Thursday, November 15, 2018

2018-19 NCC Men's Basketball Preview

Officially, the Division III basketball season has already begun. But North Central's entry into the fray was later than anyone else's, hence the delay in getting this post up. But with their season opener forthcoming, let's take a look at how the men's basketball team shapes up heading into a new campaign.


North Central Cardinals
2017-18: 19-9, 11-5 CCIW (8th), Lost in NCAA Tournament First Round

2017-18 Recap
I touched on most of this back in March after the Cardinals got bounced in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but all in all it was a nice run for the Cardinals, who finished third in the CCIW and made its second straight CCIW championship game against Augustana. They return much of the core of that team, as you'll see below.

Key Returners
The biggest loss is undoubtedly All-American forward Alex Sorenson to graduation. This means significantly more playing time for Jack Bronec (2.1 points and 2.3 rebounds in 7.2 minutes per game) as well as Jack Clausel, who appeared in just two games last season. The Cardinals could go somewhat small though as well and be successful behind Matt Cappelletti (9.4 points, 4.5 rebounds, 51/41/81 splits) and the program's all-time assists leader in Connor Raridon (13.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 42/28/77) at the forward spots. The backcourt is pretty good though, boasting arguably the best perimeter defender in the conference in Aiden Chang (6.6 points per game and a team-high 25 steals) at one starting spot. Mike Pollack will probably continue to be the lethal sniper off the bench (10.8 PPG, 47/46/88) while Blaise Meredith will probably transition into the starting role left behind by Erwin Henry after a solid freshman campaign (5.3 points, 2.3 rebounds). This will also mean an expanded role for Tommy Koth (2.2 points, 1.3 rebounds), but he rose to the challenge late last year and should do so again.

New Faces
Most of the new folks will begin the year with the JV squad, but there are a couple junior transfers who may see some time this year. Aaron Jones averaged 9.1 points on 42/41/79 splits at Lewis and Clark Community College last year, while Derek DeYoung comes over from Oakton Community College. Lincoln-Way East's Joey Buggemi is the only freshman to crack Todd Raridon's opening night 16-man roster.

Non-Conference Schedule
Unlike the women's side, the men have a healthy home non-conference schedule that doesn't consist of a single game. That season opener comes on Saturday in their own building as the Cardinals look to avenge a double-overtime loss at Heidelberg in last year's opener. The following weekend sees the Cardinals welcome Alma College from Michigan for a game that may see its start pushed back if the North Central football team ends up hosting another football playoff game. In the midst of a quick foray into CCIW play, the home-and-home with Aurora University will take place in Naperville, with the final home non-conference game coming the Saturday before Christmas against Illinois College, coached by Steve Schweer, who spent the past two years as Todd Raridon's top assistant. The road games are almost all returning the favor on home-and-homes, as the Battle of Chicago-Maple Avenue will take place in Lisle this year, plus trips to Albion and Finlandia (which will hopefully not involve as much snow as the last time the Cardinals trekked up there). The one tournament of the year sees the Cardinals heading to Las Vegas to partake in the D3Hoops.com Classic, facing Husson University and Ohio Northern University.

CCIW Outlook
I mentioned this in the women's preview, but it bears repeating here. Back in January the CCIW announced that for a number of sports, including men's basketball, conference tournaments expand from four teams to six. That gives the Cardinals more of an opportunity to make the postseason, with the #3 and #4 seeds hosting quarterfinal games against the #6 and #5 seeds, respectively, the Tuesday before the normal starting weekend of the conference tournament hosted by the #1 seed.

As for the conference itself, there's no real surprises at the top. Augustana is the almost unanimous favorite to repeat as champion as they bring back much of last year's group that made the Elite Eight for the fourth consecutive year. Illinois Wesleyan, meanwhile, made the NCAA Tournament last season and returns an elite senior backcourt with no slouches up front, and they will be right in the thick of things as well. Not far behind them is Wheaton, looking to capitalize on the final year of Aston Francis with a solid supporting cast. Elmhurst surprised to some degree last year with some good senior leadership in the form of Jeremy Ireland to go with a nice young core.

Things drop off a bit from there. Carthage has some decent young pieces, especially in the frontcourt, but graduated much of their backcourt from last year. Millikin looks to get better in Year Two under Mark Scherer with some nice pieces like Jordan Cunningham and the conference's first Player of the Week this season in Davante Harrell. Carroll returns a fair number of seniors from a group that played extremely tough, especially at home, so it surprises me to see them ranked that low. North Park, meanwhile, continues life without Juwan Henry and Jordan Robinson now having lost their best player in Colin Lake to graduation and will rely on an extremely young roster this season.

Final Thoughts
This is something of a crossroads for North Central. They still have a good chunk of the core from the past three years, but a few of the key pieces are seniors. This is their last chance to finally make some noise nationally. Without Alex Sorenson in the fold, I think the Cardinals take a step back, but there's enough talent on this team that they will be able to keep themselves in games, even against the elite in the conference. I think the Cardinals outperform expectations a little bit and find themselves not only the thick of the CCIW race, but also contending for a spot in their fourth straight NCAA Tournament

Prediction: 18-7, 11-5 CCIW (3rd)

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