I've previewed five divisions, following my practice of saving the division with the World Series champion for last. I've also handed out all four wild card berths for my set of predictions, so only one team today is making the playoffs. Without further ado, here are my predictions for the AL Central.
1. Kansas City Royals
Go figure: the Royals lose their ace from 2014, retool around what they have and win the World Series. Kansas City lost Johnny Cueto this offseason, but they still have some good pieces in Edison Volquez and Yordano Ventura. They also return pretty much their entire starting lineup from last season, with Alex Gordon's return being the main news from the offseason. While this record may seem a little low, and I'll pin it for now on the loss of some of the rotation depth, they're going to be the favorite to win the division, and rightfully so.
2016 Prediction: 88-74
Last year: 81-80 (3rd in AL Central), Missed playoffs; 11 wins below COAS Prediction
This team underachieved a little bit last year, but they should be back in the mix this season. Corey Kluber is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he's got good support behind him in Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar. The problem lies with early injuries. Michael Brantley and Lonnie Chisenhall open the year on the disabled list, which is going to put pressure on guys like Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor to step up their games even more. The Tribe will be good this year, but I think they fall just short.
2016 Prediction: 84-78
Last year: 83-79 (2nd in AL Central), Missed playoffs; 16 wins above COAS Prediction
Minnesota is in a similar situation to what the Cubs were in late 2014/early 2015. There is some good potential in the lineup with Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton out in the outfield, and Brian Dozier is a solid second baseman. One guy to keep an eye on for me is Byung-Ho Park, just signed this offseason out of Korea. He has a lot of power, which is something that doesn't translate right away to the majors usually, but a 20 homer season would be nice (though damn it, I wish he would do his bat flips). The rotation is the iffy part for me. They have a full year of Ervin Santana, which will help, but there's not really a true #1 guy in this rotation. This might be a year of some growing pains, with the possibility of a step back from last year, but they're not going to be awful.
2016 Prediction: 79-83
Last year: 74-87 (5th in AL Central), Missed playoffs; 19 wins below COAS Prediction
I feel like this Tigers team is going to be one of two things: either an absolute juggernaut or a very mediocre team, and I think too much has to go right for it to be the former. Justin Verlander is clearly on the downside of his career, though he doesn't have to be the guy he was even five years ago with the depth this rotation has with Jordan Zimmerman and Anibal Sanchez. This is also still a potent lineup with Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez leading the way. I just worry that this team is too top heavy, and with it I think they're going to underachieve a little bit.
2016 Prediction: 79-83
Last year: 76-86 (4th in AL Central), Missed playoffs; 7 wins below COAS Prediction
This isn't really fair to a club that had a pretty good offseason, but I'm not sure I'm sold on the Sox this year. They're definitely going in the right direction, as the addition of Todd Frazier to play third base and Brett Lawrie to take over at second will help a lineup led by Jose Abreu. I'm not sure what to make of the back end of their rotation though. Jose Quintana is a good pitcher who suffers from bad luck, Carlos Rodon is a bit of an unknown quantity, and the Mat Latos/John Danks 4-5 spots are iffy. Of course, the South Siders have one of the best pitchers in baseball in Chris Sale. If he's elite, the Sox can definitely pull their way out of the basement, but even if he can't, it's not like the Sox are going to be awful.
2016 Prediction: 77-85
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