I've handed out one predicted wild card on the National League side of things, and after looking at each coast so far, it's time to come to nation's heartland and preview the final two divisions. Today, it's the NL Central.
1. Chicago Cubs
Last year: 97-65 (3rd in NL Central), Lost in NLCS; 14 wins above COAS PredictionThe Cubs were well ahead of schedule in 2015, posting the third-best record in the majors while eliminating both of their division rivals in October. All they did in the offseason was add to an already ridiculous core. Getting Jason Heyward to defect from St. Louis was the biggest coup, and the addition of John Lackey will solidify the starting rotation and hopefully minimize the need for a "bullpen day." The rotation should be good again this year, even if Jake Arrieta reverts to excellent from his historic second half last year, and the lineup is one of the scariest in baseball with Heyward and the returning Dexter Fowler setting the table for guys like Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber. Next year might finally be here.
2016 Prediction: 94-68
Last year: 100-62 (1st in NL Central), Lost in NLDS; 10 wins above COAS Prediction
Ignoring all of the butthurt from stupid Cardinal fans calling Heyward a "trader" (not a "traitor") for taking less money to go to an up and coming team, this St. Louis club is still a force to be reckoned with. The Cardinals always seem to have another guy step into a vacated role and produce. They're going to need that this year from guys like Stephen Piscotty, Tommy Pham, and Randall Grichuk. Fortunately for the Cards, they still have a pretty strong rotation even with the Lackey departure. A full season of Adam Wainwright will help tremendously on that front, as the Cardinals make it back to the postseason for the fifth straight year under Mike Matheny.
2016 Prediction: 92-70, Wild Card
Last year: 98-64 (2nd in NL Central), Lost in Wild Card Game; 10 wins above COAS Prediction
The Bucs got pillaged a little bit in free agency and couldn't bolster their starting rotation, but this is still a talented ball club. Gerritt Cole and Francisco Liriano form a good 1-2 punch, and the bullpen is solid. Their lineup, despite the couple of defections, remains potent with that talented outfield of Gregory Polanco, Andrew McCutchen, and Starling Marte. They're going to be in the mix all season long, but PNC Park won't be hosting the Wild Card Game this October. Alas.
2016 Prediction: 88-74
Last year: 68-94 (4th in NL Central), Missed playoffs; 3 wins below COAS Prediction
The Brewers' pitching staff has fallen off a cliff a little bit from where it used to be. Wily Peralta is the #1 guy on the staff, and even then he's not really a true #1 starter, though Matt Garza is a servicable #3 guy. Milwaukee's lineup, meanwhile, has a lot of youth that we don't know a ton about, so for the Brewers to have any chance in the division, they're going to need a lot from Ryan Braun and for Jonathan Lucroy to return to his 2014 All Star form. I think it's just too much for those two guys to carry this team, though.
2016 Prediction: 71-91
Last year: 64-98 (5th in NL Central), Missed playoffs; 9 wins below COAS Prediction
This isn't the same team from a couple years ago that was near the top of the NL Central. This remains Joey Votto's team, and if Jay Bruce and Billy Hamilton can contribute to the offense a little more, this team might overachieve a little bit. The rotation is unproven however, with Johnny Cueto getting dealt at the deadline last summer, and Aroldis Chapman is in the Bronx. This is probably more of a rebuilding year for Cincy that may see guys like Jay Bruce dealt in July.
2016 Prediction: 65-97
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