Friday, February 22, 2019

2019 CCIW Men's Basketball Tournament Preview

To be honest, this year's preview is coming a little late. Last year I did it on a Friday and things were fine, but last year the CCIW Tournament was only four teams. This year it's six, and quarterfinal games were played on Tuesday night.

On Tuesday, the home teams advanced to this weekend's festivities. That meant eliminations for fifth-seeded Carroll, who finally got to the CCIW Tournament after falling just short in prior years, and sixth-seeded Elmhurst, who couldn't live up to preseason expectations.

With the North Central women already eliminated, I'm not touching on the women's tournament, which is too bad, because Wheaton College is on my way home from work and I'd totally go see them play the Thunder in the late semi. But enough about that; let's get to the men's tourney.

2019 CCIW Men's Basketball Tournament

Carver Center- Augustana College
(Rock Island, IL)

Oh great... this place again. This is the seventh time Augustana has hosted the tournament and the second consecutive year. No other school has hosted more than twice (Carthage, Illinois Wesleyan, North Central). This is a facility I have on my bucket list largely because I'd like to get to every CCIW gym at least once. It's been a tough gym for North Central in recent years, with the Cardinals having lost five straight in this building (three to the Vikings plus to Elmhurst in the 2016 CCIW Tournament). Augie didn't lose in this gym all year, their last loss coming in the Elite Eight to UW-Oshkosh last season. And if this past paragraph seemed familiar... yeah, I may have copy-pasted it from last year's and updated the relevant information.

Semifinal #1

(2) North Central Cardinals
Record: 20-5 (12-4); 11th tournament appearance (5th consecutive), 4 titles

Preseason, the Cardinals were underestimated to a degree, picked to finish fourth. But they've spent most of the season near the top of the CCIW standings, though their four losses were all pretty tough. Early in the campaign they suffered a home loss to North Park, and have had some struggles against the rest of the tournament field, but ultimately split with the group, including knocking off Augie at home just three weeks ago. Unanimous All-CCIW First Team Connor Raridon continues to be the key for North Central (17.2 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 5.0 APG, fifth in the first two categories and first in assists in the conference), though First Team All-CCIW Matt Cappelletti has continued to develop into a monster (15.1 PPG, 7th in the CCIW, 8.2 RPG, 1st in conference), and the squad has gotten good contributions from Second Team All-CCIW Blaise Meredith (10.6 PPG), Tommy Koth (7.4) and Aaron Jones (7.1). The team has had to deal with injuries for much of the season, losing Aiden Chang and Jack Bronec in December for the remainder of the campaign, and Cappelletti missed the final two games of the regular season. Hopefully he'll be good to go tonight, because the Cardinals need all hands on deck for their opponent.

(3) Wheaton Thunder
Record: 19-7 (11-5); 10th tournament appearance (2nd consecutive), 1 title

The Thunder find themselves back in the weekend dance after managing a second half comeback against Elmhurst on Tuesday night. Once again they are paced by the (possibly not human) highlight reel that is Fred Young Most Outstanding Player and unanimous First Team All-CCIW Aston Francis (nation-leading 32.4 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 3rd in the conference, 3.3 APG, 7th in conference, 44/39/87 splits, gave me nightmares by hitting numerous contested fallaway threes in the matchup at North Central), but that doesn't do justice to how good of a team this is. Second Team All-CCIW Luke Peters (8.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, probably their best defender) is a hell of a second banana, and they have great complimentary pieces in Nyameye Adom (6.6 PPG) and Anajuwon Spencer (6.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG). This is a dangerous team, but certainly a beatable one if the Cardinals can contain Francis.

Semifinal #2

(1) Augustana Vikings
Record: 23-2 (15-1); 14th tournament appearance (14th consecutive), 6 titles

Augie was the wire-to-wire conference leader, and were it not for a rough night by their best player at North Central, they would have been the first team in decades to run the table in the CCIW. Instead, they settle for 15-1 and still have home court. This team is extremely balanced, with unanimous First Team All-CCIW Nolan Ebel (16.2 PPG, 50/45/83 splits) leads the way, flanked by All-CCIW First Team members Pierson Wofford (13.2 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Chrishawn Orange (12.2 PPG), plus All-CCIW Second Team Brett Benning (10.7 PPG), and that' before you get into their rotating cast of bigs with Micah Martin (7.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Donovan Ferguson (4.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG). They're an extremely tough out and a favorite to win a national championship this year. Oh, and lest we forget... they also have Grey Giovanine on the bench. Watch out for flying jackets.

(4) Illinois Wesleyan Titans
Record: 18-8 (10-6); 11th tournament appearance (2nd consecutive), 0 titles

In a new year with a new, more imposing logo, the Titans were expected to compete for the CCIW crown. Instead, they had massive struggles early in conference play with a number of tough home losses. But they rebounded in the second go-around to grab the #4 seed, and avenged an earlier home loss to Carroll on Tuesday. The Titans are led by unanimous All-CCIW First Team Brady Rose (21.0 PPG, 2nd in CCIW, 3.7 APG, 6th in CCIW) and All-CCIW Second Team Colin Bonnett (12.3 PPG, 46/46/70). They've had some good young guys step up this season like Doug Wallen (8.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG) while still getting some veteran contributions from guys like Jason Gregoire (9.6 PPG) and Alex O'Neill (6.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG). Despite losing a pair of games to the Vikings, they're not going to just roll over.

Tournament Predictions

Going into the semis, the conference is pretty much guaranteed to get a couple teams in, but there's a chance for more. Augie is a lock, Wheaton should be in as well, and the Cardinals are actually in better position than maybe some of the experts are thinking. I'm going to call for chalk tonight, with Augie handling the Titans and the Cardinals icing the game away in the final minute to force a title game rematch from last year. Unfortunately, I don't know that I see the Cardinals winning the rubber match with the home team. Give me Augie to win the CCIW Tournament, but Wheaton and North Central both make the Big Dance.

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