COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 11

We're up and at it again!

After consistently good weeks, I finally stumbled in Week 10 action. Yet somehow, I still ended up with a better record than Adam. It was another close split in disputed games, with me ending up taking four of the seven and extending my lead to 13 games with seven weeks to go. Obviously, that's not safe, since Adam could theoretically take a couple games off the top here and there and steal the season win in Week 17. Can he get the comeback started this week? Before we find out, Adam tells me he has a new strategy for the week:

"This is opposite week.  I am going to state my pick, explain my pick, but actually go the opposite way.  If I had done that all season, I would be killing it right now.  For example, Thursday night, I like Miami to cover.  I will explain why, but I will actually pick the Bills on ESPN."

To be fair, he did do an entire series of picks based solely on cheerleaders and went 8-5 doing so. Can't hurt to try something else.

We only have four byes this week, so there are 14 games to choose from. Adam and I disagree on a whopping ten of them. I'm curious to see how his strategy this week works. If it does, he could narrow that 13 game gap quite a bit.

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 12

It's another early start to the week this week in the college ranks.

MACtion continues its full-fledged domination of the weeknights, with four games over the next two days, and other conferences get in on the action as well as we begin Week 12 of the college season.

For the most part, we're almost out of non-conference games, but there are always a few every week because of independents and conferences with an odd number of members. Well, that, plus the eventual ACC-SEC matchups that attempt to offset the obscene SEC midseason dessert binge. Last week, we had five games out of conference, including a pair of FCS matchups (one guess as to which conference was responsible).

So what about this week? Let's take a look.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 11 Edition

Wow, that was a tough one to build.

Eleven weeks of football are in the books, and I'm back with a new bracket with updated information. Obviously, this is just a mock bracket, but it's a fun exercise to see how the season is progressing.

The Selection Committee did a good job last week with their second batch of findings, with the top four teams matching, and eleven of the sixteen Death to the BCS Playoff teams were in the rankings. The five missing? The "champions" of the other conferences. Because I'm a champion for college football equality, I set the playoffs up such that every team has a chance to compete for the national title. Win your conference? Congratulations, you're in. Don't win it? You need a good enough resume to earn an at large spot.

So how do I decide the field and how they're seeded? I use a variety of metrics. To a small degree, I check everyone's non-conference slate using Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS), which isn't perfect, but rewards road non-conference games and scheduling Power Conference opponents, while penalizing scheduling cupcakes. To a greater degree, I use First Degree (PP1) and Second Degree (PP2) Playoff Points to see how successful each team has been over the course of the season. In an effort to keep from monopolizing the process with my own thoughts, I also use computer rankings developed by Jeff Sagarin (SAG) and the late David Rothman (ROTH) to balance it out, factoring in margin of victory... which is kind of important, and something the BCS refused to consider out of a misguided view of sportsmanship.

So with all this in mind... here's how the new playoff field would look if the season ended today.

2014 NCAA Playoff Points Rankings: Week 11

It's November 10th. Do you know where your team lies?

With another week in the books, more chaos has unfolded and changed the playoff picture. But to what degree did it change? That's what I'm here to find out after putting together the results from the past week.

The Week 11 College Football Playoff Selection Committee wound up agreeing with my Top Four, though the order was switched around a little bit. With some losses, changes are going to be made on a pretty large scale.

Before we get to any looks at the bracket, we need to run the numbers. Most of Week 11's action stayed within conference boundaries, save for a handful of games. Last week saw the first team cross 40 First Degree Playoff Points, and I wouldn't be surprised to see more teams cross that threshold today. We may also see another team cross over the 20 mark on Second Degree Playoff Points. We'll have to see.

In case you need a refresher, or if you're new to the process of the Death to the BCS Playoffs, you can view a summary of how Playoff Points work here. The short of it is, if you're familiar with how the IHSA sets up its field, this system is similar.

Let's run the numbers.

COAS Pigskin Pick 'Em Week 10

We're back at it again following a very successful week!

Adam tried a very different strategy last week with the bye and the fact that he'd been struggling. It actually worked very well for him. I think for the first time ever in Pick 'Em history, we swept our unanimous picks, and even the several we disagreed on turned out to be pretty balanced. My lead grew, but Adam made me work for it; I ended up getting five of the eight right en route to my second straight week of double-digit wins.

In a weird twist if you look at the standings, Adam is actually closer than listed. He forgot to get his picks in on ESPN, but the post was in on time, so I gave him credit for picking the Saints over the Panthers for the Thursday Night game. This makes three points more than ESPN claims he has. I give him the benefit of the doubt if he goofs on here; it's the least I can do.

This week, we see the final London game of 2014 and a renewed rivalry, if we can even call it that at this point (I still will, probably forever). With six teams on their bye, we again have 13 games to choose from. Adam and I disagree on seven of them. Can he close the gap?

Let's get to it!

2014 NCAA NCSS Rankings: Week 11

MACtion is on its way!

November is one of the more underrated times of year when it comes to football because of the fact that there are games just about every day. I couldn't remember at what point during the season it really took off, but we're here today. After only two MAC games last week, there are a ton on weeknights. I told my wife about it and I don't think she was too happy about it, but we have other stuff going on, so I probably won't be watching much.

Anyway, this spreads out the sheer number of meaningful games around the week, but again, most of the games at this point are in conference. Last week, I think I counted four non-conference games. This will probably be the case until certain SEC teams do their unforgivable late-season cupcake binges that I keep ranting about.

Speaking of which, let's see what changes happen this week.

2014 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 10 Edition

The first November bracket is ready.

As we get more evidence from the college football season, in theory you'd have more of an argument for certain teams to make the postseason. With all the chaos that's gone on, this was probably my toughest bracket to build yet.

The College Football Playoff Selection Committee released their first batch of rankings on Tuesday, and I was pretty impressed. Our top six matched, though not in the same order, and of their Top 25, 12 of their teams were also in the Death to the BCS Playoffs. They ranked some teams higher than teams I had in, but there weren't any teams on their list that I didn't consider to some degree. Their new batch will be out tomorrow, and we can compare that then.

As for selecting the Death to the BCS Playoffs field, the requirements are a little less stringent, since 16 teams make it. All ten conference champions receive the automatic bids, and I fill out the bracket with six at-large teams. To decide the participants and their seeds, I use a lot of math. Non-Conference Schedule Strength (NCSS) loosely determines how hard of a schedule outside of their league each team gave itself. This is a minor stat compared to First Degree (PP1) and Second Degree (PP2) Playoff Points, which helps determine how good a team you really are based on who you beat, and who the teams you beat beat. To keep myself from being biased, I also include computer rankings using formulas written by Jeff Sagarin (SAG) and the late David Rothman (ROTH) to balance it out.

Drumroll, please. Let's unveil the updated field if the season ended today.