Every team in the tournament has at least one loss after the '96 Packers got beat last week to reinforce my eternal hatred of the New York Football Giants. But the Packers are still the top team in the tournament to this point as the only one-loss team left. Tournament spots have yet to be claimed at this point, though six teams have been eliminated from contention with three weeks to go.
So as has been the case the first ten weeks, weather conditions from the July 14th-15th weekend will be taken into account. You can view schedules, scores, and standings here. All simulations are provided by WhatIfSports.com. Let's get to it!
Group A
@ '84 SF 38, '95 DAL 21
An Emmitt Smith fumble on Dallas' second play from scrimmage turned into a San Francisco touchdown three plays later when Joe Montana hit Renaldo Nehemiah from 17 yards out. But the Cowboys had a quick answer, marching 61 yards in seven plays with Daryl Johnston rumbling for an 11 yard touchdown to tie it. Dallas would grab the lead with a drive bridging the first two quarters as Smith redeemed himself with a six yard touchdown run less than a minute into the second quarter, but the 49ers answered right back, going 59 yards in nine plays capped by a 20 yard strike from Montana to Clark. San Francisco would get the lead back before halftime with a 90 yard rive that saw them convert three third downs to set up a three yard strike from Montana to Nehemiah for a 21-14 halftime lead. The Niners extended the advantage late in the third with a 48 yard catch and run from Montana to Freddie Solomon. Troy Aikman and company made a late push as Smith scored from two yards out with just under five minutes to play, but San Francisco put the game out of reach when Roger Craig broke free for a 45 yard touchdown just inside the two minute warning.
@ '02 TB 17, '77 DAL 13
Tampa opened the scoring with an eight minute drive capped by a 38 yard Martin Gramatica field goal, but that was all for a while and the Cowboys took over in the second with a 39 yard Efren Herrera field goal to tie it. Aaron Stecker fumbled on the very next play, the Cowboys recovered, and Herrera hit a 45 yarder for the lead. But the Bucs would eventually regain control after pinning the Cowboys deep, getting a short field and using it for a three play touchdown drive capped by a 13 yard strike from Brad Johnson to Keenan McCardell a minute before halftime. Dallas punted twice in the second half from Tampa territory, but their third drive was the charm as Tony Dorsett broke free for a 46 yard touchdown run and the lead again, but the Buccaneers had one last answer in a seven play, 69 yard drive capped by a 28 yard Michael Pittman touchdown run. Dallas would punt again from Tampa territory, but they'd get the ball back with 2:37 to play needing 81 yards. They got first and goal from the six, and handed to Dorsett three times, with him getting stuffed a yard shy of the goal line as the clock expired.
@ '69 KC 17, '80 OAK 0
Jim Plunkett threw a pick on Oakland's first drive, but it didn't come back to haunt them until early in the second quarter when Robert Holmes ran one in from 22 yards out. The Raiders would go on to punt, and eight plays later Jan Stenerud hit a 30 yard field goal to give the Chiefs a 10-0 lead. That held up into halftime despite Len Dawson throwing an interception near midfield inside the two minute warning. Dawson would get picked off again near the red zone, but again the Raiders couldn't capitalize on it, punting from Kansas City territory. The Raiders would end up stuck deep in their own territory, turning the ball over on downs at their own 12 with under five minutes to go, and two plays later the Chiefs put it away when Dawson hit Mike Garrett for an 11 yard touchdown. Plunkett and the Raiders would turn it over on downs and have an interception derail their final two drives.
@ '13 SEA 16, '03 NE 14
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| Photo by Otto Greule, Jr. (Getty Images) |
@ '99 STL 37, '81 SF 10
The Rams punch their postseason ticket with a dominant performance. They moved 72 yards in just six plays on the opening drive to set up a 33 yard Jeff Wilkins field goal, then after forcing a 49er punt broke it open a little bit when Kurt Warner hit Torry Holt for a 57 yard touchdown and a 10-0 lead. The 49ers would get on the board a few minutes into the second quarter on a 43 yard Ray Wersching field goal, but the Rams needed just four plays to break it open as Marshall Faulk got free for a 48 yard touchdown run. San Francisco made it close again before halftime with a nine play, 83 yard drive capped by a 42 yard strike from Joe Montana to Dwight Clark, but left too much time for Warner and company, as they punted and still got a score when Warner's Hail Mary found Isaac Bruce from 43 yards out as the first half expired. Wilkins added a 30 yard field goal in the third, and midway through the fourth Justin Watson delivered the dagger with a 32 yard touchdown scamper.
@ '16 NE 16, '87 WAS 0
New England has all but locked up its berth in the postseason with a nice shutout. A 61 yard pass from Tom Brady to James White helped set up a three yard strike to Martellus Bennett that opened the scoring midway through the opening quarter, and New England's defense went to work from there. Stephen Gostkowski added a 32 yard field goal midway through the second quarter, then one from 31 with just under a minute to go, and Washington's desperation drive before the half fell short. The Redskins would punt from New England territory on their first drive of the third quarter, and the Pats turned it into a 45 yard Gostkowski field goal to complete the scoring. Jay Schroeder would throw a pick from inside Patriot territory ending their best threat, and Brady was able to kneel the clock out.
Group B
'86 NYG 12, @ '08 PIT 7
Raul Allegre missed a 42 yard field goal to open the game, but Ben Roethlisberger threw an interception on the ensuing drive to blow the chance. Pittsburgh had a chance to open the second quarter with a lead, but Jeff Reed missed from 48 yards, and the Giants took advantage with an eight play, 47 yard drive capped by a 32 yard Allegre field goal. Late in the half the two quarterbacks traded interceptions, with Phil Simms' coming in the red zone, though the pick by Roethlisberger came in his own territory and set up a 29 yard Allegre field goal to make it 6-0. Midway through the third, Simms would throw another pick, and the Steelers took advantage by getting into striking range and opened the fourth quarter with a nine yard Gary Russell touchdown run. But the Giants had a quick answer, going 38 yards in just over five minutes for Allegre to hit a 49 yard field goal and give New York the lead once again. Allegre would tack on one more field goal with four minutes to play, but the Steelers had a chance. They got to the red zone, but Lawrence Taylor came up with a huge sack with under a minute to go on a second and nine, and Roethlisberger threw two straight incompletions to turn it over on downs, allowing Simms to kneel it out.
'93 DAL 27, @ '92 DAL 20
The '92 Cowboys struggled out of the gate, with their Troy Aikman throwing a pick on the second pla of the game and their Daryl Johnston losing a fumble about four minutes in. The latter would lead to '93 Troy Aikman leading a six play, 45 yard drive capped by a ten yard strike to Kevin Williams that opened the scoring. The hosts got back into the game on a pair of Lin Elliott field goals late in the second, a 20 yarder with about four minutes left and a 43 yarder near the end. But '93 Dallas opened the second half with a six play, 77 yard drive, most of which came on a '93 Emmitt Smith sweep but was capped by a seven yard strike from '93 Aikman to '93 Jay Novacek. '92 Aikman would throw another pick, and the '93 Cowboys extended their lead with a 39 yard Eddie Murray field goal that made it 17-6. The '92 Cowboys would get back into it with a 12 play, 70 yard drive capped by a one yard '92 Smith touchdown run, and they would grab the lead with just under nine minutes to play as '92 Smith scored again, this time from 17 yards out. But '92 Aikman threw yet another pick with about three and a half minutes to go, and Derrick Lassic made him pay three plays later with a two yard touchdown helped by a 26 yard pass from '93 Aikman to '93 Michael Irvin. The hosts would turn it over on downs deep in their own territory, allowing the '93 Cowboys to add a field goal to make it a seven point game with under a minute to play. '92 Aikman got as far as the opposing 40, but his Hail Mary was batted down.
'11 NYG 23, @ '71 DAL 10
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| Photo by Otto Greule, Jr. (Getty Images) |
@ '96 GB 28, '06 IND 7
Green Bay punches its ticket to the postseason as well as a first round bye in pretty dominant fashion. The Colts' offense had some good field position in the first but punted twice in Green Bay territory, and the Packers made them pay late in the first when Dorsey Levens broke free for a 33 yard touchdown. The Packers nearly doubled the lead midway through the second, but Brett Favre threw a red zone interception. Fortunately Green Bay's defense came up with a stop and blocked the Colts' punt, and four plays later William Henderson rumbled in from three yards out for a 14-0 lead. But 2:50 was too much time for Peyton Manning, who led a perfect two minute drive and Joseph Addai scored from 12 yards out to cut Green Bay's lead in half. But the Packers marched 68 yards in 10 plays to open the second half, with Favre hitting Robert Brooks for a 16 yard touchdown to make it a two score game once again, and Indy's offense stalled. The Packers put the game away with a nine minute fourth quarter drive that saw them convert three third downs and go 90 yards in 16 plays capped by a four yard Edgar Bennett touchdown run.
@ '97 DEN 35, '70 BAL 7
The Broncos' run game was dominant in this one, as midway through the opening quarter a 43 yard Vaughn Hebron run helped set up Derek Loville for a 17 yard touchdown scamper that opened the scoring. The Colts responded by punting from the Denver 37 on the next drive (albeit on fourth and seven), and the Broncos responded with a 14 play drive that took almost eight minutes off the clock, capped by a 12 yard strike from John Elway to Ed McCaffrey that made it 14-0. That lead held through halftime (though Denver almost added on late in the first half before a fourth down conversion was nullified by penalty), but the Colts got back in the game with a touchdown drive midway through the third quarter as Ray Perkins capped a seven play drive with a two yard plunge. But the Broncos needed just six plays to answer, marching 67 yards in just over three minutes with Hebron breaking free for a 37 yard touchdown run. Terrell Davis put it away just a couple minutes into the fourth with a 44 yard touchdown run, and they added one more for good measure after a turnover on downs when Elway hit Howard Griffith for a two yard touchdown.
'74 PIT 20, @ '17 PHI 14
The Eagles' win streak comes to an end as they couldn't overcome a slow start. Philly went three and out to open the game, and six plays later the Steelers opened the scoring with a 16 yard Rocky Bleier touchdown run. Philly went three and out again, and the Steelers tacked on a 30 yard Roy Gerala field goal for a 10-0 lead. They made it 13 with a field goal after a nine minute drive, and added a touchdown late in the half on a four yard pass from Terry Bradshaw to Ron Shanklin set up by a 59 yard Franco Harris run. That 20-0 lead held up through the half until midway through the third quarter when Jay Ajayi broke free for a 53 yard touchdown run. In the fourth it was LeGarrette Blount's turn to break free for 44 yards, and two plays later backup Nate Sudfeld hit Alshon Jeffery for a 15 yard touchdown to make it a six point game with ten and a half minutes to go. The Steelers almost coughed up the lead when Harris fumbled near midfield, but the Eagles had to punt, and after another Philly punt Pittsburgh killed most of the clock, which made Gerala's miss from 36 yards not a huge deal. Sudfeld missed four straight throws, allowing Bradshaw to kneel out the clock.
Group C
@ '85 CHI 26, '76 OAK 10
Chicago forced a three and out to open the game, and responded with a nine play drive to set up a 23 yard Kevin Butler field goal to get the early lead. Then the teams traded turnovers as Ken Stabler was picked off by Leslie Frazier, but the Bears gave it back when Walter Payton fumbled after gaining 46 yards to get inside the Oakland five. But the Bears' defense came through and the offense got back into it when Matt Suhey scored from a yard out to make it 10-0. Suhey would fumble on Chicago's next possession, but Stabler was picked by Dave Duerson, and Kevin Butler hit a 36 yard field goal on the ensuing drive for a 13-0 lead. Fred Steinfort would get the Raiders on the board before halftime with a 26 yard field goal, but the Bears pulled away in the third with a nine play drive capped by a one yard screen from Jim McMahon to Emery Moorehead to make it 20-3. Mark Van Eeghen would get Oakland's lone touchdown later in the quarter, and the Bears would add two fourth quarter field goals for the final margin.
'00 BAL 15, @ '66 GB 0
The Ravens punch their ticket to the postseason with an exclamation point, though their offense didn't do a ton. Tony Banks completed a few passes for first downs though on Baltimore's second drive to set up a 40 yard Matt Stover field goal. Green Bay punted from Baltimore territory on their first three possessions, but finally got a chance after Travis Taylor lost a fumble in his own territory. But Don Chandler missed a 36 yard field goal, and after Bart Starr was picked off near midfield, the Ravens added a 35 yard Stover field goal for a 6-0 lead they would take into halftime. They increased the lead midway through the third with a 22 yard Stover field goal, and got a chance for more when they picked off Starr late in the frame. They wouldn't cash in until late in the fourth when Stover hit from 46 with just under six minutes to play, and would get one more at the final gun after the Packers turned it over on downs.
'82 WAS 20, @ '88 SF 13
Washington was in control early despite turning it over on downs in the red zone to open the game. Their defense forced a three and out and the offense went right back to it, with Joe Theismann finding Don Warren for a seven yard touchdown pass with about two minutes to go in the opening quarter, though Mark Moseley would miss the extra point. The Redskins added on early in the second quarter when Theismann hit Charlie Brown for a 34 yard touchdown and a 13-0 lead. Then the 49ers finally woke up, picking up their first first down almost 20 minutes in, though they would punt. But a Theismann interception led to a 44 yard Mike Cofer field goal to get San Francisco on the board. The Niners would add another field goal before the break to make it 13-6. After an uneventful third quarter, the Niners broke through with Roger Craig breaking free for a 43 yard touchdown run to tie the game. The field position battle began after that, eventually won by the Redskins, who got the ball at midfield with 2:28 to go, and two plays later Theismann hit Warren for a 48 yard touchdown with just under two minutes to go. Joe Montana and company got to the red zone, but a Tony McGee sack on third down effectively ended the game.
@ '75 PIT 19, '12 BAL 13
A 25 yard pass from Terry Bradshaw to John Stallworth helped get the Steelers in business early, as that play set up a Roy Gerala 45 yard field goal. But the Ravens got a good return on the ensuing kick to the 42, and moved well into the red zone to set up a 24 yard chip shot by Justin Tucker. Baltimore grabbed the lead early in the second when Bernard Pierce took it in from ten yards out to cap a seven play, 70 yard drive. Joe Flacco would throw a pick midway through the quarter, but it didn't hurt as Gerala missed a 47 yard field goal, and the Ravens took advnatage by marching 54 yards in just over three and a half minutes, allowing Tucker to hit another chip shot. But the pair of missed opportunities would come back to haunt the Ravens despite them carrying that 13-3 lead into the break. The Steelers made it a one score game late in the third when Gerala hit from 36 yards, though a Haloti Ngata sack helped mitigate the damage. But the Ravens had to punt on their ensuing drive, and Bradshaw made them pay by marching 60 yards in just under five minutes and capping things with a one yard strike to Randy Grossman to tie the game. Baltimore punted from near midfield, and the Steelers went right back to work, with Franco Harris and Rocky Bleier pretty much singlehandedly moving the Steelers into field goal range, and Gerala hit from 44. Flacco got his team as far as the 35 before throwing four straight incompletions, and the Steelers all but ended it with another Gerala field goal. Tyrod Taylor came on in relief on the final drive for some reason and got into Steeler territory before missing a pair of Hail Mary's. Pittsburgh clinches a postseason berth with the win.
@ '79 PIT 45, '07 NYG 17
@ '14 NE 20, '90 NYG 13
New England's defense came to play in this one, as Brandon Browner picked off Phil Simms midway through the opening quarter, and after a 23 yard Cole Stanford run, Shane Vereen broke away for a 24 yard touchdown run to open the scoring. Two plays later Simms was picked off by Patrick Chung, who took it 42 yards to the house for a 14-0 lead. That was all the Patriots could manage in the first half, though they would punt from the Giant 40 midway through to help set up a 45 yard Raul Allegre field goal. New England got those points back late in the third when Stephen Gostkowski hit a 38 yard field goal. In the fourth the Giants tried to mount a comeback after a Stanford fumble, with Allegre hitting from 31 yards out with six and a half minutes to go. But Gostkowski delivered the dagger just inside the two minute warning after the Giants turned it over on downs in their own territory. New York would get a late touchdown with under 30 seconds to go but couldn't recover the onside kick.
Group D
'98 DEN 20, @ '94 SF 17 (OT)
After trading punts the 49ers began a 91 yard march that took nine plays, with William Floyd breaking out for a 39 yard touchdown run, though Doug Brien missed the extra point. Brien would redeem himself midway through the second quarter with a 29 yard field goal to cap a ten play drive for a 9-0 edge, but on their next drive Marc Logan lost a fumble, and seven plays later Terrell Davis found the endzone from two yards out and it was 9-7 going into the break. Midway through the third, John Elway led a 97 yard drive, using a big pass to Ed McCaffrey to set up a 19 yard touchdown run by Davis for a 14-9 lead. In the fourht the Niners regrabbed the lead as Steve Young hit John Taylor for a three yard touchdown with about nine minutes to go, and Derek Loville converted the two point try to make it 17-14. But on the next play from scrimmage, Elway hit Shannon Sharpe for a 42 yard pickup to set up a 35 yard Jason Elam field goal to tie. The Broncos had a couple chances late to win, but Elway was picked off by Tyronne Drakeford with just under two minutes to go, and after a 49er punt, Jason Elam missed from 58 at the regulation gun. The overtime period was played under the old rules as the Broncos won the toss and never coughed the ball up, using a 46 yard pass from Elway to Rod Smith to setup a game-winning 35 yard kick by Elam.
'78 PIT 22, @ '68 NYJ 16
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| Photo by George Gojkovich (Getty Images) |
@ '89 SF 26, '83 LAR 24
The Raiders jumped in front midway through the opening quarter as a 44 yard Frank Hawkins run helped set up a one yard Marcus Allen scoring plunge. Chris Bahr would add a 36 yard field goal about a minute into the second quarter for a 10-0 lead, and after forcing a punt from near midfield on their next drive, the 49ers began to make their move, using an 11 play, 80 yard drive capped by a nine yard Roger Craig touchdown run to pull within three. On the very next play, Jim Plunkett hit Cliff Branch for a good gain, but Branch lost the ball, and six plays later Mike Cofer hit a 39 yard field goal to tie the game. Bahr would miss a 40 yard field goal at the halftime gun, a miss that would hurt as the 49ers ran the second half kickoff back to the Los Angeles 12, and two plays later Craig scored again to give the Niners a 17-10 lead. The Raiders had a quick answer though, with Hawkins breaking free for a 59 yard run and one play later Plunkett hit Allen for a nine yard touchdown to tie it up again. The Raiders forced a three and out, and three plays later Plunkett found Todd Christensen for a 49 yard touchdown and the lead. Mike Cofer would follow that up with a 48 yard field goal to pull within four, then add another from 25 yards away to cap a 12 play drive that took over seven and a half minutes. After another Los Angeles three and out, the Niners went back to work to give Cofer room for a 50 yard field goal that gave San Francisco the lead with 5:31 to play. Plunkett led a nice drive into San Francisco territory, but right after the two minute warning he threw an interception and the 49ers were able to run out the clock.
'67 GB 13, @ '04 NE 7
Playing solely for pride, Vince Lombardi's Packers got their second group play win and knocked New England out in the process. They jumped out to the early lead on a 29 yard Donny Anderson touchdown run, but the Patriots responded quickly with Tom Brady hitting David Givens for a 74 yard touchdown less than a minute later tying the game. Green Bay went right back down though and Don Chandler hit from 39 yards out early in the second quarter for a 10-7 lead. That lead held thanks in part to a Brady pick, though the Packers wouldn't threaten again until the third quarter when they blocked a New England punt, but Chandler missed a 43 yard field goal that could have extended the lead. Fortunately, backup quarterback Jim Miller was sacked on the ensuing drive to end one threat, and on the next the Pats would punt from the Green Bay 40, and late in the fourth Chandler delivered the dagger with a 43 yard field goal. Both teams would turn the ball over on downs after that field goal (with Green Bay opting to go for it on fourth and eight from the Patriot 35 with just under a minute to play. A pair of sacks of Miller on the final drive helped cement the win for the Packers.
@ '91 WAS 29, '01 NE 13
Washington all but ran away with this one to keep them in third place in the group, getting off to a quick start with an eight play touchdown drive capped by a 34 yard strike from Mark Rypien to Ricky Sanders less than five minutes in. The Patriots would punt from the Redskin 38 on their first drive, and the Skins took advantage, opening the second quarter with a 36 yard Chip Lohmiller field goal. He'd add another from 49 with about five minutes to go to make it 13-0, though the Patriots would respond with a touchdown just inside the two minute warning when Antonwain Smith punched his way in from two yards out. But Rypien and company moved the ball 31 yards in nine plays to give Lohmiller room to hit once more from 49 at the halftime gun to make it 16-7. He would bounce a 46 yarder off the upright in the third, but hit from 20 later in the frame to make it a 12 point game. Washington put it away with a 24 yard Ricky Ervins touchdown run four and a half minutes into the fourth quarter.
@ '15 DEN 27, '05 PIT 13
Special teams ruled this one as the Broncos won the early field position battle and got a 31 yard Brandon McManus field goal about ten minutes in as a reward. The Steelers bounced back though, going 62 yards in nine plays with Ben Roethlisberger finding Antwan Randle El for a 17 yard touchdown a minute into the second quarter for the lead. Peyton Manning would throw an interception midway through the frame that was returned inside the Denver 10, and the Steelers would tack on a 23 yard Jeff Reed field goal for a seven point lead. A nice kick return gave the Broncos those points back when McManus hit from 35, but they almost cost themselves again when Manning threw another pick to Joey Porter. But Reed missed from 43 with about a minute and a half left in the half, and he led Denver downfield to give McManus room to hit a 41 yard field goal to make it 10-9 at the break. Reed's struggles continued in the second half as he missed from 47 a few minutes in, and Manning took advantage by setting up a 31 yard touchdown run for Ronnie Hillman. Reed would redeem himself on the ensuing drive with a 24 yard field goal set up by a 37 yard reverse by Hines Ward, but that was as close as the Steelers would come. McManus sandwiched a Steeler three and out with short field goals in the fourth, and Von Miller all but put it away with a safety with about four minutes to go.
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