them lost because they got shredded through the air (granted, when the other team wasn't handing the ball over to them). The other lost because Zoltan Mesko had a punt blocked. As long as the Ravens don't mess with the Zoltan, I'm liking New England.

Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)

Lucas: Packers. The prospect of going to the most inhospitable stadium in the league made this a tough pick, but the line is only 3.5. Green Bay can beat that. They have MVP Tim Masthay! Screw that Rodgers guy and his 122 passer rating last year!

Nathaniel: Seahawks. Playing a hunch here. The Packers looked out of sync offensively in their first two games at Lambeau; a Monday Night game against a top-ten defense in the toughest outdoor environment in the league isn't exactly the easiest time or place to work yourself back into shape...

Records so far:

Lucas: 19-13, 10-6 last week

Nathaniel: 14-18, 8-8 last week

College Football Non-Conference Power Rankings: Week 4

It's Week 4 in the NCAA football season, and I think it's time for the power rankings to change. Conference play is really starting to pick up at this point; while some schools have played a game or 2 in conference, the Pac-12 has all in-conference games this week. This makes my formula not work anymore, as the Pac-12 would unfairly fall in the rankings. I felt that it worked okay for the first few weeks, but really looking at this week's slate and talking to my dad who came up with an improved way to use the formula to evaluate conferences' outside tilts, I decided it's time for the overhaul.

The scoring system for each school will not change. For the first 3 weeks of the season I added up the scores of each school in a given conference and took that as the conference's score. The obvious issue here is that, while the rankings did give a fairly accurate rating of where each conference stood, it neglected the factor of conference size. The top 3 conferences in last week's rankings were all 12 or 13-team conferences, while near the bottom we saw conferences like the Big XII (down to 10 teams) and the 8-team Big East in the bottom 2 slots. The SEC is the largest conference at 14 teams, so size isn't the end-all, be-all factor, but it's enough to impact the rankings. The easy solution my dad came up with? Take the average score of each school in a conference, instead of the sum. So that's what we will do from here on out. The scores posted weekly will still be cumulative over the course of the season.

As a result, the rankings will probably look a lot different than they have the first couple weeks, but it was a change I needed to make. A link to last week's rankings is above and as follows are the new rankings.

1. Conference-USA (5.25): While the aggregate score would have only been good enough for 2nd in the previous format,when you average it all out, these teams have scheduled strong teams.As for this week, some conference play has started but the non-conference games are all against FBS foes with East Carolina, Memphis, UAB and UTEP all undertaking tough road tests.
2. Sun Belt (5): This was a tough call in a tie with #3, broken based on the highest weekly score, which the Sun Belt got last week for 7 teams facing major conference opponents. They took a step down this week with Arkansas State hosting a cupcake, but Florida Atlantic and South Alabama both hit the road against major conference schools.
3. MAC (5): Some of the tiebreakers I came up with were size-biased (for example, a ratio of games at big conference opponents to game hosting D-IAA schools) so I opted for the tiebreaker above. It's still a respectable slate this week, with Akron, Bowling Green, and Central and Eastern Michigan off to big schools. Ohio is hosting a cupcake to bring down the slate this week however.
4. Big Ten (4.33): The top scheduling major conference wasn't as strong this week as in previous ones, as Nebraska and Northwestern host cupcakes. This is offset a little by decent games for Michigan and Minnesota. Overall though the B1G has scheduled very well.
5. Mountain West (4.1): The Mountain West does take a bit of a step up with the new formula, but nothing too special about this week's slate. Fresno State and Wyoming have decent games scheduled, but their aggregate score this week was a little lower with conference play underway.
6. Big East (3.75): A strong showing by a conference many fear is dying, the Big East had its best week with only Pitt hosting an FCS squad. Tough road games for Syracuse, Temple and Rutgers give them a good week to put the conference in the middle of the pack.
7. WAC (3.71): Karl Malone's alma mater (LA Tech) is off to be a sacrificial lamb (Karl Malone just don't want to blood squirtin' Karl Malone in the eye), and that is enough to offset a pair of cupcake games by Texas State and UTSA. For Texas-San Antonio, it's a contest against D-II's Northwestern Oklahoma State University, their second D-II contest of the season, and for the purposes of the Death to the BCS playoffs, UTSA is disqualified. I don't care that this is a WAC team, their out of conference schedule has been ludicrous.
8. Pac-12 (3): Everyone in conference is either off this week or playing each other, so to continue with aggregate scores would have been unfair solely because of these guys. A drop from 5th to 8th is a sign that there probably was some inflation due to conference size. The average score of 3 indicates that the average Pac-12 school scheduled 3 home games against mid majors, though there are a few tough road games and some cupcake scheduling.
9. SEC (2.57): Having 14 teams got them to the middle of the pack in the aggregate rankings, but the average is clearly a problem overall. The SEC has played a grand total of 2 road games against major conference opponents, though there have been some neutral site games involved. There have also been some conference games going on since Week 2, and the conference reputation isn't helped by 7 cupcake games, 1 this week by Texas A&M. To be fair, the SEC has paid the price a little bit thus far for its weak scheduling with some supposed sacrificial lambs losing to these FCS teams.
10. ACC (2.42): The score here is a little out of whack as Georgia Tech has only played one game out of conference (but it was against an FCS team). This week Maryland and Virginia hit the road for tough games and NC State hosts a cupcake. Florida State is also on serious watch after having played a pair of FCS schools. They definitely aren't deserving of their AP rank.
11. Big XII (2.3): Much of conference play will begin this week, but it's easy to see how this conference ranks last when of the 10 schools, all but Texas have played a cupcake. This week however, Baylor and Kansas hit the road while TCU and West Virginia host big conference teams.

The move to average scores does highlight the cupcake problem in college football, but it's not just the big schools that do it. The hope continues to be that everyone will schedule tougher when the playoffs begin. As for our Death to the BCS playoffs coming in December, these scores will be taken into account when picking the at large teams and seeding everyone.