2015 Death to the BCS Playoffs: Week 11 Mock Bracket

I thought last week's bracket was going to be hard. It's just getting harder and harder as we go further into the season.

There are only five undefeated teams left in college football, which means as I'm looking into filling the bracket and seeding these teams, I have to really look at teams with blemishes on their records. It makes things much more complicated and controversial.

So before I dig into this, if you're new to Confessions of a Sportscaster or have never read the brilliant book pictured to the left by Wetzel, Peter and Passan, here's how the Death to the BCS Playoffs work: this is a 16-team bracket. Ten spots go to the champions of each conference as an automatic qualifier to put to bed this nonsense of elitism rampant among the Power Five conferences, while the six remaining spots go to at large teams. These teams are seeded 1-16, with home field advantage going to the higher seed in each of the first three rounds. This is designed to incentivize the regular season, contrary to the morons who feel like a playoff cheapens it.

So how do the teams get selected and seeded? I use a fairly organic process, but rely on four major metrics: my NCSS and Playoff Points rankings, and then the computer rankings compiled by Jeff Sagarin and a UCLA faculty member using the formula created by the late David Rothman.

Hopefully that answers any questions you may have, at least for now. Without further ado, here is the third mock bracket for this year's Death to the BCS Playoffs.

1. Clemson (10-0, ACC "Champion")- NCSS: 1, PP1: 52, PP2: 18.70, SAG: 3, ROTH: 2. (LW: 1)
2. Alabama (9-1, At Large)- NCSS: 4, PP1: 54, PP2: 23.67, SAG: 1, ROTH: 1. (LW: 2)
3. Ohio State (10-0, Big 10 "Champion)- NCSS: 6, PP1: 45, PP2: 14.20, SAG: 4, ROTH: 7. (LW: 3)
4. Notre Dame (9-1, At Large)- NCSS: 21, PP1: 45, PP2: 18.56. SAG: 6, ROTH: 6. (LW: 4)
5. Oklahoma State (10-0, Big 12 "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 37, PP2: 11.60, SAG: 7, ROTH: 4. (LW: 8) 
6. Iowa (10-0, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 42, PP2: 14.30, SAG: 16, ROTH: 8. (LW: 6)
7. Florida (9-1, SEC "Champion")- NCSS: 2, PP1: 42, PP2: 16.89. SAG: 10, ROTH: 9. (LW: 10) 
8. Oklahoma (9-1, At Large)- NCSS: 5, PP1: 41, PP2: 12.44, SAG: 2, ROTH: 3 (LW: NR)
9. Michigan State (9-1, At Large)- NCSS: 6, PP1: 44, PP2: 16.44, SAG: 21, ROTH: 21. (LW: 7)
10. Houston (10-0, American Athletic "Champion")- NCSS: 5, PP1: 35, PP2: 10.30, SAG: 27, ROTH: 10. (LW: 12)
11. Baylor (8-1, At Large)- NCSS: 2, PP1: 22, PP2: 6.75, SAG: 5, ROTH: 5. (LW: 11) 
12. Stanford (8-2, Pac-12 "Champion")- NCSS: 4, PP1: 37, PP2: 19.25, SAG: 9, ROTH: 26. (LW: 9)
13. Bowling Green (8-2, MAC "Champion")- NCSS: 9, PP1: 31, PP2: 10.25. SAG: 37, ROTH: 33. (LW: 14)
14. Western Kentucky (8-2, Conference USA "Champion")- NCSS: 10, PP1: 30, PP2: 9.63. SAG: 53, ROTH: 49. (LW: 13) 
15. Arkansas State (7-3, Sun Belt "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 24, PP2: 8.14. SAG: 85, ROTH: 70. (LW: 15)
16. San Diego State (7-3, Mountain West "Champion")- NCSS: 6, PP1: 20, PP2: 8.00, SAG: 56, ROTH: 79. (LW: 16)

Out of the playoffs: LSU (5)

Photo by Mark Konezny (USA TODAY Sports)

This week, all conference "champions" remain the same. Despite its loss, Stanford, has the best Pac-12 record, so they remain in that spot. Other than that, it's all status quo on that front. The seedings and at larges are where it gets tricky.

I'm really tempted to put Alabama as the #1 seed and Clemson as the #2 because all of the math supports Alabama, but the problem is, they have a loss, and Clemson doesn't. Clemson also has the better win, which has to mean something. That leaves the Tide as the clear #2 seed, which gives them the third home game. As for the #3 seed, Ohio State and Notre Dame are basically dead even here as well, so I'll give the Buckeyes that seed based on their unblemished mark, while the Irish still get that second home game even though that means two undefeated teams will only get a single home contest.

Photo by Devin Wilber (OColly.com)

The #5 seed is a tough battle between my other two Power Five unbeatens, and I give Oklahoma State the slight edge based on their win over TCU along with the computer rankings being higher. Iowa's strong Playoff Points rankings keep them right behind the Cowboys however in the #6 seed.I decided to leapfrog Florida, who is our tentative SEC "champion" based on conference record up to the seven seed since their Playoff Points have caught up to the computers, so they get a home game. Then the fun begins as we get a newcomer receiving a first round home game thanks to a newfound high Playoff Point total and love from the computers: Oklahoma.

Photo by David J. Phillip (AP)

That pushes Michigan State down to the #9 seed, which is unfortunate given their higher PP1 and PP2, but Oklahoma has a win against a playoff team and much better computer rankings. From there, I need to give undefeated Houston more respect, especially after their solid win on Saturday, so they're on the cusp of a home game. Baylor is then going to remain at the #11 seed with their loss, but it's important to note again that the Bears have had a horrible schedule thus far. Their best win is Texas Tech, and their best game was this loss to the Sooners. That's it for at large berths, which leaves five conference champions on the table, and Stanford gets the #12 seedwith only two losses and far better numbers than the other conference champions.

With Western Kentucky on a bye, Bowling Green took advantage of its opportunity and moved ahead of the Hilltoppers in all categories, thus earning an "easier" first round game, at least in theory. Arkansas State and South Alabama remain where they are based on the same logic as last week: the Red Wolves have more Playoff Points, and while the computers seem to like San Diego State more, the Aztecs have that loss to South Alabama while Arkansas State beat them.

Photo by Patrick Semansky (AP)

So as I look at the biggest snubs, I don't think we're leaving anybody out that shouldn't be out. My first two teams out looking at the numbers are TCU and Navy in some order. The Horned Frogs are more loved by the computers, but are lacking Playoff Points, while Navy has a dozen more PP1 than Baylor and the computers like them, but not as much as the Bears. They're probably the toughest outs, with Toledo getting a bit of a look based on them being the only other one-loss team in the country. Other than that, maybe Utah has the best argument with strong showings in both Playoff Points and computer rankings, but those two losses are killer. That then leaves LSU, who is liked by the computers, but they lack Playoff Points compared to an Oklahoma, and the computers like Baylor more than the Tigers. I just can't put a two-loss team in as an at-large bid.

That does it for Week 11. I will be back tomorrow with a look at the schedule for Week 12 and some strong words for a few big time programs.