NFC South Preview

For the NFC East Preview, click here.
For the AFC East Preview, click here.

We're a day away from the first games of the last week of the preseason. One last look at your fringe guys to round out the roster and be prepared to go into battle for a Super Bowl. We continue the swing around the country now by visiting the NFC South.


NFC South
Common opponents on schedule: NFC East, AFC West

1. Atlanta Falcons
2011 Record: 10-6, lost in NFC Wild Card round

Historically, the NFC South has been a constant changing of the guard. Since its formation in 2002, no team has ever successfully defended its division championship, and each team has won the division at least twice. That's the parity that the NFL is known for, and part of the reason why I feel the Falcons can get back on top of the division this year. They also have the personnel to get back on top this year. This is a very good offense even though Matt Ryan hasn't won a playoff game. He has legitimate weapons in Roddy White and Julio Jones, not to mention veterans Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez. A pretty tough home environment also helps. I'm not 100% sold on this defense, but I think they can do enough to win the division.

2. New Orleans Saints*
2011 Record: 13-3, lost in NFC Divisional round

I'm disappointed that despite being invited to their minicamp, Kyle Fiedorowicz did not get any further looks this offseason and is not on an NFL roster. If nothing else, he does get the honor of being in Madden '13. Not that Drew Brees needed another huge tight end when he's got Jimmy Graham to throw to all day, or a slew of wide receivers who helped give Brees the single season yardage record last season. Their defense did take a bit of a hit due to free agent departures as well as suspensions (the legitimacy of which is up for debate, but I don't really have an official stance on it). The biggest hit and the biggest reason why I don't have the Saints winning the division is the absence of Sean Payton from the sidelines. He's unquestionably one of the best coaches in the league and that open seat they're leaving everywhere for him like he's dead will be a huge obstacle for them to overcome, though I still think they take one of the wild cards (denoted by the asterisk).

3. Carolina Panthers
2011 Record: 6-10, missed playoffs

This is one of the better dual-threat offensive teams you'll see in the league. That DeAngelo Williams/Jonathan Stewart (assuming Stewart is healthy) combination is a deadly threat on the ground, and Steve Smith had a resurgent 2011 season. Rumor has it that top 2011 pick Cam Newton is a large reason as to why. He may suffer a bit of a sophomore slump as many do, but with a year of NFL experience under his belt this team can continue to grow. Jon Beason and Luke Kuechly will solidify this defense, and while these guys may not be in the playoff picture come November, this will be a fun team to watch and someone to look out for within the next couple years.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2011 Record: 4-12, missed playoffs

They were able to lure Vincent Jackson away from San Diego and have some talent on the defensive side of the ball, but I'm discouraged by the way Josh Freeman regressed last year. Maybe it was an off year, but while I think he'll move back towards his 2010 season I don't think he'll be quite as good. It doesn't help that he doesn't have much in the way of support on offense beyond Jackson (Blount is a pretty good runner, but I wouldn't call him great by any stretch) and the talent level in the rest of the division is just too much. Keep reloading and wait another year. Or get Jon Gruden to call 6 yard slants on every down.

Tomorrow we'll have the AFC South preview as well as a special feature. It only took me just under a year to get to 100 posts on Confessions of a Sportscaster. That's got to count for something, right?

AFC East Preview

For the NFC East preview, click here.

It's Monday morning, I still have a few days before my 4 day weekend, and there are still 7 more divisions left to tackle as we approach this final week of the preseason. Let's keep getting the East Coast out of the way by tackling the AFC East today.

AFC East
Common opponents on schedule: AFC South, NFC West

1. New England Patriots
2011 Record: 13-3, lost Super Bowl XLVI

10 years ago if you had asked me who the best quarterback in the NFL was, after 12-year-old me told you Brett Favre was amazing, I would have gotten serious and probably told you Peyton Manning was tops, not really being aware of who Tom Brady was. Within the next couple years it seemed pretty obvious Brady had supplanted Manning despite his gaudier numbers just because Brady put up good numbers and his team won. Today Brady has considerable weapons at his disposal with Wes Welker grabbing just about everything thrown his way and that scary tight end combo (see how scary Gronk is?!) to throw hundreds of passes to. If last year is any indication, the Pats will give up a good chunk of yardage every week, but their offense should more than be able to make up for the points given up. I also figure (as my friend Nathaniel does in the link above) that Darth Hoodie's defense won't get quite as many takeaways as last year.

2. Buffalo Bills
2011 Record: 6-10, missed playoffs

This is a tough division to pick after New England winning it and making it back to the playoffs. Buffalo showed a lot of promise at the start of last season before falling way back down to Earth. They did spend money this offseason to lure Mario Williams to help anchor the defensive line. I still feel that opponents can gain some yardage against this defense, the offense should be in pretty good shape with Ryan Fitzpatrick adjusting following his long-term deal and guys like Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson (assuming he keeps his head on straight) helping him out. They won't make the playoffs I don't think, but they're continuing to move in the right direction.

3. New York Jets
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

This team's window is closed. While most teams will have some disagreements and maybe some scuffles during training camp, ESPN seemed fixated on multiple fights in practice amongst the Jets. They have some good skill players on offense like Shonn Greene and Santonio Holmes (assuming he can keep his head on straight), but Mark Sanchez is not a good quarterback. At best, he's an average one who can manage a game, and while I like Tim Tebow, he's can't make most of the throws an NFL quarterback needs to. This defense can still do some damage but they are a far cry from what they were 2 or 3 years ago.

4. Miami Dolphins
2011 Record: 6-10, missed playoffs

The Dolphins might be taking a step in the right direction. Starting a rookie quarterback is a bit of a gamble, but they're prepared to send Ryan Tannehill out to battle the AFC East schedule. It's a fairly forgiving schedule for him without too many tough out-of-division opponents, but he doesn't have a lot of weapons on offense (though he'll have time to find them being protected by Jake Long and company). Defense raises huge question marks though, as I think teams can both run and pass on these guys. You're probably looking at an early draft pick, especially if the on-court antics of Dwayne Wade infect the locker room. Heck, it's already spread out to the West Coast among non-humans.

Click to enlarge. From California Highway Patrol Computer Aided Dispatch, 8/19/12

Tomorrow we'll go down and attack the NFC South as we make our way around the country . We're a quarter of the way there!

NFC East Preview

Three weeks is a long time to be on hiatus from writing. But duty calls at work and I didn't want to spam this blog with more anti-PSU apologist drivel or go on about indisputable facts pertaining to how bad the Dream Team would have beaten this year's Olympic team. But with the NFL regular season almost upon us, it's time I did some catching up... heavy catching up.

Every day for the next 8 days I will write a preview about each of the NFL's divisions ranking each team and giving thought to their season at hand. Stay tuned as well later this week as I'll be unveiling an interactive plan for the 2012 campaign with some help. But for now, let's turn our attention to the division of the defending Super Bowl champs.

NFC East
Common opponents on schedule: NFC South, AFC North

1. New York Giants
2011 Record: 9-7, won Super Bowl XLVI

Last year near the end of the regular season into the playoffs, people began making the case for Eli Manning as an elite quarterback. It's a case I agree with, though I think he falls just short of the upper echelon of elite quarterbacks (right now, Rodgers, Brees and Brady) but could easily be considered a top 5 QB. (You can see my full rankings here.) Nonetheless he is a force to be reckoned with, especially late in a close game. He has a fair amount of weapons in Ahmad Bradshaw, Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, though the loss of Brandon Jacobs will hurt. What really scares me though is the defense, anchored by that scary good front line (JPP, Umenyiora and Tuck) that will pressure opposing quarterbacks. This team has a good shot at a repeat as long as they stay healthy (always the magical formula for success).

2. Philadelphia Eagles
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

Health is always a concern here, especially considering how fragile Michael Vick can be. But the so-called "Dream Team" from last year severely underachieved to .500 ball (granted, again, Vick was hurt) despite coming away with a huge haul in the shortened free agency period following the lockout. This team on paper still looks good even if Vick is hampered by his rib injury and won't start the opener. Lesean McCoy is a solid running back, and Mike Kafka would still have guys like Desean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to throw to, with a tough defense led by Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. I don't think they'll be a playoff team this year but they'll be in the hunt right up until the end.

3. Dallas Cowboys
2011 Record: 8-8, missed playoffs

It's gotten to the point the last couple of years where people rag on Tony Romo and call him overrated. I would argue (as I'm sure others would) that he's become so overrated he's now underrated. He puts up very good numbers in the regular season, but also can make some mistakes at inopportune moments. I'm not entirely sold on a DeMarco Murray/Felix Jones top 2 at the tailback spot, and I feel that this defense can and will be thrown on a lot, but these guys will be competitive. I just think Jerry Jones was off a few months ago when he said the Cowboys' window was closing; it was never really open to begin with (and contrary to what he and his players might say, I don't think it's open this year.)

4. Washington Redskins
2011 Record: 5-11, missed playoffs

I hate to seem like I'm adding to the East Coast bias, but I think this is one of the strongest divisions top to bottom in the NFL (I'd rank the NFC North for sure above these guys, but not sure beyond that.) Having Robert Griffin III as your new quarterback certainly helps. While I think he'll have some struggles when defenses adjust to him a little bit, I think he'll definitely help this team win some ball games. I'm not completely sold on their other offensive skill players, but their defense doesn't look too bad on paper. They'll be in ball games; I just don't know that they'll have the firepower to put them over the top a lot. Guys like Pierre Garcon and Tim Hightower can only do so much.

That's it for now. Tomorrow I will have the AFC East for you as I bust my butt to crank out 32 team previews in 8 days. 

Swimming Off Into the Sunset

I had wanted to write this a couple weeks ago leading up to the London Olympic Games, but workloads and a trip to South Haven, Michigan threw that off. I was able to watch parts of the opening ceremony and I've caught some of the different events over the past week-plus. Last night though I was able to catch the tape delay of the most significant swimming event we'll see for a while.

Photo from USA Today taken by Rob Schumacher.

I've been a fan of Phelps since he first burst onto the scene in 2004, but really enjoyed watching him in 2008. My brother did too, even taking to doing swimming moves on the carpet in our living room. We were blessed to get to watch a legend write itself before our very eyes. He owns some of the most iconic moments in Olympic history and while I'm sure he wanted more than just the 4 gold and 2 silver medals he came away with in London, but he said he's accomplished everything he set out to in his illustrious career. He's also inspired a number of kids, especially my brother.

 Obviously I'm not a world-class athlete... or even really on a local scale (otherwise I wouldn't be writing here). But from a young age my mom, who worked as a lifeguard in her youth, taught both me and my brother how to swim by having us enrolled in swimming lessons at multiple venues. I always considered myself a good swimmer, decent by competitive standards. But Michael Phelps is in another world all his own.

In January of 2011 my family got the opportunity of a lifetime. The Make-a-Wish Foundation flew us out to Baltimore for a few days of getting to see some of the city, walk around the inner harbor, visit the aquarium there, and ultimately make a trip to the Meadowbrook Aquatic Club to fulfill my brother's wish of getting to swim with Michael Phelps, an afternoon I'll never forget.

I'm pretty sure this picture says it all.

We floated and chatted for a while after watching Michael and a few other swimmers train (with some amazing equipment including a huge bucket of water attached to a swimmer for strength training or something along those lines... really something to see in person), we also did some laps in the pool. My brother climbed on Michael's back and he swam freestyle back and forth in something of an informal race against me. I just wanted to see how I measured up compared to the greatest swimmer of all time. To put it in perspective: he had largely taken a huge layoff from swimming after Beijing, was carrying a fairly heavy 11 year old on his back... and probably wasn't giving it his all. Taking all that into account, it was all I could do just to keep pace with them. It was incredible.

We had also planned for my brother to race Michael. They decided on backstroke and had to negotiate pretty hard to find a fair race. My brother initially wanted Michael to do 20 laps for his 1, and Michael played hardball to get him down to 7. It was pretty funny to see a guy who 2 and a half years before had gone 8 for 8 in gold medals telling an 11 year old that swimming 20 laps to his 1 wasn't going to be fair, but Logan seemed dead set on the 20 laps for a while before we finally convinced him to go with 7. It turned out to be the perfect number, as Logan beat him when Michael finished his 6th lap. My friend joked yesterday that that loss bugged Phelps through the beginning of the London games and might explain his fourth place finish in that opening race.

Over the course of those 3 or so hours, we bonded with a very down-to-earth man who would become the most decorated Olympian of all time. I think he was touched to spend time with my family that day, and somewhere he has one of our MDA Telethon T-shirts from 2010 signed by my brother. It was another unexpected moment that really captured the day in our minds.

 

If you were ever looking for an athlete for your kids to root for, Michael Phelps was the perfect one. Say what you will about the bong incident in 2009 or his time off from the pool after Beijing, but he absolutely earned those 22 medals in 3 different Games, and has been humble through it all, thankful for his teammates, and appreciative of many fans.

Thank you Michael, for all the memories, both in the pool and in our hearts. Enjoy your retirement. You've earned it.

The Sports Culture Problem

I am a sports fan, but it should not take precedence over life and death. Not ever.


I wrote these words back in January pertaining to both Joe Paterno and the Kyle Williams situation. I looked back at some of my words and I'm a little dumbfounded at how naive I was to think Paterno had merely been a guy who "wished he could have done more" considering what has come to light in the past 6 months. I revisit it now because these words really resonate today following Penn State's punishment for failing to do anything about Jerry Sandusky.

Many of us place sports as a very high priority in our lives. We carve out time in our schedules to watch our teams play all the big games. Many are not afraid to drop big bucks to go see their teams in person or buy memorabilia. Sports have become big business, even in the so-called "amateur" ranks like intercollegiate athletics. The big schools lose tons of money just for the "honor and prestige" of playing in a meaningless bowl game. We have March Madness that takes offices and sports bars by storm with bracketology. You have sports blogs everywhere like this one, or Geoffy's about the Bulls, or my friend Nathaniel starting up an NFL blog within the past couple days. Eventually we have to weigh the importance of sports against everything else in life.

And that's where the Penn State scandal comes into play. We had an assistant coach who retired after one incident of child sexual abuse, then saw it come to the attention of the school again a few years later, only for the most powerful men at the institution to do nothing about it. Once they were caught, a legendary head coach gets fired and many students are upset about it. As more facts get released, many people realize how duped they were by the bad leaders at Penn State. And yet there are some people that continue to defend the institution, despite all the evidence for why the school deserves condemnation.

Reading through the message board in the ESPN article I linked to above, I was dumbfounded reading many fans (a large chunk of which are Penn State students, alums, or fans, though not all) claiming that the punishment is unfair or too harsh, or even targets the wrong people since this supposedly "wasn't a football issue". This highlights the problem with the football culture at Penn State. To this day, some people are still more concerned with what happened to the program than what happened to the unfortunate victims whose lives will never be the same after their time in State College, PA.


Regarding the punishments, I think they are fair. Funds need to be sent out to deal with child abuse and preferably at programs that teach people what to watch out for in a potential abuser or signs that a child might have been abused as well as support for victims. But the sanctions on the football program are also entirely justified. A pedophile who was a coach for some time and later a major face of a "charity" used the Penn State football program to lure in potential victims, groom them, and take advantage of them. The program was not only the bait, but the willing co-conspirator in that Joe Paterno reportedly talked 3 other head honchos out of turning Sandusky over to the proper authorities in 2001, after there had already been a report of sexual abuse. Once is one thing. If you hear 2 different reports about 2 different incidents from 2 different people, odds are there is some truth there.

Penn State apologists still continue to defend their school and late coach, saying that with Paterno passed on, Sandusky behind bars, Spanier fired, and Schultz and Curley facing jail time as well, the perpetrators are gone and no punishment is needed as the legal system is taking care of it. While this is true to an extent, the program needs punishment. The NCAA needed an example of what could happen when an institution treats an athletic program with more care and concern than the welfare of children, and said culture at Penn State was obvious and needed to be rooted out. Many called for the death penalty, though I think that would have been a little overkill. This will still be a painful lesson for Happy Valley. You cannot treat a football program with more care and concern than children who are being raped. Period.

This wrongful prioritizing is rampant in people quick to say this unfairly punishes the student athletes who will no longer get the experience of a bowl game, though players are free to transfer and coaches from other schools are already circling the big time guys. Penn State is lucky they still even have a football team and didn't get the death penalty. The businesses in the area can still get their game day traffic and hopefully we can see some of the proceeds from PSU football go to the victims or a child abuse charity. This punishment is intended to change the culture at Penn State from a "win-at-all-costs"

But the most important thing to take away from this incident is a warning for all of us, not just Penn Staters. We are human. We all make mistakes, some worlds bigger than others. But to an extent we are part of the sports culture problem. Some fans have a win at all costs mentality, and while it's not necessarily a bad thing, Penn State proved it can be dangerous. We all need to remember that regardless of the sport and the team, sports and winning are not the most important thing. It's connecting with other people, having respect for your fellow human beings, and spending time with the people we love. No amount of championships can ever compete with the love you get from friends and family.

And if you do decide that the program and wins are all that matters, what price are you willing to pay?

Welcoming an Old Cub

In my bedroom above where my TV sits is a large shelf that holds a ton of medals and trophies. Many of these are scholarly in nature; the old BookIt! program from Pizza Hut gave out medals if you completed your goal every month in a given school year, and I have several trophies from the reading program at St. Paul's Lutheran School in Aurora where I went from preschool through 8th grade. I also have several sports items, including a lot of medals and trophies from my park district T-Ball and soccer days, as well as letters from St. Paul's for my 4 years in both soccer and basketball.

I also have a few baseballs up there, some I got at various baseball games, other souvenir, non-game balls from different locales. Some are autographed by various Major League players like Jhonny Peralta, Scot Shields, or Shawn Estes, to name 3. My dad gave me a ball signed by the members of one or both of the Twins World Series teams. But there's one ball that sits front and center that means a lot more than all the rest put together.

MLB At the Break

At the unofficial halfway point of the Major League season, it's been something of a fun season, but nothing too out of the ordinary has happened. Some teams have surprised in both directions, and we will probably see some fun races in the last 2 1/2 months. I've been able to make it to 3 games in 3 different cities so far this year (and would have made it to Wrigley a second time but unfortunately had to work on Memorial Day.) So with the break in full swing, here are my thoughts on the first half so far.

My Cubbies

I knew this year was going to be bad. I had prepared for it when we hired Theo and company to overhaul the roster. And this year has seen 2 feelings: one of optimism of overachieving to 90 losses and the other of despair from knowing the team was bad, but not realizing how bad until watching them. As per the usual Cub team, the starting pitching is decent (other than Chris Volstad) if not solid, the bullpen sucks, and the team tends to leave guys in scoring position. But there have been bright spots in the form of Starlin Castro continuing to do his thing (hit well, make mental as well as fielding errors), Bryan Lahair getting off to a hot start, and the Cub debut of Anthony Rizzo who has been excellent so far. This team could still lose 100 games but they're providing some hope for the future.

Biggest Surprise: Chicago White Sox

I put the South Siders in the basement of the AL Central before the season began. Many Sox fans didn't expect much from this team either, but they have been excellent this season. I had expected the pitching to not be that great, but guys like Chris Sale and Jake Peavy have given the team a chance to win every time out. Paul Konerko continues to be an excellent hitter, and Adam Dunn (as I figured) isn't as horrible as last year even though he's still on pace to break the record for most strikeouts in a season. Regardless, this team could very well be playing a little ways into October. This doesn't have the same feel as that 2005 squad, but they are still a dangerous squad.

Biggest Disappointment: Philadelphia Phillies
I fell for the Phillies this year, and it seems foolishly so. Granted, Ryan Howard just came back, but I figured they would have the arms to tread water. The offense hasn't been able to support Cliff Lee, with him finally winning a game here recently. With the talent in the rest of the division, I have a feeling they won't climb out of the cellar by the time all is said and done.

1st Half Awards

• AL MVP: Josh Hamilton (TEX)- .306/27/75 is nothing to sneeze at, especially on a division leading team. He also leads the AL in OPS at 1.016, one of only 2 guys over 1.000 (David Ortiz is the other). The 2010 AL MVP would have to seriously cool off or see someone get red hot the last 2 months to challenge his numbers.
• NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen (PIT)- Maybe I'm insane, but this kid has made the leap the last couple years. He's up to .362/18/60 splits with 14 steals and 17 doubles and a 1.039 OPS. This one was harder to decide on since cases can be made for David Wright (.353/8/44), Joey Votto (.348/14/48) and Ryan Braun (.306/24/61) with Votto's probably being strongest with Cincy contending as of right now. But McCutchen's all around excellence is a solid pick, and one I will stand by at this stage.
• AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (CHW)- Tough call between him and Jered Weaver of the Angels. Looking at their numbers they are very comparable in ERA (Weaver 1.96, Sale 2.19),WHIP (0.90 for Weaver, 0.95 for Sale), BAA (.188 for Weaver, .198 for Sale)and record (Weaver is 10-1, Sale 10-2). While Weaver leads these 3 categories by small margins, Sale has pitched more innings and has a higher strikeout rate. He wins by a hair.
• NL Cy Young: R.A. Dickey (NYM)- Who would have guessed a knuckleballer would be 12-1 at the break, lead the NL in WHIP (0.93), and be among the leaders in innings (120) and strikeouts (123)? I certainly didn't. It's a bit of a snub that he didn't start the All-Star Game but he's earned this first half award.

Best Moment of the 2012 Season
Probably would have to be Arnie the Alpaca getting into Wrigley to see the Cubs beat the Dodgers as well as making it to Rangers Ballpark at Arlington. Josh Hamilton's power binge in Baltimore back in May is second.  I think third place would be Kerry Wood's final Major League appearance striking out the only batter he faced and leaving to a standing ovation at Wrigley, and getting a snarky tweet from Ian Stewart is 4th (for the record- thought his reaction was pretty funny. Wish him well on his recovery.)

Playoff Forecast

I ate crow a little bit already, but I'm going to open myself up to that again with predictions for the second half. In the American League, the Rangers and Yankees, respectively, will probably end up taking their respective divisions. The Central is tougher to forecast, with the Tigers and Indians looming close to the White Sox. I think the Tigers will come back and win the division though behind guys like Verlander, but the Sox will be in it till the end. As for wild cards, I think Tampa will sneak past Baltimore for one and the White Sox can pilfer the other from the Angels.

In the National League, I think Washington can hold off Atlanta and the Mets for their first East division crown since they moved to the nation's capital. The way the Giants have come on lately, I think they top the Dodgers for tops in the West. The Central is not that good, but has several contenders. I don't know that I trust Pittsburgh yet despite their presence in first place right now. I think the Reds overtake them at the end. For the wild cards, Pittsburgh can probably still grab one while the Dodgers swipe the other.

Here's to more fun baseball the rest of the way!