Create-A-Bowl

Yeah, I know, I know. The BCS is done for the year so I should stop complaining. Confessions of a Sportscaster is starting to turn into an anti-BCS sounding board more and more every day.

I know that currently the BCS has a cap of 35 bowl games by virtue of a temporary moratorium, meaning as of right now, 70 of the 120 teams will play a postseason game. But why not one more to share the wealth (i.e. line some pockets)?

I've mentioned Death to the BCS on this blog before, even recommended it personally to a few people. One of the people who's picked up the book is my old friend Geoff Clark, he of the Grabbing the Bull Horns blog that is covering Da Bulls fairly in depth. He texted me this morning about his experience in reading it. We occasionally have awesome brainstorming sessions, and this turned into another one. Everything in parentheses that follows is thoughts I had at the time we were discussing this or notes about things related to what he or I say.

Geoffy: "Reading that book now. Can't believe they act like bowls profit everybody."
Me: "They want to keep up the idea so they can get richer. Told you it was eye-opening."
G: "If this is what happens to D-1 schools, I can even imagine what [North Central College athletic director] Jim Miller would be going through if it happened here."
Me: "We'd be out of competitive sports. Hell, we'd probably have been out after a few years."

Then Geoffy gets totally brilliant.

Game Notes: Elmhurst College @ North Central College (1/11/12)

Final Score
Elmhurst 64, NCC 52

Summary
Playing without 3 of their main rotation players (Callie Rezin, Kelsey Cooling, and Larynn Shumaker) for undisclosed reasons, the Cardinals (6-8, 0-3) started off hot once again, leading by as many as 6 early in the game before the Blue Jays (12-2, 3-0) started to come back. It was a 12-8 NCC lead when Elmhurst called a timeout to settle down and reset. They quickly stormed back and the teams traded leads, with Elmhurst up 27-25 at the half. In the 2nd, they started quickly, and the Cardinals got back within 3 at 31-28 but would get no closer. Elmhurst led by as much as 15 late, too big a gap with too little time on the clock.

Key Stats

• NCC: 19-55 FG (34.5%), 2-8 3PT. You're not going to win a lot of games shooting only 35 percent from the floor and struggling from deep. To Elmhurst's credit, they played tight perimeter defense, only letting Jenny Swanson get off 3 attempts (she made 1), which took away a strength of the Cardinals. Many of the other misses were terrible attempts at layups. It seems like sometimes they will attack the basket with the intent of getting fouled, but you have to make a reasonable attempt at the basket rather than relying on the officials to get you to the line.
• Sophie Newson (NCC): 6-11 FG, 0-1 3PT, 4-4 FT, 16 pts, 5 reb, 2 stl. Looked good in her return to the starting lineup. She played well in the first half then tapered off later, including keying the wrong end of a four point swing that pretty much tilted momentum to Elmhurst permanently. She got a steal and was trying to start a fast break, got to the lane, then tried to feed one of the Emily's. It was deflected and Sophie got it back, then tried to force it again, this time seeing it stolen and having Elmhurst score an easy bucket. Instead of a 5 point game, it was a 9 point game. Other than that one play, Sophie did a good job of attacking the basket, something I'd like to see her do more of.
• Meghan Merklein (EC): 13-22 FG, 5-8 3PT, 0-1 FT, 31 pts, 6 reb, 4 ast. It also usually doesn't help comeback attempts when an opposing player absolutely goes off. For a stretch of much of the 2nd half, I got the feeling every shot she took was going in. And guess what? They were. I saw her run back down the court several times smiling. Her 31 tonight was a career high, possibly makes her the top scorer in the conference (over Illinois Wesleyan's Olivia Lett, who had 22 in IWU's win over Augie). The Cardinals tried everything to stop her, it was just her night.

Cardinal Turnover Watch
A new feature, just because it seems necessary. I set the over-under on turnovers for the Cardinals tonight at 20.5. I took the over, official scorer Tye Thompson took the under. His faith was well placed. The Cardinals only turned it over 18 times tonight (compared to 16 by Elmhurst). The chief culprit was once again Helen Muleya, keeping her pace up by turning it over 4 times tonight. Though to be fair to Helen, she is a great perimeter defender, and it showed in her 4 steals.

Final Thoughts
I was prepared for a blowout tonight, and it didn't really happen. Elmhurst came out sluggish to start, and the Cardinals played fairly well. They just got outplayed by a tough team with a hot shooter, much better than how they looked for much of last week's affair against Carthage. They'll get their players back and have some positives to take into Wheaton on Saturday. I'm debating about making the trek out there, so there may be a couple road reports on Saturday. If not, I will for sure be back next week as the Cardinals welcome Illinois Wesleyan.

Paper Champions

I know, I'm a day late to the party. Yes, Alabama won a football game yesterday. Yes, they embarrassed LSU on the field yesterday. Are they national champions? Absolutely not.

I did not watch any of the "national championship" game yesterday. I didn't even watch any highlights. Any information I got out of it was gleaned from Twitter or Facebook pretty much. I had no interest in watching the game, and some people were the same way, with the ratings going down 8 percent from a year ago. There were still a large number of TV's tuned into the game, but I do have to wonder if the people who chose to tune it out had the same reasoning as I did.

About half an hour to an hour before kickoff, I was checking my Twitter and saw a number of tweets about the upcoming game, and that prompted me to tweet, "Too many tweets about the BCS Championship Game." I was a little more detailed on Facebook.

"LSU-Alabama is not a national title game. It's an exhibition rematch between two SEC teams decided by greedy conference commissioners, biased coaches' polls, and poorly written computer formulas. Call me when there's a playoff to decide that these two teams should play for a real title as opposed to this sham of a paper championship. Death to the BCS!"

Shortly after, I was asked by a friend who I thought belonged in that game. Don't get me wrong. Based on the current system, LSU deserved to be here. Alabama had a case, but so did teams like Oklahoma State or Oregon. I know both teams lost a game as well, but both won their conferences. Alabama didn't even play for the conference title. Yes, their one loss was to LSU in overtime. But I can't support a championship game decided the way it is.

I noticed last night that the NCAA and the BCS were in talks about possible changes to the postseason format. I thought I saw something earlier today about the committee deciding against even a plus-one. Big mistake. Even a plus-one is an improvement over the current system. Here's my favorite quote from BCS executive director Bill Hancock:

"Whatever we do, we have to protect the regular season. I think the larger the playoff field, the more damage to the regular season."

So, let me get this straight. You want to preserve the regular season, yet totally disregard it with your decisions for the national champion? They BCS wants to claim that "Every game counts", except LSU-Bama I didn't seem to count because they got a rematch. Rick Reilly argued, "How does winning 1 of 2 make you a champion?" and "They're going to play a rubber game of this best-of-3 LSU-Ala thing, right?"

As far as I'm concerned, the Tide won a glorified exhibition game. By all indications, they looked impressive in doing it. They might be the best team in the nation. I don't know that for sure though. Had they gone through a gauntlet of teams like this one or this one, then beat LSU or whoever, yes, you could call them a champion.

Simply put, if you want to have the best two teams play for the real national title, you need a playoff. Include the teams that win their conferences, and add in deserving "at-large" teams that usually will end up only losing a game or 2 all year. Have them go at each other for four weeks until only one is left standing. If it brings two SEC teams together again, fine. They will have earned it. But don't crown a "national champion" based on the current system.

Wild Wild Card

Well, two out of four isn't bad I guess... even when your pick for the AFC title gets beat.

I caught bits and pieces of 3 out of the 4 games this weekend, unfortunately missing the best play of the weekend in real time. But I think this was the first time since 2006 that we saw all the home teams win in the wild card round, so it's down to all the division champions. It was nice to see a team like Houston win its playoff debut in front of its home crowd, and for the magic of Tim Tebow to return.

I'm typing this as I have ESPN First Take on, and go figure they start with the "All He Does Is Win!" remix.

The divisional round might only hope to offer such drama, so I'm going to revise my picks a little bit since the matchups have changed.

New Orleans @ San Francisco
I'm going to stick to my guns on this pick from last week. The Saints made it two straight weeks where the Lions gave up 45 points and Drew Brees continued to look like, well, Drew Brees. San Francisco is at home and has that tough defense. Brees has yet to win a playoff game on the road, but I figure he can break that trend this week. Saints over 49ers.

Denver @ New England
I was among the people who picked against Denver yesterday because the Steelers play tough defense, even though they were really banged up. At the same time, I underestimated Tim Tebow and the rest of his team. Credit the defense for stepping up and keeping Big Ben under wraps for the most part, and credit guys like Demariyus Thomas for catching stuff thrown at him and using his great speed to get a ton of yards. Against New England? They're healthy and they've already beaten the Broncos once. I see Tebow and company staying in it early again, but in Foxboro, I don't think Tebow wins. Patriots over Broncos.

Houston @ Baltimore
The Bengals were not good on defense Saturday, and Andy Dalton turned it over too many times. But he stayed grounded, and he'll learn from the experience and come back next year to help the Bengals try to make it back. The Texans now have to go to Baltimore to face a very tough Ravens team. They've been inconsistent but have beaten good teams when they've played them. If they don't go pass happy with Joe Flacco, they'll be fine. Ravens over Bengals.

New York @ Green Bay
The Giants' defense was fantastic yesterday, shutting out the Falcons' offense, but this is the Falcons, who just don't seem to have it come January (0-3 in the postseason with Mike Smith and Matt Ryan). They'll get there eventually if they can get another home game, but the Giants seem to be peaking at the right time. This concerns me a little bit as a Packer fan, especially since I remember the 2007 NFC Title game. Both teams are better now than they were that year. Green Bay had a week to get healthy, and they're at home. They'll be ready. The Giants gave them a great game at home, but at the Frozen Tundra? They'll be competitive again, but I think Rodgers and company are ready to make their run at a repeat. Packers over Giants.

I had to adjust the winner of only one game (since I had the Steelers in the Super Bowl again), but I stand by my other picks. I'm now going to go back to listening to the shouting match between Skip Bayless and the world.

NCAA Pipe Dream Playoffs: Death to the BCS Edition

I finished off my version of the playoffs here earlier today, but I did admit in an earlier post that yes, there are flaws to the system. After I finished reading Death to the BCS, I realized I left out a crucial detail in that I didn't give all the conference champions a chance to play for the national title, instead taking the top 16 teams from the BCS rankings. This left out a number of teams that should have stayed. To correct this injustice, I will redo the playoffs quickly with an adjusted bracket. The playoff teams are as follows:

1. LSU (13-0, SEC champions)
2. Oklahoma State (11-1, Big 12 champions)
3. Oregon (11-2, Pac-12 champions)
4. Alabama (11-1, at large berth)
5. Stanford (11-1, at large berth)
6. Wisconsin (11-2, Big 10 champions)
7. Boise State (11-1, at large berth)
8. TCU (10-2, Mountain West champions)
9. Houston (12-1, at large berth)
10. Virginia Tech (10-2, at large berth)
11. West Virginia (9-3 Big East champions)
12. Clemson (10-3, ACC champions)
13. Southern Mississippi (11-2, Conference USA champions)
14. Arkansas State (10-2, Sun Belt champions)
15. Northern Illinois (10-3, MAC champions)
16. Louisiana Tech (8-4, WAC champions)

It's definitely a change from the Pipe Dream playoff system, but I like this one just as much. Only 9 of the 16 teams from those made it here (which we can attribute to adding in the conference champions and changing around at large bids). The at-large decisions were very tough to make. Alabama, Boise State, Houston and Stanford were the easiest picks since they all only lost once in the regular season. Virginia Tech was the toughest decision to make with how many 2-loss teams there were, but I felt they had the best argument (both losses came to teams in the playoffs).

NCAA Pipe Dream Playoffs: Finals

For Round 1 results, click here.
For Round 2 results, click here.
For Round 3 results, click here.

Out of protest but also out of having a lazy day with my girlfriend on Monday/being busy on Tuesday and Wednesday, I didn't watch any of the Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl or Orange Bowl and didn't turn on the Fiesta Bowl until the missed field goal at the end of regulation by Jordan Williamson. So since the major bowl games were scheduled for particular days in advance, I started running the simulations on Monday. Since this is the bowl game round, I'm simulating every game 5 times to ensure better accuracy. Weather is taken into account for outdoor stadiums, and once again all simulations provided by WhatIfSports.com.

Rose Bowl
(12)Baylor vs (10)Wisconsin
Game 1: BAY 34, WIS 20
Game 2: WIS 44, BAY 37
Game 3: BAY 42, WIS 31
Game 4: WIS 41, BAY 28
Game 5: WIS 21, BAY 14
Final: Wisconsin 34, Baylor 31

Fiesta Bowl
(8)Kansas State vs (6)Arkansas
Game 1: ARK 42, KSU 24
Game 2: ARK 27, KSU 20
Game 3: ARK 33, KSU 17
Game 4: ARK 17, KSU 0
Game 5: ARK 27, KSU 19
Final: Arkansas 29, Kansas State 16

Sugar Bowl
(4) Stanford vs (7) Boise State
Game 1: BSU 41, STAN 24
Game 2: STAN 30, BSU 23
Game 3: STAN 50, BSU 49 (OT)
Game 4: STAN 30, BSU 26
Game 5: STAN 39, BSU 34
Final: Stanford 35, Boise State 34

Orange Bowl
(5)Oregon vs (3)Oklahoma State
Game 1: ORE 54, OSU 47
Game 2: ORE 42, OSU 21
Game 3: OSU 34, ORE 10
Game 4: ORE 35, OSU 31
Game 5: OSU 47, ORE 35
Final: Oregon 35, Oklahoma State 34

 NCAA Pipe Dream Championship Game
(1)LSU vs (2)Alabama
Game 1: ALA 46, LSU 27
Game 2: ALA 52, LSU 24
Game 3: ALA 26, LSU 24
Game 4: ALA 30, LSU 28
Game 5: LSU 41, ALA 40 (OT)
Final: Alabama 39, LSU 28


 
NCAA Pipe Dream Playoff Bracket can be found here.
Losers' Bracket can be found here.
(Brackets created through betterbracketmaker.com.)

I'm counting the results of the Pipe Dream Championship as my BCS title game prediction, even though the BCS is a load of crap. But look at how many great matchups there were in this Bowl round. A lot of 3-2 splits on the simulations, which made for some complicated math, but made it fun. The teams I put into the tournament may not have worked, but the playoff system itself does. It creates intriguing matchups. What more could you want? Other than, you know, more money in your pocket if you're a conference commisioner or bowl executive.


I promised a tournament bracket based on the system created by the authors of Death to the BCS, which I still need to get to. I have to figure out a seeding system for it, and hopefully have something done fairly quickly. And maybe one day soon we can stop having a pipe dream playoff and get one for real.

Game Notes: Carthage College @ North Central College (1/4/12)

Final Score
(25)Carthage 72, NCC 48

Summary
The Cardinals (6-6, 0-1) actually got off to a good start last night and led by as much as 3 early on. The Lady Reds (10-2, 1-0) tied the game at 12 and never trailed the rest of the way, slowly making it a one-sided affair. The Cardinals did all they could before the half to try and stay in the game, but wouldn't get any closer than 7 points. Shots weren't falling and the defense wasn't great, as a 36-25 halftime deficit ballooned to as much as 29. Pretty much what you'd expect from a ranked team.

Key Stats

• Field Goal Pct: Carthage: 62.5% (30-48), NCC 35.2% (19-54). Subpar shooting nights usually result in losses, especially when you let the other team shoot over 60 percent. Yesterday I praised North Central's defense, and they did well on the perimeter, but there were WAY too many easy passes inside resulting in easy layups (see below). Meanwhile North Central after its early strong start couldn't get a bucket to go, shooting only 32% in the 2nd half.
• Carthage: 42 points in the paint. The interior defense tonight, normally solid, was poor yesterday. Cailee Corcoran (20 points on 9-11 shooting, plus a pair of freebies) and Diana Jacklin (16 points on 8-12 shooting) tore apart the paint with easy layup after easy layup. When the other team is getting tons of points from its frontcourt, you're in trouble.
• Helen Muleya (NCC): 3-11 FG, 1-2 3PT, 7 pts, 1 ast, 5 to. I like Helen, but I had to point this out. She's clearly the best perimeter defender on the team and can ignite fast breaks, but she struggles at the point in the halfcourt offense, especially with decision making. Coming into the game, she averaged 4 turnovers per game, and matched that at halftime. You cannot have your floor general turn it over that many times (especially when one of those was an inexcusable 5 second call). To make matters worse, she had horrible shot selection. Most of her misses were weak attempts at layups in traffic. I don't know if she was trying to draw fouls or what the case was, but she needs to go stronger to the basket or not go up at all if there are people in the way. Drive and dish a little bit; she has good post players in the Emily's (Collins and Murphy), and off the bench as well.

Final Thoughts
I'd be lying if I said I didn't expect to get blown out. A ranked team against a squad that has really struggled much of the year? I was impressed we were in the game early, then the Cardinals reminded me that they run the Clogged Toilet Offense. I was shocked at how easily Corcoran and Jacklin were able to score on us last night. On the plus side, while the Cards did turn it over 20 times, they forced 27 turnovers by the Lady Reds. A lot of nights that will get the job done, but not last night, where low post presence ruled. The Cardinals are back in action Saturday at Augustana, and my next Game Notes will be next week.