Super Bowl XLIX Predictions and Prop Bets

We're almost here! The day that should be a national holiday is upon us, and with it, the biggest game of the year.

Slowly but surely, I've gotten over the Epic Collapse of 2015 that resulted in this matchup in Arizona. It's a matchup a lot of people predicted coming into the year, and was made all the easier by the fact that these two teams were the top seeds in their respective conferences.

So who will win on Sunday: Seattle or New England? And what about the more fun part of Super Bowl Sunday: the prop bets?

Given the significance of the day, I've recruited some help. After giving me a run for my money in the COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em this season, Adam is back to do prop bets with me. We will have our picks for a variety of bets following our Super Bowl predictions. All bets are taken from a list provided by Bovada. Let's get to it!

Game Notes: (MBK) Millikin University @ North Central College (1/28/15)

Final Score
Millikin 69, NCC 66

Game Summary
The Big Blue (8-11, 3-5) overcame an early 3-0 deficit to take early control of the game. The Cardinals (14-5, 4-4), after falling out of the D3hoops.com Top 25 this week, struggled to respond out of the gate but managed to keep it close, tying the game at 22 before Millikin went on another run, outscoring the Cardinals 15-6 to close out the half up 37-28. The Big Blue opened up their lead to as many as 14 coming out of the break, but the Cardinals rallied back, including a thunderous fast break dunk by Jack Burchett, to close the gap. A Rosenberg layup tied the game at 62, and a Burchett jumper tied it again at 64, but the Cardinals went four straight possessions failing to take advantage of a chance to grab the lead, and the Big Blue escaped Naperville with an upset win after a pair of three pointers in the final 20 seconds were off the mark.

Key Stats

• TJ Sims (MIL): 12-17 FG (1-2 3PT), 4-5 FT; 29 pts, 4 reb (1 off), 6 ast, 1 stl. Really, the best way to describe his game is, "Wow." Sims was hitting pretty much every shot he took last night. His jumper was fluid all game, and he hit some impossible shots. Pull up jumpers with a man in his face, a sideways-falling jumper... but most crucially, with time running down up one, he drove out of control to the basket, threw up a falling desperation layup... and bounced it home off the glass. It was that kind of night for him.
• Kevin Honn (NCC): 8-17 FG (1-4 3PT), 4-6 FT; 21 pts, 8 reb (3 off), 5 ast, 1 stl. Way back in November, I talked about how much of a key figure Honn would play for the Cardinals this year, but it really took until last night for him to show that off. He looked good on multiple drives to the basket, but struggled a bit on his jumpers (to think, had he hit one more three...). The rest of his numbers show how good of an overall game he had. Honn basically kept the Cardinals afloat in the first half.
• Charles Rosenberg (NCC): 5-9 FG (0-2 3PT), 9-12 FT; 19 pts, 3 reb, 1 ast, 5 blk. Rosenberg was one of the key figures in the second half rally, attacking the basket and getting to the line, where he was pretty effective. He had one of the Cardinals' two final tying looks on the last possession, but couldn't get it to go.

Around the CCIW

• @ Illinois Wesleyan 79 (14-5, 6-2), Wheaton 70 (9-10, 2-6) (OT)
• North Park 79 (11-8, 2-6), @ Carthage 75 (7-11, 3-5)
• Augustana 77 (17-2, 7-1), @ Elmhurst 73 (15-4, 5-3) (OT)

Final Thoughts

Photo from The Daily Herald

First, a non-game related note:I actually got to see my old mentor and legendary former Aurora Christian basketball coach Don Davidson at Merner last night. He was there to see Millikin head coach Matt Nadelhoffer, who is also an Aurora Christian graduate ('93), and for Davidson, it was a trip back to where he once played (he played college ball at Illinois Wesleyan, and Merner was in use back in his playing days). He said he loves the new digs. All in all, great to see him.

As for the game itself... this loss hurt. The Cardinals needed it to get back in the hunt for the CCIW Tournament. If the season ended today, they'd still make it, but now Millikin and Carthage are breathing right down their necks for the fourth and final spot, while Augie took care of business in overtime, and Wesleyan was able to escape with a home overtime win. Either way, losing four of five, including three straight home games and two in a row to the bottom teams in the conference are not a good omen.

The Cardinals stay home with a chance to right the ship on Saturday, where the early game will probably be bigger (though let's be honest, even the men's game will be huge) as Wheaton comes calling. I missed this matchup last year. I'm not missing it again. Be there, wear whatever color the Cardinal Crazies say you should wear, and be loud. Beat Wheaton.

Once More Unto the Breach

With the conclusion of last night's CCIW games, we've completed one run through the Gauntlet. Due to the double round robin format of regular season play, the eight teams that make up the Gauntlet must run it one more time, traveling to the schools they hosted and welcoming in the teams whose lairs they invaded earlier.

Today, I'm going to look back at my preseason predictions, and then I'm going to run through the standings of each conference and take a look at where NCC stands in each, plus take a look at the second half of conference play and how it bodes for the postseason.

Game Notes: (WBK) Carthage College @ North Central College (1/21/15)

Final Score
NCC 101, Carthage 72

Game Summary
After moving up the rankings to 22nd in the country, the Cardinals (16-1, 5-1) opened the game with a three to take the early lead. The Lady Reds (11-6, 4-2) stayed with it, taking a lead of 6-5 before the Cardinals went on an 14-0 run to open up a big advantage. Carthage called time out to try and stem the tide, but the Cardinals would not be cooled off from outside, leading by as many as 34 before taking a 61-31 lead into the break. They had a sluggish start to the second half, but Carthage couldn't really take advantage, narrowing the gap to as small as 24 a couple times before North Central snapped out of it. The Cardinals led by as many as 34 in the second half before settling for that 29 point final margin. North Central broke the century mark with 21 seconds left, the tenth time this season that they've hit that threshold.

Key Stats

• Anita Sterling (NCC): 6-7 FG (5-5 3PT); 17 pts, 4 reb. This was probably Anita's best game as a Cardinal. Her previous career high for scoring was 16 points last season against Milwaukee School of Engineering. Anita has improved her outside shooting, but to go 5-5 is something pretty special. She only played ten minutes last night, leaving at one point in the second half after taking a charge and didn't return.
• Corrine Rowe (NCC): 4-9 FG (2-5 3PT), 2-5 FT; 12 pts, 3 reb, 6 ast, 1 stl. This is Corrine's first appearance among the "Key Stats: since coming to NCC, and part of me is surprised I haven't included her before. She's been a very good addition to the team as a good ball handler, distributor, and three point shooter. She only hit a couple threes last night, but she takes good shots, and her six dimes were second only to Bobbi Johns' eight.
• Alexis Hahn (CAR): 13-26 FG, 7-9 FT; 33 pts, 15 reb (4 off), 1 blk, 1 stl. Opposing forwards always have their best games against the Cardinals. Carthage played conservative against the press, preferring to get into a half court offense, but found Hahn early and often. She hit a bunch of layups, but was also able to hit a few mid range jumpers as well.

North Central System Watch

• Carthage Turnovers: 26. The officials spent most of the first half (and a good chunk of the second half as well) calling traveling by the book. Most of Carthage's turnovers came from these, though they did also commit a five second violation in the second half. 17 of the 26 came before the break, and the Cardinals managed nine steals on the game, led by Tess Godhardt's four.
• NCC 3PT: 22-52 (42.3%). This team has a tendency once in a while to get red hot from deep. That was the first half in a nutshell, when they hit 16 of their 31 attempts from beyond the arc (that's 51.6 percent, by the way). They regressed back to the mean in the second half, which is to be expected, but even so. Their red hot shooting pretty much knocked Carthage out of the game before it even started.
• NCC Charges Drawn: 1. Anita Sterling drew the charge in the second half, and seemed like she took a good shot on it, as she left for the rest of the game. Coach Roof seemed encouraged that she would be all right, and she seemed to be okay after the game from what I could tell.

Around the CCIW

• @Illinois Wesleyan 84 (8-9, 2-4), Augustana 71 (7-10, 1-5)
• North Park 64 (10-7, 2-4), @Elmhurst 54 (9-8, 2-4)
• @Wheaton 78 (15-2, 5-1), Millikin 66 (12-5, 3-3)

Final Thoughts

Photo from NCC Sports Information Department

This was one of the games I circled on my calendar back in July, when the schedule first came out. Carthage has struggled in Naperville the last two years and came within a missed pushoff of getting beat last year. Needless to say, blowing these guys out was enjoyable, especially since I didn't expect this kind of offensive showing.

Quick officiating note: I wasn't nearly as mad as I've been in recent games, but out of a sense of fairness, I'll note it here. They didn't call many fouls in the game, with each team logging seven in the first half. There was a little more disparity in the second half favoring NCC, which Carthage coach Tim Bernero wasn't thrilled with, and I don't blame him, given the score.

The Cardinals close out their first round through the CCIW with a trip to North Park on Saturday at 5pm. Sunday, I'll take a look at the CCIW as a whole going into the second go-around.

Death to the BCS Quadrennial Tournament

With last week's championship game, I completed the fourth edition of the Death to the BCS Playoffs since I started Confessions of a Sportscaster. And since I'm bored and curious about different matchups as well as trying to get over maybe the worst loss I've ever endured, I'm starting another mini-tournament.

In reality, Ohio State won the first real championship at the highest level of college football last week. Before them, we had three paper champions: Florida State in 2013 and a pair of Alabama teams in 2011 and 2012. In Death to the BCS action, Alabama won championships in 2012 and 2014, while Oklahoma State took the 2011 title and Stanford won in 2013. There's overlap with one team, but overall, it begged a question to me: which team in the past four years is the best?

To decide this, I'm going back into the simulator, but I'm switching the format around. With eight teams (technically seven, but 2012 Alabama is playing twice), I'm going to do this as a Round Robin type tournament similar to how the Glenbard West Holiday Classic I worked in 2011 went. The paper champions and 2014 Ohio State will play a round robin amongst themselves, while the four Death to the BCS Champions play their own round robin. The winner of each pool will battle it out for the first Death to the BCS Quadrennial Championship.

First, quick set of rules. For the round robin portion, I'm only going to simulate each matchup once, just to make things quick and easy. The championship game, however, will be a best-of-three simulation, with the "clinching" game being the official result. If 2012 Alabama advances in both pools, the championship game will not be played. All games will be "played" at a neutral indoor site to minimize the impact of home field and weather (and make things easier so I don't have to find dates to look up weather for). The team with the best record in each pool of four teams will advance to the title game. In the event of a two-team tie, the head-to-head winner will advance. In the event of a three-team tie (three teams go 2-1 in a pool with a rock-paper-scissors effect), the team with the best point differential in games involving the tied teams will advance. All simulations are once again provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's play.

It Wasn't Supposed to End Like This

First and foremost, I'm just going to let this tweet by one of my editors for UKEndzone speak for itself.

Wow, Packers/Seahawks expected win % pic.twitter.com/mpR6QaM8y3
— Ollie Connolly (@OllieUKEZ) January 18, 2015

Photo by Evan Siegle (P-G Media)

I've been a sports fan my whole life. I've been through some tough losses that bridge the emotional spectrum. To me, the 2003 NLCS remains the worst, partially because it's the one loss I wasn't directly involved in that made me cry. The 2012 game in Seattle (which I'll spare you a link to; it doesn't matter anymore) made me the angriest I've ever been after a loss (other than maybe the '99 playoff game against the 49ers where Jerry Rice fumbled and it wasn't called). The 2014 Blackhawks' run (and my dream of walking into my wedding reception with Kristen lifting an inflatable Stanley Cup) came to an abrupt end in overtime of Game 7 at home, leaving me feeling like I'd been punched in the stomach. The 2008 Cubs spent six months making me believe it was finally the year before flaming out to the Dodgers, and prompted me staying up until 3:30 in the morning watching Family Guy so I could feel anything again.

That last one is probably the closest to how I felt around 5:30 Sunday evening. And even then... it's not the same. It's worse.

This wasn't how it was supposed to be.

Of course, coming into the day I didn't expect the game to be quite like that. I was on record saying Seattle would take advantage of a hobbled Rodgers and head to the Super Bowl. It was a great start and a pleasant surprise that the team I thought was best in the NFL was playing so poorly, even though Green Bay didn't take full advantage of it, only leading 16-0 at halftime before losing... like that. I haven't brought myself to watch any replays of the game since. It's too much.

Photo by Joe Nicholson (USA TODAY Sports)

This is the kind of loss that makes you look back at certain points of the game and wonder "What If". I've found myself replaying so many in my head. To a small degree, settling for two field goals that are effectively extra points off of Seattle turning it over. Most of the guessing comes from the end of the game though.

The fake field goal haunts me. I don't know how Green Bay didn't expect a fake in a situation up 16-0 in the third quarter. Being more prepared changes the tide of that game.

The 3rd and 19 conversion... man. You have eight back to cover five... and let a guy get open for 29 yards. While I think Seattle should have gotten that personal foul penalty tacked on after the sack because it was clearly an after-the-fact penalty, that doesn't excuse failing in that defensive situation.

I keep thinking back to Morgan Burnett's pick. I had no problem with him sliding at the time, but looking back, I wonder. He had at least ten extra yards, maybe more. Take them, see if you can add at least another field goal, and you win.

The onside kick... I can't totally fault Brandon Bostick for it. He should have had it if he was going for it, but what if he blocks? Do the Seahawks still get it? How can you let something like that happen? Even so, Bostick met with the media on Monday. He did the honorable thing, despite the death threats from Twitter idiots.

The two-point conversion... how can Ha Ha, who had had his best game as a pro up to that point, not go to knock the ball down or pick it off? Instead of going down to tie, Green Bay goes down the field to win, assuming Seattle's defense doesn't sit back and play soft.

And overall, I look at Mike McCarthy, who coached not to lose, instead of coaching to win. So many times he could have put the game away, instead of letting Seattle hang around... and hang around... and come back to win. A lot of people are calling for his head today. I don't know if I'd go that far; he's led Green Bay to the playoffs almost every year, made three trips to the NFC title game, and has a Super Bowl ring. But after this game, I would put him on the hot seat for next year. I hope he learns from this game. You can't coach not to lose. You have to coach to win.

Photo by Jeff Chiu (AP)

Kristen said to me after the loss that at least it was a good game, and that losing a close game is better than getting blown out. In a vacuum, that might be true, but when you factor in how dominant Green Bay had been for almost 55 minutes only to lose the way they did... it's worse. It sucks.

So instead of planning where to watch the big game in Glendale, the Packers have to have their final memory of the 2014 season be a game they let slip away. They have things to do in the offseason, but there's no reason they can't be back to this point next year. They just have to do what needs to be done when the time comes so that they can take the next step.

Game Notes: (MBK) Elmhurst College @ North Central College

Final Score
Elmhurst 66, NCC 57

Game Summary
It was another Heat Check game early for the Cardinals (13-3, 3-2) who jumped out to an early 12-5 lead. The Blue Jays (13-3, 3-2) battled back quickly to tie, and took command with free throws, carrying a 36-32 lead into the break. The Cardinals came back in the second to tie the game at 48 and took a couple one point leads, but the Blue Jays stayed with it. The closest the Cardinals would get was 60-57 late, but free throws sealed the deal for Elmhurst.

Key Stats

• North Central: Committed 28 fouls to Elmhurst's 16. Normally, issues with officiating get put in the final thoughts section. Last night... wasn't great. By and large, I can't dispute the Cardinals getting called for 28 fouls. Elmhurst only getting called for 16... something doesn't seem quite right. It was a fairly physical game, so there shouldn't be this kind of foul disparity, especially when it results in Elmhurst shooting 36 free throws to 18 for North Central. This wasn't the main reason for the loss, but it didn't help.
• Elmhurst: Out-rebounded NCC 48-33. This disparity was much worse at halftime; the Blue Jays had more offensive rebounds (12) than NCC had total rebounds (11), with Elmhurst totally 29 at the break. NCC out-rebounded them in the second half, but nowhere near enough to stem the tide.
• Jayme Moten (NCC): 8-15 FG (8-14 3PT), 1-2 FT; 25 pts, 4 reb, 1 ast, 1 stl. Jayme had another monster game from outside, scoring the Cardinals' first 12 points on threes before cooling off as the game went on. In a game where the inside presence wasn't there again (Jack Burchett and Charles Rosenberg combined for 13 points), he needed to step up.

Around the CCIW

• @Illinois Wesleyan 76 (12-4, 4-1), North Park 66 (6-10, 1-4)
• @Carthage 80 (7-8, 3-2), Millikin 76 (6-10, 1-4)
• @Augustana 78 (15-1, 5-0), Wheaton 74 (8-8, 1-4)

Final Thoughts
The officiating was bad for the second straight game, but I can't fully blame the loss on them. The Cardinals couldn't get anything going inside, got out-rebounded, and that probably to some degree explains the 2-1 free throw disparity. This loss probably puts the Cardinals in a very bad position regarding the Top 25, considering it's their second straight loss. This creates a bit of a log jam for the final two spots in the conference tournament, but there's a lot of time left before that happens.

The Cardinals hit the road for two straight to close out the first run through the Gauntlet, and they need a win against Carthage next week.